Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | February 17, 2023 | Competing with Eternals on RT, Competing with BvS on box office legs

[Menor the Destroyer]

Guessing 45% RT.

[Lucas]

19 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

You have to be sarcastic, right?

About what? I'll see it eventually but I did miss a screening today and the reactions that have come out don't exactly fill me with confidence in the film.

[Willowra]

19 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Guessing 45% RT.

45% RT and A cinemascore, that would be a perfect Disney movie.

[TwoMisfits]

25 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Guessing 45% RT.

 

Welcome to the "same as Eternals" (okay, that's actually 47%) RT prediction party...

[fabiopazzo2]

still with this importance given to Rt? we are in 2023. enough

 

go see a movie and rate it for yourself
 

this will be my personal battle 

Edited February 14, 2023 by fabiopazzo2

[JustLurking]

14 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

still with this importance given to Rt? we are in 2023. enough

 

go see a movie and rate it for yourself
 

this will be my personal battle 

sir, this is a box office forum

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

sir, this is a box office forum

But CinemaScore has more of a "correlation" to box office gross than RT scores. Look at Joker 2019

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

But CinemaScore has more of a "correlation" to box office gross than RT scores. Look at Joker 2019

Marvel movies critics scores and audiences scores have direct correlation

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

But CinemaScore has more of a "correlation" to box office gross than RT scores. Look at Joker 2019

Yeah absolutely but reviews are still decently important in terms of how the final ps bump will be (plus verified audience RT *usually* correlates fairly well with CS). And even with CS/RT audience you are still using looking at other people's opinions.

 

And to be entirely fair, in the context of the MCU reviews usually correlate decently well with CS, the poorest reviewed MCU films usually ended up with some of the lowest cinemascores as well iirc. That's not a hard rule or anything, but sets the expectations going forward.

 

Basically while "whether you enjoy the film or not" is the most important metric on a personal level, it is completely irrelevant BO-wise.

[M37]

Still getting the vibe that - unlike Eternals (boring) or even Thor L&T (unfunny) - this is a messy script/average story with above average entertainment value that audience will generally receive well, and lower critic scores aren't going to derail grossing potential all that much

 

Not expecting great legs, but there hasn't been a popcorn action flick since BPWF, which by necessity had a heavier tone, so it should do fine filling that void until competition starts to eat away at it into March

 

Not ready to move off my $300M+ expectations (even if just barely gets there), even with an RT score in the 60s/MC in the low 50s

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Marvel movies critics scores and audiences scores have direct correlation

This isn't a definitive rule though.

 

i.e. WF had a lower RT score (84%) than Antman 2 (88%) yet WF had an A Cinemascore and Antman 2 had an A- Cinemascore

[JustLurking]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

This isn't a definitive rule though.

 

i.e. WF had a lower RT score (84%) than Antman 2 (88%) yet WF had an A Cinemascore and Antman 2 had an A- Cinemascore

I agree that it's not a rule (and hell for all you know, while that hasn't happened for the MCU, there are franchises that go rotten and still get strong cinemascores, so nothing says it can't happen), but those are close enough that they are pretty much within range either way. You need some wider differences to make your case.

 

i.e. thor2 going 66% but still getting A-.

Edited February 14, 2023 by JustLurking

[GOGODanca]

someone posted this earlier but only one mcu movie has gone below a 70 on RT critics score and gotten an A- cinemascore or better, of course it can happen again but generally mcu movies please critics as much as the audiences so if ant-man 3 ends up in the 60's or even worse then the chances that audiences really like it is pretty slim

[Menor the Destroyer]

36 minutes ago, M37 said:

Still getting the vibe that - unlike Eternals (boring) or even Thor L&T (unfunny) - this is a messy script/average story with above average entertainment value that audience will generally receive well, and lower critic scores aren't going to derail grossing potential all that much

 

Not expecting great legs, but there hasn't been a popcorn action flick since BPWF, which by necessity had a heavier tone, so it should do fine filling that void until competition starts to eat away at it into March

 

Not ready to move off my $300M+ expectations (even if just barely gets there), even with an RT score in the 60s/MC in the low 50s

I think this is the first time you're higher than me on expectations for this movie . 

 

I don't think this will be received as badly as Eternals or Thor, but expecting WOM perhaps in line with MoM, and fan loading will prevent legs being strong. Would guess around 280m right now. 

Edited February 14, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[M37]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I agree that it's not a rule (and hell for all you know, while that hasn't happened for the MCU, there are franchises that go rotten and still get strong cinemascores, so nothing says it can't happen), but those are close enough that they are pretty much within range either way. You need some wider differences to make your case.

 

i.e. thor2 going 66% but still getting A-.

To me, CinemaScore is mostly a reflection of how accurately the marketing sold what the film was going to be, in setting expectations and then meeting, exceeding, or falling below them.

 

Critic scores are (generally) taking a more big picture/holistic/objective view; a movie can be "not good", but if audiences are going in having that lowered expectation, then it can still rate highly (see entire F&F Franchise)

 

Marvel/Disney have become victims of their own success, in that a sustained period of high quality has raised the expectations bar. But, I'm not sure how much hype of introducing new baddie Kang vs this is still "just" an Ant-Man movie will be the prevailing audience expectation, even if I lean towards the latter

[Joyous Legion]

Just plugged 115*2.6 into my browser and got a lil chuckle

[M37]

13 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think this is the first time you're higher than me on expectations for this movie . 
 

I don't think this will be received as badly as Eternals or Thor, but expecting WOM perhaps in line with MoM, and fan loading will prevent legs being strong. Would guess around 280m right now. 

Funny thing is, I haven’t moved all that much! Thought with really good reviews/WOM could make a run at $330-$350M … but that’s not happening 

 

May change once reviews actually come and see why it scores lower, but have always had the sense the hype among the broader MCU audience was overstated and so the fan-loading “disappointment” will have less of an impact here. More Black Adam than MoM

 

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

31 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

someone posted this earlier but only one mcu movie has gone below a 70 on RT critics score and gotten an A- cinemascore or better, of course it can happen again but generally mcu movies please critics as much as the audiences so if ant-man 3 ends up in the 60's or even worse then the chances that audiences really like it is pretty slim

It was me.

 

What i also mentioned is that there is only 1 Rotten MCU movie, but 4 Movies whose Cinemascore is in Bs.

 

So MCU movies can get B even if they are fresh.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Still getting the vibe that - unlike Eternals (boring) or even Thor L&T (unfunny) - this is a messy script/average story with above average entertainment value that audience will generally receive well, and lower critic scores aren't going to derail grossing potential all that much

 

Not expecting great legs, but there hasn't been a popcorn action flick since BPWF, which by necessity had a heavier tone, so it should do fine filling that void until competition starts to eat away at it into March

 

Not ready to move off my $300M+ expectations (even if just barely gets there), even with an RT score in the 60s/MC in the low 50s

 

I'm not quite as optimistic as you, but I feel like we can really use a big fun popcorn movie, that it'll overcome much of the resistance from a mediocre critical response.

 

We've also been really light on Marvel for a while now. After a period of films and full series in quick succession, there really hasn't been much the last 4-5 months or so. Last year, they had shows overlapping with the movies, and I think that hurt the demand more than it helped.

 

[Liiviig 1998]

 

RT

45-55%

CS same as MOM

 

108m/123m/255-270m