The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I know you guys pay a lot of attention to stuff like last film did xyz so 2x of that will not be disappointing.

 

It depends on individual film. Dr Strange was simple origin story. DS 2 is an MCU major event with Doctor Strange being one of the if not the biggest superhero in current MCU regime after his appearance in movies after his own origin movie.

 

Now am not saying $170M will be considered disappointing by most but we aren't most people. DS2 is the spiritual sequel to film which opened $260M in December 2021, not $85M in Nov 2016.

 

Absolutely, and understandable given the complicated, ongoing nature of the MCU. But the ones that reached the highest of highs (the Avengers movies, Black Panther, No Way Home) were unquestionably once in a blue moon mega events (with nostalgia being an especially big selling point for No Way Home), and everything leading up to the release for this hasn't suggested that it would open much higher than Captain America: Civil War did in the same exact spot six years ago. Either way, Marvel definitely wins again.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Absolutely, and understandable given the complicated, ongoing nature of the MCU. But the ones that reached the highest of highs (the Avengers movies, Black Panther, No Way Home) were unquestionably once in a blue moon mega events (with nostalgia being an especially big selling point for No Way Home), and everything leading up to the release for this hasn't suggested that it would open much higher than Captain America: Civil War did in the same exact spot six years ago. Either way, Marvel definitely wins again.

 

The MCU has a "mega event" almost every year. It's just relative to the year. At current ticket price levels, here are where some past MCU films would open to today...

 

Iron Man 2 = $158M
The Avengers = $252M
Iron Man 3 = $209M
Age of Ultron = $227M
CA:CW = $211M 
GOTG V2 = $173M 
Black Panther = $239M
Infinity War = $304M 
Captain Marvel = $179M
Endgame = $415M 
 

Keep in mind, these numbers are strictly adjusting for inflation and don't even account for the even more fan rush that we've seen from MCU films since Endgame. So DS2 opening to $180M at todays ticket prices isn't actually THAT big or unique. 

[SupermanLego]

4 minutes ago, KnucklesXXR said:

 

The MCU has a "mega event" almost every year. It's just relative to the year. At current ticket price levels, here are where some past MCU films would open to today...

 

Iron Man 2 = $158M
The Avengers = $252M
Iron Man 3 = $209M
Age of Ultron = $227M
CA:CW = $211M 
GOTG V2 = $173M 
Black Panther = $239M
Infinity War = $304M 
Captain Marvel = $179M
Endgame = $415M 
 

Keep in mind, these numbers are strictly adjusting for inflation and don't even account for the even more fan rush that we've seen from MCU films since Endgame. So DS2 opening to $180M at todays ticket prices isn't actually THAT big or unique. 

For me the real test would be what is Thor 4 going to open to/make. It's a "Genuine" solo sequel and not masquerading like DS2 and NWH. Could it beat TB domestically ?....we will see.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

For me the real test would be what is Thor 4 going to open to/make. It's a "Genuine" solo sequel and not masquerading like DS2 and NWH. Could it beat TB domestically ?....we will see.

 

I'm expecting at least $170M OW and $460M DOM. 

[SupermanLego]

1 minute ago, KnucklesXXR said:

 

I'm expecting at least $170M OW and $460M DOM. 

You sure that's not DS2 numbers lol ?

[YM!]

Enough about Strange what is EEAAO and Sonic looking like?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

14 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

You sure that's not DS2 numbers lol ?

 

I'm sure. People forget that Ragnarok did 122/315 DOM and that was...

1. Before IW and EG.
2. Before 17% inflation
3. Not during the summer. 

L&T has a lot more going for it. Also, the Guardians are in it for at least a portion of it, and people love crossover appeal.

Edited April 8, 2022 by KnucklesXXR

[Movies4Life]

@charlie Jatinder, how can you say Doctor Strange 2 is set for a near $200M opening weekend based on $15M in first 24-hour presales: https://twitter.com/meJat32/status/1512250746321793026?s=20&t=OTM3b_3pV4bwtOj55fFcRA? I mean The Batman made $8.5M in first 24-hour presales and lead to a $134M OW. So, there's that. But this statistic has me... curious and wondering how you can make that assumption.

Edited April 8, 2022 by Movies4Life

[SupermanLego]

4 minutes ago, Movies4Life said:

@charlie Jatinder, how can you say Doctor Strange 2 is set for a near $200M opening weekend based on $15M in first 24-hour presales: https://twitter.com/meJat32/status/1512250746321793026?s=20&t=OTM3b_3pV4bwtOj55fFcRA? I mean The Batman made $8.5M in first 24-hour presales and lead to a $134M OW. So, there's that. But this statistic has me... curious and wondering how you can make that assumption.

Are Marvel movies more front loaded than DC movies ?

[YM!]

4 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Why you rooting for the dumb kids film?

Because if we’re lucky enough in the next sequel, we’ll get possibly the most furry bait character in video game history in CGI glory (well tbf most Sonic characters are but that’s besides the point).

 

 

Spoiler

I’d also like to see the family demographic return to theaters. Rooting for Ambulance and EEAAO to succeed too though as I am pretty hyped for both.

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by YourMother

[Cooper Legion]

49 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

For me the real test would be what is Thor 4 going to open to/make. It's a "Genuine" solo sequel and not masquerading like DS2 and NWH. Could it beat TB domestically ?....we will see.

Uhh... Thor is another one that will target like the CW-TA opening range. Definitely no question about TB 🤣

[Eric the Marxist]

22 hours ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	794	16391	4.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 67

 

Comp

0.563x of Shang-Chi T-8 (4.96M)

0.844x of No Time to Die T-8 (5.31M)

0.921x of Dune T-8 (4.7M)

0.398x of Eternals T-8 (3.78M)

1.176x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-8 (5.29M)

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	890	16391	5.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 96

 

Comp

0.578x of Shang-Chi T-7 (5.08M)

0.842x of No Time to Die T-7 (5.31M)

0.962x of Dune T-7 (4.91M)

0.424x of Eternals T-7 (4.03M)

1.241x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-7 (5.59M)

[Eric the Marxist]

22 hours ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-29 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	234	6162	45297	13.60%

 

Comp

0.547x of Spider-Man: NWH's First Day of Sales (27.35M)

1.709x of The Batman's First Day of Sales (36.92M)

 

Papa Feige truly does not miss.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	234	6890	45297	15.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 728

 

Comp

0.546x of Spider-Man: NWH's First Two Days of Sales (27.3M)

1.723x of The Batman's First Two Days of Sales (37.22M)

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, KnucklesXXR said:

 

The MCU has a "mega event" almost every year. It's just relative to the year. At current ticket price levels, here are where some past MCU films would open to today...

 

Iron Man 2 = $158M
The Avengers = $252M
Iron Man 3 = $209M
Age of Ultron = $227M
CA:CW = $211M 
GOTG V2 = $173M 
Black Panther = $239M
Infinity War = $304M 
Captain Marvel = $179M
Endgame = $415M 
 

Keep in mind, these numbers are strictly adjusting for inflation and don't even account for the even more fan rush that we've seen from MCU films since Endgame. So DS2 opening to $180M at todays ticket prices isn't actually THAT big or unique. 

True, but you get what I'm saying. Not every sequel will see a No Way Home-style explosion, and double the previous Doctor Strange movie already is a major win for a character that seemed C-list at best before the release of his first movie.

[keysersoze123]

Sonic2 Alpha Friday PS - 117342/788119 1670239.46 4639 shows

 

 

My run started around 4PM PST. So I am expecting it to start around 150K by the time shows start. Its definitely hitting low 20s at minimum for its true friday. Which means its ow should be > 75m at this point !!! way higher than what I thought was possible. 

 

I just got alpha to work and so I wont have complete previews data. I will try to update later. But its headed for what ever the regional trackers are saying. Somewhere between 7-8 previews including early shows yesterday. 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sonic2 Alpha Friday PS - 117342/788119 1670239.46 4639 shows

 

 

My run started around 4PM PST. So I am expecting it to start around 150K by the time shows start. Its definitely hitting low 20s at minimum for its true friday. Which means its ow should be > 75m at this point !!! way higher than what I thought was possible. 

 

I just got alpha to work and so I wont have complete previews data. I will try to update later. But its headed for what ever the regional trackers are saying. Somewhere between 7-8 previews including early shows yesterday. 

With a 75m+ OW, Sonic 2 will likely be the first family film since Frozen 2 to do 200m domestic as well as Paramount’s first 200m hit since Fallout. A huge win.

[SupermanLego]

53 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Uhh... Thor is another one that will target like the CW-TA opening range. Definitely no question about TB 🤣

So Thor 4 and DS2 are on equal footing if they are targeting the same range. Doesn't seem right, Thor 4 doesn't seem as big as DS2.

[DAJK]

Re my last post a few hours ago about my showing of Sonic being pretty empty...

 

Yea, previews in my area aren't looking spectacular for it. But pre-sales for tomorrow are just blowing it out of the water. Even if my comps for tonight come in a little low, I do think this has the potential to blow up this weekend. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, SupermanLego said:

Are Marvel movies more front loaded than DC movies ?

Overall? Not really. 

 

I doubt DS2 multi will be much different than The Batman for example.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

So Thor 4 and DS2 are on equal footing if they are targeting the same range. Doesn't seem right, Thor 4 doesn't seem as big as DS2.

If Ragnarok came out today, it would open with +140M, and this movie is very beloved.

 

I don't see how to be surprised if a direct sequel + guardians cameos open with +170M. 

 

Not saying it will happen, but doesn't seem irrealistic at all.