Tuesday July 30 | Daily Numbers

[Cooper Legion]

And I say that as a huge, huge, fan of Aladdin’s run. One of its biggest cheerleaders on this site. It just can’t measure up to what happened end of April, and I’m shocked people seem to forgotten so quickly what that was truly like.

[a2k]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

Ask 100 knowledgeable people if Aladdin will get a bills a year ago, at least 50 say yes.    

 

If Endgame will will beat Avatar? Maybe you could get to 5 if the Marvel fans put heart over head.       

 

I get that Aladdin’s expectations were lowered after marketing and it’s had a lot of impressive weeks due to the leggy nature of the run, which gives it a lot more days in people’s minds of “wow Aladdin sid pretty good today.”  But one of the Renaissance big four remakes doing 200M less than BatB is not nearly as big a surprise as Endgame being 730M above any other 2010s movie despite some of the decades worst ERs. The whole run of Aladdin will be less impressive than Endgame’s first 7 days, even when it beats Endgame in SK. There’s no objective metric for these things of course but this case is about as close as you can get.

sorry man. rare things like huge Japan and SK break-outs were needed for 1b for aladdin. 5 out of 100 would have said 1b a year back imo.

[cdsacken]

I mean Aladdin doubling EG in Japan and crushing it in SK.... Was shocking. 

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Expectations a year ago irrelevant. Pikachu had way higher consensus expectations until OD basically. As did JL and BVS

Even 2 months before release Endgame over Avatar would have been considered more shocking. People are having some seriously wild changing of the narrative about how crazy it was to beat Avatar, perhaps because it only took one week to go from  “impossible” to “looks easy” and then had a “disappointing” crawl there in the end. But for a remake of a humongous, beloved Disney property to end just outside the WW top 30 or so just isn’t close to as surprising.

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

And I say that as a huge, huge, fan of Aladdin’s run. One of its biggest cheerleaders on this site. It just can’t measure up to what happened end of April, and I’m shocked people seem to forgotten so quickly what that was truly like.

I agree overall. However one can't say EG did better percentage wise in regards to expectations. Nominally yes. % wise no. That OW was what brought me to the boards.

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

sorry man. rare things like huge Japan and SK break-outs were needed for 1b for aladdin. 5 out of 100 would have said 1b a year back imo.

Disagree, but even accepting that premise it’s still 5 more than would say Endgame over Avatar if forced to be fully serious.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

despite some of the decades worst ERs.

Isn't bad ER been going on since 2015 in a pretty constant way ?

 

22 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

BVS did horrible and barely broke even

It did above movies like Guardian of the galaxy 1-2, Inside Out, Thor: Ragnarok, Wonder Woman, Fantastic Beast, Mission Impossible Fallout, Deadpool 1-2.

 

It is quite bad for it's hype it achieved and how big it was the first days (showing how available that billion mark should have been) but I doubt outside very ridiculous first dollar gross deal that it barely broke even.

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I agree overall. However one can't say EG did better percentage wise in regards to expectations. Nominally yes. % wise no. That OW was what brought me to the boards.

Overfocusing on % to measure surprise is a mistake.    

 

A movie expected to do 10M does 50M, 400% overperformance. More surprising than Black Panther? Hell to the fucking no, since small movies getting good reception and making half a Benjamin happens plenty whereas a February solo SH movie hitting #3 DOM happens approximately never. BP was an absolute shock, maybe close to Endgame, but “only” 100% overperformance or so. % is just easy for small movies.

 

Beating Avatar Worldwide was absolutely lunacy. Much, much, more surprising than what Aladdin is doing in SK, Japan, WW, etc. You've gotta look past pure %, surprise is measured in unlikeliness.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Overfocusing on % to measure surprise is a mistake.    

 

This imo, there is some form of how many standard deviation / how it is going vs direct recent comparable.

 

What make EndGame surprising (despite that frankly it is hard for the MCU to surprise anymore), is how bigger than just the year before quite similar Avengers movie just made, how it almost pushed the definition of possible for an OW (probably did for some that would have said the maximum was an lower number than what it actually did).

 

Aladdin is the remake of one of the favorite movie of all time, staring Will Smith, the somewhat comparable Beauty and the beast made 1.26B, I feel most expected similar or even higher for Aladdin when all those remake got announced.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Barnack

[Cooper Legion]

Actually Aladdin in SK is probably crazier than Endgame Worldwide. I’ve adjusted to it now, but telling somebody that it would surpass Avatar there is perhaps even more absurd than Avatar being passed worldwide. 

 

 But definitely not Aladdin WW. And if we’re picking single markets there are some where Endgame was crazier than Aladdin in SK.

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Disagree, but even accepting that premise it’s still 5 more than would say Endgame over Avatar if forced to be fully serious.

it's on 1011 atm (with a few more to come) after insane runs in SK and Japan. that itself tells me how unlikely 1b expectations would have been 1 year back.

 

edit:

Maybe pre-markeing people expected the possibility batb numbers as you say. wasn't cognizant of that. the movie didn't kick into my consideration till the marketing started.

Edited August 1, 2019 by a2k

[cdsacken]

8 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Isn't bad ER been going on since 2015 in a pretty constant way ?

 

It did above movies like Guardian of the galaxy 1-2, Inside Out, Thor: Ragnarok, Wonder Woman, Fantastic Beast, Mission Impossible Fallout, Deadpool 1-2.

 

It is quite bad for it's hype it achieved and how big it was the first days (showing how available that billion mark should have been) but I doubt outside very ridiculous first dollar gross deal that it barely broke even.

Bvs cost was insane. Over 500m including marketing which was everywhere. Can anyone even show it broken even?

[cdsacken]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Overfocusing on % to measure surprise is a mistake.    

 

A movie expected to do 10M does 50M, 400% overperformance. More surprising than Black Panther? Hell to the fucking no, since small movies getting good reception and making half a Benjamin happens plenty whereas a February solo SH movie hitting #3 DOM happens approximately never. BP was an absolute shock, maybe close to Endgame, but “only” 100% overperformance or so. % is just easy for small movies.

 

Beating Avatar Worldwide was absolutely lunacy. Much, much, more surprising than what Aladdin is doing in SK, Japan, WW, etc. You've gotta look past pure %, surprise is measured in unlikeliness.

I agree which is why I said overall I have EG above. Speaking of black panther man I would have loved to be around for that run on the boards. Came out in February!

[Cooper Legion]

What it really boils down to is this: Finding the cash to go from mid-high hundreds to low billions is not that hard. Plenty of movies have done it historically just by being well received. Finding the cash to go from 2 to 2.8 is squeezing blood from a stone. Nobody with a real understanding of what 2.8 means thought it was possible until several weeks into the presale insanity, and taking expectations from so close to release and after a bunch of hard data to measure surprise would be silly for the same reason it’s silly to take expectations from a month after release to measure surprise.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Bvs cost was insane. Over 500m including marketing which was everywhere. Can anyone even show it broken even?

? Source 

 

Deadline estimated 160M marging, with 55M going to the talent and 105M in profit to the studio:

https://deadline.com/2017/03/batman-v-superman-box-office-profit-2016-1202049201/

 

But they used a small/regular 407M budget + WW P&A estimate.

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

it's on 1011 atm (with a few more to come) after insane runs in SK and Japan. that itself tells me how unlikely 1b expectations would have been 1 year back.

Pretty sure many were expecting $1 billion WW for Aladdin a full year back. After Beauty and the Beast grossed $1.26 billion, $1 billion for Aladdin seemed very likely if it was well-received. Something like $400M DOM/$600M OS would have been completely reasonable back then. It was the second most successful Disney Renaissance film after Lion King after all. It wasn't until the first trailer dropped that expectations started dropping significantly. 

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Pretty sure many were expecting $1 billion WW for Aladdin a full year back. After Beauty and the Beast grossed $1.26 billion, $1 billion for Aladdin seemed very likely if it was well-received. Something like $400M DOM/$600M OS would have been completely reasonable back then. It was the second most successful Disney Renaissance film after Lion King after all. It wasn't until the first trailer dropped that expectations started dropping significantly. 

sounds fair, i accept that. 

[Cooper Legion]

I don’t wanna be arguing Aladdin vs Endgame anyway. Two best and favorite runs of 2019 🥰    

 

Not that we we haven’t had some pretty nice ones outside of that — CM, Upside, JW3, TS4...

Edited August 1, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

F&F is China bully. Minus China, F&F8 was $620mn Approx only. Jurassic World is bigger franchise overseas - China. 

Finally! Something positive about the best franchise in the world has been typed about by your cold & cruel fingers.

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

? Source 

 

Deadline estimated 160M marging, with 55M going to the talent and 105M in profit to the studio:

https://deadline.com/2017/03/batman-v-superman-box-office-profit-2016-1202049201/

 

But they used a small/regular 407M budget + WW P&A estimate.

It was 250 for just production. Ads were everywhere. I don't buy 407m for a second. 

 

Granted if 100m net is accurate I can see why they didn't make more movies. Justice league did horrendous and synder set back wb quite a bit. He really screwed the pooch.

Edited August 1, 2019 by cdsacken