Best Picture Predictions - 2021

[Eric Prime]

The Oscars ended two days ago, might as well start things up again.

[FilmFincher]

Soggy Bottom - Paul Thomas Anderson

The Tragedy of Macbeth -  Joel Coen

Untitled David O. Russell Project

The French Dispatch - Wes Anderson

House of Gucci - Ridley Scott

West Side Story - Steven Spielberg

Don’t Look Up - Adam McKay

Next Goal Wins - Taika Waititi

The Power of the Dog - Jane Campion

Nightmare Alley - Guillermo Del Toro

 

From this far out these are the ones on my radar.

Biggest problem I have is that it's an extremely white male line up so I'm expecting some smaller films to hopefully punch their way through. 

 

I reckon Nightmare Alley is the 'niche' pick that wins out over the others; The Northman, Last Night in Soho, 'Don't Worry, Darling', The Green Knight, Annette etc. I think there's only room for one and from here I've gotta go with Del Toro. 

 

West Side Story will win the battle of the musicals; 'Tick, Tick, Boom', In the Heights. Mostly because Spielberg's direction and release date will help dominate the others. 

 

House of Gucci is already generating buzz and I think will capture a certain zeitgeist with the description of 'big budget soap opera'. It'll win the Ridley Scott battle. 

 

Amazing year coming up for Adam Driver, after dominating 2019 he's set to do it again. Annette, The Last Duel, House of Gucci. Could see dual nominations for supporting and best with the Ridley Scott films. 

 

Same goes for Timothée Chalamet who's appearing in Dune, The French Dispatch and Don't Look Up. I'm not too sure about Dune's oscar chances, I reckon it's going to be too somber and too unresolved narratively to be considered but I'd love to be proven wrong.  

 

People have been predicting a swing the other way. After a year of small films that a lot of people didn't see the return of blockbusters to the cinema is a cause for celebration, so we might see some bigger films get nominated which would be interesting. 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by FilmFincher

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Wondering if there is room for both In the Heights and West Side Story, if it will be a "there can only be one" situation, or if they will almost cancel each other out? Like this season, I think One Night In Miami or Ma Rainey's Black Bottom would have gotten more nominations in an alternate universe where they weren't competing against each other. 

 

Will the Golden Globes even happen next year? The HFPA is a mess right now and need to get it together, but it would be a shame if the Globes are canceled in a year a musical-heavy year.

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Will the Golden Globes even happen next year? The HFPA is a mess right now and need to get it together, but it would be a shame if the Globes are canceled in a year a musical-heavy year.

The only way the Globes will be cancelled is if celebrities just flat-out refuse to attend anymore, and that's unlikely to happen (regardless of potentially shady nominees) since people want their awards. With all the bad publicity they've endured the past few months they'll hopefully work overtime between now and the end of the year to not only make their membership more diverse but to get actual journalists in the organization and not people only looking to hang out with big Hollywood stars.

[titanic2187]

Meryl streep has been absent for 3 years, must be a torture for academy members not to nominate her. If she missed this year, I think this will be her career record.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

The only way the Globes will be cancelled is if celebrities just flat-out refuse to attend anymore, and that's unlikely to happen (regardless of potentially shady nominees) since people want their awards. With all the bad publicity they've endured the past few months they'll hopefully work overtime between now and the end of the year to not only make their membership more diverse but to get actual journalists in the organization and not people only looking to hang out with big Hollywood stars.

They have time to get themselves together, but it's not looking good right now:

 

 

[Barnack]

41 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

They have time to get themselves together, but it's not looking good right now:

 

That one in that list was a bit funny:

April 20 — HFPA’s Crisis Communications Firm Quits

 

When your crisis communications firm quits on you, that quite the signal.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

34 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That one in that list was a bit funny:

April 20 — HFPA’s Crisis Communications Firm Quits

 

When your crisis communications firm quits on you, that quite the signal.

 

The CEO of that crisis PR firm is the woman who inspired Scandal. So basically, the HFPA is such a mess that "Olivia Pope" has washed her hands of them. Think about that: the woman has dealt with political shenanigans in the White House, but the Golden Globes are too much of a disaster, even for her. Amazing...

 

 

House of Gucci is either sweeping the Oscars or the Razzies...

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

They have time to get themselves together, but it's not looking good right now:

 

 

I personally can't complain too much about the Golden Globes when they're perhaps the only major awards show that has given a number of my faves their only televised awards (plus picked up the best souvenir I've ever left the Disney parks with when I took a selfie with an awesome recent Globe winner during a surprise encounter on my last pre-COVID Disney World vacation lol) but after all the bad press the HFPA has received these past few months I would be perfectly fine with them just disappearing into thin air, never to be seen or heard from again. All that drama and the mess that was this weekend's Oscar ceremony are good examples for people to look to when they want to make a point about how these awards shows and organizations really are out of touch these days.

[filmlover]

10 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Meryl streep has been absent for 3 years, must be a torture for academy members not to nominate her. If she missed this year, I think this will be her career record.

Actually looking at her Oscar track record the 2010s was actually her most productive decade since the 80s (5 nominations compared to 4 each for the 90s and '00s). She does go through Oscar dry spells every now and then. Season 2 of Big Little Lies is the juiciest role she's taken on since her latest nomination.

[titanic2187]

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

Actually looking at her Oscar track record the 2010s was actually her most productive decade since the 80s (5 nominations compared to 4 each for the 90s and '00s). She does go through Oscar dry spells every now and then. Season 2 of Big Little Lies is the juiciest role she's taken on since her latest nomination.

She has been delivering multiple overacting works in the past decade since Julie Julia. In Iron Lady, she acted too much and that make her performance so out of place in many scenes. In august osage, she spread her overacting skills to the rest of the ensemble cast and make the whole film look like an acting audition in the form of stageplay. I didn't watch Florence and i think her work in the post is a better works in 2010s. 

 

I hope voters can consider other actress before really going for her.  

[lorddemaxus]

On 4/28/2021 at 9:40 PM, titanic2187 said:

Meryl streep has been absent for 3 years, must be a torture for academy members not to nominate her. If she missed this year, I think this will be her career record.

Don't Look Up is probably DOA, but I think Streep's nom is almost guaranteed. She's basically playing a female Trump in the movie and it sounds dumb, but seems like the kind of role voters will love.

[lorddemaxus]

On 4/28/2021 at 11:13 AM, FilmFincher said:

Soggy Bottom - Paul Thomas Anderson

The Tragedy of Macbeth -  Joel Coen

Untitled David O. Russell Project

The French Dispatch - Wes Anderson

House of Gucci - Ridley Scott

West Side Story - Steven Spielberg

Don’t Look Up - Adam McKay

Next Goal Wins - Taika Waititi

The Power of the Dog - Jane Campion

Nightmare Alley - Guillermo Del Toro

You don't think a blockbuster will get nominated, especially after such a unemderwhelming year? I think Dune is likely getting a nomination. Its going to be the big tech contender of the year and unlike BR2049, it wont have a film like Dunkirk releasing the same year. 

 

Also, your list has 5 Fox films and I don't think one studio has gotten 5 BP noms in the same year. I think the O. Russell project (he's definitely having an expose coming out soon) and Next Goal Wins aren't getting anywhere. Also, the screenplay for Don't Look Up is giving me doubts that it'll be big. I know Vice did well, but Vice released very late and got carried by pre-release buzz. 

Edited April 30, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[titanic2187]

On 4/28/2021 at 3:13 PM, FilmFincher said:

Soggy Bottom - Paul Thomas Anderson

The Tragedy of Macbeth -  Joel Coen

Untitled David O. Russell Project

The French Dispatch - Wes Anderson

House of Gucci - Ridley Scott

West Side Story - Steven Spielberg

Don’t Look Up - Adam McKay

Next Goal Wins - Taika Waititi

The Power of the Dog - Jane Campion

Nightmare Alley - Guillermo Del Toro

 

From this far out these are the ones on my radar.

Biggest problem I have is that it's an extremely white male line up so I'm expecting some smaller films to hopefully punch their way through. 

 

I reckon Nightmare Alley is the 'niche' pick that wins out over the others; The Northman, Last Night in Soho, 'Don't Worry, Darling', The Green Knight, Annette etc. I think there's only room for one and from here I've gotta go with Del Toro. 

 

West Side Story will win the battle of the musicals; 'Tick, Tick, Boom', In the Heights. Mostly because Spielberg's direction and release date will help dominate the others. 

 

House of Gucci is already generating buzz and I think will capture a certain zeitgeist with the description of 'big budget soap opera'. It'll win the Ridley Scott battle. 

 

Amazing year coming up for Adam Driver, after dominating 2019 he's set to do it again. Annette, The Last Duel, House of Gucci. Could see dual nominations for supporting and best with the Ridley Scott films. 

 

Same goes for Timothée Chalamet who's appearing in Dune, The French Dispatch and Don't Look Up. I'm not too sure about Dune's oscar chances, I reckon it's going to be too somber and too unresolved narratively to be considered but I'd love to be proven wrong.  

 

People have been predicting a swing the other way. After a year of small films that a lot of people didn't see the return of blockbusters to the cinema is a cause for celebration, so we might see some bigger films get nominated which would be interesting. 

 

 

Too many works from known name. Looking back all the BP nominees in recent year, almost half of the BP are directed from the relatively unknown or less Oscar-friendly director.  Like in this oscar, except from Mank and Trial of Chicago 7, the rest of the movie are directed by first-time nominees.   

[filmlover]

Dear Evan Hanson is also set to come out this year so that's 4 musicals in the running for at least Golden Globes play (assuming they don't end up swallowed whole from all the controversies). Funny to think that two (or three, since Tick Tick Boom was in the middle of shooting when COVID hit) of them would have come out last year if not for the pandemic, The Prom definitely would've been the one completely lost in the shuffle.

[FilmFincher]

@titanic2187 @lorddemaxus

 

I'm just listing what's on my radar from this far out guys. I'm pretty sure at least half of these will get knocked out and probably end up being underwhelming (A couple will probably fall flat on their face) but all I can do at this point is look at a wikipedia list of films releasing in 2021 and pick the ones that sound 'Oscary' to me. 🤷‍♂️

 

I think like most years, once some festivals happen and the films that don't get buzz years in advance start actually getting buzz we can get an actual idea. 

[FilmFincher]

10 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

You don't think a blockbuster will get nominated, especially after such a unemderwhelming year?

I'm completely on board with a blockbuster resurgence. I definitely think we're gonna see that swing back after such a lack of big movies. 

 

I just don't know if Dune has what it takes to get into BP for the reasons listed before. Is it going to feel like a complete film? Is it going to be too contemplative for Academy voters?

 

It's all just "if's" and 'is it?' at this point though. But I just don't know. I'm down the middle with it. I mean out of all the blockbusters releasing Dune, No Time to Die and Eternals are the likely ones to get in right? 

 

Dune seems like it should come out ahead of those on paper. 

 

I just wont know where the academy might land on it until I actually sit in a theatre and get to see it. 

[Eric Prime]

 

[lorddemaxus]

This movie broke out at Sundance but I guess this pretty much kills any chance at Oscar success now (awful distributor):

 

 

[Eric Prime]