The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric S'ennui]

2 minutes ago, earthtne said:

Um…okay? That imputation aside, no, I’m not “mad”. I’m pointing out how the content of the series is not what id consider “pure, fun, light, family-friendly adventure material”, and I think it’s Cinemascore and audience reception will continue to suffer if that’s how it’s sold.

Cool. This still isn't the right thread for it. We have a Fantastic Beasts thread. Go there if you want to talk about this stuff. I'll even link it right here.

 

 

[el sid]

Very great 😡. Since the new update I can't log in anymore from my big PC where I have all my charts. Not the first time this is happening after an update here. And it takes long enough without new trouble. I have no idea what to do and with the Smartphone it's really annoying.

 

Ambulance had today counted for Friday 196 sold tickets.

Comps: The Protege had 32 sold tickets on the same day,

Copshop had 11 sold tickets 

and Angel has fallen (not the best comp) had 136 sold tickets (but big jumps over the next days and very good walk-ups).

Overall not bad but it also doesn't look like a breakout hit so far in my theaters.

 

Sonic 2 had today for Friday 791+ sold tickets in 7 theaters (one reported Sell Out could indeed be true because the other evening show is also "Almost Full").

Comps: The first Sonic The Hedgehog movie had on Thursday = my final count = 3 days later 2.103 sold tickets which Sonic 2 could reach or at least it could come close.

Jungle Cruise had also on Monday 357 sold tickets,

Dolittle had 143

and Clifford had 75 sold tickets (for Wednesday).

Overall good numbers for today but I'm not completely sold so far.

 

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, el sid said:

Very great 😡. Since the new update I can't log in anymore from my big PC where I have all my charts. Not the first time this is happening after an update here. And it takes long enough without new trouble. I have no idea what to do and with the Smartphone it's really annoying.

 

@Eric the Living Vampire is this something @Water Bottle would be able to look into.  If not, who should el sid try to contact about this? Or troubleshoot as the case may be.

[Water Bottle]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

Very great 😡. Since the new update I can't log in anymore from my big PC where I have all my charts. Not the first time this is happening after an update here. And it takes long enough without new trouble. I have no idea what to do and with the Smartphone it's really annoying.

 

Ambulance had today counted for Friday 196 sold tickets.

Comps: The Protege had 32 sold tickets on the same day,

Copshop had 11 sold tickets 

and Angel has fallen (not the best comp) had 136 sold tickets (but big jumps over the next days and very good walk-ups).

Overall not bad but it also doesn't look like a breakout hit so far in my theaters.

 

Sonic 2 had today for Friday 791+ sold tickets in 7 theaters (one reported Sell Out could indeed be true because the other evening show is also "Almost Full").

Comps: The first Sonic The Hedgehog movie had on Thursday = my final count = 3 days later 2.103 sold tickets which Sonic 2 could reach or at least it could come close.

Jungle Cruise had also on Monday 357 sold tickets,

Dolittle had 143

and Clifford had 75 sold tickets (for Wednesday).

Overall good numbers for today but I'm not completely sold so far.

 

 

Turned off AJAX Pagination. That might be the issue. But if it doesn't please PM me with more info so I can try to resolve that issue for you.

[Eric S'ennui]

Ambulance Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	90	3857	2.33%

 

Comp

0.055x of F9 T-3 (395K)

0.600x of Snake Eyes T-3 (840K)

0.121x of The Suicide Squad T-3 (498K)

0.581x of Free Guy T-3 (1.28M)

0.469x of Moonfall T-3 (328K)

[Borobudur]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

2pm previews probably puts a minor thumb on the scale as well with FB3.

 

Mind, I'm not seeing as many post 10pm showtimes as normal, so maybe it's a bit of a wash.  Still more potential showtimes on Thr should depress the internal multiplies for the OW.

 

Thursday for FB3 was actually easter Thursday. Most movies tend to jump quite a bit on that day which then may help to boost FB3's preview to a higher than usual total. And 2 pm preview basically means RPO could be a close comparison point.

[Eric S'ennui]

On 4/3/2022 at 10:23 PM, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	1162	11185	10.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 137

 

Comp

0.586x of Shang-Chi T-4 (5.15M)

0.814x of Venom 2 T-4 (9.44M)

1.301x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-4 (5.85M)

2.376x of Uncharted T-4 (8.79M)

 

Adjusted Comp

2.800x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-4 (8.4M)

 

There's a real division between the 5M range and the 8M range by comps. I guess that means we're going inbetween? Regardless, we're in for a strong debut this weekend.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	1395	12304	11.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 233

 

Comp

0.606x of Shang-Chi T-3 (5.33M)

0.793x of Venom 2 T-3 (9.2M)

1.331x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-3 (5.99M)

2.491x of Uncharted T-3 (9.22M)

 

Um...my profile pic? That says it all.

[Legion Again]

Yeah something like 5-6x for Dumbledore would be my guess.

[Eric S'ennui]

On 4/3/2022 at 10:31 PM, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	598	15949	3.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69

 

Comp

0.566x of Shang-Chi T-11 (4.98M)

0.900x of No Time to Die T-11 (5.67M)
0.795x of Dune T-11 (4.05M)

0.351x of Eternals T-11 (3.33M)

1.137x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-11 (5.11M)

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	656	16391	4.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 58

 

Comp

0.555x of Shang-Chi T-10 (4.88M)

0.873x of No Time to Die T-10 (5.5M)

0.830x of Dune T-10 (4.23M)

0.361x of Eternals T-10 (3.43M)

1.131x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-10 (5.09M)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

What's Everything Everywhere tracking like? And how wide is the expansion?

[el sid]

Thank you very much for your compassion and your help, especially @Porthos and @Water Bottle. I'll do what you suggested. And if I'm not able to fix it this week I just have to use the Smartphone (for sure on Wednesday and Thursday). It could look a bit unattractive but the results stay the same :).

Edited April 5, 2022 by el sid

[Ezen Baklattan]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

What's Everything Everywhere tracking like? And how wide is the expansion?

Idk how wide it'll go for sure but it seems to be selling quite well at my local art house. 78 seats for the 7pm Thursday show sold so far.

[Legion Again]

~1200 per deadline. Expecting 5-6Mish 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

Idk how wide it'll go for sure but it seems to be selling quite well at my local art house. 78 seats for the 7pm Thursday show sold so far.

It's somewhat similarly following French Dispatch. 

 

Everything opened in 10 theaters and expanded to 38 in weekend 2 for 1.07m and 28.3k PTA. French Dispatch opened in 52 theaters for 1.34m and a 25.9k PTA. 

 

Dispatch expanded to 788 theaters the following week for 2.6m. 3302 average. So if it's around there (and under 1k theaters), then probably a 2.5m range?

 

But it's A24 which has as loyal a brand as Wes Anderson does and it could be going as wide as over 1000. Anyway, the Cinemark doesn't have any weekend showtimes listed for it yet so uncertain how wide it goes. The AMC has Friday showtimes but not Thursday. Maybe showtimes just went up and people are unaware/waiting for Thursday:

 

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE

AMC FRIDAY (1)

250 (0), 430 (0), 610 (0), 750 (1), 930 (0)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	22435	23263*	828	3.56%

*NOTE: One theater adjusted its seat maps resulting in three more seats available region wide.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

T-11 Comps

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	67.81		72	1221		0/101	15781/17002	7.18%		5847	14.16%		5.97m
NTTD	94.52		64	876		0/134	20340/21216	4.13%		7712	10.74%		5.86m
Dune	110.84		46	747		0/75	11084/11831	6.31%		2915	28.40%		5.65m
GB:A	192.11		30	431		0/108	16261/16692	2.58%		3034	27.29%		8.65m
Morbius	104.55		47	792		0/127	17950/18742	4.23%		3477	23.81%		5.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: No Time to Die tickets had been on sale for four days more than Secrets of Dumbledore has been at this at this point in tracking while Shang-Chi, Dune. Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Morbius's tickets have all been on sale for one more day than FB3.

  

Regal:      128/5540  [2.31% sold]
Matinee:    49/3307  [1.48% | 5.92% of all tickets sold]

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	164	23326	24236	910	3.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today	10
Total Seats Added Today	973
Total Seats Sold Today	82

 

T-10 Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	66.42		149	1370		0/101	15632/17002	8.06%		5847	15.56%		5.85m
NTTD	95.79		74	950		0/135	20309/21259	4.47%		7712	11.80%		5.94m
Dune	109.64		83	830		0/75	11001/11831	7.02%		2915	31.22%		5.59m
GB:A	171.70		99	530		0/108	16263/16793	3.16%		3034	29.99%		7.73m
Morbius	106.06		66	858		0/127	17884/18742	4.58%		3477	26.17%		6.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: No Time to Die tickets had been on sale for four days more than Secrets of Dumbledore has been at this at this point in tracking while Shang-Chi, Dune. Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Morbius's tickets have all been on sale for one more day than FB3.

  

Regal:     130/6346  [2.05% sold]
Matinee:    51/3710  [1.37% | 5.60% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 4/4/2022 at 12:12 AM, Porthos said:

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	92	11557	12918*	1361	10.54%

*NOTE: Corrected an error on one seat map, resulting in 19 fewer seats available region wide.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

172

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	181.23		141	751		0/87	14373/15124	4.97%		2352	57.87%		7.43m
SC	56.57		261	2406		0/113	15205/17611	13.66%		5847	23.28%		4.98m
LTBC	55.30		453	2461		0/183	26301/28762	8.56%		7712	17.65%		6.42m
GB:A	136.78		75	995		0/117	16554/17549	5.67%		5847	23.28%		6.16m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	70.27		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		4407	28.80%		5.22m
Sonic (adj)	---		169	1269		0/80	9630/10899	11.64%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 0.99278x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [4.8m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    400/1701   [23.52% sold]   +72 tickets]
Thursday sales:       961/11217   [8.57% sold]   +100 tickets]
---    
Regal:      218/3088  [7.06% sold]
Matinee:    89/2387  [3.73% | 6.54% of all tickets sold]

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	109	12800	14430	1630	11.30%

 

Total Showings Added Today	17
Total Seats Added Today	1512
Total Seats Sold Today	269

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	182.12		144	895		0/100	15314/16209	5.52%		2352	69.30%		7.47m
SC	59.47		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		5847	27.88%		5.23m
LTBC	53.67		576	3037		0/216	28173/31210	9.73%		7712	21.14%		6.23m
GB:A	138.49		182	1177		0/153	19354/20531	5.73%		3034	53.72%		6.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	73.97		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		4407	34.63%		5.50m
Sonic (adj)	---		257	1526		0/97	10885/12411	12.30%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 1.00808x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-3 [4.9m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    487/1701   [28.63% sold]   +87 tickets]
Thursday sales:    1143/12729   [8.98% sold]   +182 tickets]
---    
Regal:        295/3246  [9.09% sold]
Matinee:    105/2466  [4.26% | 6.44% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 5, 2022 by Porthos
Adjusted Sonic Comp... again >:-<

[Legion Again]

Sacto quick rate extrapolations:

TSS — 187% rate, extrapolated final seats 4352, comp 7.6

SC — 80% rate, extrapolated final seats 4124, comp 6.2

LBTC — 47% rate, extrapolated final seats 3813, comp 5.75

GBA — 148% rate, extrapolated final seats 8532??? (I think gba final seats is copy paste error from SC @Porthos)

F9 — 100.0% rate (funny coincidence), extrapolated final (adjusted) seats 3870, I donut totally understand how this comp is being adjusted but I think that would be ~6.66?

 

geomean 6.5    
 

Note: Using the daily rate is pretty volatile, using like 3day rate/3day rate would be more robust. Don’t take this too seriously, basically just a demonstration of which comps dropped vs rose today and how that looks if you straight lined them out to the end.  
 

Edit: GBA rate comp basically will be 6.5 on the dot using t-3:final movement x4 t-4:t-3 rule fo thumb from the rest with full data.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

@Thanos Legion  It's 3034 as seen on the FB3 chart which is 53.72% of final.  I'll fix it presently (though I won't bother with old posts)

 

ETA: and fixed.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Also, for the F9 comp it doesn't include three theaters in town that I currently have info for but didn't have reliable info for F9.  So the "Final Sold" for F9 will be basically All Theaters In The Region Minus Those Troublesome Three.

 

So, basically, yes tonight Sonic 2 had a 1:1 against F9 at all other theaters in town.

 

@Thanos Legion

 

ETA:::

 

Honestly, if it was up to me, I'd just nuke the F9 comp for "more trouble than it's worth", exxxxxxcept at 7.1m it's right at the bar I like to use for tracking and it's currently the only post-2020 non-CBM I have that cleared 7m and it was backloaded enough compared to other films I have that it's a useful benchmark for films that aren't quite as frontloaded as some.

 

So, unfortunately, it sticks around until I have more things that are better.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

So F9 is not Ontario adjusted atm, to be clear?