The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[CrashBandicoot81]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

They want to come out to mainly watch superhero movies. CNN+ isn't even for young people lol.

Starting April 30th, CNN+ won't be for anyone.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-15 Thursday(206 showings): 15808(+194)/30665 ATP: $15.25

0.693x NWH T-15 (34.63M)

 

0.741x Batman Final (16.00M)

0.407x NWH Final (20.37M)

 

T-16 Friday(282 showings): 13568(+331)/41848 ATP: $15.17

0.731x NWH T-16 (52.59M)

 

0.469x Batman Final (16.42M)

0.318x NWH Final (22.87M)

 

T-17 Saturday(287 showings): 14127(+423)/42878 ATP: $14.60

0.878x NWH T-17 (64.87M)

 

0.406x Batman Final (17.58M)

0.281x NWH Final (20.75M)

 

T-18 Sunday(270 showings): 6636(+177)/40026 ATP: $14.30

0.926x NWH T-18 (59.43M)

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-14 Thursday(206 showings): 15996(+188)/30665 ATP: $15.25

0.682x NWH T-14 (34.11M)

 

0.749x Batman Final (16.19M)

0.412x NWH Final (20.61M)

 

T-15 Friday(282 showings): 13948(+380)/41848 ATP: $15.15

0.722x NWH T-15 (51.91M)

 

0.482x Batman Final (16.88M)

0.327x NWH Final (23.51M)

 

T-16 Saturday(287 showings): 14461(+334)/42878 ATP: $14.59

0.833x NWH T-16 (61.53M)

 

0.416x Batman Final (17.99M)

0.287x NWH Final (21.25M)

 

T-17 Sunday(270 showings): 6882(+246)/40026 ATP: $14.29

0.862x NWH T-17 (55.31M)

[Grebacio]

3 hours ago, kyrixos said:

If Bad Guys opens to 20Mish would it surpass Sonic 2 and FB3?

Yes. Beasts will land in the 15.5-17 range while Sonic will land in the 17-19.5 range

[CJohn]

I still can't believe a streaming service only lasted a whole month. I knew it was gonna be a mega bomb but still fucking lmao. They were promoting it so hard.

Edited April 22, 2022 by CJohn

[kyrixos]

32 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Yes. Beasts will land in the 15.5-17 range while Sonic will land in the 17-19.5 range

In that scenario I wonder if it can keep its #1 spot for a few weekdays.

[Eric the Marxist]

11 hours ago, Eric is a furry said:

The Bad Guys Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	48	152	6856	2.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 60

 

Comp

0.565x of Boss Baby 2 T-1 (740K)

0.486x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (1.31M)

1.448x of Addams Family 2 T-1 (796K)

5.241x of Ron's Gone Wrong T-1 (1.26M)

0.492x of Encanto (738K)

 

Boss Baby, Jungle Cruise, and Encanto all saw big final bumps on their last day, so things are still a little shaky, but this is still singlehandedly going to be the big kahuna of the new openers. So...I guess that's something.

The Bad Guys Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	48	375	6856	5.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 223

 

Comp

0.491x of Boss Baby 2 (643K)

0.476x of Jungle Cruise (1.28M)

1.963x of Addams Family 2 (1.08M)

4.310x of Ron's Gone Wrong (1.03M)

0.553x of Encanto (830K)

 

Averages out to 973K. Adjust down to like...I dunno, 850K, and that leads to a 25M weekend?

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Im a bit surprised that Minions is ahead of Lightyear in that poll. Toy Story 4 was still huge, while i was under the impression that the Despicable Me franchise was on the decline.

The list has Top Gun 2 at number 4. That's how seriously you have to take it.

[Eric the Marxist]

11 hours ago, Eric is a furry said:

The Northman Greater Philadelphia Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	414	3758	11.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 44

 

Comp

1.574x of Old T-1 (2.36M)

1.592x of Snake Eyes T-1 (2.23M)

6.787x of The Last Duel T-1 (2.37M)

0.235x of Dune T-1 (1.2M)

2.855x of Ambulance T-1 (2M)

The Northman Greater Philadelphia Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	610	3758	11.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 196

 

Comp

0.714x of Old (1.07M)

0.935x of Snake Eyes (1.31M)

6.224x of The Last Duel (2.18M)

0.261x of Dune (1.33M)

2.007x of Ambulance (1.4M)

 

Yeah it was a bad start, though it isn't helped that the movie has very limited showtimes. Most theaters are only giving this 1 showing. Not sure if it's because Focus is a mini-major or couldn't get a good deal or what. It's kind of bogus, since it is selling well in those single showtimes, but I guess that means it'll have a good IM? I dunno, I'm tired right now.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Shawn said:

 

 

I like the point here about Lightyear potentially drawing a stronger older crowd (the people who vote in these polls).

 

But of course, let us also remember that Fandango is a division owned by NBCUniversal/Comcast.

 

I'm not sayin', I'm just... sayin'. 

Confirmed Jurassic World isn't no. 3, its just put there because....

 

Suck it @Brainbug the Dinosaur

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Alpha is just making stupid fucking website changes for no reason. Now the “graying” that indicates a seat is sold is barely any darker than the unsold seats and half the screens (the bigger ones) no longer have the seat numbers/rows on them. 
 

I will push through tonight’s count but I am reassessing whether to continue tracking after this.

Quit corporate website. Use Atom tickets.

[Eric the Marxist]

11 hours ago, Eric is a furry said:

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent Greater Philadelphia Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	275	3552	7.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 40

 

Comp

0.905x of Free Guy T-1 (1.99M)

0.608x of Jackass Forever T-1 (1M)

0.355x of The Lost City T-1 (1.15M)

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent Greater Philadelphia Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	416	3552	11.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 141

 

Comp

0.594x of Free Guy (1.31M)

0.597x of Jackass Forever (985K)

0.407x of The Lost City (1.32M)

 

Uh...I guess 1.3M sounds right? I dunno. Like I said, I'm tired.

[kyrixos]

It's interesting that most of the sites I've came across assessed lower estimates for Bad Guys. Guess I'll have to wait for them to make updates.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

True Friday Tracking -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens)

April 22, 2022 Openers - Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 

 

The Northman

106 show times -- 1847 total seats sold -- 1614 PLF seats sold -- 233 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 87.4% PLF -- 12.6% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~3200

 

Comp: Morbius (0.4038x = $4.69M True Friday)

Comp: Ambulance (2.386x = $5.97M True Friday)

 

Full Friday Estimate: $5.6-6.3M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $13-15M

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

The Bad Guys

167 show times -- 1143 total seats sold -- 63 PLF seats sold -- 109 3D seats sold -- 971 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 5.5% PLF -- 9.5% 3D -- 85.0% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~4000

 

Comp: Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (0.1971x = $3.97M True Friday) 

 

Full Friday Estimate: $5.5-6.5M
3-Day Opening Weekend Estimate: $17-19M

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

89 show times -- 980 total seats sold --182 PLF seats sold -- 798 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 18.6% PLF -- 81.4% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~3100

 

Comp: Father Stu (4.224x = $7.11M Full Friday) 

Comp: The Lost City (0.3985x = $3.6M True Friday)

 

True Friday Estimate: $2.8-3.3M
3-Day Opening Weekend Estimate: $8.5-9.5M

 

Spoiler

 

Comments 

Comps are still bad. Don't really have any comments for these. Northman probably does 10-13x previews. The Bad Guys are a PG film with no IP following, so it probably does 20-25x previews. Massive Talent probably has more cinephile drive than any of these and does 8-10x. Lets see how things go.

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

 

[John Marston]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The list has Top Gun 2 at number 4. That's how seriously you have to take it.

 

what’s wrong with Top Gun Being  there? And Lightyear is a spin-off, not an official TS movie so it makes sense it won’t automatically be hugely anticipated 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The list has Top Gun 2 at number 4. That's how seriously you have to take it.

Yes it should be higher

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Comp: Father Stu (4.224x = $7.11M Full Friday) 

Comp: The Lost City (0.3985x = $3.6M True Friday)

 

True Friday Estimate: $2.8-3.3M
3-Day Opening Weekend Estimate: $8.5-9.5M

Seems like a very pessimistic comp->est conversion here (though indeed neither comp is great).
 

If previews are like 1M, sneaks 750k, True Friday 3.5, then wknd might as well be 1.75+3.5*3~=12 at least

[lorddemaxus]

39 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The list has Top Gun 2 at number 4. That's how seriously you have to take it.

Probably would be higher if the poll sampled from all age groups equally (likely heavily biased towards 18-25 year olds).

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

12 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Seems like a very pessimistic comp->est conversion here (though indeed neither comp is great).
 

If previews are like 1M, sneaks 750k, True Friday 3.5, then wknd might as well be 1.75+3.5*3~=12 at least

 

I'll be honest, I didn't put much thought into any of these. I'm just not feeling it RN. I got the numbers recorded and that's about it for me.

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

what’s wrong with Top Gun Being  there? And Lightyear is a spin-off, not an official TS movie so it makes sense it won’t automatically be hugely anticipated 

Every time Fandango most anticipated has a movie that shouldn't be there. TG2 is the movie this time.

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

If previews are like 1M, sneaks 750k, True Friday 3.5, then wknd might as well be 1.75+3.5*3~=12 at least

what sneaks? when sneaks? where sneaks?