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Weekend Thread: Hunter Killer - $420K preview

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This is probably the first weekend where I'm really impressed with ASIB's numbers. The massive pre-sales skewed my expectations and it retroactively made it's OW kinda dull and both the subsequent weekends were projected at a drop close to 35% so even those great holds didn't register to me but the hold this weekend is genuinely great.

 

Gravity's multiplier after 21 days - 3.21x

ASIB's multiplier after 21 days - 3.14x

 

Gravity's multiplier after 24 days - 3.57x

ASIB's multiplier after 24 days  - 3.47x

 

ASIB needs drop less than 9.8% against Gravity's final multiplier (4.91x) to land at 190m.

 

That would mean 4.43x so seems doable atm. ASIB might even manage to hold better in the long run due to it's female skewing nature but 200m still looks a bit too far. It'll probably need an award season re-expansion for that.

Edited by MaxAggressor
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2 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

No. WB got everything right with ASIB except for its release date, making it compete with the 2 biggest October openings of all time in its first three weekends and then having it face BR. 

Yes, it's too bad that the film flopped. It seems like you desperately wanted the film to flop so now you are trying to convince yourself that it has even though the exact opposite outcome happened. 

Edited by Zakiyyah6
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3 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

This is probably the first weekend where I'm really impressed with ASIB's numbers. The massive pre-sales skewed my expectations and it retroactively made it's OW kinda dull and both the subsequent weekends were projected at a drop close to 35% so even those great holds didn't register to me but the hold this weekend is genuinely great.

 

Gravity's multiplier after 21 days - 3.21x

ASIB's multiplier after 21 days - 3.14x

 

Gravity's multiplier after 24 days - 3.57x

ASIB's multiplier after 24 days  - 3.47x

 

ASIB needs drop less than 9.8% against Gravity's final multiplier (4.91x) to land at 190m.

 

That would mean 4.43x so seems doable atm. ASIB might even manage to hold better in the long run due to it's female skewing nature but 200m still looks a bit too far. It'll probably need an award season re-expansion for that.

November and December are much weaker than the previous 2 years. It can still happen, but I do agree that WB needs to make sure it releases on Blu-Ray/DVD in February for that to happen. Also, a re-expansion is definitely required.

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6 minutes ago, PanaMovie said:

Can AISB go over 200M DOM?

 

 

We thought that Gone Girl would get killed by Interstellar (assuming BR will open that high, which isn't impossible), but ASIB will get a 35% drop that weekend. After BR, November is looking much weaker than last year and with December lacking a Star Wars/Jumanji/TGS combo, it's not impossible as long as the Oscar buzz doesn't die out.

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6 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

This is probably the first weekend where I'm really impressed with ASIB's numbers. The massive pre-sales skewed my expectations and it retroactively made it's OW kinda dull and both the subsequent weekends were projected at a drop close to 35% so even those great holds didn't register to me but the hold this weekend is genuinely great.

 

Gravity's multiplier after 21 days - 3.21x

ASIB's multiplier after 21 days - 3.14x

 

Gravity's multiplier after 24 days - 3.57x

ASIB's multiplier after 24 days  - 3.47x

 

ASIB needs drop less than 9.8% against Gravity's final multiplier (4.91x) to land at 190m.

 

That would mean 4.43x so seems doable atm. ASIB might even manage to hold better in the long run due to it's female skewing nature but 200m still looks a bit too far. It'll probably need an award season re-expansion for that.

Its good, we kept the October record and a star is born was also a success so everyone should be happy! 

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