Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | February 17, 2023 | Competing with Eternals on RT, Competing with BvS on box office legs

[Ronin46]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think the possibility that this one will underperform needs to be highly weighed. This has always been the least successful sub-franchise of MCU and Phase 4 on the whole killed a ton of the momentum for MCU. This is not Ant Man 2 days where MCU was riding the ultimate popularity snd goodwill high. I would not be shocked with an OW somewhere between the first and second’s OWs. WOM needs to be incredible I think for this to be any kind of breakout. 

 

What? Your really saying ANT3 has a chance to be 57-75M OW (3 day). Just multiply by 2 and welcome yourself to reality. 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

18 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

What? Your really saying ANT3 has a chance to be 57-75M OW (3 day). Just multiply by 2 and welcome yourself to reality. 

 

 

Sounds absurd to expect this franchise to have the same pull as the likes of Black Panther and Thor, but if this is some kind of Thor Ragnarok reset that gets everyone talking, then maybe I suppose. Not like that’s easy to pull off though. 

[Ronin46]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Sounds absurd to expect this franchise to have the same pull as the likes of Black Panther and Thor, but if this is some kind of Thor Ragnarok reset that gets everyone talking, then maybe I suppose. Not like that’s easy to pull off though. 

 

Just looking at the numbers. Its tracking at 80% of BP2 which equates to 23/146 OW. I expect 120-130 for the 3 day. 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Ronin46

[Immortal]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Sounds absurd to expect this franchise to have the same pull as the likes of Black Panther and Thor, but if this is some kind of Thor Ragnarok reset that gets everyone talking, then maybe I suppose. Not like that’s easy to pull off though. 

Let's say your range is where AM3 will land and now analyse the data, we have 2 MCU movies in/ near this range post Covid, Shang Chi(75) and Eternals(71) both had preview numbers at 8.8 and 9.5 respectively, currently the way it is selling the lowest numbers in the Tracking thread suggests 15-16 mil preview and the most preview heavy MCU film is DS2 with a 5.19x multiplier so even with DS2's multi we are looking at 78-83 mil debut and that is without factoring in DS2's size, holiday monday and some weekend sales data we have, for AM3 to fall in your range it has to earn around BW numbers in previews which going by current sales is nigh impossible.

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Immortal said:

Let's say your range is where AM3 will land and now analyse the data, we have 2 MCU movies in/ near this range post Covid, Shang Chi(75) and Eternals(71) both had preview numbers at 8.8 and 9.5 respectively, currently the way it is selling the lowest numbers in the Tracking thread suggests 15-16 mil preview and the most preview heavy MCU film is DS2 with a 5.19x multiplier so even with DS2's multi we are looking at 78-83 mil debut and that is without factoring in DS2's size, holiday monday and some weekend sales data we have, for AM3 to fall in your range it has to earn around BW numbers in previews which going by current sales is nigh impossible.

Eh, maybe I’m wrong on OW then but if so I’d get ready to see one of the most frontloaded MCU films. Again, unless WOM is exceptional. It doesn’t make any logical sense why a huge new audience would come out of the woodwork for Ant Man now of all times. That would have made far more sense for the second film when MCU was riding high. Instead, we got shown a definitive ceiling here, 

[Ronin46]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Eh, maybe I’m wrong on OW then but if so I’d get ready to see one of the most frontloaded MCU films. Again, unless WOM is exceptional. It doesn’t make any logical sense why a huge new audience would come out of the woodwork for Ant Man now of all times. That would have made far more sense for the second film when MCU was riding high. Instead, we got shown a definitive ceiling here, 

 

Maybe your wrong? People are providing numbers. Its sold 2.3M+ for previews from 1 movie chain (ZackM) already as of a few days ago. You think its going to do 10M for previews from here?

[JustLurking]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think the possibility that this one will underperform needs to be highly weighed. This has always been the least successful sub-franchise of MCU and Phase 4 on the whole killed a ton of the momentum for MCU. This is not Ant Man 2 days where MCU was riding the ultimate popularity snd goodwill high. I would not be shocked with an OW somewhere between the first and second’s OWs. WOM needs to be incredible I think for this to be any kind of breakout. 

Presales already rule that OW impossible. It would need to have some kind of never-before-seen tier collapse and by multiple orders of magnitude to fall down there.

 

Yes this is "still ant-man" but only to the degree that MoM was "still Strange". The attachment of Kang as the kickoff to the next big saga clearly changed the appeal of the film in a similar vein as the multiverse and the cameos changed the appeal of a Strange film. People aren't so ignorant of the inner works of the franchise that they can't look past the name and see this is a bigger film in the scope of the narrative than the usual antman flick.

Edited January 30, 2023 by JustLurking

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

 

Maybe your wrong? People are providing numbers. Its sold 2.3M+ for previews from 1 movie chain (ZackM) already as of a few days ago. You think its going to do 10M for previews from here?

I think MCU just gets more and more frontloaded, especially when it comes to the sequels. If it’s selling well enough to have a huge preview, that just tells me it’s going to be massively frontloaded. Again, logic says there’s no reason for this movie to magically gain a massive boost in interest from the rest of the ones. There is no major incentive or driving force here. All that could cause a big spike from AM2 would be some sort of spectacular wildfire WOM. 

[Verrows]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think the possibility that this one will underperform needs to be highly weighed. This has always been the least successful sub-franchise of MCU and Phase 4 on the whole killed a ton of the momentum for MCU. This is not Ant Man 2 days where MCU was riding the ultimate popularity snd goodwill high. I would not be shocked with an OW somewhere between the first and second’s OWs. WOM needs to be incredible I think for this to be any kind of breakout. 

Uh.... Have you seen tracking?

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Presales already rule that OW impossible. It would need to have some kind of never-before-seen tier collapse and by multiple orders of magnitude to fall down there.

 

Yes this is "still ant-man" but only to the degree that MoM was "still Strange". The attachment of Kang as the kickoff to the next big saga clearly changed the appeal of the film in a similar vein as the multiverse and the cameos changed the appeal of a Strange film. People aren't so ignorant of the inner works of the franchise that they can't look past the name and see this is a bigger film in the scope of the narrative than the usual antman flick.

Lol, the GA have zero clue who or what a “Kang” is and why it should matter to them. Blame Feige and co for doing a crap job during phase 4 of setting up the future of the franchise, unlike where the MCU always shined before that.  

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, the GA have zero clue who or what a “Kang” is and why it should matter to them. Blame Feige and co for doing a crap job during phase 4 of setting up the future of the franchise, unlike where the MCU always shined before that.  

The GA isn't quite as oblivious as you think, and even if it was the MCU base is big enough they can definitely pump a film like ant-man up if it's given a bigger role in the narrative. But you can remain convinced of the contrary and be flabbergasted at how presales are very clearly showing this isn't going to open like an ant-man film whatsoever if you prefer, I'm not the one trying to argue against the numbers 🤷‍♂️

Edited January 30, 2023 by JustLurking

[Verrows]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think MCU just gets more and more frontloaded, especially when it comes to the sequels. If it’s selling well enough to have a huge preview, that just tells me it’s going to be massively frontloaded. Again, logic says there’s no reason for this movie to magically gain a massive boost in interest from the rest of the ones. There is no major incentive or driving force here. All that could cause a big spike from AM2 would be some sort of spectacular wildfire WOM. 

Nevermind, it's already been addressed.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Verrows

[thajdikt]

 

 

 

[Mr Terrific]

Third Thor took a pretty huge leap without a huge hook (Hulk guest star). 
Third CA and DS made huge jumps but with obvious hooks. 
Seems like AM’s smaller nature (huh huh) left more room for a big jump. 
MCU legs have arguably slightly recovered lately. DS2, 2.19. T4, 2.38. BP2, 2.5. Small sample, but still a little life. 

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

It doesn’t make any logical sense why a huge new audience would come out of the woodwork for Ant Man now of all times.

 

7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Again, logic says there’s no reason for this movie to magically gain a massive boost in interest from the rest of the ones. 

 

 

==========

 

My non-snarky response to the points you raise, MM89, can be seen here:

 

 

The tl;dr, as noted at the end of my post, is:   Fandom Dynamics > Pre-Existing Data concerning film series.

 

We'll see if that holds true as the film rolls out.

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think MCU just gets more and more frontloaded, especially when it comes to the sequels. If it’s selling well enough to have a huge preview, that just tells me it’s going to be massively frontloaded. Again, logic says there’s no reason for this movie to magically gain a massive boost in interest from the rest of the ones. There is no major incentive or driving force here. All that could cause a big spike from AM2 would be some sort of spectacular wildfire WOM. 

It’s the same leap Thor made from Dark World to Ranarok, or Cap from Winter Soldier to Civil War. The broader story now makes this character & movie “important”, and it jumps from a Tier 3 secondary character to a Tier 2 major one 

 

The only question is how much does it jump 

[TheFlatLannister]

11 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think the possibility that this one will underperform needs to be highly weighed. This has always been the least successful sub-franchise of MCU and Phase 4 on the whole killed a ton of the momentum for MCU. This is not Ant Man 2 days where MCU was riding the ultimate popularity snd goodwill high. I would not be shocked with an OW somewhere between the first and second’s OWs. WOM needs to be incredible I think for this to be any kind of breakout. 

 

What is "underperform" in this scenario? I'm honestly not expecting anything over $700M and $600-700M is a success in my eyes. Anything over $750M would be wow for an Antman film 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, the GA have zero clue who or what a “Kang” is and why it should matter to them. Blame Feige and co for doing a crap job during phase 4 of setting up the future of the franchise, unlike where the MCU always shined before that.  

Does Marvel need the GA to make $600-700M?  Early data is suggesting the MCU fanbase is going to come out OW. Clearly the fanbase is excited for the next big bad and that should be enough to outgross AM1 and AM2

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

It’s the same leap Thor made from Dark World to Ranarok, or Cap from Winter Soldier to Civil War. The broader story now makes this character & movie “important”, and it jumps from a Tier 3 secondary character to a Tier 2 major one 

 

The only question is how much does it jump 

 

Yep.  My thoughts exactly.

 

FWIW, I do sympathize with the "GA still dunna care; it's Ant-Man" argument.  But I think folks underselling "Setting up the next Big Bad in a big way/Moving the plot along" factor do so at their own peril.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Porthos

[Factcheck]

On 1/14/2023 at 8:37 PM, Factcheck said:

Dom 280M

OS-China 370M

China 70-150M

Total 720-800M

 

Dom 310M

OS-China 410M

China 80-150M

Total 800-870M