The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[SpiderByte]

Cinemascore isn't critical response though. There are movies that suck ass with great cinemascore and vice versa. Gran Turismo got an A, are you gonna seriously claim it's more popular than Multiverse of Madness based on that?

Edited September 27, 2023 by SpiderByte

[SpiderByte]

20 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

think is delusional to expect a MCU movie to suddenly push The Flash numbers, people are being weird about The Marvels,

Weirdly everyone's guesses have gone down by like 150 mil since after Dune moved away. I have no idea why.

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Weirdly everyone's guesses have gone down by like 150 mil since after Dune moved away. I have no idea why.

They haven't. Many were predicting $400m or less even before Dune moved. 

[HummingLemon]

30 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Cinemascore isn't critical response though. There are movies that suck ass with great cinemascore and vice versa. Gran Turismo got an A, are you gonna seriously claim it's more popular than Multiverse of Madness based on that?

I was talking about audience reception. OW of GOTG 3 was muted due to the meh audience reception of the past couple of MCU projects.

[Kalo]

So this movie looks ok. was not a big fan of Captain Marvel though, but I'll probably see it. I'm thinking $200-$250m dom. which would be fine.. imo. or would that be bomb territory? I just don't see any scenario where this tops $300m at this pount.  

[HummingLemon]

Unless Aquaman is a complete masterpiece ATSV is basically locked as the highest grossing CBM of the year dom. There's a better chance at ITSV domestic > Marvels domestic than ATSV domestic < Marvels domestic

Edited September 27, 2023 by HummingLemon

[B D Joe]

Quorum has this between where Quantumania and GOTG 3 were at the same point in their tracking. An opening between those two sounds right to me.

[toutvabien]

Only way this does worse than Quantumania is if it gets Quantumania level response.

[SpiderByte]

4 hours ago, B D Joe said:

Quorum has this between where Quantumania and GOTG 3 were at the same point in their tracking. An opening between those two sounds right to me.

They only opened about 10 million apart iirc, and Quorums reliability doesn't seem super consistent. I think that between Guardians and Quantumania will be more accurate in terms of its legs tho 

[Valonqar]

Reviews don't mean shit if audience disagrees or simply has no interest in a movie even with glowing reviews. Mario was rotten on RT yet smoked critically raved Spiderverse because more people both dom and OS were interested in animated Mario than animated Spidey. OS in particular didn't really care for such version of Spiderman. But Mario didn't have live action tradition so it was right up everyone's alley in animated form. But if we went with reviews alone, Mario should have bombed and Spideerverse made Barbie numbers. 

 

Likewise, GOTG Vol 3 had somewhat muted critical reception compared to the first movie (forgot about second one's reception) but audience reception far exceeded critical one. Not that critical one was bad but was more "it's fine" rather than "what a great movie". But audience was in the latter group hence amazing WOM. 

 

Just saying that reviews don't always save or sink a movie.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Valonqar

[Human]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Reviews don't mean shit if audience disagrees or simply has no interest in a movie even with glowing reviews. Mario was rotten on RT yet smoked critically raved Spiderverse because more people both dom and OS were interested in animated Mario than animated Spidey. OS in particular didn't really care for such version of Spiderman. But Mario didn't have live action tradition so it was right up everyone's alley in animated form. But if we went with reviews alone, Mario should have bombed and Spideerverse made Barbie numbers. 

 

Likewise, GOTG Vol 3 had somewhat muted critical reception compared to the first movie (forgot about second one's reception) but audience reception far exceeded critical one. Not that critical one was bad but was more "it's fine" rather than "what a great movie". But audience was in the latter group hence amazing WOM. 

 

Just saying that reviews don't always save or sink a movie.

Spider-verse put up amazing numbers on a 10 budget.

 

Reviews destroy a movie only when they are below a ten like with Fan4stic.  

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Human said:

Spider-verse put up amazing numbers on a 10 budget.

 

Reviews destroy a movie only when they are below a ten like with Fan4stic.  

 

I'm not disputing that Spuderverse was a successs. It just wasn't nearly as big success as Mario if we go by reviews only. It was raved, Mario wasn't yet more people bought tickets for Mario and lets not forget that many of those tickets were for kids so lower price. Mario slayed in spite of unfavorable reviews.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

 

I'm not disputing that Spuderverse was a successs. It just wasn't nearly as big success as Mario if we go by reviews only. It was raved, Mario wasn't yet more people bought tickets for Mario and let’s not forget that many of those tickets were for kids so lower price. Mario slayed in spite of unfavorable reviews.

In fairness, there’s a lot of similarities to Mario and the majority of the Disney Renaissance remakes. It didn’t have to be good, but rather just appeal to nostalgia.

[toutvabien]

The first Black Panther did $523M OS w/o China and Russia. Wakanda Forever was at $389M before its uneventful Chinese release, where it did just $15M.

The first Captain Marvel did $527M OS w/o China and Russia. If The Marvels is to release in China, it could do anywhere between Quantumania ($39M) and GOTG 3 ($87M) or anything really at this point.

A BP-WF level drop gets this to $275M domestic and about $670M worldwide before China.

[Valonqar]

13 minutes ago, YM! said:

In fairness, there’s a lot of similarities to Mario and the majority of the Disney Renaissance remakes. It didn’t have to be good, but rather just appeal to nostalgia.

 

Great point! 

 

 

[Deep Wang]

26 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Reviews don't mean shit if audience disagrees or simply has no interest in a movie even with glowing reviews. Mario was rotten on RT yet smoked critically raved Spiderverse because more people both dom and OS were interested in animated Mario than animated Spidey. OS in particular didn't really care for such version of Spiderman. But Mario didn't have live action tradition so it was right up everyone's alley in animated form. But if we went with reviews alone, Mario should have bombed and Spideerverse made Barbie numbers. 

 

Likewise, GOTG Vol 3 had somewhat muted critical reception compared to the first movie (forgot about second one's reception) but audience reception far exceeded critical one. Not that critical one was bad but was more "it's fine" rather than "what a great movie". But audience was in the latter group hence amazing WOM. 

 

Just saying that reviews don't always save or sink a movie.

 

You are way over-simplifying how important reviews are. 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Quantumania presales started off very strong and then died off when the bad reviews came out.  Then on the other hand, GOTG3 started off kinda tepid until the good reviews rolled in.  Then it definitely was up to the audience reception and we know how that went.  Not going to say your wrong about audience reception mattering, just that the baseline start after good or bad reviews really shifts the starting point for that reception.  

 

We don't have enough data to show it, but just from the universal rejection of Quantumania to the really slow start to GOTG3, the general public for the MCU might be at the 'wait for reviews' phase and not just storming out for everything just because. 

 

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

You are way over-simplifying how important reviews are. 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Quantumania presales started off very strong and then died off when the bad reviews came out.  Then on the other hand, GOTG3 started off kinda tepid until the good reviews rolled in.  Then it definitely was up to the audience reception and we know how that went.  Not going to say your wrong about audience reception mattering, just that the baseline start after good or bad reviews really shifts the starting point for that reception.  

 

We don't have enough data to show it, but just from the universal rejection of Quantumania to the really slow start to GOTG3, the general public for the MCU might be at the 'wait for reviews' phase and not just storming out for everything just because. 

 

Would say quantumania had started cooling off before reviews hit but they sure as hell didn't help

[Bob Train]

Why didn't Disney move The Marvels 1 week up? That would have lengthened the PLF window and alleviated the 2nd weekend drop.

[ZeroHour]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

Why didn't Disney move The Marvels 1 week up? That would have lengthened the PLF window and alleviated the 2nd weekend drop.

A few things probably. They're not worried about Hunger Games, they want to maximize the chances that the strikes end in time for a promo tour, and they want to stay relatively close to Thanksgiving so the film still has juice over the holidays.

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Quantumania presales started off very strong and then died off when the bad reviews came out.  Then on the other hand, GOTG3 started off kinda tepid until the good reviews rolled in.  Then it definitely was up to the audience reception and we know how that went.  Not going to say your wrong about audience reception mattering, just that the baseline start after good or bad reviews really shifts the starting point for that reception.  

Not quite correct, as AMWQ had pretty weak sales pace after the opening surge. The poor reviews only pushed it down further, to one of (the?) worst finishes for an MCU Thursday 

 

The common thread is that the previous MCU fare appears to have pushed more people into wait-for-reviews/WOM camp, and I would expect Marvels to have a similarly tepid start to presales, but with potential to recover for OW and beyond