Eric's Top 10 Box Office Stories of Summer 2019

[Eric Duncan]

Last year, I made a Top 10 list talking about my personal favorite stories from last year. And that was a fun thing to do last year, so might as well do it again.

 

This summer was rough for every studio not named Disney (and I guess Sony). But this season was still an entertaining one, with all the highs, lows, and intriguing developments one can expect every summer, so why not look back on some of the stories that excited me the most this year.

 

As always, with 10 stories, I can't talk about everything, so if you're wondering "Where's this? Where's that?", either it doesn't interest me, or I had to cut it out. I'm also more biased towards domestic than international stories, and so on. And when it comes to rankings, don't take this movie being above another super seriously, because these rankings aren't that strict. And hey, you can make your own list here too if you think I missed something.

 

With that out of the way...

Honorable Mention #1: The Lion King does its job, and does its job well. With incredible visuals, an iconic original classic, and the greatness that is Beyonce, expectations were crazy high for this Disney remake, and it paid off. It joined numerous top 10s, including domestic and global openings, Disney openings, and even animated openings, resulting in an astonishing $1.5B worldwide gross and counting, with $1B alone of that money coming from OS markets. The Lion King's now currently in the top 10 highest-grossing films period, is the biggest animated movie ever, and is Disney's biggest movie ever that isn't from the Marvel or Star Wars brands.

 

So, why is it an honorable mention? Well, when it comes to lists like these, the stuff that really compels me is the surprise factor. If you just do what’s expected, what makes your run so compelling? And in this film’s case, it...did what everyone expected, and didn’t do anything that crazy. It opened to expectations, its run was average, and its final total was about what people expected. For some people, it was even below expectations. It’s weird to say that a film that's expected to gross on par with Jurassic World would be an “eh” story, but considering we live in a time where Disney does nothing but make hit after hit after hit, I guess that says something.

 

Honorable Mention #2: Ne Zha breaks Chinese box office records. My understanding of Chinese film and box office is very rusty, so I can’t really say much about this movie. But it is a big story, and it does deserve some discussion, so might as well put it in as an honorable mention. Based on the famous Chinese story, Ne Zha managed to break numerous box office records in its home country of China. The film opened to 91.5M, making it the biggest opening in China for an animated feature.

 

Already impressive for a first-time director and animation studio, but the film’s success continued with an astonishing 670M in China alone, already making it the highest-grossing non-US animated film ever, as well as making it the second highest-grossing Chinese film ever. It’ll be interesting to see what the future of Chinese animation holds and whether the market will manage to break out into other territories any time in the future.

 

10. So much horror, no real hit. A summer movie season isn’t complete without some horror movies thrown into the mix. But for this year, studios went gung-ho in the genre, with no less than 10 through May and August. There was even a stretch between Child’s Play and Crawl and between Scary Stories and Don’t Let Go where a new horror came out every week. But despite all of the offerings, none of them really broke out, at least compared to previous years. Brightburn was in and out of theaters after a couple of weeks, Ma opened okay, but nothing astonishing, Child’s Play failed to capitalize on its clever release date and marketing campaign, Annabelle Comes Home hit a franchise low, Midsommar did half of Hereditary, Crawl was poorly marketed, 47 Meters Down: Uncaged was a non-entity, Don’t Let Go did zilch on Labor Day. The only two real “break outs” were Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark doing solid business, and Ready or Not performing better than most horror/comedy hybrids.

 

Whether it be oversaturation or unappealing product, there was no real horror smash, and the two that really overperformed didn’t really cause that much excitement compared to the likes of Don’t Breathe or even Hereditary. Next summer looks smaller in terms of horror product, but with properties like Saw, Candyman and The Purge, things should hopefully be better.

 

9. Detective Pikachu does okay...but should it have done more? When the initial teaser trailer for Pokemon Detective Pikachu debuted, the Internet lost its mind. So many cameos, an offbeat but fun premise, and a cute as a button title character made the film seem like it was destined to be a hit. But a lot of people thought this wasn’t just going to be a hit, but a monster hit. A hit that would make it be for video game movies what the 2002 Spider-Man was for comic book movies. Trailer views and reactions were incredible, it tapped into 90s nostalgia, it’s the most financially successful brand of all time, it had appeal to kids and adults. This had every reason to be a billion-dollar hit.

 

And yet...it wasn’t. It did decent, with about $145M in the States and 430M worldwide, but with all the buzz and hype in the beginning, it’s still weird to see that the film couldn’t even beat Warcraft’s worldwide total. Again, it’s a fine gross, but it feels like Warner Bros. and Legendary expected more from this feature, so just barely breaking even isn’t all that special, especially for something that’s supposed to start a film franchise.

 

Maybe it was the “meh” reviews. Maybe it was Avengers sucking up all the attention. Maybe it was really only appealing to Pokemon fans and nobody else. But it’s so bizarre to think that something that had so much going for it on paper just did so painfully average. But weirdly enough, this film’s “fine, but could have been better” box office permeated through just about every non-Disney release this summer. I guess it was, in a way, a sign of things to come.

 

 

8. The Farewell snatches Thanos’ wig. Out of all the records Endgame broke this year, one of them managed to be beaten in just a couple months. Thanks to rave reviews and A24’s strong marketing, The Farewell’s PTA on its opening weekend was 88.9K from 4 theaters, which was about 12K more than Endgame’s PTA, and is so far the highest PTA of the year. Its following run was okay with it expected to only finish at about 20M or so, but that PTA was a big feather in the film’s cap. Not only did it help generate headlines and boost the film’s awards chances, but it also gave a boost to rising star and lead Awkwafina and director Lulu Wang.

 

Awkwfina's already seen great success last year with Ocean’s 8 and Crazy Rich Asians, but this debut showcases her growing fanbase and how excited people are to see her on film. Her next projects include Jumanji: The Next Level, The Spongebob Movie, Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon, Marvel’s Shang-Chi, and the upcoming Little Mermaid remake, all of which look like surefire hits. As for Wang, not only is this film’s success good potential for her awards campaign, but also for new projects, which are certain to come very soon. Between her, as well as both Cathy Yan and Chloe Zhao garnering DC and Marvel work, it’s been a good year for Chinese-American women in the director’s chair. And considering how mediocre the independent box office scene has been this year, it’s good to know at least one studio knows how to get that market excited.

 

7. Dark Phoenix killed X-Men and maybe even Fox. We’ve had plenty of box office flops, but how many movies can claim they caused a complete overhaul in a studio’s strategy and film releases? Through many different factors, from bad reviews, to constant delays, to its fanbase getting more excited for the reboot than the final film of the franchise, Dark Phoenix’s box office was so bad, its final domestic total of 65.8M was lower than the majority of its franchise’s opening weekends. And while a big money loser isn’t all that special, its failure was so bad, it made Disney reconfigure their entire film strategy.

 

At an investor’s call, Disney CEO Bob Iger mentioned that the main reason Disney failed to meet quarterly expectations was due to films from the Fox label. That included stuff like Stuber and The Art of Racing in the Rain, but Dark Phoenix was particularly singled out as the main culprit for hurting Disney’s quarterly earnings by a significant amount. And this is the year when Disney had all of their movies that summer gross a billion. Iger has also mentioned they were planning on retooling Fox and their future productions due to these flops. More specifically, Fox will only produce about 10 movies a year, with about half of them being theatrical, and likely most, if not all, being franchise fare like Avatar and Planet of the Apes.

 

At least Solo only caused a slowdown of Star Wars movies. And yeah, Disney was probably gonna cut down on releases anyway, and they were just using Dark Phoenix as a scapegoat. But the idea of an X-Men movie killing off a major movie studio is still a pretty funny idea, and still shows just how much of a low note the franchise went out on.

 

 

6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood shows adults like movies too! This summer was an off one for counterprogramming. Rocketman and Yesterday did okay, if unmemorable business, while stuff like Long Shot and Shaft failed to connect. But when it comes to summer movies that didn’t involve big effects or a popular IP, Quentin Tarantino gave us Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. With three big movie stars, fun trailers, a unique setting, and a buzzy Cannes debut, the film saw a strong 40M opening. And with good word of mouth, as well as the Bruce Lee controversy keeping it in the conversation, the film continued to have good legs throughout the rest of August, as Hollywood is now Tarantino’s second-biggest movie ever, and is expected to hit 140M at least here in the states, and about 350M worldwide.

 

What Once Upon A Time in Hollywood shows is that people will see stuff that isn’t a franchise or has a big budget on the big screen, so long as you have a strong hook and a compelling reason to make people want to see it. By doing so, while you may not hit a billion, you can still see great success and respect in the industry. And while all the non-Disney studios seem to be trying it in some capacity this fall, Sony seems like it will be another victor here again, as both A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Little Women look to also be non-franchise fare that will be a slam dunk at the box office, especially with the adult market that has often been neglected by Hollywood. In a way, Sony might find itself as the one studio that knows how to blend blockbuster material with adult-oriented movies in their slates. All hail Tom Rothman! @MrGamer

 

5. Toy Story 4 “underperforms”, still hits a billion. With strong initial presales and rave reviews, it seemed like Toy Story 4 had potential to do incredible business, with a big 150M+ opening and maybe even half a billion domestically. So when it opened to only 120M, below Shrek the Third no less, while still very impressive, it felt like some money was left on the table.

 

But, as always, Disney had the last laugh, as the Pixar sequel managed to have phenomenal legs through the coming weeks, consistently outpacing Toy Story 3, and is expected to end with about 435M, making it the fifth-highest animated movie domestically, and the biggest in the franchise. Worldwide was no slouch, especially in Mexico and Japan, with the film hitting a billion and expected to finish about on par with Toy Story 3, which is very impressive for a fourth film.

 

A Toy Story 5 will probably come out in about 10 years, but for now, Toy Story 4 is supposed to lead into a new television show and short film, both to premiere on Disney+, and should see decent success. Either way, Toy Story 4 is a perfect showcase of the Toy Story and Pixar brand, and how much trust and love people have for them.

 

 

4. Secret Life of Pets 2 gets neutered. This was an awful summer for sequels nobody was really clamoring for. Godzilla: King of the Monsters, Men in Black International, Dark Phoenix. But I feel like this movie in particular really defined the sequelitis of this summer. When The Secret Life of Pets broke box office records in 2016, Universal and Illumination understandably greenlit a sequel, and things seemed promising. People enjoyed the first film, the Illumination brand is a trustworthy one for families and general audiences, and the film’s initial marketing, promising a new trailer a month, sometimes even a couple weeks, was an example of Illumination’s top-tier marketing. How could this not be a hit?

 

But as the months went on, marketing started to weaken and interest started to get smaller and smaller and smaller. And sure enough, the film ended up opening to only 45M, which was less than half of what the first movie opened to back in 2016. And while legs were pretty good, it still only did about 158M, which is, again, less than half of the first movie. Worldwide was about 421.1M, another less than half for this movie.

Chalk it up to mediocre trailers, intense competition from Disney, or the original movie not being that beloved in the first place. Whatever the reason, for a film that followed up such a huge success, and from a reliable hitmaker like Illumination, it’s pretty strange to see a movie that had so much going for it whimper out like this. A third film is unlikely to pop up, and while it was profitable by a comfortable margin, it’s unlikely Universal is satisfied with a 400M sequel to an 850M original. We'll see if next summer's Minions sequel will be any better.

 

3. John Wick 3 hits another high. John Wick is probably the most fascinating franchise to watch, as it’s a true anomaly when it comes to blockbuster cinema. Starting out as a low-budget Keanu Reeves vehicle, the first John Wick did average at the box office, but grew its audience through cable reruns and home video sales, resulting in its sequel more than doubling from its predecessor, and its threequel, Parabellum, gaining a plum summer slot.

 

Putting it in mid-May, surrounded by brands and properties with seemingly more clout than Wick, the risk paid off tremendously. Thanks to stellar reviews, a relatively empty marketplace for action-oriented fare, and the birth of the Keanusance, its OW managed to nearly double from Chapter 2, yet again, with 56.8M. That's more than Wick 1's final total! And thanks to strong reviews and a lack of strong competition, Parabellum still managed to triple its OW, with about 170.8M. That's only slightly less than Chapter 2's worldwide total.

 

Its success was a god-send for Lionsgate, which until then had zero franchises to work with, and was fresh off 2018, one of its weakest years in recent memory. But now, Lionsgate finally has a hit property they can call their own. And alongside Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark and Angel Has Fallen doing decent business in August, it shows that Lionsgate isn’t out of the game just yet.

 

Parabellum’s success is a very important lesson for executives everywhere. As much as established properties and decades-old franchises have their place and success in the Hollywood landscape, it is just as, if not more important, to groom and develop and nurture original ideas that can turn into sequels. The first John Wick didn’t gross much, but if Lionsgate didn’t decide to nurture the property, we wouldn’t have gotten Parabellum in the first place. Sooner or later, your decades-old property won’t have as much gas in the tank, so taking the time to make something the world has never seen before is integral for survival.

 

 

2. Avengers: Endgame beats Avatar. Do I even need to go any further? Even months later, its 357M opening is so surreal to look at. It was a true “holy shit” moment that I don’t think will be topped anytime soon. And while it did need to pull a few strings to hit the mark, toppling the two Cameron titans at a time when both films seemed impossible to beat is still commendable and shows just how massive Marvel is in our current global film landscape. 

 

I said this last year, but there’s really no other franchise as popular, consistent, or as successful as the MCU. Almost every film has been a crowdpleasing hit, movie stars were born from these movies, heroes and villains from these films have managed to become mainstays in the pop culture zeitgeist, the Internet has been memeing the hell out of these movies, and it feels like the fanbase is growing exponentially every year. And Endgame is the perfect example on why the MCU is so big, and why it is so special. And with Far From Home hitting a strong billion, and both Black Widow and The Eternals looking to be big hits next year, alongside a slew of other theatrical films and even Disney+ shows, the MCU doesn’t seem to be ending anytime soon, and honestly, cinema wouldn’t be the same without it.

 

Thank you Kevin Feige for all you’ve done. Here’s to 11 more years of MCU goodness!

 

 

1. Aladdin defines Disney’s monster success this summer. Before the summer began, Disney’s Aladdin looked like it had everything going against it, outside of being based on an iconic Disney brand. Reviews were meh, the Disney Memorial Day curse killed off something as mighty as Star Wars, and the marketing, most notably when they actually revealed Blue Will Smith, made the film look like a total joke. With so much seemingly against it, some people were hesitant to predict 200M, let alone 350M.

 

But lo and behold, Aladdin not only went above expectations, but more than surpassed them. Opening to 116.8M for the 4-Day Memorial Day weekend, Aladdin joined the top 5 for Memorial Day openings, becoming an instant success. But as the weeks went on, people really began responding to the movie. Thanks to its catchy songs and delightfully fun Will Smith, strong word of mouth had many skeptics checking the film out, while fans of the movie went back for repeat viewings. The film would go on to have strong legs, with consistent sub-35% drops, even with major family competition in the ensuing weeks. This led to the film wrapping up with an astonishing 355M domestic. Overseas was also amazing, with both Japan and South Korea grossing over 100M each. The movie finished with a strong billion worldwide, being one of 5 for Disney this year (two more are on the way). Not so bad for a movie that everyone mocked a couple months before release.

 

But why is this movie at #1? To put it bluntly, even after Endgame made more than Avatar, Aladdin truly defines just how ludicrously successful Disney was this summer and this year in general. Before the summer started, we knew Endgame was gonna be a smash hit. We knew Lion King was going to be huge. We even knew Toy Story 4 was gonna be big. But Aladdin was a true wild card. Most people expected a strong 800M grosser at best, or a poor 450M grosser at worst. But seeing how this movie was not only a hit, but a leggy machine and another billion-dollar smash, it shows just how much beloved and trustworthy the Disney brand is to the moviegoing public. Even when things look shaky, people will still flock to see their movies, and generally have a good time. It bodes well for the rest of the year, and even 2020 for the studio, as well as Disney+ this November, which seems more and more like a guaranteed success for the company.

 

Disney may be a bunch of evil corporate overlords, but the box office wouldn't be the same without them.

 

 

As always, feel free to agree and disagree, and if you want to make your own top 10, go on ahead!

Edited September 2, 2019 by Eric!

[JB33]

Awesome post! Thanks!

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, Eric! said:

It’ll be interesting to see what the future of Chinese animation holds and whether the market will manage to break out into other territories any time in the future.

I don't expect this to happen, but if a Chinese movie becomes a big hit worldwide, it's probably going to be a cartoon.

Big hit to me means $20 million in USA+Canada or $10 million in Japan.

[Cap]

I was like omg Avengers #2, wtf.. ooooh. Yesssss yes. Absolutely. 

 

Good journey. 

 

Great write ups

[cannastop]

Yeah I don't expect Chinese movies or movies from other countries to ever be big around the world like Disney movies are. No matter how big China's economy gets.

[Barnack]

Aladdin has a realistic shot at being the weakest Disney remake of the 4 grown jewel of Disney renaissance, despite having been the second most popular back in their days by a good amount and having Will Smith

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$523,549,294	4,802	$191,770,759	4,725	7/19/19
2	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$504,014,165	4,210	$174,750,616	4,210	3/17/17
3	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$364,001,123	4,144	$103,261,464	4,028	4/15/16
4	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$354,509,665	4,476	$91,500,929	4,476	5/24/19

 

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year
1	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$1,564.5	$523.5	33.5%	$1,041.0	66.5%	2019
2	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$1,263.5	$504.0	39.9%	$759.5	60.1%	2017
3	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$1,044.1	$354.5	34%	$689.6	66%	2019

 

 

In a couple of year, maybe it will look not that special at all, we need to give weight to the bad CGI film twitter panic/middle of the road reviews (even thought the family target audience is an extremely robust one toward both aspect) for it to look special in any way.

 

 

Considering how some record exploded with EndGame and taking the unadjusted #1 WW spot of all time..... could be hard to justify to not have it number 1.

That said in how many market EndGame will be the summer #1 movie vs in how many market it will not be the number 1 movie (would it be Lion King, Aladdin, Toy Story 4 or a local one), for the number 1 movie of all time it is probably quite weak in that regard.

[Cappoedameron]

Quote

Maybe it was the “meh” reviews. Maybe it was Avengers sucking up all the attention. Maybe it was really only appealing to Pokemonfans and nobody else. But it’s so bizarre to think that something that had so much going for it on paper just did so painfully average. But weirdly enough, this film’s “fine, but could have been better” box office permeated through just about every non-Disney release this summer. I guess it was, in a way, a sign of things to come.

 

I would add not only did Avengers suck up all the attention it also sucked up the theaters. Pikachu had to make a lot of it's gross in matinees and it lost a lot of evening showings to Endgame.

 

The DP sequel won't have to deal with any of this so it's already likely gonna be a better box office result.

Edited September 2, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

 

I would add not only did Avengers suck up all the attention it also sucked up the theaters. Pikachu had to make a lot of it's gross in matinees and it lost a lot of evening showings to Endgame.

 

The DP sequel won't have to deal with any of this so it's already likely gonna be a better box office result.

I wouldn't hold your breath. You can't chalk up DP's performance 100% to Endgame.

 

By the way, finally watched DP on blu ray the other night. Fun movie! I hope they march forward with the franchise.

[baumer]

Fantastic write up!

[cannastop]

11 hours ago, Eric! said:

And with good word of mouth, as well as the Bruce Lee controversy keeping it in the conversation, the film continued to have good legs throughout the rest of August, as Hollywood is now Tarantino’s second-biggest movie ever, and is expected to hit 140M at least here in the states, and about 350M worldwide.

Where is it getting that extra $60m overseas?

[aabattery]

13 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Where is it getting that extra $60m overseas? 

 

More like 50m when you account for the extra 10m or so Eric is expecting it to get domestically (which sounds about right).

 

I imagine it'll just accumulate around that much as it keeps going OS. Did 21.6m last weekend and it's OS rollout was a lot later than its domestic release so I assume it'll have enough gas in the tank to get to around 350m.