Joker: Folie a Deux | October 4, 2024 | Lady Gaga is Harley Quinn in this 200M+ musical sequel

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, thajdikt said:

Genuinely shocked by the sales. @TheFlatLannister well done for being consistent on this for a long time.

My 3 guarantees of the year were on point

 

expected $1.2B for Deadpool

$1.2B+ for Inside out 2 

and a big drop for Joker 2 

 

very easy to predict CBMs and popular animations 

[TheFlatLannister]

Don’t think Joker 2 dropping is due to poor reactions. As I have been drumming at for the past month, the musical aspect killed this film from the getgo. 18-35 males simply won’t show up to watch musicals even if a popular comic characters is attached. If a film is made and it does not target the core audience, then you have a BIG problem. 
 

i.e. The Marvels 

[Speedorito]

Remember when:

 

 

[ZeroHour]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

TGM did well at Cannes. That said Hollywood doesn't make blockbuster films that good very frequently.

And I think execs have gotten worse at knowing the quality of their films going into these things. 

[YM!]

37 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Don’t think Joker 2 dropping is due to poor reactions. As I have been drumming at for the past month, the musical aspect killed this film from the getgo. 18-35 males simply won’t show up to watch musicals even if a popular comic characters is attached. If a film is made and it does not target the core audience, then you have a BIG problem. 
 

i.e. The Marvels 

I honestly thought the musical would be more of a boon mainly because Joker 1 always had a zeitgeist to it. It needed an angle so nutty, so unique to pull it off and tbh a musical would be Joker enough to do it.

[lorddemaxus]

41 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Don’t think Joker 2 dropping is due to poor reactions. As I have been drumming at for the past month, the musical aspect killed this film from the getgo. 18-35 males simply won’t show up to watch musicals even if a popular comic characters is attached. If a film is made and it does not target the core audience, then you have a BIG problem. 
 

i.e. The Marvels 

I’m sorry but this guys won’t watch a movie because it has musical numbers thing is bullshit and based on nothing lol. Yeah, the presale suck atm but it’s not because it’s a musical

[HummingLemon496]

2 hours ago, TomThomas said:

I knew most of those would flop hard even without any data, only The Flash was a black sheep.

 

I remember there was similar panic that GOTG3 will flop and tracking thread implied 70 mln OW. It didn't happen to say the least.

Then I guess you can praise Joker for at least being unpredictable

 

$70M for GOTG 3 was the low end, that's what it would've done if it was bad. GOTG 3 presales accelerated heavily which is why it missed the <$100M doom and gloom but $118M is still mid

[Firepower]

10 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I’m sorry but this guys won’t watch a movie because it has musical numbers thing is bullshit and based on nothing lol. Yeah, the presale suck atm but it’s not because it’s a musical

Honestly, people who loudly complain about musical here are the same people who probably praised La La Land to the moon. Maybe it's just cool to complain about musicals on the internet, I don't know, it's just weird.

Edited September 9 by Firepower

[HummingLemon496]

Re: "It's the first couple hours of sales, give it time!"

 

 2 hours is enough. We knew Marvels was flopping after 2 hours. 2 hours was enough to know that Flash, BB, Shazam 2 would flop, and that Gotg3 would have a weak opening. Enough to know NWH would clear 200M, that DS2 was on fire but L&T and WF were going to open big but not going to go crazy. 2 hours is enough to know quite a lot about how a Cbm will open!

 

- Redditor

[HummingLemon496]

Congratulations to everybody who went with the Deadpool 3 DOM > POTC DOM > Joker 2 DOM option on that multiple choice poll. I myself went with A

[Mojoguy]

They spend $200M on this thing.

 

Zaslav is going be pissed if this disappoints.

[HummingLemon496]

I can't tell if this movie opening to like $60M is good news or bad news for Venom.

[WittyUsername]

5 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

They spend $200M on this thing.

 

Zaslav is going be pissed if this disappoints.

Nice

[TheFlatLannister]

25 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Honestly, people who loudly complain about musical here are the same people who probably praised La La Land to the moon. Maybe it's just cool to complain about musicals on the internet, I don't know, it's just weird.

La La land and Joker have two completely different demos…

 

comparing apples to oranges. Btw I’m not saying I hate musicals, I’m saying it was not going to hit well with the CBM demo, evident by very weak early PS

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

La La land and Joker have two completely different demos…

 

comparing apples to oranges. Btw I’m not saying I hate musicals, I’m saying it was not going to hit well with the CBM demo, evident by very weak early PS

Yeah, I'm going to be honest, back in April everybody was praising the first trailer like it was some masterpiece but I honestly thought the musical angle was fucking stupid

[21C]

21 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Re: "It's the first couple hours of sales, give it time!"

 

 2 hours is enough. We knew Marvels was flopping after 2 hours. 2 hours was enough to know that Flash, BB, Shazam 2 would flop, and that Gotg3 would have a weak opening. Enough to know NWH would clear 200M, that DS2 was on fire but L&T and WF were going to open big but not going to go crazy. 2 hours is enough to know quite a lot about how a Cbm will open!

 

- Redditor

GoTG 3 weak opening? lmfao

[TheFlatLannister]

Just now, 21C said:

GoTG 3 weak opening? lmfao

Idk $118M was an underperformance, lower than ATSV. Could have opened $180M with a healthy MCU 

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, 21C said:

GoTG 3 weak opening? lmfao

GotG3 opening was weak, less than 2/3 of GotG2 opening inflation adjusted

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, 21C said:

GoTG 3 weak opening? lmfao

Uhh. . yes? First day of presales was enough to tell. CBM's are very easy to tell based on the first day or so.

[filmlover]

I refuse to believe this fails as miserably as The Marvels ultimately did lol. Then again, never would've imagined that would go as low as it did either so never say never when it comes to how low a movie that seemingly isn't connecting will go, I guess.

 

If this does end up flopping, I'd go with the "Joker 1 was a zeitgeist hit that clearly struck a chord upon release but at the same time was such a standalone that no one left it wondering when Part 2 was coming out" theory. Not every movie that makes a billion dollars calls for a follow-up.