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Eric the Extra-Terrestrial

93rd Academy Award Nominations Thread

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Anthony Hopkins might pull off an upset. A crapton of voters seems to be voting for him.

 

Judas is also consistently making it into the top 3 for Best Picture in these anonymous ballots. Nomadland gets a bunch 1st places but also doesn't make it into the top 3 more often than I expected. I doubt Judas is winning due to the lack of precursor wins (and Nomadland has just been sweeping there) but could be a runner-up.

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27 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Anthony Hopkins might pull off an upset. A crapton of voters seems to be voting for him.

 

Judas is also consistently making it into the top 3 for Best Picture in these anonymous ballots. Nomadland gets a bunch 1st places but also doesn't make it into the top 3 more often than I expected. I doubt Judas is winning due to the lack of precursor wins (and Nomadland has just been sweeping there) but could be a runner-up.

Hopkins playing a heavy oscar-bait character in a more relatable condition to Academy's older voters. (Remember how Amour surprised major nomination thanks to its close-to-voter subject matter.) Hopkins' surge probably cost more Riz Ahmed's vote than boseman.  Boseman's lifetime achievement Oscar narrative is too big to overcome. 

 

As for Judas potential upset, it is very unlikely and those "leaked" ballot is nothing more than a white noise since Judas isn't a frontrunner in original screenplay category. Nomadland backlash is not picking up stem to trigger massive number of voters to sabotage it at #7 or #8 position.     

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I finally watched The Father the other day (checking out Minari tonight to conclude my Oscar watching) and Hopkins might give the best performance of anyone in that category, edging out Ahmed and Boseman. Boseman will prevail at the Oscars though because that narrative is set in stone at this point, but I have to imagine Hopkins would've given him plenty of competition if he were still with us, and all three would make for worthy winners IMO (Oldman is great in Mank too and I'm gonna be checking out Yeun later).

 

Meanwhile, as for the opposite of the Oscars...

 

 

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3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Boseman will prevail at the Oscars though because that narrative is set in stone at this point

Yeah, but a lot of voters are choosing Hopkins because of the narrative. They think Boseman will still win even if they vote for Hopkins so they vote for the latter. Boseman losing the Spirit awards even with the narrative might be an indicator of how things will go. I wouldn't bet on Hopkins winning, but feels like it's a closer race than people think.

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14 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Just found out tonight is oscar night...hahahahahaha..lmao. Like this must be the most low key oscars ever. Don't even know a single nominee. Must have been shit year for oscar type films.

There's actually a lot of really good movies/performances up this year, having watched them all. But movies, like pretty much all other entertainment, has been rendered trivial while we've been battling a pandemic (along with everything else that's been happening in the world). Also not the sunniest group of nominees, hence why none then have actually caught on despite being available at home. The inability to have a room full of famous people interacting has also sucked the fun out of everything.

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21 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yeah, but a lot of voters are choosing Hopkins because of the narrative. They think Boseman will still win even if they vote for Hopkins so they vote for the latter. Boseman losing the Spirit awards even with the narrative might be an indicator of how things will go. I wouldn't bet on Hopkins winning, but feels like it's a closer race than people think.

Honestly having now seen The Father, even though it could be argued that its Oscar-baity, Hopkins’ performance is by far the strongest out of the nominees, and while I do like Boseman and he’s undoubtedly good, his performance is probably the “least great”. For me it’d go:

 

1) Anthony Hopkins

2) Riz Ahmed

3) Steven Yeun

4) Gary Oldman

5) Chadwick Boseman

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