⊃∪∩⪽ Part II | March 1, 2024 | Reactions drop February 15, reviews February 21 | Zendaya for our next C-3P0

[von Kenni]

2 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

I don't buy it cost less than the first one, you can't make a prestige sci fi epic with all-star cast, big battles and A-list director for 150m anymore, maybe in 2009, but not today. 190m after rebates sounds about right.

 

I guess you missed that original breakdown with source links to breakdowns and especially accurate cost and rebate info for Part 1 and 2 from Hungary. You can see the post here.

 

I welcome you to find new sources to make it more accurate. E.g. producer compensation, story rights, and VFX share in Hungary budget vs. traditional production costs is not completely clear. Also how much of the above the line costs or pre- and post-production exactly can be attributed to Hungary budget can be digged up more. If not most, then a sizable junk of pre-production costs at least are in that Hungary budget based on Villeneuve's and VFX supervisor's interviews.

 

But please, share any new sources you can find.

[PlatnumRoyce]

41 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

That said, I got to a pretty accurate results when I did cost/revenue analysis on multiple movies a year ago that correspondent those that ultimately leaked out or were done by some industry analysis with more access to to actuals. But even then it's always possible to be off even tens of millions especially with Disney and MCU.

 

Sounds fun. Do you have a link?

 

Quote

UK

 

My only nitpick is that "development costs" (which would include rights purchases) seem like the one normal production budget thing that isn't included in UK film breaks.

[TomThomas]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

Recalling now, BR 2049 was shoot mainly in Hungary too and reported budget was usually $185m or some cases even $200m but later revealed that the actual was around $150 after rebates.

Considering studios usually lowball official budgets, I wouldn't be surprised BR2049 cost 185m after rebates, Alcon lost at least 80 mln on it.

[TomThomas]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

I guess you missed that original breakdown with source links to breakdowns and especially accurate cost and rebate info for Part 1 and 2 from Hungary. You can see the post here.

 

I welcome you to find new sources to make it more accurate. E.g. producer compensation, story rights, and VFX share in Hungary budget vs. traditional production costs is not completely clear. Also how much of the above the line costs or pre- and post-production exactly can be attributed to Hungary budget can be digged up more. If not most, then a sizable junk of pre-production costs at least are in that Hungary budget based on Villeneuve's and VFX supervisor's interviews.

 

But please, share any new sources you can find.

That's an interesting research, but we'll probably find out more accurate number closer to release, via Deadline. Personally I don't think Villueneve went cheap on himself just because it's his dream project, as well as Zimmer, bigger sequels usually include higher paychecks as well. Many big Hollywood movies are filmed outside US to reduce the budget, so it's not like this movie is different from others. Spectre cost around 300 mln after attractive rebates and all the product placement, so it's not like you still can't balloon the budget to insane number. 190 mln is a reasonable number for this movie, especially since production costs get progressively higher over the years, that's one of the reasons why we have more green screen and less real sets in lots of movies, practical stuff is expensive.

Edited February 21 by TomThomas

[IchwanBigBrother]

https://x.com/JohnnySobczak/status/1760156467879977406?s=20

 

Can't figure out how to embed tweets (if I'm allowed) but... 

 

This critic is a fan of the books, and edits a Dune news site/does their podcast, but he seems fair and thorough to my experience, so this is a big endorsement. Reviews tomorrow will be something to take in. 

Edited February 21 by IchwanBigBrother

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, IchwanBigBrother said:

https://x.com/JohnnySobczak/status/1760156467879977406?s=20

 

Can't figure out how to embed tweets (if I'm allowed) but... 

 

This critic is a fan of the books, and edits a Dune news site/does their podcast, but he seems fair and thorough to my experience, so this is a big endorsement. Reviews tomorrow will be something to take in. 

 

To embed tweets, the url needs to be twitter.com.  The x.com links won't embed.

 

Like thus:

 

 

[von Kenni]

2 hours ago, TomThomas said:

Considering studios usually lowball official budgets, I wouldn't be surprised BR2049 cost 185m after rebates, Alcon lost at least 80 mln on it.

 

I might have some calculations on it somewhere but e.g. here are some of the numbers: https://bombreport.com/yearly-breakdowns/2017-2/blade-runner-2049/

 

When you add those costs and estimated studio overhead costs, video costs, TV/streaming rights, and Home Entertainment revenue, that $80m makes sense without a $185m budget. But I agree that there is a lot of ambiguity when these are reported and studious try to sugarcoat them one way or another.

 

2 hours ago, TomThomas said:

That's an interesting research, but we'll probably find out more accurate number closer to release, via Deadline. Personally I don't think Villueneve went cheap on himself just because it's his dream project, as well as Zimmer, bigger sequels usually include higher paychecks as well. Many big Hollywood movies are filmed outside US to reduce the budget, so it's not like this movie is different from others. Spectre cost around 300 mln after attractive rebates and all the product placement, so it's not like you still can't balloon the budget to insane number. 190 mln is a reasonable number for this movie, especially since production costs get progressively higher over the years, that's one of the reasons why we have more green screen and less real sets in lots of movies, practical stuff is expensive.

 

I wouldn't hold my breath until next year if Deadline does the top BO tournament breakdown. Even then I'd mainly trust their revenue numbers but I wouldn't take their production budgets at face value when it comes to rebates. $190m would be reasonable for Dune Part 2 and I agree with you on the movie budgets generally but when we talk about individual movies it varies a lot or studios, and that's why I did my breakdowns when we found the Hungary budget numbers. We can pretty well with those and other factors in that breakdown estimate the real costs. E.g. cast and other above-the-line costs are smaller than in everyday Bond or MCU movies. Like Oscar Isaac, there are movies that you do if you need a new house (Star Wars) and then there are movies that you do for other reasons like playing an interesting character or working with a special director (Villeneuve, Nolan). You could look at Oppenheimer's cast and say that no way they had a $100m budget. Sure, based on mediocre sources Timothy Chalamet's salary rose from around $2m to $3m from Part 1 to 2 but he and the rest of the cast as well as Villeneuve, producers, and Zimmer will have residues and some participation backend compensation. Reportedly Chalamet's ultimate compensation from Part 1 was $4m after them. Anyway, on a high level, I agree but when it comes to this specific film production, the numbers and sources point to different conclusions.

 

3 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Sounds fun. Do you have a link?

 

I did some of those calculations here on the forum for TLM, I think Indy 5 at least in parts, Flash, and some others. Otherwise I've done excel exercises where I've compared my numbers with the numbers that have afterward reported for Avatar 2, TGM, and some others (at least Deadline did some breakdowns on them). But fun it is for sure (call me weird if you want).

[Last Man Standing]

Sucks for Mickey 17, but it pretty much ensures Dune part 2 will get a serious Oscar push from WB.

[jking123]

Do we know what time review embargo is?

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, jking123 said:

Do we know what time review embargo is?

9am(PT)

[Warmaster506]

Gonna say I don't think it will get nasty.  Everyone instead will be happy.  

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, Warmaster506 said:

Gonna say I don't think it will get nasty.  Everyone instead will be happy.  

Yeah, even for social media reactions these are insanely positive. I don't see any of the red flags I see otherwise. I'll be bullish and say that this is probably landing at at least 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, at least for a while. We'll find out in 3 hours and 22 minutes.

[nguyenkhoi282]

19 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Yeah, even for social media reactions these are insanely positive. I don't see any of the red flags I see otherwise. I'll be bullish and say that this is probably landing at at least 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, at least for a while. We'll find out in 3 hours and 22 minutes.

I have circle back to many universally acclaimed movies in the past years and dare I say only Oppenheimer seems to match Dune 2 level of praise, at least in social reactions.

[Grebacio]

Last minute prediction:

89% Rotten Tomatoes

78 Metacritic 

[nguyenkhoi282]

My prediction:

Rotten Tomatoes: 95%

Metacritic: 85

[Warmaster506]

I'm not dreading like when The Flash review embargo lifted.

 

Dune 2 will get over 90. 

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

Last minute prediction:

89% Rotten Tomatoes

78 Metacritic 

 

That's too low. 

[ChipDerby]

My final prediction for reviews:

 

RT: 94%

MC: 85

[Lucas]

On 2/15/2024 at 11:03 PM, Lucas said:

Ehrlich remains unconvinced lol

Last second thought before the reveal, is it possible Ehrlich's about to have us fooled with a (mostly) positive review and this reaction was just a gag on how bleak the movie is lol.

 

Only 42 minutes to go so get ready to dunk on this clowning in a bit!

 

 

[IchwanBigBrother]

14 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

My final prediction for reviews:

 

RT: 94%

MC: 85

I like your confidence but no, have to disagree. Too many critics as I posted upthread are intransigent against serious sci fi, fantasy and sometimes Dune in particular. 

 

I'm guessing

RT 89%

MC 83

 

Not that huge a difference of course and nothing to be ashamed of but better to be a little conservative in this situation.