Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | February 17, 2023 | Competing with Eternals on RT, Competing with BvS on box office legs

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Breathe it in, folks. That's the smell of franchise fatigue. At this rate Kang Dynasty might actually end up missing the billion dollar mark. Marvel has just 2 years to turn things around. Can they?

Fatigue is one thing, what you're suggesting is utter collapse, which there's isn't a sign of as of now.

[Macleod]

Yeah, unless this movie turns out to be a secretly-genius-well-made picture (and there's no indication of that from any buzz, unlike THE FLASH, which we've been hearing positive buzz about for what feels like...years), then I expect a similar small bump a la the last sequel.  The movie "looks" great and I've always liked Rudd in these, but they are still 'niche' interests within the MCU.  Fanboys claiming "This is the first big intro of Kang, it will be epic" will mean nothing to the general audience.  Though I'm pretty sure that Majors will be the best thing in the movie, yes!  He has a great year ahead, with CREED III coming right afterwards. 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Macleod

[Verrows]

Honestly, Marvel has a marketing problem. They've been coasting like it's still 2018/2019 and it was infused in people's heads to march on to the theatre when a Marvel movie released.

 

I realize it's Ant-Man. It's low in the Marvel pecking order for fans. However there's a lot more to this movie than one expects when they see the Ant-Man title, which would be apparent if Marvel stepped up their marketing game. There is absolutely nothing out there that suggests a Marvel movie is coming up so forget relative interest. It feels non-existent, period!

Edited December 31, 2022 by Verrows

[YM!]

An utter collapse won’t happen unless Kang Dynasty+Secret Wars are awful. Diminishing returns won’t equal collapse. The current floor for an MCU opener is still $70m. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Fatigue is one thing, what you're suggesting is utter collapse, which there's isn't a sign of as of now.

The former tends to lead into the latter. Just take a look at what happened to the original Transformers films.

3 minutes ago, Macleod said:

Yeah, unless this movie turns out to be a secretly-genius-well-made picture (and there's no indication of that from any buzz, unlike THE FLASH, which we've been hearing positive buzz about for what feels like...years), then I expect a similar small bump a la the last sequel.  Fanboys claiming "This is the first big intro of Kang, it will be epic" will mean nothing to the general audience.  Though I'm pretty sure that Majors will be the best thing in the movie, yes!  He has a great year ahead, with CREED III coming right afterwards. 

I'm not expecting much from The Flash either to be honest. Audiences are smart enough to spot storytelling dead ends as proven by Dark Phoenix's utter collapse back in 2019, and pretty much all of DC's movies for the coming year are.

 

I do agree about Kang. His only appearance is in a TV show not everyone might have seen, and that wasn't even the actual guy. He's still a niche character.

 

Note that none of my comments about this movie's financial prospects actually reflect my opinion on the movie itself. It honestly looks refreshingly great and harkens back to the stories we used to get in Phase 3. I just think the average whoever is starting to get tired of these movies.

[Verrows]

7 minutes ago, Macleod said:

Yeah, unless this movie turns out to be a secretly-genius-well-made picture (and there's no indication of that from any buzz, unlike THE FLASH, which we've been hearing positive buzz about for what feels like...years), then I expect a similar small bump a la the last sequel.  The movie "looks" great and I've always liked Rudd in these, but they are still 'niche' interests within the MCU.  Fanboys claiming "This is the first big intro of Kang, it will be epic" will mean nothing to the general audience.  Though I'm pretty sure that Majors will be the best thing in the movie, yes!  He has a great year ahead, with CREED III coming right afterwards. 

You're right, it means nothing right now to the general audience..but it COULD mean something if Marvel got off their lazy butts and started marketing it.

[YM!]

Just now, Verrows said:

Honestly, Marvel has a marketing problem. They've been coasting like it's still 2018/2019 and it was infused in people's heads to march on to the theatre when a Marvel movie released.

 

I realize it's Ant-Man. It's low in the Marvel pecking order for fans. However there's a lot more to this movie than one expects when they see the Ant-Man title, which would be more apparent if Marvel stepped up their marketing game. There is absolutely nothing out there that suggests a Marvel movie is coming up so forget relative interest. It feels non-existent, period!

It’s because they have eight projects a year to sell and they don’t want to risk shutting one out in favor of another. They used to do 2-3 trailers for a Marvel flick and get them out early. Like the July release at the absolute latest would get a February trailer, but now we wait until

April because lord forbid whatever Disney+ piece gets eyes taken away from it.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The former tends to lead into the latter. Just take a look at what happened to the original Transformers films.

Different circumstances. Besides half of the stuff Phase 4 film wise got positive reception. We won’t see an utter collapse in my opinion until maybe Blade because it’s the most troubled production wise. For goodness sake, Morbius did a 40m opening on just the Marvel name and that wasn’t even MCU.

Edited December 31, 2022 by YM!

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The former tends to lead into the latter. Just take a look at what happened to the original Transformers films.

Transformers wasn't a fan-driven franchise. Marvel has a pretty high floor as of now. The luster is diminished, but KD going under a billion would require things to get far worse than they are currently. 

[Verrows]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

It’s because they have eight projects a year to sell and they don’t want to risk shutting one out in favor of another. They used to do 2-3 trailers for a Marvel flick and get them out early. Like the July release at the absolute latest would get a February trailer, but now we wait until

April because lord forbid whatever Disney+ piece gets eyes taken away from it.

Agreed. The thing is, if they stopped handling their audience with kid gloves and stopped worrying about overshadowing one thing or the other, they could probably succeed just fine in giving everything a proper marketing boost. So what if audiences take their focus off something else? They'll return focus to that once they're done with the last movie/show/whatever.

 

That said, Disney+ and the huge slate of movies is a problem either way. It's too much. I personally don't think it's an issue as far as marketing is concerned, but it is an issue for quality which is having a major impact on the general audience. The quality hasn't been there.

 

[ZeeSoh]

5 minutes ago, YM! said:

An utter collapse won’t happen unless Kang Dynasty+Secret Wars are awful. Diminishing returns won’t equal collapse. The current floor for an MCU opener is still $70m. 

I think even if those 2 disappoint relative to expectations, Marvel would still have 1 more card to play that can revitalize interest and that is X-Men. That is a franchise on its own and if Marvel can get it right it will give them years and years of content. There is also Fantastic Four but that is not as lucrative or expansive as X-Men

[YM!]

I think a 90/245/600 run seems right. A slight decrease from 2 and a sign of diminishing returns but not the utter decimation and still a good hold relatively speaking. If I were to predict every MCU movie from now until Secret Wars, here’s what I’d do assuming no China:

 

Quantumania: 90/245/600

Guardians: 185/460/925

Marvels: 115/290/675

New World Order (I think it’ll be a psuedo Hulk movie like Ragnarok): 135/345/700

Thunderbolts: 70/195/515

Blade: 60/160/400

Deadpool 3. 165/420/800

Fantastic Four (I think it’ll be mediocre like the Watts movies but loved by the GA as Feige wants to get it right): 100/300/700

Kang Dynasty: 200/450/1300

Shang-Chi 2: 110/325/700

Armor Wars: 80/225/495

Secret Wars: 275/625/1800

Edited December 31, 2022 by YM!

[ZeeSoh]

Also Kang Dynasty is 2.5 years away. Who expected here that Infinity War/Endgame combo would gross as much as they did at the end of 2015 (2.5 years from IW release). 2015 had AoU gross less than Avengers and the first Ant-Man movie, quite a downer year for MCU (review and BO wise).

[Factcheck]

11 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Transformers wasn't a fan-driven franchise. Marvel has a pretty high floor as of now. The luster is diminished, but KD going under a billion would require things to get far worse than they are currently. 

I can tell you now that Kang Dynasty's box office will depend upon how much people are excited for characters like Sam Cap, Shuri, Captain Marvel, Shang-Chi, and She-Hulk at that time. People are excited for other popular characters like Spider-Man, Doctor Strange, and Wanda, but it seems very unlikely that they would be the focus of KD.

[Firepower]

15 minutes ago, YM! said:

Different circumstances. Besides half of the stuff Phase 4 film wise got positive reception. We won’t see an utter collapse in my opinion until maybe Blade because it’s the most troubled production wise.

The Marvels doing 500-600 mln would look like an utter collapse to me.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

Also Kang Dynasty is 2.5 years away. Who expected here that Infinity War/Endgame combo would gross as much as they did at the end of 2015 (2.5 years from IW release). 2015 had AoU gross less than Avengers and the first Ant-Man movie, quite a downer year for MCU (review and BO wise).

 

Bingo. We have a lot of things that are going to happen between now and KD that will shape the direction/sentiment around that film and the MCU in general. We can talk about a lot of things but there's a myriad of numbers it could end up at. 

Well, except under $1B worldwide. That's not happening 

[YM!]

Just now, Firepower said:

The Marvels doing 500-600 mln would look like an utter collapse to me.

I don’t think it’ll do that low. I think a similar fall from Wakanda Forever, 275/695. It’s not great but depending on budget it’s fair enough.

[Firepower]

7 minutes ago, YM! said:

I don’t think it’ll do that low. I think a similar fall from Wakanda Forever, 275/695. It’s not great but depending on budget it’s fair enough.

You mean with or without China?

Edited December 31, 2022 by Firepower

[YM!]

Honestly, I think they’re rushing the Kang stuff and in trying to outdo Phase 3, they’ve made the committee criticism a lot more evident in hindsight. The standout this phase film wise was Wakanda Forever (because Coogler is easily the best director in the MCU against Gunn) and Shang Chi, and tv wise I dug Ms. Marvel and She-Hulk but the rest I liked but had flaws, very mediocre or in some cases bad. Phase 4 should’ve been a return to basics with SamCap making a new Avengers to fight against Masters of Evil and gone smaller in scale.

[Firepower]

41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Even the trailer numbers look meh and MCU 1st trailers have the highest views.

To be honest Guardians 3 trailer has even less views, surprisingly.