Tuesday July 30 | Daily Numbers

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yeah that's a little better. Hoping for that kind of a weekend for TLK.

considering last Thu fell 12% without big competition I feel close to 20% drop cannot be ruled out this Thu. With decent Thu high-30s is feasible.

[JimiQ]

I know Aladdin was supposed to fail after first teaser, but I still think real winner of the summer is TS4

[cannastop]

Well that sure is a big Tuesday jump for The Lion King.

[meriodejaneiro]

5 hours ago, sfran43 said:

I don't know why I thought at least 10 movies grossed $1B+ overseas. Instead, we only have 8. Impressive that 2 of them belongs to the F&F franchise!

 

Row	Rank	Title	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year^
1	2	Avatar	Fox	$2,789.7	$760.5	27.3%	$2,029.2	72.7%	2009^
2	1	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$2,793.6	$856.9	30.7%	$1,936.7	69.3%	2019
3	3	Titanic	Par.	$2,187.5	$659.4	30.1%	$1,528.1	69.9%	1997^
4	5	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$2,048.4	$678.8	33.1%	$1,369.5	66.9%	2018
5	8	Furious 7	Uni.	$1,516.0	$353.0	23.3%	$1,163.0	76.7%	2015
6	4	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$2,068.2	$936.7	45.3%	$1,131.6	54.7%	2015
7	6	Jurassic World	Uni.	$1,671.7	$652.3	39.0%	$1,019.4	61.0%	2015
8	17	The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	$1,236.0	$226.0	18.3%	$1,010.0	81.7%	2017

Don't worry. TLK and Frozen2 will come to the rescue soon enough.

[CoolK]

5 hours ago, JB33 said:

These 30-something forecasts for TLK make me depressed. 30-something is not what I first imagined for its 3rd weekend. Again, I know weekends are slightly depressed in the summer but come on. This is dropping like a superhero movie. Nobody can deny that. The only difference is it does in fact have the benefit of inflated weekdays, but even with that I still thought its weekends would be a little bigger. I mean, even The Dark Knight Rises had a $35.7M 3rd weekend. I thought being a 4-quad family film would be the difference. Guess not.

 

Not saying I'm surprised. though, given reception. Just disappointed. Flame away.

TLK will clear 1.5bn even with the lukewarm reception it got....its doing very WELL

[jedijake]

$30-something  weekend for TLK would be absolutely horrible. No questions asked. Sure, it's doing well overall. But that number for the third weekend just means it's dropping like a brick. "Good" doesn't mean much when the movie drops like that so fast. BvS also did "well" and dropped like a brick and we see the legacy THAT movie had. Same with Suicide Squad and, for all intents and purposes, AOU and TLJ.  Conversely, Rogue One and Dark Knight both hit $500 million and have very powerful legacies.

 

But on the positive side, HPDH2 dropped even worse and has had a strong legacy behind it.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, JB33 said:

F&F are monster overseas

F&F is China bully. Minus China, F&F8 was $620mn Approx only. Jurassic World is bigger franchise overseas - China. 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, sfran43 said:

I don't know why I thought at least 10 movies grossed $1B+ overseas. Instead, we only have 8. Impressive that 2 of them belongs to the F&F franchise

More surprising is the fact that Disney ain't dominating it truly, yet.

 

With just puny 3 out of 8, Universal has 3 and Fox had 2.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[cannastop]

4 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Don't worry. TLK and Frozen2 will come to the rescue soon enough.

Hmm. I dunno about Frozen 2. Which markets do you think it could increase from the original in?

[Taruseth]

15 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

More surprising is the fact that Disney ain't dominating it truly, yet.

 

With just puny 3 out of 8, Universal has 3 and Fox had 2.

Big differnce though is that Fox has the two movies that aren't from this decade and 2 out of the Top 4.

Also that difference between the top 4 and the bottom 4 is that the top did amazing everywhere while the bottom 4 did well only in parts. Like F&F did insanely well in China and still good in Europe but not insanely well. For TFA it's the opposite, the did insanely well in Europe but only good in China. JW is kinda complicated, considering it kinda did well everywhere but, maybe I am wrong, that movie did well everywhere but had no markets braking records.

 

Disney seems to be more dependent on DOM und Europe (outside of Marvel).

 

Considering the dominance they have domestically is pretty insane. My favourite chart just because of how ridiculous it looks is probably still Top Saturdays cause that's Disney (and Jurassic World). And I still haven't gotten over that the best Saturday outside of those is bloody Catching Fire.

[cdsacken]

5 hours ago, JimiQ said:

I know Aladdin was supposed to fail after first teaser, but I still think real winner of the summer is TS4

Nah Aladdin. Better legs and beat all expectations. TS4 didn't despite perfect reviews.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

$30-something  weekend for TLK would be absolutely horrible. No questions asked. Sure, it's doing well overall. But that number for the third weekend just means it's dropping like a brick. "Good" doesn't mean much when the movie drops like that so fast. BvS also did "well" and dropped like a brick and we see the legacy THAT movie had. Same with Suicide Squad and, for all intents and purposes, AOU and TLJ.  Conversely, Rogue One and Dark Knight both hit $500 million and have very powerful legacies.

 

But on the positive side, HPDH2 dropped even worse and has had a strong legacy behind it.

BVS did horrible and barely broke even. Set up JL to fail massively.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Nah Aladdin. Better legs and beat all expectations. TS4 didn't despite perfect reviews.

Aladdin is the winner of the year imo. Bigger surprise than EG's over-performance.

[cdsacken]

8 minutes ago, a2k said:

Aladdin is the winner of the year imo. Bigger surprise than EG's over-performance.

Omg someone higher on Aladdin than me! Not sure I agree (#1 record is such a huge feat) but I love the respect for a movie that was better imo.

 

 

I will say this the consensus for EG was at least 2B and it beat the consensus by 6-800m. Aladdin consensus was a bit over 500m doubling it.

Edited August 1, 2019 by cdsacken

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I think all 3 exceeded most long-term pre-release expectations (TS4 really only shot up at the end), but yeah, Aladdin probably beat expectations by the most on a % basis.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Omg someone higher on Aladdin than me! Not sure I agree (#1 record is such a huge feat) but I love the respect for a movie that was better imo.

 

 

I will say this the consensus for EG was at least 2B and it beat the consensus by 6-800m. Aladdin consensus was a bit over 500m doubling it.

EG beat my expectations by 30-40% (depending on dom or os) and Aladdin by 90-100%+.

Edited August 1, 2019 by a2k

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

I think all 3 exceeded most long-term pre-release expectations (TS4 really only shot up at the end), but yeah, Aladdin probably beat expectations by the most on a % basis.

No probably about it. 

Aladdin

 

 

 

EG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TS4( consensus was 140 opening with 420 or a bit less domestic)

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, a2k said:

Bigger surprise than EG's over-performance.

Ask 100 knowledgeable people if Aladdin will get a billie a year ago, at least 50 say yes.    

 

If Endgame will will beat Avatar? Maybe you could get to 5 if the Marvel fans put heart over head.       

 

I get that Aladdin’s expectations were lowered after marketing and it’s had a lot of impressive weeks due to the leggy nature of the run, which gives it a lot more days in people’s minds of “wow Aladdin sid pretty good today.”  But one of the Renaissance big four remakes doing 200M less than BatB is not nearly as big a surprise as Endgame being 730M above any other 2010s movie despite some of the decades worst ERs. The whole run of Aladdin will be less impressive than Endgame’s first 7 days, even when it beats Endgame in SK. There’s no objective metric for these things of course but this case is about as close as you can get.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

BvS also did "well" and dropped like a brick and we see the legacy THAT movie had. Same with Suicide Squad and, for all intents and purposes, AOU and TLJ.  Conversely, Rogue One and Dark Knight both hit $500 million and have very powerful legacies.

 

Rogue One has a very powerful legacy but not Suicide Squad, I am not sure how to evaluate that ?

 

https://www.imdb.com/search/title/?year=2008&title_type=feature&

https://www.imdb.com/search/title/?year=2016&title_type=feature&

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%2Fg%2F11b7ck8r7s,%2Fm%2F0btpm6,%2Fm%2F012dwdjr

 

But considering Suicide Squad is getting a sequel and spin-off while Rogue One is pretty much one and done (or was there some tv project about it on Disney+ ?) it is based on what ?

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Ask 100 knowledgeable people if Aladdin will get a bills a year ago, at least 50 say yes.    

 

If Endgame will will beat Avatar? Maybe you could get to 5 if the Marvel fans put heart over head.       

 

I get that Aladdin’s expectations were lowered after marketing and it’s had a lot of impressive weeks due to the leggy nature of the run, which gives it a lot more days in people’s minds of “wow Aladdin sid pretty good today.”  But one of the Renaissance big four remakes doing 200M less than BatB is not nearly as big a surprise as Endgame being 730M above any other 2010s movie despite some of the decades worst ERs. The whole run of Aladdin will be less impressive than Endgame’s first 7 days, even when it beats Endgame in SK. There’s no objective metric for these things of course but this case is about as close as you can get.

Expectations a year ago irrelevant. Pikachu had way higher consensus expectations until OD basically. As did JL and BVS

 

less than .1% predicted above 600m for Aladdin ww Check the clubs. Percentage wise it's Aladdin. Nominally and in the grand scheme of things I give it to EG. Knocking down Avatar felt impossible for a long tilon. Felt like Titanic before Avatar.

 

Edited August 1, 2019 by cdsacken