Joker: Folie a Deux | October 4, 2024 | Lady Gaga is Harley Quinn in this 200M+ musical sequel

[Firepower]

9 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

DOM it's definitely tracking for that kind of rejection. It's still behind The Marvels in presales. I doubt OS will be far off

You're suggesting it'll do around 100M OS, including China the first one never had, 1/7 of the first one's OS? I know people want it to fail as hard as possible, but let's be serious, this is just ridiculous, it's not gonna happen, nothing in international threads I saw indicates that. Also The Marvels had insane 78% second weekend drop that's not gonna happen here either.

 

6 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$105M DOM with the same split as the first one would put it at $230M OS, which is the same as Alien Romulus.

Romulus had random overperfomance in China where it did almost half of overall OS gross.

Edited 19 hours ago by Firepower

[Alexander]

I'm not even sure OS will be that good. Here it has 3000 tickets available and only 2 sold so far. Wouldn't even surprise me if J2 dropped 70-80% from J1 in my country.

[Firepower]

OS won't be good compared to the first one, but not 100-125 Final.

[HummingLemon496]

4 hours ago, Firepower said:

You're suggesting it'll do around 100M OS, including China the first one never had, 1/7 of the first one's OS? I know people want it to fail as hard as possible, but let's be serious, this is just ridiculous, it's not gonna happen, nothing in international threads I saw indicates that. Also The Marvels had insane 78% second weekend drop that's not gonna happen here either.

 

Romulus had random overperfomance in China where it did almost half of overall OS gross.

Yeah, so Joker 2 will have higher OS-China than Romulus but lower China than Romulus, basically cancelling out to give them roughly the same OS gross

 

And btw I'm using the split of the first Joker movie

[filmlover]

Re: Todd Phillips' future in the event this fails, I wouldn't worry since he totally seems like the kind of filmmaker who will go the streaming route if this is the end of the blank checks from WB (who have bankrolled his last 7 movies, only 2 of them not taking place in the Hangover and Joker worlds). 

[emoviefan]

6 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I think it’s actually a lot more simple. It’s people thinking:

 

”That Joker film didn’t need a sequel”. 

There was no cliffhanger, it didn’t feel like a franchise film. It’s different from all the others. It was more adult and drama.

This. That's why I am tired of the whole this proves DC is cooked and so toxic right Superman is doomed. As if the first Joker exploded because the DCEU was in great shape or something.  Sure Aquaman did a billion dollars the previous Dec but do not think that helped Joker or something anymore than Lost Kingdom this past Dec is hurting this.

[Opium]

How is Gaga supposed to be blame for the underperformance of the movie or for not draw people with her name alone when the reviews pointed out she's good but 'underused' in the movie, if anything who was looking forward to this movie for her presence has definitely lost interest when all the Venice reactions pointed out that.

 

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

This. That's why I am tired of the whole this proves DC is cooked and so toxic right Superman is doomed. As if the first Joker exploded because the DCEU was in great shape or something.  Sure Aquaman did a billion dollars the previous Dec but do not think that helped Joker or something anymore than Lost Kingdom this past Dec is hurting this.

I probably lost count at this point, but DC had 8 or 9 flops in a row, including supposedly guaranteed hits. Only The Batman did well, but not amazing, riding off curiosity factor. I can't think of any other franchise that had so many flops in a row. Superman is doomed not only because of destroyed brand and decline of superhero genre, but also because Superman never resonated with the general audience since early 80s. Plus first look at Superman costume had mixed reception at best.

Edited 12 hours ago by Firepower

[HummingLemon496]

6 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I probably lost count at this point, but DC had 8 or 9 flops in a row, including supposedly guaranteed hits. Only The Batman did well, but not amazing, riding off curiosity factor. I can't think of any other franchise that had so many flops in a row. Superman is doomed not only because of destroyed brand and decline of superhero genre, but also because Superman never resonated with the general audience since early 80s. Plus first look at Superman costume had mixed reception at best.

I agree

 

Never underestimate Firepower

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I probably lost count at this point, but DC had 8 or 9 flops in a row, including supposedly guaranteed hits. Only The Batman did well, but not amazing, riding off curiosity factor. I can't think of any other franchise that had so many flops in a row. Superman is doomed not only because of destroyed brand and decline of superhero genre, but also because Superman never resonated with the general audience since early 80s. Plus first look at Superman costume had mixed reception at best.

Ok well I will wait until we actually get a trailer and the marketing actually starts up and the screenings start happening and if all the buzz is good about the quality and if the movie still bombs then we can have a discussion.  And maybe the reason all those movies bombed is because none of them were all that good except for the one that did good  Batman which is the only one above 80% on RT and 21 Suicide Squad which was hampered by hybrid release.

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I agree

 

Never underestimate Firepower

[Maggie]

I think Superman and Batman are still the biggest DC superheroes. Batman the brand was a little damaged by Snyder and the RPatz movie still did good.

 

Superman will do great next summer if it's good (and it will be). AT least 300M domestic for now

[justnumbers]

36 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I probably lost count at this point, but DC had 8 or 9 flops in a row, including supposedly guaranteed hits. Only The Batman did well, but not amazing, riding off curiosity factor. I can't think of any other franchise that had so many flops in a row. Superman is doomed not only because of destroyed brand and decline of superhero genre, but also because Superman never resonated with the general audience since early 80s. Plus first look at Superman costume had mixed reception at best.

You're projecting your opinion as other people's opinions. Just don't.

[Firepower]

21 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Ok well I will wait until we actually get a trailer and the marketing actually starts up and the screenings start happening and if all the buzz is good about the quality and if the movie still bombs then we can have a discussion.  And maybe the reason all those movies bombed is because none of them were all that good except for the one that did good  Batman which is the only one above 80% on RT and 21 Suicide Squad which was hampered by hybrid release.

21 Suicide Squad would've still flopped, hybrid release made it flop even harder. Godzilla vs Kong had a hybrid release in even worse circumstances and did 470 mln, its sequel without hybrid release and covid did just 100 mln more. Batman is the only legit success. Blue Beetle had technically decent reviews (77% RT, 91% verified) and still flopped hard.

[Firepower]

3 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

You're projecting your opinion as other people's opinions. Just don't.

Number of flops is not an opinion though. Or that Superman never had a legit success in more than 4 decades.

[justnumbers]

10 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Number of flops is not an opinion though. Or that Superman never had a legit success in more than 4 decades.

Sure but it has been a whole mess DC behind the scenes and just mess after mess. Not to mention Man of Steel did well for a poorly received movie, even if the budget was way to high. It is not a success but contexts to have in mind and mention.

 

We'll see but If anyone can do it, is James Gunn. He never misses and he is doing a Superman movie that has a chance to be good and not divisive so I would slow down.

Edited 11 hours ago by justnumbers

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Number of flops is not an opinion though. Or that Superman never had a legit success in more than 4 decades.

Maybe it's because Superman 3 and 4 stunk Returns was a carbon copy mediocre love letter to the Donner original and the Snyderverse movies we have talked about enough how divisive they were. Assuming Gunn delivers and there is no reason to think he will not this movie will hit. If not then DC is cooked and you and some others can gloat you were right.

[TheFlatLannister]

24 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I think Superman and Batman are still the biggest DC superheroes. Batman the brand was a little damaged by Snyder and the RPatz movie still did good.

 

Superman will do great next summer if it's good (and it will be). AT least 300M domestic for now

$300M+ DOM is super super optimistic. Are you expecting a $120M+ OW (on par with GOTG vol 3), because legs won't be that strong considering how much competition there is in the Summer. 

 

Ultimately, I think DOM finish will be closer to $150M than $300M

[Firepower]

6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Maybe it's because Superman 3 and 4 stunk Returns was a carbon copy mediocre love letter to the Donner original and the Snyderverse movies we have talked about enough how divisive they were. Assuming Gunn delivers and there is no reason to think he will not this movie will hit. If not then DC is cooked and you and some others can gloat you were right.

Gunn alone doesn't guarantee anything since his Suicide Squad flopped. The only thing that could help Superman is curiosity factor for DCU start, but I don't know if it's strong enough. Plus rumored 300 mln budget doesn't help.

Edited 11 hours ago by Firepower

[justnumbers]

I think Superman can do +250M Dom. I just have this feeling it will be a hot word of mouth breakout, feel good and optimistic Superman summer movie.