The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

Father Stu had today at 11am EST 31 sold tickets for Friday in 6 theaters. Not too impressive.

OTOH Overcomer also had only 34 sold tickets 1 day later, on Thursday for Friday. Still I expected a bit better result for Father Stu.

 

FB 3 had today at the same time 2.041 sold tickets. 

Up 15% since yesterday.

Comps (all three comps counted on Wednesday for Friday): Sonic 2 (72.1M OW) had 1.484 sold tickets,

Uncharted (44M OW) had 982 sold tickets 

and Morbius (39M OW) had 1.541 sold tickets.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife (44M OW) had on Wednesday for Thursday 1.221 sold tickets.

 

The jump could have been higher for my taste but that's still a good number.

 

PS: I don't think that I can count tomorrow because I take a trip but we have enough busy members here so I don't worry :).

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hmm. MTC 2 is stronger than Alpha. So Potter over index in West? I thought it would do better in East like Bond franchise.

MTC 1 suggests $6M ish while MTC 2 is $6.75M. So I guess could be $6.3M ish. Accordingly may be $19M opening day.

19
12
8 // 39

Can hit $40M if do slightly better.

Looking at Friday sales I think friday with previews should cross 20m.

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 Alpha Friday - 69059/808598 1062086.45 4218 shows

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/11/2022 at 5:05 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1288

3886

33.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

916

3590

25.52%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5945	149	38261	15.54%	15	266

 

AMCs sold	3682
Cinemarks sold	950
Regals sold	775
Harkins sold	538

 

0.686x Batman Final (14.82M)

0.257x NWH Final (12.84M)

1.34x Eternals Final (12.69M)

1.47x Shang-Chi Final (12.97M)
0.934x Black Widow Final (12.33M)

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1331

3886

34.25%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

948

3590

26.41%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6187	242	38261	16.17%	15	266

 

AMCs sold	3798
Cinemarks sold	998
Regals sold	804
Harkins sold	587

 

0.714x Batman Final (15.42M)

0.267x NWH Final (13.36M)

1.39x Eternals Final (13.20M)

1.53x Shang-Chi Final (13.49M)

0.972x Black Widow Final (12.84M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/11/2022 at 5:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-24 Thursday(169 showings): 6087(+206)/42996

0.568x Batman Final (12.26M)

0.186x NWH Final (9.28M)

 

T-25 Friday(279 showings): 2896(+145)/71512

0.264x Batman Final (9.26M)

0.094x NWH Final (6.74M)

 

T-26 Saturday(288 showings): 1487(+105)/71920

0.136x Batman Final (5.86M)

0.049x NWH Final (3.59M)

 

T-27 Sunday(265 showings): 347(+17)/67700

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-22 Thursday(185 showings): 6488(+401)/46179

0.605x Batman Final (13.07M)

0.198x NWH Final (9.89M)

 

T-23 Friday(280 showings): 3171(+275)/71633

0.290x Batman Final (10.13M)

0.103x NWH Final (7.38M)

 

T-24 Saturday(288 showings): 1646(+159)/71920

0.150x Batman Final (6.49M)

0.054x NWH Final (3.98M)

 

T-25 Sunday(265 showings): 396(+49)/67700

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/11/2022 at 5:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-24 Thursday(205 showings): 13690(+291)/30280 ATP: $15.24

0.641x Batman Final (13.85M)

0.353x NWH Final (17.64M)

 

T-25 Friday(280 showings): 10774(+343)/41170 ATP: $15.23

0.373x Batman Final (13.04M)

0.253x NWH Final (18.16M)

 

T-26 Saturday(286 showings): 10717(+354)/42330 ATP: $14.70

0.308x Batman Final (13.34M)

0.213x NWH Final (15.74M)

 

T-27 Sunday(270 showings): 4518(+283)/40026 ATP: $14.29

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-22 Thursday(205 showings): 14198(+508)/30280 ATP: $15.24

0.665x Batman Final (14.37M)

0.366x NWH Final (18.29M)

 

T-23 Friday(280 showings): 11370(+596)/41170 ATP: $15.20

0.393x Batman Final (13.76M)

0.266x NWH Final (19.17M)

 

T-24 Saturday(286 showings): 11366(+649)/42330 ATP: $14.68

0.327x Batman Final (14.14M)

0.226x NWH Final (16.70M)

 

T-25 Sunday(270 showings): 4999(+481)/40026 ATP: $14.26

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Finally got the tracker to work again after being down for 2 days.

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days
	Last 3 Days			4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	222			111	6,659
Seats Added	14,853			20,059	1,128,589
Seats Sold	16,935			8,773	231,342
4/12/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	6,881	257,050	1,163,501	22.09%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	4	35	159	453	804
ATP
$16.96

 

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days
	Last Day	Previous 3 Days			5 Days Ago
Showings Added	33	222			111
Seats Added	2,791	14,853			20,059
Seats Sold	4,630	16,935			8,773
4/13/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	6,914	261,680	1,166,292	22.44%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	6	36	163	470	826
ATP
$16.95

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Father Stu sold decently tonight at the 7 showing at Cinemark (about 20 people). It did 500k previews. How much for the 5day?

 

[Rorschach]

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
    IMAX showings: 49/1,178
        2:00 pm: 15/388
        5:30 pm: 23/388
        9:00 pm: 11/388
    2D showings: 213/1,015
        3:30 pm: 31/135
        4:10 pm: 26/238
        5:10 pm:  5/67
        7:00 pm: 56/135
        7:40 pm: 58/238
        8:40 pm: 13/67
        10:30 pm: 24/135
    Total Sold: 262/2,193 (11.9% sold)

 

Comps:
Shang-Chi: $7.53 mil
No Time to Die: $11.87 mil
Dune: $8.97 mil
Eternals: $7.11 mil
Ghostbusters: Afterlife: $8.42 mil
Spider-Man: No Way Home: $5.18 mil
The Batman: $5.63 mil
Average: $7.82 mil

 

    Friday:
    IMAX showings: 115/1,552
        12:00 pm: 29/388
        3:30 pm: 26/388
        7:00 pm: 58/388
        10:30 pm: 2/388
    2D showings: 494/1,729
        9:55 am: 38/135
        11:10 am: 53/238
        12:40 pm: 12/85
        1:20 pm: 27/135
        2:40 pm: 91/238
        4:10 pm: 13/85
        4:50 pm: 41/135
        6:10 pm: 97/238
        7:40 pm: 38/67
        8:20 pm: 60/135
        9:40 pm: 24/238
    Total Sold: 609/3,281 (18.6% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 871/5,474 (15.9% sold)

 

Comps:
Shang-Chi: $46.22 mil
No Time to Die: $53.71 mil
Dune: $35.78 mil
Eternals: $34.8 mil
Ghostbusters: Afterlife: $26.86 mil
Spider-Man: No Way Home: $22.31 mil
The Batman: $28.8 mil
Average: $35.5 mil

 

[Eric the Marxist]

23 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	116	1480	22482	6.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 172

 

Comp

0.563x of Shang-Chi T-2 (4.96M)

0.792x of No Time to Die T-2 (4.99M)

0.975x of Dune T-2 (4.97M)

0.472x of Eternals T-2 (4.48M)

1.147x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-2 (5.16M)

 

Honestly, I'm not sure why Philly's been so terrible the last couple days when everybody else has been fine. I don't know if it's a demographic thing or there's a lot of Potter fans in Philly who really wanted to buy tickets right away? It's weird.

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	118	1719	22598	7.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 239

 

Comp

0.531x of Shang-Chi T-1 (4.67M)

0.746x of No Time to Die T-1 (4.7M)

0.977x of Dune T-1 (4.98M)

0.471x of Eternals T-1 (4.47M)

1.074x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-1 (4.83M)

[Eric the Marxist]

23 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	234	8153	45297	18.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 200

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	234	8315	45297	18.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 162

 

Batman comp arrives tomorrow!

[keysersoze123]

Fantastic Beasts 3 Alpha previews - 67889/565589 1070093.81 2949 shows

 

I am expecting it to be in low 70s by morning(This run was between 4-7PM PST) and hopefully get to 120K+ before end of day. Let us wait and see. I will update MTC2 in the morning(its still running) but its looking way stronger than norm over there. Definitely thinking over 6m in previews. 

[MadGoose]

@el sid I don't understand how TSoD is seemingly selling better than Sonic 2 at the theaters you're tracking when that one opened with 71 million, it is overindexing somehow? 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	32131	40910	8779	21.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

195

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	95.47%	13.20
SC:	5847	150.15%	13.21
LTBC:	7712	113.84%	13.20
ET:	6409	136.98%	13.01
NWH:	28183	31.15%	15.57
Batsy:	11757	74.67%	16.13

 

Regal:     1928/10901  [17.69% sold]
Matinee:    480/4632  [10.36% | 5.47% of all tickets sold]

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	31963	40910	8947	21.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

168

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

BW:	9196	97.29%	13.45
SC:	5847	153.02%	13.47
LTBC:	7712	116.01%	13.46
ET:	6409	139.60%	13.26
NWH:	28183	31.75%	15.87
Batsy:	11757	76.10%	16.44

 

Regal:     1958/10901  [17.96% sold]
Matinee:    489/4632  [10.56% | 5.47% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 14, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	25266	27661	2395	8.66%

 

Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	989
Total Seats Sold Today	418

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	73.04		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		5847	40.96%		6.43m
NTTD	107.40		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		7712	31.06%		6.66m
Dune	137.49		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	82.16%		7.01m
GB:A	158.61		333	1510		0/178	21594/23104	6.54%		3034	78.94%		7.14m
Morbius	125.72		328	1905		0/181	22143/24048	7.92%		3477	68.88%		7.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        368/7361  [5.00% sold]
Matinee:    244/4082  [5.98% | 10.19% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Not really slowing down in SacTown.  Could be over-performing, as discussed earlier today.  But if it isn't, then 6.5m-7m might be in the cards.

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	207	24756	27788	3032	10.91%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	127
Total Seats Sold Today	637

 

T-1 Comps

SC	72.67		893	4172		0/188	20813/24985	16.70%		5847	51.86%		6.40m
NTTD	108.83		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		7712	39.32%		6.75m
Dune	143.90		365	2107		0/109	12686/14793	14.24%		2915	104.01%		7.34m
GB:A	145.77		570	2080		0/192	22169/24249	8.58%		3034	99.93%		6.56m
Morbius	122.16		577	2482		0/184	21853/24335	10.20%		3477	87.20%		6.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

FB3 = 0.6799x FB2 at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [5.6m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018 to 2022.

 

Regal:     497/7491  [6.63% sold]
Matinee:    321/4080  [7.87% | 10.59% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Comps look to be converging on mid-6s in Sacto (the FB2 comp is still being affected by the discrepancy in pre-sale length, but it's caught up enough to be noteworthy again).  Saw that things aren't nearly as rosy in Philly, so who knows.  Find out soon enuf what's going on.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 hours ago, MadGoose said:

@el sid I don't understand how TSoD is seemingly selling better than Sonic 2 at the theaters you're tracking when that one opened with 71 million, it is overindexing somehow? 

It’s a much more presales heavy franchise. Sonic 2 had an 11.5x IM while SoD will be in the 5.5-6.5x range.

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Is The Batman reaching 800M?

[BruiseCruise]

6 minutes ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

Is The Batman reaching 800M?

no

[keysersoze123]

Fantastic Beasts 3 MTC2 previews - 48845/495982 644563.85 3313 shows // this ran whole day yesterday !!!!

Alpha Friday - 78975/815511 1204500.77 4260 shows

 

I think this will have a good friday jump for sure. Thinking 15m true friday is possible.

[charlie Jatinder]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Alpha Friday - 78975/815511 1204500.77 4260 shows

Added around 38k since T-4 days vs 50k of Eternals. Eternals added another 220k after that, this can perhaps 175-180 for 250-260k.

$15-16M True FRI I believe. 

I guess

6-6.5
15-15.5
14-14.5
9-9.5

44-46

Quite okay after disastrous start and then middling mid run.

Edited April 14, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

6.5
15-16
14-15
9-10

45-48

Quite okay after disastrous start and then middling mid run.

 

That would approx. be 1,154 Morbillion on the low end and 1,230 Morbillion on the high end. SOLID.