US WEEKEND THREAD: Record 70.25 OW (highest grossing OW for an original horror)

[Barnack]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

I think this is probably the answer. I can almost guarantee that Us will make more than Halloween in Broward County and Miami-Dade County, Florida, or DC, or even New York, but it won't do near what Halloween did throughout small towns and rural, whiter areas with high school kids throughout the rest of America. It is market bias on my part. 

Yeah exactly this, for those a bit more niche but still big title, using a city could be misleading.

 

 

https://www.thewrap.com/oscar-movies-popular-states-voted-trump-la-la-land-hacksaw-ridge/

 

In some place in Texas/Wyoming I imagine people thought Hell or High Water was huge

 

 

 

 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think this is probably the answer. I can almost guarantee that Us will make more than Halloween in Broward County and Miami-Dade County, Florida, or DC, or even New York, but it won't do near what Halloween did throughout small towns and rural, whiter areas with high school kids throughout the rest of America. It is market bias on my part. 

FWIW the theater I'm seeing it at this weekend is giving it similar booking to Halloween and I live right outside the Broward County area. 3 screens in the day, 7 in total by the end of the night (and all in the biggest theaters except the PLF, which is keeping Captain Marvel in there). They know what the peak hours for the movie will be.

[RichWS]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

I disagree, felt substantially, infinitely more buzz. I still have zero clue how Halloween made as much as it did but among pretty every one I know Get Out and the Peele brand is much more relevant and interesting than the Michael Myers stuff. I'll admit this is a blindspot though because that's a horror franchise people here go gaga for that people in all my social circles could not give a shit about.

 

Halloween is a brand. Brand always wins. They marketed that thing brilliantly. Plenty of 30-somethings like myself (I grew up watching the original with my grandmother) went opening weekend with bells on.

[Cap]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I feel like people are increasingly catching on to the fact that if you want good seats, you need to buy in advance.

 

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

If this does indeed end up in the 50-60M range, we could have a very interesting conversation on the nature of pre-sales and how front-loaded things are becoming. Or if this is just an anomaly. Either way, should be an interesting analysis. 

See above.

 

It's not a big jump to say that as more theaters go to reserved seating, more people will buy tickets in advance.  

 

 

[That One Girl]

Just now, filmlover said:

I feel like people are increasingly catching on to the fact that if you want good seats, you need to buy in advance.

 

Ok sure, but did 5 months really change it so much that a movie might finish 30M+ less than its comp would’ve suggested otherwise if it followed that movie’s performance?  I’m sure there are plenty of theaters that still don’t have reserved seating too.  AMC is the dominant brand sure, and pretty much all of those have reserved seating by now, but that’s still only about 600 out of approximately 3,700 locations for Us this weekend.  Hell, I’d estimate that more theaters aren’t reserved seating where I live than there are reserved seating (not even my local Regal).

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I disagree, felt substantially, infinitely more buzz. I still have zero clue how Halloween made as much as it did but among pretty every one I know Get Out and the Peele brand is much more relevant and interesting than the Michael Myers stuff. I'll admit this is a blindspot though because that's a horror franchise people here go gaga for that people in all my social circles could not give a shit about.

I feel like you're underestimating the Halloween brand and overestimating Peele. The one thing Halloween has going for it is it being a legacy franchise that spans multiple movies across 4 decades. Its fans span generations and everyone has at least seen the first movie. Peele has only had two movies in the span of two years. Not trying to discredit Get Out's popularity, but it's a young fanbase that doesn't have as strong of a pull when it comes to all four quads. Also important is that when it comes to Halloween, those movies have a sustantial # of older people in its fanbase that is less likely to buy tickets in advance, while Peele likely skews younger, with a stronger interest in buying tickets early.

 

For the record, I thought 70M was the floor for Us, so I'm not trying to be some truther who thought it wouldn't be a smash. I'm just using some hindsight here.

[RichWS]

I don't follow pre-sales one bit so I'm in the dark with that. All I know is anything over 50 is a big time success.

[Djsoke]

Just now, DAJK said:

If this does indeed end up in the 50-60M range, we could have a very interesting conversation on the nature of pre-sales and how front-loaded things are becoming. Or if this is just an anomaly. Either way, should be an interesting analysis. 

I go to school in San Antonio and live north of DFW. I've seen a couple of new theaters in both areas, and all of them do exclusively reserved seating. And some of the older theaters have been switching to some type of reserved seating pretty recently. I don't buy that presales showed Us going towards an insane 90m+ opening, but I think the moviegoing experience is continually becoming more presale heavy, and I don't think it's going to stop. 

[Djsoke]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Ok sure, but did 5 months really change it so much that a movie might finish 30M+ less than its comp would’ve suggested otherwise if it followed that movie’s performance?  I’m sure there are plenty of theaters that still don’t have reserved seating too.  AMC is the dominant brand sure, and pretty much all of those have reserved seating by now, but that’s still only about 600 out of approximately 3,700 locations for Us this weekend.  Hell, I’d estimate that more theaters aren’t reserved seating where I live than there are reserved seating (not even my local Regal).

What comp are you using that showed 30m+ more for Us?

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, RichWS said:

 

Halloween is a brand. Brand always wins. They marketed that thing brilliantly. Plenty of 30-somethings like myself (I grew up watching the original with my grandmother) went opening weekend with bells on.

I get that, and Cool Eric pointed this out too, but I guess the discrepancy that led me to underpredict it is that.....Halloween movies never really made that much money? The highest ones adjust to 120m or so IIRC. H20 was marketed as almost the exact same thing as Halloween 18 and it made peanuts compared to it even after adjusting. Like would a well marketed Friday the 13th do 60m+? Because in terms of box office and merch sales and stuff like that....its just as popular, I'd say. I've never really felt Halloween as a brand to be that popular outside of the horror niche, and empirically it doesn't look like it either.

 

Also slasher films are my least favorite movies so...….I need to learn this stuff. 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[That One Girl]

Just now, Djsoke said:

What comp are you using that showed 30m+ more for Us?

 

Tracking thread, its raw numbers on Fandango compared to Halloween suggested a 97M OW

[filmlover]

Honestly the fact we're looking at a potential $50M+ opening for an original horror movie alone is pretty astounding. Speaks to how popular Get Out was (since most people are probably seeing this as a spiritual/de facto sequel to that movie).

[Djsoke]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I get that, but I guess the discrepancy that led me to underpredict it is that.....Halloween movies never really made that much money? The highest ones adjust to 120m or so IIRC. H20 was marketed as almost the exact same thing as Halloween 18 and it made peanuts compared to it even after adjusting. Like would a well marketed Friday the 13th do 60m+? Because in terms of box office and merch sales and stuff like that....its just as popular, I'd say.

 

Also slasher films are my least favorite movies so...….I need to learn this stuff. 

I'd say that Halloween 2018 was a much better movie and released for Halloween instead of the middle of summer

[Blankments]

If anyone here seriously has a problem with Us doing “only 40m+”, they need to remember it’s a hard-R original horror film whose biggest star is really only known in live-action by the GA for playing a marvel love interest (Winston Duke was more memorable than Lupita in Black Panther).

 

Yes Get Out was a big deal. Doubling its OW has always been the goal, don’t let presale  data distract you from what is still a massive win

[Djsoke]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Tracking thread, its raw numbers on Fandango compared to Halloween suggested a 97M OW

I see, but I think Halloween probably played a lot closer to A Quiet Place than Us ever was going to. AQP had 90% of ticket sales as day-of. The environment surrounding Us is way too different to realistically achieve a similar number. 

[RichWS]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I get that, but I guess the discrepancy that led me to underpredict it is that.....Halloween movies never really made that much money? The highest ones adjust to 120m or so IIRC. H20 was marketed as almost the exact same thing as Halloween 18 and it made peanuts compared to it even after adjusting. Like would a well marketed Friday the 13th do 60m+? Because in terms of box office and merch sales and stuff like that....its just as popular, I'd say.

 

Also slasher films are my least favorite movies so...….I need to learn this stuff. 

 

Oh, I don't like slasher movies either but Halloween is my lone exception. The 40-year/Jamie Lee return was always potent. They may not have made much in the past but there was love for the franchise overall and if you build that nostalgia up just right....well, we know how that can go.

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Ok sure, but did 5 months really change it so much that a movie might finish 30M+ less than its comp would’ve suggested otherwise if it followed that movie’s performance?  I’m sure there are plenty of theaters that still don’t have reserved seating too.  AMC is the dominant brand sure, and pretty much all of those have reserved seating by now, but that’s still only about 600 out of approximately 3,700 locations for Us this weekend.  Hell, I’d estimate that more theaters aren’t reserved seating where I live than there are reserved seating (not even my local Regal).

One thing that could easily change in just 5 months (more than habit), is how many theater use Fandango and how much integration/platform use it to sales tickets, that one reason those records call are so common, they buy competition/get more chain to use them over time.

 

For example:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180530005213/en/Comcast-Fandango-Launch-Voice-Activated-Movie-Ticketing-Experience

 

https://variety.com/2018/digital/spotlight/fandangonow-furthers-company-mission-movie-access-1203080094/

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/amc-theatres-joins-with-fandango-and-atom-tickets-to-make-online-ticketing-for-amc-stubs-a-list-even-more-convenient-2018-09-17

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fandango-becomes-the-largest-online-movie-ticketer-in-latin-america-signing-multi-year-deals-with-cinemark-cinepolis-national-amusements-and-cinemex-300734798.html

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/fandango-partners-google-assistant-solo-ticket-sales/

 

5 months ago fandango Now didn't exist, 10 month ago you could not buy fandango ticket via your comcast cable box.

 

A big possible one, it seem you can buy ticket for "free" on fandango if you link your amc-A list membership account to it, now it seem ?

 

All those change make comparing fandango sales over time quite difficult, would need an how many screen/feature adjusted numbers.

 

 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Barnack

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I get that, and Cool Eric pointed this out too, but I guess the discrepancy that led me to underpredict it is that.....Halloween movies never really made that much money? The highest ones adjust to 120m or so IIRC. H20 was marketed as almost the exact same thing as Halloween 18 and it made peanuts compared to it even after adjusting. Like would a well marketed Friday the 13th do 60m+? Because in terms of box office and merch sales and stuff like that....its just as popular, I'd say. I've never really felt Halloween as a brand to be that popular outside of the horror niche, and empirically it doesn't look like it either.

 

Also slasher films are my least favorite movies so...….I need to learn this stuff. 

The OG Halloween adjusts to $181.4M. Yeah, nothing amazing, but the first movie had a limited advertising campaign, and managed to gain more popularity through word-of-mouth, TV airings, VHS, etc. Again, just about everyone has seen the movie at least once

 

And when it comes to H20, it was a totally different market. Not just because of horror not being as big as it is now, but also because of the hunger for nostalgia. Look at the top 10 for 1998, and the closest example to a movie that got help from "nostalgia" is Doctor Dolittle, and even that's a stretch, and I guess Godzilla?

 

Now look at the top 10 for 2018. Even stuff like Black Panther and Ant-Man and the Wasp kinda fit the bill since the MCU's over 10 years old. Even Aquaman got a boost from being a legacy character whose been in a bunch of cartoons. Deadpool's the only one that was definitely not nostalgia-driven. It's a very different market from 20 years ago.

 

And yeah, I think a new Friday the 13th movie can open to 60M easily . The '09 remake opened to over $40M at a time when horror wasn't as big as it is now. With Halloween approaching $75M, why not a character just as popular?

[Ledmonkey96]

Deadline seems to have updated their guesstimate to 6mil.

[Eric Duncan]

Ledmonkey's right.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/03/us-jordan-peele-weekend-box-office-1202580617/

 

Quote

 EXCLUSIVE, 2nd Update 9:05PM: Jordan Peele’s Us is now looking forward to a $6M+ Thursday night. That beats the preview nights of The Nun ($5.4M), A Quiet Place ($4.3M), and it’s just under the midnight previews of Paranormal Activity 2 ($6.3M, 31% of its $20.1M Friday for a $40.6M three-day).