The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

51 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

The Marvels - Flop

Aquaman 2 - Flop

Deadpool 3 - Underperforms

Venom 3 - Lower than Venom 2

Captain America 4 - Flop

Kraven - Bomb

Madame Web - Bomb

ThunderBolts - Flop

Joker 2 - Less than the first one

 

 

If Joker 2 does less than the first one I have no reason to live. 

[The Wild Eric]

It's been like...5 pages of "Captain Marvel was only popular because Endgame" arguments over and over and over and over ad nauseum? Aren't you guys even a little bit tired? Do you really have nothing else interesting whatsoever to talk about in here?

[emoviefan]

13 minutes ago, Eric Ross said:

It's been like...5 pages of "Captain Marvel was only popular because Endgame" arguments over and over and over and over ad nauseum? Aren't you guys even a little bit tired? Do you really have nothing else interesting whatsoever to talk about in here?

 Nope no they don't.  Still 7 weeks from release. Ugh. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

 

To flag something I think literally goes without saying:  if people didn't like the film then you'd expect  "endgame is coming" anticipation to be expressed in ways other than tickets to CM and while I think the film's legs are exaggerated by this Endgame impact, if you remove it the film's legs are perfectly fine. 

 

This is the 10% bump:

 

Apr 5, 2019	5	$12,431,803	-40%	3,573	$3,479	$373,883,366	5
Apr 12, 2019	6	$8,611,527	-31%	2,975	$2,895	$386,525,108	6
Apr 19, 2019	4	$9,105,610	+6%	2,653	$3,432	$400,031,743	7
Apr 26, 2019	2	$8,312,751	-9%	2,435	$3,414	$413,841,798	8
May 3, 2019	5	$4,282,244	-48%	2,243	$1,909	$420,774,262	9

 

The change in legs is 100% bleed-over from Endgame anticipation. The increased box office here is above and beyond generic word of mouth impacts (which would have been expressed in the film's opening month legs.. 

 

 

4 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

Captain Marvel had little to no connection to Endgame.

 

If Captain Marvel wasn't a dumb political football, no one would be denying that the film's synergy with Endgame was a major selling point for the film. Now, if they couldn't sell the Endgame connection, Disney/Marvel would be spent more marketing muscle to figure out an alternative primary/secondary hook for the film. They're just not independent variables.

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, The GOAT said:

The Marvels - Flop

Aquaman 2 - Flop

Deadpool 3 - Underperforms

Venom 3 - Lower than Venom 2

Captain America 4 - Flop

Kraven - Bomb

Madame Web - Bomb

ThunderBolts - Flop

Joker 2 - Less than the first one

 

 

Joker 2 will make $1b, but it's not even a superhero movie. The rest will underperform/flop.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, The GOAT said:

The Marvels - Flop

Aquaman 2 - Flop

Deadpool 3 - Underperforms

Venom 3 - Lower than Venom 2

Captain America 4 - Flop

Kraven - Bomb

Madame Web - Bomb

ThunderBolts - Flop

Joker 2 - Less than the first one

 

 

Agree with everything, but what is "underperform" for Deadpool? Because anything over $900M is not an underperformance. Are you expecting sub $800M? 

[TheFlatLannister]

Joker 2 is defintely making less than its predecessor (Probably like $800M). The first film is the textbook definition of a lighting in a bottle BO run. Add that with eroding interest in CBMs and a rumored musical and I think a sizeable drop is inevitable. 

[Bob Train]

The first Joker wasn't boosted by China like most other 2013-2019 CBMs were, so it has that going for it.

[Human]

2 hours ago, Eric Ross said:

It's been like...5 pages of "Captain Marvel was only popular because Endgame" arguments over and over and over and over ad nauseum? Aren't you guys even a little bit tired? Do you really have nothing else interesting whatsoever to talk about in here?

Nope

[Arlborn]

3 hours ago, The GOAT said:

The Marvels - Flop

Aquaman 2 - Flop

Deadpool 3 - Underperforms

Venom 3 - Lower than Venom 2

Captain America 4 - Flop

Kraven - Bomb

Madame Web - Bomb

ThunderBolts - Flop

Joker 2 - Less than the first one

 

 

The Marvels - 600M

Aquaman 2 - 850M

Deadpool 3 - 1.1B

Venom 3 - Sameish as Venom 2

Captain America 4 - Sameish as Cap 1

Kraven - Bomb

Madame Web - Flop

ThunderBolts - Eternals 2.0

Joker 2 - 1.3B

[The GOAT]

4 hours ago, The GOAT said:

The Marvels - Flop

Aquaman 2 - Flop

Deadpool 3 - Underperforms

Venom 3 - Lower than Venom 2

Captain America 4 - Flop

Kraven - Bomb

Madame Web - Bomb

ThunderBolts - Flop

Joker 2 - Less than the first one

 

 

The first Joker had monster legs domestically and overseas.

And personally, I just think Deadpool is annoying as hell. 

[ChipDerby]

3 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

 

To flag something I think literally goes without saying:  if people didn't like the film then you'd expect  "endgame is coming" anticipation to be expressed in ways other than tickets to CM and while I think the film's legs are exaggerated by this Endgame impact, if you remove it the film's legs are perfectly fine. 

 

This is the 10% bump:

 

Apr 5, 2019	5	$12,431,803	-40%	3,573	$3,479	$373,883,366	5
Apr 12, 2019	6	$8,611,527	-31%	2,975	$2,895	$386,525,108	6
Apr 19, 2019	4	$9,105,610	+6%	2,653	$3,432	$400,031,743	7
Apr 26, 2019	2	$8,312,751	-9%	2,435	$3,414	$413,841,798	8
May 3, 2019	5	$4,282,244	-48%	2,243	$1,909	$420,774,262	9

 

The change in legs is 100% bleed-over from Endgame anticipation. The increased box office here is above and beyond generic word of mouth impacts (which would have been expressed in the film's opening month legs.. 

 

 

 

If Captain Marvel wasn't a dumb political football, no one would be denying that the film's synergy with Endgame was a major selling point for the film. Now, if they couldn't sell the Endgame connection, Disney/Marvel would be spent more marketing muscle to figure out an alternative primary/secondary hook for the film. They're just not independent variables.

 

 

You got me, it had two weekends with an Endgame bump. Probably made an extra $10 mil from that. I am owned.

[WorkingonaName]

 

35 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

And personally, I just think Deadpool is annoying as hell. 

Ruined by reddit. 

[Claire of Themyscira]

3 hours ago, Eric Ross said:

It's been like...5 pages of "Captain Marvel was only popular because Endgame" arguments over and over and over and over ad nauseum? Aren't you guys even a little bit tired? Do you really have nothing else interesting whatsoever to talk about in here?

I rather not talk about this shit at all! But, this is one of the more active threads, so I dipped in.

[Chaz]

I don’t understand how Joker 2 wrapped filming in April and it’s still over a year away from release.

[Porthos]

41 minutes ago, Chaz said:

I don’t understand how Joker 2 wrapped filming in April and it’s still over a year away from release.

 

They want to release it at a specific time of year, and couldn't get it done in time to release it at that window in '23.  Stupid, I know, but there you are.

[PlatnumRoyce]

12 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

I am owned.

Take a step back and realize that we're currently debating a 2-3% or a ~10% impact. That's a really goofy place to have "I got pwned/your attempt at pwning me failed" posturing. "Adjusted only for theatrical release date, did GotG2 or Captain Marvel have a better run" is just not something people would treat as a moral issue but for the weird culture war baggage attached to Captain Marvel.

 

Yes, I think the fact that Captain Marvel randomly made 25M instead of a projectable ~12M across 2 weeks (or ~30 versus 15 adding in another week on the backend) matters for this argument. Why would we assume that's the only "Endgame anticipation" bounce simply because it's literally the stuff that's undeniable in raw data? There's no possible conceptual reason for this to work like a light-switch. Audiences pretty self evidently associated Captain Marvel with Endgame and that helped the film skyrocket above and beyond other successful MCU films.
 

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[TheFlatLannister]

13 hours ago, Arlborn said:

The Marvels - 600M

Aquaman 2 - 850M

Deadpool 3 - 1.1B

Venom 3 - Sameish as Venom 2

Captain America 4 - Sameish as Cap 1

Kraven - Bomb

Madame Web - Flop

ThunderBolts - Eternals 2.0

Joker 2 - 1.3B

I’m not convinced joker is going to stay flat or even increase with no real pull. The first one had the novelty factor going for it. Had Deadpool 3 not been a MCU cameo event, I also think that would have decrease by a good amount. 

[Arlborn]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I’m not convinced joker is going to stay flat or even increase with no real pull. The first one had the novelty factor going for it. Had Deadpool 3 not been a MCU cameo event, I also think that would have decrease by a good amount. 

 

I don’t know, I think Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn and it being a musical might just be the novelty type of combination that turns out to be genius. We will see though 

[SpiderByte]

17 hours ago, Eric Ross said:

It's been like...5 pages of "Captain Marvel was only popular because Endgame" arguments over and over and over and over ad nauseum? Aren't you guys even a little bit tired? Do you really have nothing else interesting whatsoever to talk about in here?

Don't point out that Ant-Man 2 came out immediately after Endgame and did not see a similar huge boost they claim Captain Marvel got almost a full year after Infinity War came our