Wednesday numbers 3/20 | CM $4.57M

[Johnny Tran]

WW is a valid comparison because while that had Summer weekdays, CM has zero competition to this point and has an indisputable End Game tie in and bump. To me those weigh heavier than the Summer weekdays.

[Zakiyyah6]

I do think that Us could hurt the film because of the 50-60mil opening it is likely to have but I don't see Captain Marvel missing 400mil. 

[terrestrial]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

The Hunger Games is a better comparison for Captain Marvel than Wonder Woman. People are just comparing the two because of some made up rivalry. 

You called

 

Hunger Games had at least a similar relase date (2 weeks).

Hovering over the colourd lines show the sum per days into release, a fast comparison shows how much thse two made during their Wednesdays

 

 

 

	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	Captain Marvel	The Hunger Games
Domestic Release Date	Nov 22, 2013	Mar 8, 2019	Mar 23, 2012
Production Budget	$130,000,000	$152,000,000	$80,000,000
Opening Weekend Theaters	4,163	4,310	4,137
Maximum Theaters	4,163	4,310	4,137
Theatrical Engagements	30,485	8,620	37,651
Domestic Opening Weekend	$158,074,286	$153,433,423	$152,535,747
Domestic Box Office	$424,668,047	$277,683,764	$408,010,692
Inflation Adjusted Domestic Box Office	$468,450,491	$277,683,764	$459,780,887
International Box Office	$440,200,000	$509,100,000	$269,912,687
Worldwide Box Office	$864,868,047	$786,783,764	$677,923,379
	Remove	Remove	Remove

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

WW is a valid comparison because while that had Summer weekdays, CM has zero competition to this point and has an indisputable End Game tie in and bump. To me those weigh heavier than the Summer weekdays.

Nope, you can add some % to the summer days, its more the traditional cinema time, and has way more pupils and students out of school.

compare the total grosses

March

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/monthly/?view=releasedate&chart=bymonth&month=3&view=releasedate

 

June

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/monthly/?view=releasedate&chart=bymonth&month=6&view=releasedate

[LexJoker]

7 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

You called

 

Hunger Games had at least a similar relase date (2 weeks).

Hovering over the colourd lines show the sum per days into release, a fast comparison shows how much thse two made during their Wednesdays

 

 

 

	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	Captain Marvel	The Hunger Games
Domestic Release Date	Nov 22, 2013	Mar 8, 2019	Mar 23, 2012
Production Budget	$130,000,000	$152,000,000	$80,000,000
Opening Weekend Theaters	4,163	4,310	4,137
Maximum Theaters	4,163	4,310	4,137
Theatrical Engagements	30,485	8,620	37,651
Domestic Opening Weekend	$158,074,286	$153,433,423	$152,535,747
Domestic Box Office	$424,668,047	$277,683,764	$408,010,692
Inflation Adjusted Domestic Box Office	$468,450,491	$277,683,764	$459,780,887
International Box Office	$440,200,000	$509,100,000	$269,912,687
Worldwide Box Office	$864,868,047	$786,783,764	$677,923,379
	Remove	Remove	Remove

CF is a bad comp because its a pre-thanksgiving November release.

[Zakiyyah6]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

WW is a valid comparison because while that had Summer weekdays, CM has zero competition to this point and has an indisputable End Game tie in and bump. To me those weigh heavier than the Summer weekdays.

It is doing as well as it is worldwide because of End Game. Overseas it's killing it Aquaman style but fact is the word of mouth in North America just isn't as good as Wonder Woman's so of course it won't keep pace with it. Truth is because of the 50mil head start it doesn't need great legs to beat Wonder Woman in the states. End Game hype can't give a film a 4.0 multiplier.

[That One Girl]

35 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

I'm saving all my 'Likes' for tonight.

 

How can I be astonished by something when I predicted that something?

[zapzapped]

25 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

No you appear trollish because you think you know something about the box office but youre actually clueless before a bunch of people here who do know something about the box office.

So then tell me how much the film is gonna make Domestically. We'll see whos right in a couple months.

[terrestrial]

Deadline Hollywood‏@DEADLINE

Aiming to meet growing demand for video content by its internet-only customers, Comcast is rolling out #XfinityFlex, a new streaming service that will combine VOD, free, ad-supported live streams and access to subscription apps

Quote

The new offering, launching March 26, costs $5 as an extra fee for current Xfinity internet customers. It will combine 10,000 free, ad supported VOD programs, a handful of live channels such as ESPN3 and access to subscription streaming apps such as HBO, Showtime and Epix, which will be available for their standard extra fees.

As with the regular Xfinity interface, subscription apps such as Netflix and Amazon are integrated into Flex. Comcast is the No. 1 cable operator in the U.S., with its advanced Xfinity service accounting for more than half of its 22 million subscribers. Mobile and broadband have been growing significantly for Comcast and other operators even as the traditional TV bundle continues to evolve, causing headwinds for traditional pay-TV.

.....

 

https://deadline.com/2019/03/comcast-debuts-xfinity-flex-streaming-service-for-internet-only-customers-1202580040/

 

 

[terrestrial]

Just now, LexJoker said:

CF is a bad comp because its a pre-thanksgiving November release.

and for that sentence you had to have to do a full quote instead of use 'select quote'?

 

I added it, as it got suggsted several times the last 2 weeks, fully aware bout it not bein ideal per release month, but maybe as a bracket for a time

[Johnny Tran]

6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Nope, you can add some % to the summer days, its more the traditional cinema time, and has way more pupils and students out of school.

compare the total grosses

March

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/monthly/?view=releasedate&chart=bymonth&month=3&view=releasedate

 

June

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/monthly/?view=releasedate&chart=bymonth&month=6&view=releasedate

I'm not disputing Summer weekdays, I am saying this has had an End Game bump from the onset of its marketing straight through this week with the new End Game trailer that stars her. Obviously that has helped I mean even polling data shows that it has helped.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, zapzapped said:

So then tell me how much the film is gonna make Domestically. We'll see whos right in a couple months.

 

What i dont get sometimes is this passive agressive undertone. This isnt a competition who can predict a movies run better; we can only make projections that are based on historical data, comps and the holds/numbers weve gotten so far as well as other indicators such as Fandango, Pulse and Co.

 

Based on those id think Captain Marvel will probably end its run with 395-415M DOM. Maybe im right because the film appears to be playing like a typical Marvel film, meaning solid, but not great legs. Competition also seems rather strong for CM in the coming weeks.

But maybe im wrong and it develops really strong late legs like Black Panther because of the Infinity War/Endgame effect. We cant know for certain, because the box office can be unpredictable.

 

So i really dont care whos right between us.

[LexJoker]

9 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

and for that sentence you had to have to do a full quote instead of use 'select quote'?

 

I added it, as it got suggsted several times the last 2 weeks, fully aware bout it not bein ideal per release month, but maybe as a bracket for a time

The thanksgiving week plays out like no other week in the whole year. Add to that the later weeks of CF would be in the december holiday period. There would hardly be any similar pattern to compare it to a march release.

Edited March 21, 2019 by LexJoker

[Premium George]

Don't think there is any point in replying to zapzapped, as he don't want to learn and correct his mistakes.

WW has to outgross CM, in dailies and W/e. It started $50m lower but will end in the same range or even higher. That's normal. We are comparing 2.6x to 4.0x. Don't see anything bad about CM going below WW.

[terrestrial]

 

Just now, Johnny Tran said:

I'm not disputing Summer weekdays, I am saying this has had an End Game bump from the onset of its marketing straight through this week with the new End Game trailer that stars her. Obviously that has helped I mean even polling data shows that it has helped.

But as in March way less people than in June even go to the cinemas,... not t the % you seem to try balance it out. Beside that: WW was already introduced,... yadda yadda

In my POV it makes no sense to compare those two in such a way. At all.

 

I like both, I like female lead movies, I like DC, MCU, and some other franchises,... and even more non-franchise movies...

 

But if it is about BO, logic is 'god', not franchise 'discussions'.

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, LexJoker said:

The thanksgiving week plays out like no other week in the whole year. Add to that the later weeks of CF would be in the december holiday period. There would hardly be any similar pattern to compare it to a march release.

It is just there for visual. Main comp is hunger games. Terrestrial knows everything you are saying.

[MrGlass2]

11 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

How can I be astonished by something when I predicted that something?

Unfortunately the 'Likes' don't include or .

[Barnack]

50 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Nice love those annual report and them adding more home ent details trends.

 

Spending last year

Digital home ent: 50%

physical home ent: 16%

Theatrical: 34%

 

• The trend of theater being 35% of studio revenues do seem to be going strong, despite all the talks of their disparition (and deadlines annual most profitable top down), we have yet to see any shift in studio revenues since the initials bursts of the dvd bubble between 2007-2011.
• Other note, Cable almost didn't change in subscriber since 2014, revenues are even up (unadjusted).
• 50% of the population still watch dvd/bluray, more than EST/VOD.
• The numbers of movie with a relevant budget (15M+) getting made with a theatrical release in mind, was indeed up the last 2 year's versus a big down in 2015-2016, even if MPAA studio output is still not at 2014/2015 level.
• 2018 film audience was male heavy, 51% (usually the other way around), male heavy giant success like Infinity war (60% male), Black Panther (56%), Deadpool 2 (60%), Jurassic World (54%) probably explain it.  They bought 53% of the tickets.
• The frequent movie goers above 60% year's old had a massive 10% jump from 2017, now buying 15% of the tickets, old matter now more than teens at the box office. African American as well, 10% jump (black panther ?)
• 34% jump in digital home ent spending internationally (sign of China picking up there ?), WW home ent seem almost 20% bigger now than 2014.
• In dom Home Ent, digital is finally more than making up for the physical decline (those are kind of stupid, home physical have been digital for decades now), with 2018 spending 30% bigger than 2014. First year that subscription service spending got bigger than transaction.
• Dwayne Johnson seem strong on home video physical, with Jumanji/Rampage #1-2, I would imagine Rampage was just on threshold of being a big 160m type domestic success.
• Last jedi at #3 in dvd&bluray sales,, below a Greatest Showman is certainly giving credence to backslash narrative. #7 in EST as well and was not rented, being high profile on Netflix could do that I imagine.

 

Best report in a long time, with very encouraging numbers imo.

 

https://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MPAA-THEME-Report-2018.pdf

 

[zapzapped]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

What i dont get sometimes is this passive agressive undertone. This isnt a competition who can predict a movies run better; we can only make projections that are based on historical data, comps and the holds/numbers weve gotten so far as well as other indicators such as Fandango, Pulse and Co.

 

Based on those id think Captain Marvel will probably end its run with 395-415M DOM. Maybe im right because the film appears to be playing like a typical Marvel film, meaning solid, but not great legs. Competition also seems rather strong for CM in the coming weeks.

But maybe im wrong and it develops really strong late legs like Black Panther because of the Infinity War/Endgame effect. We cant know for certain, because the box office can be unpredictable.

 

So i really dont care whos right between us.

Funny how i questioned if it would make 400M. You say 395-415M. But im the troll as if what were saying is somehow different. You have a charming attitude i see.

[terrestrial]

Just now, LexJoker said:

The thanksgiving week plays out like no other week in the whole year. Add to that the later weeks of CF would be in the december holiday period. There would hardly be any similar pattern to compare it to a march release.

 

I try to provide biz-news (mergers, new...), general data, explicit data for an actual discussion, charts not simple to find or not existing in the net... and visual presentations.

I do this (or I did it in the past, and will do in the future, when I have more time again) also for smaller movies, incl movies I am not interested in, but seemingly some members here are.

As we are both since some years here, I thought that wold be clear already.

=

hence for a time. That graph - and others - are open since OW.

As already said, I added the November release, as some here wanted it to try to look into it, even if only as a bracket for a time.

If I add a qualifier, there is a reason for it, or I wouldn't add a qualifier.