The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

So, hopefully the last time a short report.

 

Sonic 2 had today 1.851 sold tickets.

Up so lala 25% since yesterday.

Comps: The first Sonic movie (58M) had on the same day 2.103. But please notice that I counted at least 2 hours earlier to avoid the dozens of error reports I had yesterday (which worked) but I think you can add at least 100 tickets to the 1.851 so it came pretty close.

JC (35M) had on the same day 817 sold tickets. The comparison number would be ca. 80M but JC had The Rock and was no sequel but OTOH if I remember it right it was released at the peak of the Omicron wave. So around 60-70M maybe?

Dolittle (21.8M) had 395 sold tickets,

Clifford (16.6M had 152 

and The Boss Baby 2 (16M) had 190 sold tickets.

 

Ambulance had today (also earlier) 391 sold tickets.

Up decent 36% since yesterday.

Comps: The Protege (2.9M) had 91 sold tickets,

Copshop (2.3M) had 37 sold tickets

and AhF (21.4M) had 446 sold tickets (and good walk-ups).

I would say it will get more than 10M for sure and 15M are not impossible.

[boogiezen888]

Any update for The Northman? A 90m budget is scary. I hope it doesn't bomb like The Last Duel (really a great film, too bad really). 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Sadly might not be able to make it to theater this weekend so Ambulance and Everything Everywhere must wait. Sorry @universal @A24 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

35 minutes ago, boogiezen888 said:

Any update for The Northman? A 90m budget is scary. I hope it doesn't bomb like The Last Duel (really a great film, too bad really). 

It’s bombing. Just a matter of how badly. 

[AJG]

55 minutes ago, boogiezen888 said:

Any update for The Northman? A 90m budget is scary. I hope it doesn't bomb like The Last Duel (really a great film, too bad really). 

 

They need to save face, make that thing a Peacock Original and leave us be.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

25 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

They need to save face, make that thing a Peacock Original and leave us be.

Or maybe let people who want to see it in theaters the way it was intended see it that way and collect the L

[Brainbug]

27 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

They need to save face, make that thing a Peacock Original and leave us be.

 

Eh ... no? That would be even worse. Let it at least play for some time in theaters so people who want to watch it there (and some do) can enjoy it that way.

Edited April 7, 2022 by Brainbug

[Eric Furiosa]

17 hours ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	2424	16308	14.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 650

 

Comp

0.748x of Shang-Chi T-1 (6.59M)

0.814x of Venom 2 T-1 (9.44M)

1.514x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-1 (6.81M)

2.727x of Uncharted T-1 (10.09M)

 

BAH GAWD

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	3382	16308	20.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 958

 

Comp

0.711x of Shang-Chi (6.26M)

0.646x of Venom 2 (7.49M)

1.525x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (6.86M)

2.449x of Uncharted (9.06M)

 

Some may be concerned about the slow finish, but I've honestly noticed that's a problem that hits most movies that get Early Access shows. Makes sense, since the people who were going to see it right away already caught it the day before. And yeah, a 6-7M range is still really, really good and indicates a 70M+ finish.

[Eric Furiosa]

I will also say re: Northman that I just did a quick scan of sales at the AMC theaters I track and it honestly looks fine. I didn't tally or count anything specifically, since I still have to track Ambulance, but it doesn't seem like the doomsday everybody here is predicting.

[BruiseCruise]

What the hell was the point of spending 90m making a movie when you plan to penny pinch marketing it?

[AJG]

13 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Or maybe let people who want to see it in theaters the way it was intended see it that way and collect the L

 

NO. PEACOCK NEEDS CONTENT!

[Tinalera]

Sonic 2 

Friday April 8(Taken April 7)

Toronto Ontario

8 theatres

49 shows

 

Total sold 771

Total Remaining 13965

Total Seats 14736

Percentage 5.23

 

 

[CJohn]

If Sonic 2 does in 3 days what Sonic 1 did in 4, that would be a big win.

[XXR vs XXR]

True Friday Tracking -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens)

April 8, 2022 Openers - Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2

266 show times -- 5799 total seats sold -- 3035 PLF seats sold -- 2764 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 52.3% PLF -- 47.7% Regular 

Theater Estimates: 4232

 

Comp: The Lost City (2.358x = $21.3M True Friday)

 

Full Friday Estimate: $26-29M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $67-73M

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Everything, Everywhere, All at Once 

102 show times -- 877 total seats sold -- 0 PLF seats sold -- 877 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 0% PLF -- 100% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~1200

 

Comp: The Outfit (4.137x = $2.2M True Friday) 

 

Full Friday Estimate: $2.7-3M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $7.5-8.5M

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Ambulance

141 show times -- 774 total seats sold -- 539 PLF seats sold -- 235 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 69.6% PLF -- 30.4% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~3400

 

Comp: Morbius (0.1692x = $1.96M True Friday)

Comp: The Lost City (0.3148x = $2.84M True Friday) 

 

 

Full Friday Estimate: $2.9-3.3M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $8-9M

 

 

Spoiler

Comments 

Sonic seems to be doing really well. I'm modeling $1.25M in EA previews and $6M into Thursday previews. I'm banking on a Full Friday to Weekend multiplier of roughly 2.6x or so. EEAAO is difficult to project based on its truncated rollout and I'm not sure if Thursday counts as previews for the weekend or just another day at this point. For reference, I'm counting Thursday numbers into Friday's and calling that "Full Friday" even if it's not. As for Ambulance, it's definitely underwhelming and I don't see it hitting $10M. 

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

[lorddemaxus]

8 hours ago, CJohn said:

Lets forgot about the silly doctor for a minute, I need some Sonic and Ambulance numbers. I am hoping for a breakout for my blue boy.

Why you rooting for the dumb kids film?

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Anyone has Morbius 2nd weekend estimates? 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

Anyone has Morbius 2nd weekend estimates? 

 

$11-12M.

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Why you rooting for the dumb kids film?

Because it was goddamn awesome and deserves everything.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

946

3886

24.34%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

720

3590

20.06%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 7HRS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4317	1630	35514	12.16%	15	252

 

AMCs sold	2757
Cinemarks sold	658
Regals sold	550
Harkins sold	352

 

1.91x Batman first 24 hours (41.26M)

0.667x NWH first 11 hours (33.35M)

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1100

3886

28.31%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

820

3590

22.84%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5094	777	37649	13.53%	15	259

 

AMCs sold	3213
Cinemarks sold	787
Regals sold	643
Harkins sold	451

 

1.88x Batman Day 2 (40.61M)

0.490x NWH Day 2 (24.50M)

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:05pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	126	12668	15915	3247	20.40%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	41
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	364

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS [12:15 - 12:45]	194.43		327	1670		0/111	15173/16843	9.92%		2352	138.05%		7.97m
SC [12:00 - 12:55]	67.56		634	4806		0/192	20644/25450	18.88%		5847	55.53%		5.95m
LTBC [12:00 - 12:50]	51.19		1216	6343		0/247	27313/33656	18.85%		7712	42.10%		5.94m
GB:A [12:00 - 12:45]	130.24		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3034	107.02%		5.86m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-0 [MId-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [12:00 - 12:45]	88.64		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		4407	68.19%		6.59m
Sonic (adj)	---		333	3005		0/113	10809/13814	21.75%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 1.13817x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-0 Mid- Day [5.5m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    832/1701   [48.91% sold]   +0 tickets] [FINAL]
Thursday sales:    2415/14214   [16.99% sold]   +364 tickets]
---    
Regal:       595/3246  [18.33% sold]
Matinee:    230/2466  [9.33% | 7.08% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Ngl, a soft start to the day.  I am taking my sample about 30 min sooner than these other movies, but still would have liked to see a bit more sales.  We'll see how the rest of the day goes but might be zeroing on just under 6m.

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:55pm* - 4:15pm]

* NOTE: All showtimes that started before 4pm were sampled at the start of that showtime.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	126	11964	15915	3951	24.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

704

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS [5:40 - 6:10]	167.98		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		2352	167.98%		6.89m
SC [4:40 - 5:30]	67.57		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		5847	67.57%		5.95m
LTBC [3:50 - 4:35]	51.23		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		7712	51.23%		5.94m
GB:A [3:50 - 4:30]	130.22		541	3034		0/192	21230/24264	12.50%		3034	130.22%		5.86m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-0 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [5:30 - 6:10]	82.21		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		4407	82.21%		6.11m
Sonic (adj)	---		618	3623		0/113	10191/13814	26.23%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 1.18798x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [5.8m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    832/1701   [48.91% sold]   +0 tickets] [FINAL]
Thursday sales:    3119/14214   [21.94% sold]   +704 tickets]
---    
Regal:         771/3246  [23.75% sold]
Matinee:    387/2466  [15.69% | 9.79% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Walkups came through after all. 👍

 

Maybe not as strong as some would like, but pretty good overall I think.  Let's call for a flat 6m +/-.25m.  Could be higher, but I think this is gonna have more kids tickets sold than those Marvel comps and certainly more than TSS.  Has been ticket inflation since last year, plus those Marvel comps were later in the day.  On the other hand, Ghostbusters: Afterlife should be pretty dead on, and that's pointing to 5.9m.   So 6m seems pretty reasonable.  Won't surprise me if it's a bit higher tho.

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Porthos