Netherlands Box Office Thread.

[LPLC]

6 hours ago, pepsa said:

According to estimates it's at $16m or rougly €13.74m, this would mean a €2.24m weekend or a 5-6% drop even if actuals put it at a 10% drop this is a good hold.

2nd biggest 4th weekend ever in Netherlands. Really great. Now, it should surpass Spectre, right ?

[charlie Jatinder]

I know some week will magically drop here, but seems like €20M possible of these numbers.

[pepsa]

9 hours ago, LPLC said:

2nd biggest 4th weekend ever in Netherlands. Really great. Now, it should surpass Spectre, right ?

 

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I know some week will magically drop here, but seems like €20M possible of these numbers.

 

Here's what I am thinking: this week was holidayweek in the most populated part of the Netherlands so this week when the north is out of school the boost will be less than last week. I am hoping for a €1.6m+ weekend (because of 1st november holiday monday- with a €650k-€700k midweek. For roughly €16m after next weekend. After that it will have a big drop (30%-40%), it has to stay over €1m to reach €20m. So i would say the weekend after the holidays end is the most important indicator for €20m.

 

Spectre would be behind 1.3m after next weekend.

But spectre 6th weekend was:

6th: €1.05m

7th: €650k

8th: €520k (950k week)

9th: €650k (1.3m week)

10th:€525k

So it has to match the 6th weekend cause that 1.3m lead will dissapair during Christmas, that sad spectre did have more competition.

Edited October 25, 2021 by pepsa

[efialtes76]

Weekend(22-24)

No Time To Die €2,155,683/€13,655,944

Venom 2-€585,986/€724,516

Dune-€298,107/€4,535,544

[charlie Jatinder]

1.2M admits in 4 weeks. €14.258.229. €11.9 ATP. 

 

Spectre was €9.3. 

Edited October 28, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[LPLC]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1.2M admits in 4 weeks. €14.258.229. €11.9 ATP. 

 

Spectre was €9.3. 

Where do you think the film will end in terms of admissions and revenues ?

[pepsa]

Weekend 41: 21-24 october

 

1. No Time To Die - €2.155.683 (-9.2%)
2. Venom2 - €585.986 (€724.561 inclueding wednesday OD) Down 52% from its precedor. It didn't even reach half of what the first one did.
3. Dune - €298.107 (+7.1%)
4. The Addams Family 2 - €267.547 (+151.4%)
5. Liefde zonder grenzen (love without borders) - €236.333 (+18.1%)

 

With Venom Let there be carnage entering the market I thought it would have depend the positive effect of the holiday week a bit. In the end it didn't do that, all movies saw healthy increases / drops. This is mostly because of the extremely poor preformance of Venom2, it opened at not even half the first movie did and this during a holiday week. Expecting it to not have great holds and it will probably end up around 2.2m in the end, less than half of the original.

 

Because this incredably weak showing other movies got the enjoy the holidays. NTTD held quite well with €2.15m a drop of 9%, it's advantage over spectre now grew to €782.602. A good hold all in all and it's on it's way to €20m, matching spectre might be possible.

 

Dune had a great hold, thanks to venom it increased 7.1% €5m +  (€5.2m ish)is definity happening. This means it will get a multi over 5, nothing amazing but in context of one of the biggest movies of the past 10 years opening on your 3rd weekend it's a very good result.

 

The Addams Family 2 had an amazing increase, it's over €700k by now, it OW multi is now over 7 (not including previews) after only 3 weeks. It's easily going to out gross it's precedor, I do expect a very big drop in it's 5th weekend, even next weekend might be though. But all in all it's easly going over €1m, expect a total of around €1.2-€1.3m.

 

Liefde zonder grenzen had a good hold, expecting it to hold quite well and it's also aiming for a total of around €1.1m.

 

As for the mid week update:

 

NTTD had a monday through wednesday hault of €600.969 down from €1.1m last week, quite a big drop but expected as southern part has quite a bit less population (than the nother / middelpart combined). With this NTTD leads grows a bit more to €1.06m over spectre. The upcomming weekend is the last weekend were NTTD has a chance to substancialy grow it's lead over Spectre, spectre had a €1.22m 5th weekend, NTTD is looking at €1.4m-€1.8m this weekend with my bet on €1.55-1.6m. It looking very good for a total over €20m.

Edited October 29, 2021 by pepsa

[LPLC]

On 10/26/2021 at 9:45 PM, efialtes76 said:

Weekend(22-24)

No Time To Die €2,155,683/€13,655,944

Venom 2-€585,986/€724,516

Dune-€298,107/€4,535,544

Now, just under €16M for NTTD which added around €2.3M in one week. @pepsa Is it good ? Expected? Not enough ?

[pepsa]

51 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Now, just under €16M for NTTD which added around €2.3M in one week. @pepsa Is it good ? Expected? Not enough ?

After a €601k midweek it points to a €1.55m-€1.6m weekend. I expected 1.6m might be a bit lower, still 350k over what spectre did. The more important thing is what happens next weekend. If it stays over €1m it's fine, over €1.1m good and over €1.2m great. If it dips below the 1m (800k / 900k) than beating spectre would move off the table. Atm it's still on track to go over €20m and beating spectre is still looking doable. The next few weeks are important, this weekend was less so.

[efialtes76]

Weekend 29-31

1 No Time to Die 5 € 1.600.296 /€15.858.858

2  Venom: Let There Be Carnage €387.492 /€1.324.714

3 Dune  € 259.064/€4.908.791

4 The French Dispatch  € 171.027/€513.123

5 Liefde zonder grenzen  € 170.784

6 De grote Sinterklaasfilm: Trammelant in Spanje  € 146.346

7 De Club van Sinterklaas en het vergeten Pietje € 138.311

8 The Addams Family 2  € 137.092 /€940.657

9 Ron's Gone Wrong € 105.544/€667.332

10 Halloween Kills € 89.914/€462.332

11 The Father € 74.738/€2.246.812

Edited November 3, 2021 by efialtes76

[LPLC]

@pepsa Was this weekend good for NTTD ?

[pepsa]

8 hours ago, LPLC said:

@pepsa Was this weekend good for NTTD ?

Yeah it was great! It's going over Spectre in gross for sure!

[LPLC]

5 hours ago, pepsa said:

Yeah it was great! It's going over Spectre in gross for sure!

Is something over €20M still possible for NTTD here ? What's your final prediction after this weekend ?

[pepsa]

Weekend 44: 28-31 october

I am very late as per usual, luckly we have efialtes to keep us updated!

 

1 No Time to Die 5 - € 1.600.296 /€15.858.858 (-25.8%)

2  Venom: Let There Be Carnage - €387.492 /€1.324.714  (-33.9%)

3 Dune -  € 259.064/€4.908.791 (-13.1%)

4 The French Dispatch - € 171.027/€513.123 (-25.1%)

5 Liefde zonder grenzen - € 170.784/€948.038 (-27.7%)

8 The Addams Family 2 - € 137.092 /€940.657 (-48.8%)

 

Bond had a fine hold, i woudn't call it great it was exactly what I had in mind. That said a 26% drop is quite good will easily go for €20m+.

 

Venom had the worst drop in the top 5, still did fine needs a decent drop boosted by the last holiday weekend. In the weekend of 4-7 november to secure a 2m+ finish.

 

Dune had a very good hold, the best hold in the top 10, with this it locks €5.5m Depending on next weekends drop it might have a shot at over €6m+, also weekdays for this movies are quite good.

 

Liefde zonder grenzen had a good drop, it's looking to finish over €1.4m

 

Lastly i wanted to incluede The Addams Family because of the amazing run it had so far, even though it dropped almost 50% this weekend was still 40% bigger than it's opening weekend. The lack of family movies is really helping it but after an OW that was quite a bit lover than the first one it will easly outgross it's precedor.

 

As for the mid week update:

 

NTTD had a monday through wednesday hault of €363k compared to €600.969 from last week, it was helped out by a monday holiday (1st novembre). This again made it extend it's lead vs spectre that only managed to €254.5k in it's 5th midweek. NTTD extended it's lead to €1.544m meaning it's ahead by 10.5%. Spectre had a good 6th weekend drop but a bad 7th one so NTTD should be able to take advantage of the bad 7th weekend. That said spectre 8th and 9th weekend/ week were great because of Christmas. NTTD will probably lose around €1m compared to spectre that said €20m + is completely locked now.

 

Dune had a good midweek it managed to gain €79K sadly this means it missed the €5m mark by just €12k.

Edited November 9, 2021 by pepsa

[pepsa]

27 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Is something over €20M still possible for NTTD here ? What's your final prediction after this weekend ?

We don't have the actuals for this weekend, but using the ER cal it should be €1.178m a very good 6th weekend. Might come in at like €1.1m, this would still be great. Going of the first number I would say that it's looking at atleast €21.5m right now, with a shot at €22m+. My guess would be €22.2m with the market looking empty till the arival of Spidey. That said it's alway possible we get a random big drop (or a breakout local movies) later in movies run so yeah.

Edited November 8, 2021 by pepsa

[LPLC]

4 hours ago, pepsa said:

We don't have the actuals for this weekend, but using the ER cal it should be €1.178m a very good 6th weekend. Might come in at like €1.1m, this would still be great. Going of the first number I would say that it's looking at atleast €21.5m right now, with a shot at €22m+. My guess would be €22.2m with the market looking empty till the arival of Spidey. That said it's alway possible we get a random big drop (or a breakout local movies) later in movies run so yeah.

Wow, amazing ! With €22.2M, NTTD could overtake Bohemian Rhapsody and become the 3rd biggest film in the Netherlands just behind Titanic and TLK. If that happens, how many admissions would that mean for NTTD ?

[pepsa]

Weekend 45: 4-7 November

Well some bad news here...

 

1 No Time to Die  - € 1.024.998 /€17.245.508 (-35.9%)

2 Eternals - €660.955 / €788.415

3 Alles op tafel - €478.698 / €716.637

4 Venom 2 - € 195.530/ €1.630.070 (-49.5%)

5 Dune - €170.201 / €5.158.253 (-34.3%)

 

Sadly estimates were much better than the actuals, I have no clue how they overestimated it by a 150k but sadly they did. This means bond comes in at €1.024m pretty much what spectre made in it's 6th weekend. Don't get me wrong 1m is still good / fine also expected but the number we had earlier would have been great. This pretty much puts it back at a €21-€21.5m finish, it will still over take spectre it has to much of a lead by now unless covid gets really bad (numbers are increasing all over europe).

 

Eternals opening 9.5% lower than Shang - Chi with previous also being quite a bit lower. Not a great opening and Shang Chi had good legs hopefully eternals can follow that, their isn't much competition over the next few weeks, we don't want to see venom legs cause that would be ugly.

 

Speaking of Venom, well it had an ugly hold once more, next week will be very important for the movie another 50% drop would make it miss the €2m mark, it's aiming at a drop of around 35% next week to keep €2m alive. That said even if it gets €2m it's a terrible total, the first one made €5m this movie dropping roughly 60% is quite a feet if i say to myself.

 

Lastly Dune, Dune had a fine hold, having the best drop in the top 5 although NTTD's drop is basicly the same. Still this weekend puts it over €5m it will surely go over €5.5m depending on how well it can hold it's screens it still has a shot at €6m although €5.65m seems like a save bet for now.

 

Shang Chi ended it's run this week and stranded at €3.45m after an 730k openings weekend (900k with previews) having a 4.7 multi from OW (-previews), very nice for a marvel movie.

 

16 hours ago, LPLC said:

Wow, amazing ! With €22.2M, NTTD could overtake Bohemian Rhapsody and become the 3rd biggest film in the Netherlands just behind Titanic and TLK. If that happens, how many admissions would that mean for NTTD ?

 

Well actuals came in quite a bit lower so probably won't beat Bohemian Rhapsody atleast not likely. As for admission it's quite a bit lower than spectre as per Jatinder, the current prices for tickets are alot higher. I think @charlie Jatinder will know more about admission numbers.

Edited November 9, 2021 by pepsa

[LPLC]

@pepsa What do you think about NWH here in Netherlands ? Is there a hype ? $10M achievable ?

[pepsa]

54 minutes ago, LPLC said:

@pepsa What do you think about NWH here in Netherlands ? Is there a hype ? $10M achievable ?

 I am guessing $10m is possible thought i don't know how likely.

The last spiderman FFH was the highest grossing spidey movie after grossing €6.6m ($7.6m) a big increase over homecomming that only did €3.5m. That said it came of EG the biggest grossing MCU movie ever (€13.5m) and IW 2nd highest with €9.4m, marvel hasn't done super well the past few movies venom saw a massive decline so I am a bit skeptical. the circumstances aren't as great though. Covid is having a resurgent and no post EG intrest with a few meh MCU movies might dent it.

 

The positives are: there is quite a bit of hype, i would say higher than FFH. It will be released in december so covid might be better by than. It will have low competition over christmas and it should have 2 amazing weeks. Hopefully it opens to about €1.8m that should insure $10m, matching infinity war would be very hard, it would need great wom and a €2.2m OW.

 

So in the end if covid calms down a bit (mostly doesn't worsen) it should get ur $10m. But going double digets in euro doesn't seem very likely (and isn't expected, if it does that amazing).

[pepsa]

Wel I asked for this I guess...

 

Cinema's will likely have to close for 2 weeks, so yeah spectre wins I guess. Cinema's are protesting so they might not fully have to close? Still boxoffice will be down alot next 2 weeks.