john2000 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Is that a challenge Warner? DEW IT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said: 104k admits Final PS in South Korea It's more OD loaded than usual. Expecting 150-160k OD. Low end 925k 5 Days while high end would go 1.05mn admits. In $ that's $1.2-1.3mn OD, $7.5-8.5mn weekend + $715k previews. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 Singapore Wednesday Final PS GV Cinemas (13 Locs 142 Shows) Gold Class: 338 admits (S$14,091) Deluxe: 37 admits (S$786) D Box: 30 admits (S$360) Regular: 1252 admits (S$12,332) Total: 1657 admits (S$27,569) Eagle Wing Cinemas (1 Loc 4 Shows) Platinum: 24 admits (S$624) Gold: 16 admits (S$352) Total: 40 admits (S$976) Total: 1697 admits (S$28,545) Other chains; Cathay: 8 Locs 51 shows Shaw: 7 Locs 72 shows Overall pre-sales should be S$50k. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Singapore Wednesday Final PS GV Cinemas (13 Locs 142 Shows) Gold Class: 338 admits (S$14,091) Deluxe: 37 admits (S$786) D Box: 30 admits (S$360) Regular: 1252 admits (S$12,332) Total: 1657 admits (S$27,569) Eagle Wing Cinemas (1 Loc 4 Shows) Platinum: 24 admits (S$624) Gold: 16 admits (S$352) Total: 40 admits (S$976) Total: 1697 admits (S$28,545) Other chains; Cathay: 8 Locs 51 shows Shaw: 7 Locs 72 shows Overall pre-sales should be S$50k. good ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 (edited) My Weekend expectations South Korea: $7mn UK: $5-8mn Germany: $5-6mn France: $5-6mn Spain: $3mn Taiwan: $3mn plus perhaps Australia: $2.5mn (including previews perhaps $3mn+) Italy: $2mn Singapore: $1.5mn Rest of Europe: $5-6mn perhaps Rest: $3-5mn Total: $42-50mn Let's see Edited August 26, 2020 by charlie Jatinder 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: My Weekend expectations South Korea: $9mn Germany: $5mn UK: $4mn France: $4mn Taiwan: $3mn plus perhaps Australia: $2.5mn (including previews perhaps $3mn+) Singapore: $1.5mn Rest of Europe: $8-10mn perhaps Rest: $3-6mn Total: $40-45mn Let's see Don't how many theater that already open in UK but if Germany 1st WE > UK 1st WE. It will be I believe 1st Nolan movie that UK 1st WE isn't the biggest 1st WE for Europe. Also there are still Russia, Japan, Brazil and of course China for more big market. Does this movie already have release dates for Mexico too ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, RJ 95 said: Don't how many theater that already open in UK but if Germany 1st WE > UK 1st WE. It will be I believe 1st Nolan movie that UK 1st WE isn't the biggest 1st WE for Europe. Also there are still Russia, Japan, Brazil and of course China for more big market. Does this movie already have release dates for Mexico too ? 11 sept 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 (edited) 18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: My Weekend expectations South Korea: $9mn Germany: $5mn UK: $4mn France: $4mn Taiwan: $3mn plus perhaps Australia: $2.5mn (including previews perhaps $3mn+) Singapore: $1.5mn Rest of Europe: $8-10mn perhaps Rest: $3-6mn Total: $40-45mn Let's see what do you think the final total os with china will be if your ow prediction holds ? Edited August 25, 2020 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Seems such unfortunated timing for TENET tbh, atleast in china and South korea. In china a lockal break out movie will be taking up lots of screens for quite a while. And it's release in SK came right at the time of new small out break so it lost quite a bit of seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Ahh, it’s been so long since I’ve commented in an OS movie specific thread. If it does open to 40-45 in those markets I wonder what kind of legs we’d get. Finish in the mid-high 100s maybe? Then China plays a big role in final OS total, as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said: Ahh, it’s been so long since I’ve commented in an OS movie specific thread. If it does open to 40-45 in those markets I wonder what kind of legs we’d get. Finish in the mid-high 100s maybe? Then China plays a big role in final OS total, as usual. first lets see in how many markets tenet wil be released this week, deadline said that tenet will release in 40 markets this weekend, with many other markets joining in sept, imo if tenet does open in 40-45 ow from 40 markets and without majors like brazil/mexico/japan and russsia (all of these markets will have tenet in their theaters in sept) that would be very very good especiallly if we consider that theaters wont be with their full capacity something that will affect tenets ow but probably/hopefully not the long run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Horror of Lucas Films Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 (edited) If it opens at $40m, I think it can finish at $160m from these markets alone. China may bring $60m $80m DOM And $100m from the rest of markets, Japan alone may bring around $20m-$30m. Anything above $400m WW is a win for this, considering it will have far stronger numbers on secondary markets DOM than the usual Nolan movie, considering the limitations that it will face at cinemas, and that Warner will get a higher % from OS markets. Edited August 25, 2020 by The Horror of Lucas Films 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said: If it opens at $40m, I think it can finish at $160m from these markets alone. China may bring $60m $80m DOM And $100m from the rest of markets, Japan alone may bring around $20m-$30m. Anything above $400m WW is a win for this, considering it will have far stronger numbers on secondary markets DOM than the usual Nolan movie, considering the limitations that it will face at cinemas, and that Warner will get a higher % from OS markets. i think its too early to even predict, lets remember that while tenet by sept will most likely be released in the majority of the os markets and all of the majors one, it still has other markets left, plus lets not forget that both california and new york will be able to play tenet eventually like some other us states that wont be able to get it at first ps about new york after cuomo said in an interview that he thinks movie theaters could be the next to reopen and considering the progress they have made already in my opinion i think that its possible that new york will be back in the game middle to late sept or at least i hope , new york has 300 movie theaters by its own and its the sec major us market i think so it could give a big boost Edited August 25, 2020 by john2000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 29 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said: If it opens at $40m, I think it can finish at $160m from these markets alone. China may bring $60m $80m DOM And $100m from the rest of markets, Japan alone may bring around $20m-$30m. Anything above $400m WW is a win for this, considering it will have far stronger numbers on secondary markets DOM than the usual Nolan movie, considering the limitations that it will face at cinemas, and that Warner will get a higher % from OS markets. That specific ratio (and assuming that Wb gets exactly 63% from DOM, 50% from OS-China, and the usual 25% from China) would honestly bring it pretty close to 200 mil. Might even be over the production budget based on how underbudget Nolan went here. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Horror of Lucas Films Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: That specific ratio (and assuming that Wb gets exactly 63% from DOM, 50% from OS-China, and the usual 25% from China) would honestly bring it pretty close to 200 mil. Might even be over the production budget based on how underbudget Nolan went here. Exactly, that's the math I'm doing too, and that's why I believe that $400m should be the goal for this movie, the marketing costs can be recovered in the secondary markets, considering that Nolan movies always play strong there, let alone this one that will have it's numbers deflated by the current scenario. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said: If it opens at $40m, I think it can finish at $160m from these markets alone. China may bring $60m $80m DOM And $100m from the rest of markets, Japan alone may bring around $20m-$30m. Anything above $400m WW is a win for this, considering it will have far stronger numbers on secondary markets DOM than the usual Nolan movie, considering the limitations that it will face at cinemas, and that Warner will get a higher % from OS markets. It really depends on WOM I believe but WOM is not even need to be great, just good enough for some multiple viewing. This week I hope it can get at least 40m, but I think chance for 50m is still good if there is good WOM to carry. Then finish 180m. For China, 60-75m is a good target. Also Domestic market with 100m and rest of the market with 100m. That brings to 440m. With good WOM in SK, China and USA it may bring it into 500m. Those 3 market is the most vital market I think. Edited August 25, 2020 by RJ 95 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Horror of Lucas Films Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 It seems that Spain will overperform: Quote TENET and New Mutants Pre-sales in 4 theaters (D-DAY) TENET - 727/3.476 tickets (20.49% sold) (+412 tickets) New Mutants - 76/727 (10.45% sold) (+61 tickets) Really impressed with TENET numbers, pretty solid. New Mutants is overperforming in one of the theaters with 40% sold so the data is a bit skewed. Deadline posted 2M for TENET in Spain in 5-days but I'm expecting more, €3M+. New Mutants is a wild card but could do 750K€ 5-day probably. Data is difficult to extrapolate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 https://variety.com/2020/film/asia/hong-kong-cinemas-reopen-virus-recedes-1234748814/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Europe looking good so far: Both france, germany and uk are looking over 5m +. From the respective threads (or main forum page). France has a shot at 1m admission (would be around 7/8m). Germany 6-7m UK (2/3m opening day possibly, would lead to 9-12ish million) Spain 3m + Ofc everyone want good numbers at to moment (first majoor hollywood movie release, so we might have rose glasses) so these might be on the opimitic side (who knows) but it seems certain that OW will be decent at least. Above estimates (using the low numbers) would put it at $25m. So the low end should be around $18m OW for these markets, high end $30m. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 All across world IMAX seems to be pushing the film. Now that may sound well or Trivial but IMO this could be sign of frontloading as the ones watching film in premium format would be mostly Nolan heads. Fans can push film only to an extent. Film must do well in regular format/screens i.e. general audience too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...