The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

0.28x NWH Day 3 sales(13.98M)

3.25x Eternals T-19 sales(25.43M)

2.00x Black Widow T-19 sales(26.40M)

 

That BW comp came way down. What happened to BW on T-19 that popped off like that? 

[Caesar]

7 minutes ago, 21C said:

Has marketing started in Australia yet? I think it hasn't for many countries, at least in terms of TV Spots and billboards.

Not too many TV Spots but they usually don't really show up for us until the week of the movie but we've definitely got billboards and when I went to the Cinema yesterday they had a lot of posters up and were advertising that the tickets were on sale.

 

Plus the big chains sent out an email that tickets were on sales three days ago so the people who usually turn up for preview showings should be aware of it.

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/11/2022 at 10:14 AM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2174(+56)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(84 showings): 1167(+245)/25137 in 15 theaters

Tues+Thurs first 24ish hours: 2947 sold

0.207x NWH's first 24 hours

5.21x Eternals' Day 2 sales

 

Friday(140 showings): 813(+203)/43063 in 15 theaters

0.090x NWH's first 24 hours

2.95x Eternals' Day 2 sales

 

Saturday(146 showings): 357(+102)/44649 in 15 theaters

0.094x NWH's first 24 hours

2.15x Eternals' Day 2 sales

 

Sunday(93 showings): 47(+23)/31131 in 15 theaters

0.064x NWH's first 24 hours

0.681x Eternals' first Day 2 sales

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2230(+56)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(89 showings): 1348(+181)/26164 in 15 theaters

 

0.221x NWH's Day 3 sales

4.37x Eternals' T-19 sales

2.06x Black Widow T-19 sales

 

Friday(144 showings): 1015(+202)/44721 in 15 theaters

0.096x NWH's Day 3 sales

2.47x Eternals' T-20 sales

1.04x Black Widow T-20 sales

 

Saturday(151 showings): 457(+100)/46551 in 15 theaters

0.092x NWH's Day 3 sales

1.83x Eternals' T-21 sales

 

Sunday(101 showings): 72(+25)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.076x NWH's Day 3 sales

0.986x Eternals' T-22 sales

Edited February 12, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/11/2022 at 10:18 AM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(220 showings): 5843(+872)/31113   ATP: $15.05

0.281x NWH's first 24 hours

 

Friday(332 showings): 5191(+1055)/47626   ATP: $15.30

0.334x NWH's first 24 hours

 

Saturday(350 showings): 4056(+978)/50209   ATP: $15.06

0.328x NWH's first 24 hours

 

Sunday(337 showings): 1476(+347)/48084   ATP: $14.90

0.301x NWH's first 24 hours

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(222 showings): 6500(+657)/31377 ATP: $15.01

0.285x NWH's Day 3

2.05x Eternals T-19

 

Friday(332 showings): 6064(+873)/47626   ATP: $15.26

0.327x NWH's Day 3

2.35x Eternals T-20

 

Saturday(350 showings): 4952(+896)/50209   ATP: $14.87

0.308x NWH's Day 3

2.02x Eternals T-21

 

Sunday(337 showings): 1871(+395)/48084   ATP: $14.73

0.261x NWH's Day 3

1.36x Eternals T-22

[Inceptionzq]

15 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

That BW comp came way down. What happened to BW on T-19 that popped off like that? 

The previous BW comp was the second day of sales, which was T-26. I just decided to go straight to T-X comps for Eternals and BW

[Caesar]

Alright went ahead and did a full count of The Batman Wednesday previews at the biggest chain in two Australian states (QLD and NSW).

 

Wednesday night previews (153 showings) - 2255/30632

 

Highest percentage sold < 100 seat showing - 65.6% (21/32)

Highest percentage sold > 100 seat showing - 38.2% (105/275)

24 showings with 0 seats sold - 4874 seats (mostly regular showings)

 

Regular showings - 2.3% (336/14790)

PLF - 9.6% (1321/13761)

Lounge seating and dinner service -  28.7% (598/2081)

 

No comps since it's been a long time since I've done any count here.

 

Still thinking an opening in the US of around $100 million max. If Australian's coming out of restrictions that have required them to wear a mask whilst watching a movie in the cinemas and seating limitations aren't hyped up massively then I have trouble seeing the US opening being too big.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Caesar

[cax16]

31 minutes ago, Caesar said:

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by cax16

[WittyUsername]

Why would Australia be an indication of how the movie will perform in the U.S.?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Why would Australia be an indication of how the movie will perform in the U.S.?

 

Historically, Australia has been a good harbinger for the DOM market, usually at a 1:10 to 1:11 ratio, IIRC.  Been a while since I really paid attention to it, but it has been a good weather vane and shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

 

That being said, the 'rona, or to be more precise societal reaction to the 'rona, could be scrambling things a bit.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Porthos

[Caesar]

49 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Why would Australia be an indication of how the movie will perform in the U.S.?

Australia doesn't really have its own movie industry, we make a few small films a year that are basically watched by very few, instead we tend to focus on trying to attract big US productions to film here.

 

We also make very little in terms of TV drama and comedy, most prime time scripted shows are imported from the US and the few that aren't are usually only made due to Government requirements for Australian content and tend to get dumped very quickly.

 

The result is that Australian's have a pretty similar taste for film as the US and our box office follows along relatively closely.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Caesar

[cax16]

I don’t think the movie is opening under 100m but it’s always great to get data from everywhere.
 

Though tbh those numbers seem fine from Australia in comparison to what I’ve seen in here already, but I also don’t follow that box office closely so I’ll defer to the people who track it more regularly. The movie still doesn’t open for 3 weeks though.

 

I think perception has been thrown off a bit since NWH and some peoples expectations for this were way too high. Trailer views and social media numbers were good for this from DC standards but in comparison to your regular marvel movie those numbers are pretty average. This is why I’ve always thought this movie would be in the 100-140m range. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Australia numbers:

No Way Home- 55m

Eternals- 10m

Shang-Chio 12m

Black Widow- 9.5m

-----

Joker- 27m

BVS- 22.5m

TDKR- 44m

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I don’t think the movie is opening under 100m but it’s always great to get data from everywhere.
 

Though tbh those numbers seem fine from Australia in comparison to what I’ve seen in here already, but I also don’t follow that box office closely so I’ll defer to the people who track it more regularly. The movie still doesn’t open for 3 weeks though.

 

I think perception has been thrown off a bit since NWH and some peoples expectations for this were way too high. Trailer views and social media numbers were good for this from DC standards but in comparison to your regular marvel movie those numbers are pretty average. This is why I’ve always thought this movie would be in the 100-140m range. 

 

Yea I may be reading the signs too soon, but my intuition to the numbers we're seeing and the early comps is pointing to a low 20's preview number. From that, it probably goes 5.5-6.5x for the weekend. So $110M on the low side to maybe $150M if it really catches steam. I'm thinking something in the $130's though. 

 

[cax16]

Just now, PenguinXXR said:

 

Yea I may be reading the signs too soon, but my intuition to the numbers we're seeing and the early comps is pointing to a low 20's preview number. From that, it probably goes 5.5-6.5x for the weekend. So $110M on the low side to maybe $150M if it really catches steam. I'm thinking something in the $130's though. 

 

That’s what I’ve always been thinking. If reviews come out and they’re absolutely amazing then of course numbers could always shoot up but I’ve always been thinking in that range I said above. I’d love if this opened to like 200m, I just don’t think that’s realistic at all. 

[21C]

4 hours ago, Caesar said:

Not too many TV Spots but they usually don't really show up for us until the week of the movie but we've definitely got billboards and when I went to the Cinema yesterday they had a lot of posters up and were advertising that the tickets were on sale.

 

Plus the big chains sent out an email that tickets were on sales three days ago so the people who usually turn up for preview showings should be aware of it.

I would not discount the importance of said TV Spots. Awareness for The Batman in the US per The Quorum only really started to skyrocket when they started being put out constantly around 3 weeks ago. 

While I maintain my 160 million prediction, I think there are a few factors that come to mind as to why, compared to the usual MCU comps, this early on we aren't seeing that massive massive presale ticket spike that'd make said prediction super-obvious:

1. All the MCU movies have a "don't spoil" factor to them, which causes their audiences to rush into ticket buying a bit more. They're like episodes of a TV series, you never want to get one of those spoiled beforehand.
2. The MCU is a well known well trusted brand, people trust they're gonna watch something they like before seeing a single trailer. That's not the case for DC, tho I believe the final stretch of marketing for The Batman and good word of mouth will cause people to drop whatever knee-jerk skepticism they may have and end up going opening weekend anyway. 

The movie has very high awareness and interest levels. People may not be rushing to get their tickets for it now, but that doesn't mean they won't get them eventually come opening weekend time. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by 21C

[grim22]

Remember when Australia predicted an OW of 65-70M for Wonder Woman based on the Australian opening which led to a whole week of trolling till the OD numbers came in? Let's not do that again.

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Remember when Australia predicted an OW of 65-70M for Wonder Woman which led to a whole week of trolling till the OD numbers came in? Let's not do that again.

I do not remember that  

 

Pre release projections are just that, and trolling based on them is foolish (I mean, even relative to trolling based on actuals). But there is a huge interest in prerelease projections nonetheless and similar international markets are a perfectly legitimate source to throw into the stew-- keeping in mind an appropriate amount of uncertainty. For instance, uncharted's weekend in the UK should certainly be incorporated into a forecast for this upcoming weekend.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[excel1]

Everything continues to point to $200m+ with ease

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Everything continues to point to $200m+ with ease

Just like that we're down from 360+ to 200+, cRuMbLiNg indeed

[21C]

25 minutes ago, 21C said:

I would not discount the importance of said TV Spots. Awareness for The Batman in the US per The Quorum only really started to skyrocket when they started being put out constantly around 3 weeks ago. 

While I maintain my 160 million prediction, I think there are a few factors that come to mind as to why, compared to the usual MCU comps, this early on we aren't seeing that massive massive presale ticket spike that'd make said prediction super-obvious:

1. All the MCU movies have a "don't spoil" factor to them, which causes their audiences to rush into ticket buying a bit more. They're like episodes of a TV series, you never want to get one of those spoiled beforehand.
2. The MCU is a well known well trusted brand, people trust they're gonna watch something they like before seeing a single trailer. That's not the case for DC, tho I believe the final stretch of marketing for The Batman and good word of mouth will cause people to drop whatever knee-jerk skepticism they may have and end up going opening weekend anyway. 

The movie has very high awareness and interest levels. People may not be rushing to get their tickets for it now, but that doesn't mean they won't get them eventually come opening weekend time. 

Another thing that I'd like to add to this is the fact that, last year the biggest opening weekend aside from NWH was Venom 2 with 90 million  dollars, and the difference between that opening weekend and NWH's is of around 170 million dollars; Shang-Chi was the highest grossing domestic with 234, and there are multiple reports of how there's still a big chunk of the US audience (50% to be exact) that's skeptical of going to the theaters; we're talking about an audience whose consumer habits have become considerably more selective, an audience that The Batman has to convince. For NWH, it makes sense that even said audience would immediately buy said tickets on the presale, after all, nostalgia sells, they like MCU, etc. They were already convinced, but The Batman doesn't have those factors. What could make The Batman a 150+ million OW spectacle that's gonna convince all those people that didn't go to the theater at all except for NWH, is the word of mouth, is whether or not they hear the movie is good. It makes sense said audiences are not rushing out to buy tickets yet when they've clearly shown a tendency of being more selective by outright not showing up to any films except NWH last year; and it makes sense that WB decided to do country wide screenings on Tuesday to spread word of mouth and convince said audiences before March 4th comes around.

Edited February 13, 2022 by 21C