Monday Numbers

[sfran43]

 

[Krissykins]

Great for A Star is Born, back at #1 again. 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Venom skewing young makes it more of a weekend monster when the schools are in session.

[Tau Ceti]

Based on comps, first Monday points First Man to around $60 - 65 mil. Still very preliminary of course.

[AndyK]

 

[sfran43]

 

[WrathOfHan]

If First Man follows ASIB minus Tuesday:

 

1.9M (+45%)

1.4M (-24%)

1.4M (-2%)

 

2.6M (+89%)

3.6M (+38%)

2.4M (-32%)

8.6M Weekend, 46% drop

 

This could be dropping over 50% if the Tuesday increase isn't out of this world because it's bound to have a decent sized Thursday drop with Halloween.

[MrGlass2]

$208M for Venom if it continues to follow Logan, legs seem a bit worse but $200M is looking good.

[MagnarTheGreat]

56 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

$208M for Venom if it continues to follow Logan, legs seem a bit worse but $200M is looking good.

Daily Domestic Multiplier	Solo: A Star Wars Story	Logan	Venom*
Weekend 1 FSS	$84,420,489	$88,411,916	$80,255,756
Weekend 1 FSS	1.00	1.00	1.00
Day 4 M	1.22	1.08	1.12
Day 5 T	1.31	1.18	1.22
Day 6 W	1.36	1.24	1.28
Day 7 T	1.42	1.30	1.33
Weekend 2 FSS	1.76	1.73	1.77
Day 11 M	1.80	1.77	1.81
Day 12 T	1.85	1.82	TBD
Day 13 W	1.88	1.85	TBD
Day 14 T	1.91	1.88	TBD
Final Multiplier	2.53	2.56	TBD

* still in theaters

Venom multiplier = Logan +0.04, +0.04, +0.04, +0.03, 2nd Weekend +0.04, +0.04

 

It's pretty steady with Logan so far. If it stayed always stuck at +0.04 its final domestic multiplier would be 2.60 and its gross would be ~208.7M.

 

March isn't too bad a comparison to October.

 

Release Month	Average Multiplier	Median Multiplier	Release Month	Average Multiplier	Median Multiplier
January	2.88	2.66	July	3.30	3.22
February	2.81	2.73	August	3.22	3.00
March	3.02	2.89	September	2.87	2.75
April	2.76	2.65	October	3.02	2.75
May	2.95	2.82	November	3.43	3.23
June	3.13	3.01	December	5.45	4.76
all (1025 movies)				3.21	2.93
excludes 2018 releases
highest month in blue; lowest month in red

Edited October 16, 2018 by MagnarTheGreat

[Damianport1]

First Man did same as bridge of Spies on sunday and monday. But Bridge of Spies dropped just 26% in second weekend and i dont expect FM to perform that well.

 

Bridge of Spies did 1.8M on tue so thats the number we are looking for now

[TMP]

What's ASiB's final looking like? $160m?

[GraceRandolph]

All this talk about ASIB is getting me hyped for Beyoncé’s Lion King. Can’t wait for the absolute massive slayage. That’s REAL popstar power. 

[harry713]

41 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

All this talk about ASIB is getting me hyped for Beyoncé’s Lion King. Can’t wait for the absolute massive slayage. That’s REAL popstar power. 

Lol people aren’t going to be watching TLK because of Beyoncé. What a troll. 

Edited October 17, 2018 by harry713

[Deja23]

8 hours ago, harry713 said:

Lol people aren’t going to be watching TLK because of Beyoncé. What a troll. 

Some people will. Just like some watched ASIB because of Lady Gaga and Venom because of Tom Hardy. It is a thing that happens. 

[harry713]

2 hours ago, Deja23 said:

Some people will. Just like some watched ASIB because of Lady Gaga and Venom because of Tom Hardy. It is a thing that happens. 

You’re missing the point. TLK is going to be one of the top grossing films of the year and probably all time. That’s because it has a built in audience because the animated original is so beloved, not because Beyoncé is voicing one of the characters. 

[GraceRandolph]

11 hours ago, harry713 said:

Lol people aren’t going to be watching TLK because of Beyoncé. What a troll. 

Clearly Disney disagrees since they paid her 25 million to be involved (highest paid black actress of all time). 

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, harry713 said:

You’re missing the point. TLK is going to be one of the top grossing films of the year and probably all time. That’s because it has a built in audience because the animated original is so beloved, not because Beyoncé is voicing one of the characters. 

Not read into the project, but at BOM all the actors are only listed as voices, but they listed TLK in their Disney Live Action Reimaginings chart, so why they are only 'voices' in case you do know?

If only voices, ww BO will probably not getting a push per involved 'voices' for countries with dubbing.

 

edit: with push I mean, if the movie is done great, the voices will help as they do help with those kind of movies, but less than with actors we get to see.

Edited October 17, 2018 by terrestrial

[terrestrial]

 

Quote

Monday, October 15, 2018
 

<<Prev Day <Wk <Mo <Yr

>Yr >Mo >Wk >>Next Day

TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 2 A Star is Born (2018) WB $2,933,257 -64% -57% 3,708 $791 $97,538,822 11 2 1 Venom (2018) Sony $2,835,694 -72% -71% 4,250 $667 $144,943,952 11 3 4 First Man Uni. $1,312,670 -66% - 3,640 $361 $17,318,735 4 4 7 Bad Times At The El Royale Fox $812,725 -51% - 2,808 $289 $7,945,372 4 5 3 Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween Sony $790,307 -82% - 3,521 $224 $16,592,532 4 6 5 Smallfoot WB $625,364 -76% -80% 3,606 $173 $58,000,422 18 7 6 Night School (2018) Uni. $597,470 -71% -65% 2,780 $215 $60,157,675 18 8 8 The House With A Clock In Its Walls Uni. $279,735 -74% -80% 2,791 $100 $62,399,475 25 9 9 The Hate U Give Fox $159,601 -67% +105% 248 $644 $2,608,757 11 10 10 Gosnell: The Trial of America's Biggest Serial Killer GVN $140,000 -60% - 673 $208 $1,302,988 4 11 11 A Simple Favor LGF $136,479 -57% -73% 1,452 $94 $52,123,688 32 12 - Colette BST $130,774 -54% +53% 593 $221 $2,682,939 25 - 12 The Nun WB (NL) $121,904 -62% -68% 1,174 $104 $116,022,305 39 - - Free Solo NGE $112,127 -53% +44% 129 $869 $2,287,528 18 - - The Old Man & the Gun FoxS $102,147 -58% +45% 228 $448 $1,804,750 18 - - Crazy Rich Asians WB $95,130 -64% -76% 738 $129 $171,421,726 62 - - Hell Fest LGF $64,597 -59% -78% 868 $74 $10,515,828 18 - - The Sisters Brothers Annapurna $36,914 -53% -7% 129 $286 $1,113,201 25 - - The Predator (2018) Fox $22,289 -62% -86% 376 $59 $50,727,660 32 - - Peppermint STX $18,987 -62% -77% 301 $63 $35,184,554 39 - - Disney's Christopher Robin BV $16,461 -61% -90% 465 $35 $98,611,937 74 - - Incredibles 2 BV $16,169 -72% -71% 194 $83 $607,490,664 123 - - Mission: Impossible - Fallout Par. $15,668 -61% -77% 221 $71 $220,103,524 81 - - The Meg WB $7,563 -62% -82% 202 $37 $142,681,511 67 - - Unbroken: Path to Redemption PFR $7,018 -51% -75% 124 $57 $6,150,783 32 - - Fahrenheit 11/9 Briarcliff $7,004 -63% - 95 $74 $6,210,737 25 - - Ant-Man and the Wasp BV $6,764 -72% -67% 132 $51 $216,526,264 102 - - Bigger Free $3,384 -57% - 61 $55 $34,861 4 - - Little Women (2018) Pinnacle $2,946 -20% -92% 47 $63 $1,316,261 18 - - Operation Finale MGM $1,971 -33% -76% 46 $43 $17,591,349 48 - - Shine (2018) GVN $1,768 +5% -93% 26 $68 $310,176 11 - - Sorry to Bother You Annapurna $866 -46% -40% 9 $96 $17,486,164 102 - - God Bless the Broken Road Free $382 -82% -81% 19 $20 $2,834,674 39 - - The Riot Act Hann. $310 -34% -37% 2 $155 $73,634 32 - - A.X.L. Global Road $114 -94% -95% 35 $3 $6,499,188 53

 

 

[harry713]

2 hours ago, GraceRandolph said:

Clearly Disney disagrees since they paid her 25 million to be involved (highest paid black actress of all time). 

 

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

Not read into the project, but at BOM all the actors are only listed as voices, but they listed TLK in their Disney Live Action Reimaginings chart, so why they are only 'voices' in case you do know?

If only voices, ww BO will probably not getting a push per involved 'voices' for countries with dubbing.

 

edit: with push I mean, if the movie is done great, the voices will help as they do help with those kind of movies, but less than with actors we get to see.

 

All of this is irrelevant. The main point is TLK already has a built in mega audience. They could have gotten Brandy to voice Nala and it would still have a mega 200m+ opening and 600m+ total because.... (chorus joins in) i t ' s  T h e  L i o n  K i n g.

 

You can't really create more interest for a film that already has 100% peak interest. There's nowhere further to go. 

Edited October 17, 2018 by harry713

[terrestrial]

32 minutes ago, harry713 said:

All of this is irrelevant. The main point is TLK already has a built in mega audience. They could have gotten Brandy to voice Nala and it would still have a mega 200m+ opening and 600m+ total because.... (chorus joins in) i t ' s  T h e  L i o n  K i n g.

 

You can't really create more interest for a film that already has 100% peak interest. There's nowhere further to go. 

Not sure about 100% peak reached as to me that means it has already reached all of the audience probably interested into the either animated versions or the music something version.

To me max possible advertising is to reach audience that wouldn't watch those kind of films.

Those can include audience that follows certain artists or.... even if they might be only a few additional % out of the audience you seem to expect.

 

Me personally have no clue about TLK as in general animated movies (that is in this case the 'source material' it seems) do not belong to the movies I am interested in nor follow the BO background nor movie making details. The same counts for the majority of films that belong to the ~ genre musical. The only animated movie I watched more or less voluntarily was the first Jungel Book as it got released in the '60.

 

I only learned via the posts here about it, hence my question why the actors at BOM are listed as voice... I simply do not know any background to it beside there exists an older animated movie and a play they showed at least 10 years back at Disneyland Paris, that I didn't see.