The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Brainbug]

46 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

I’m not saying that it will definitely happen but there’s a pretty good shot that it opens over $100M. In 2014, American Sniper went wide to over $93M as I recall. That crowd + the nostalgia audience should be able do some box office damage. It might even be a Memorial Day weekend opening record.

 

139M is the target. At Worlds End had the record long enough^^

[Tokugennumataka]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

139M is the target. At Worlds End had the record long enough^^

A well marketed Aladdin with good positive buzz could've done it. 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

A well marketed Aladdin with good positive buzz could've done it. 

 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/3/2022 at 1:05 AM, Eric loves Rey said:

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	257	14410	47783	30.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 990

 

Comp

0.673x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-3 (33.64M)

1.849x of The Batman T-3 (39.93M)

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	300	15538	51899	29.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,128

 

Comp

0.659x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-2 (32.97M)

1.779x of The Batman T-2 (38.43M)

[Eric Prime]

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	148	510	30872	1.65%

 

Comp

1.821x of F9 T-23 (12.93M)

1.574x of No Time to Die's First Day (9.92M)

1.156x of Dune's First Day (5.9M)

2.024x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife's First Day (9.11M)

1.924x of Fantastic Beasts 3's First Day (11.55M)

 

I'm not looking at any of the stuff below F9 until later on, but I wanted to do this just to show how strong of a start Top Gun is at. I'll admit that I thought the 300M predictions people were spouting after CinemaCon were a bit too hyped up from the CinemaCon reactions, which are always grain of salt-worthy. And while I don't want to say anything like that will happen just yet...this is more believable to me.

[Eric Prime]

On 5/3/2022 at 1:05 AM, Eric loves Rey said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-38 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	900	23332	3.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 29

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-37 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	933	23332	4.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 33

[Cooper Legion]

So bad day in philly as well as Sacto. Guess reviews really do matter 😔

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

43 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

So bad day in philly as well as Sacto. Guess reviews really do matter 😔

Reviews aren’t even bad though. Still over 80 RT. They’re just not as hyped as NWH. 
 

35-55-62-48 for 208 

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

I guess it's now a fight to that 200M OW... 

 

Let's fight bruh

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Reviews aren’t even bad though. Still over 80 RT. They’re just not as hyped as NWH. 
 

35-55-62-48 for 208 

Yeah but when the movie is already running megahot, I think the bar for reviews to cause a bump is higher 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Yeah but when the movie is already running megahot, I think the bar for reviews to cause a bump is higher 

If we don’t get that May record I’ve been promised, we will be banning Legion.

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

[ThomasNicole]

Unless the previews came under 35M (which doesn't looks like) i think 200M is safe. I don't see much reason to expect less than 5.7x IM 

 

Record maybe is a bit more difficult to get, but let's see today and tomorrow. Maybe yesterday bump wasn't very exciting in some places because TG2 did super well in those places and had some impact, or reviews simply wasn't glowing enough to have a positive impact.

 

 

[SupermanLego]

It's all down to WOM now

Edited May 4, 2022 by SupermanLego

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

According to Luiz 9hrs ago ish, DS2 crossed 60M in Pre sales in the US vs 120M for NWH and 42M for TB at the same point. Don't know if this is accurate or anything lol

As discussed several pages ago, far from accurate.  Came from deadline, but contradicts reporting at the time which matched what we can see.  
 

DS2 indeed ~60M mid yday. Similar point for Batman ~29M and NWH ~96M

[SupermanLego]

I can see this opening to BVS global.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/3/2022 at 8:24 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-15	Downton Abbey (EA)	Jacksonville	6	6	783	24	0	3.07%
		Phoenix	6	6	606	14	0	2.31%
		Raleigh	7	7	708	65	9	9.18%
	DA (EA) Total		19	19	2,097	103	9	4.91%
T-16	Downton Abbey	Jacksonville	6	11	1,550	59	1	3.81%
		Phoenix	6	8	1,212	51	4	4.21%
		Raleigh	7	8	935	71	3	7.59%
	DA Total		19	27	3,697	181	8	4.90%
T-2	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	159	24,820	5,303	551	21.37%
		Phoenix	7	152	20,981	5,960	692	28.41%
		Raleigh	8	144	16,085	5,704	510	35.46%
	DS 2 Total		22	455	61,886	16,967	1,753	27.42%
T-37	JW3 Dominion	Jacksonville	6	105	15,656	350	45	2.24%
		Phoenix	6	93	15,960	319	16	2.00%
		Raleigh	8	65	7,415	296	21	3.99%
	JW3 Dominion Total		20	263	39,031	965	82	2.47%
T-37	JW3+JP	Jacksonville	2	2	225	71	0	31.56%
		Phoenix	5	5	564	190	16	33.69%
		Raleigh	2	2	188	82	3	43.62%
	JW3+JP Total		9	9	977	343	19	35.11%

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 3.158x (30m)

 - Shang-Chi - 4.139x (36.42m)

 - Black Widow - 2.305x (30.42m)

 - No Way Home - .489x (24.46m)

 

My last Batman run was preview morning - Thu + EA comp is at 32.44m

 

DS2 T-2 comps

 - Spider-Man - .663x (33.13m)

 - Black Widow - 4.15x (54.81m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 2.705x (47.6m)

 - Batman + EA - 2.054x (44.37m)

 - Eternals - 5.624x (53.43m)

 

Downton EA T-15 comps

 - Sonic EA - .98x (1.246m)

 - NTTD EA - 1.392x (1.53m)

 

Downton T-16 comps

 - No Time to Die - .555x (2.89m)

 - F9 - .359x (2.55m)

 - Sonic 2 - .628x (3.13m)

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .252x (1.79m)

 - Ghostbusters - .4x (1.68m)

 - NTTD - .353x (1.84m)

- Dune - .351x (1.79m)

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-1	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	187	26,589	5,802	499	21.82%
		Phoenix	7	167	21,643	6,462	502	29.86%
		Raleigh	8	157	17,187	6,072	368	35.33%
	DS 2 Total		22	511	65,419	18,336	1,369	28.03%
T-14	Downton 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	6	6	783	29	5	3.70%
		Phoenix	6	6	606	17	3	2.81%
		Raleigh	7	7	708	73	8	10.31%
	Downton 2 (EA) Total		19	19	2,097	119	16	5.67%
T-15	Downton 2	Jacksonville	6	11	1,550	68	9	4.39%
		Phoenix	6	8	1,212	56	5	4.62%
		Raleigh	7	8	935	77	6	8.24%
	Downton 2 Total		19	27	3,697	201	20	5.44%
T-20	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	5	7	961	129	129	13.42%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	42	42	20.19%
		Raleigh	2	2	412	98	98	23.79%
	Top Gun 2 (EA) Total		8	10	1,581	269	269	17.01%
T-21	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	2	2	245	33	33	13.47%
		Phoenix	2	2	434	13	13	3.00%
		Raleigh	1	1	118	2	2	1.69%
	Top Gun 2 (EA) Total		5	5	797	48	48	6.02%
T-22	Top Gun 2	Jacksonville	7	111	18,617	266	266	1.43%
		Phoenix	6	68	13,195	232	232	1.76%
		Raleigh	8	69	8,017	226	226	2.82%
	Top Gun 2 Total		21	248	39,829	724	724	1.82%

 

Didn't have time to pull JW today; on vacation and internet is soo slow.  Really good start for Top Gun though!

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 3.413x (32.425m)

 - Shang-Chi - 4.473x (39.36m)

 - Black Widow - 2.491x (32.44m)

 - No Way Home - .529x (26.435m)

 

My last Batman run was preview morning - Thu + EA comp is at 35.056m

 

DS2 T-1 comps

 - Spider-Man - .657x (32.87m)

 - Black Widow - 3.923x (51.78m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 2.496x (43.93m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.942x (41.95m)

 - Eternals - 5.366x (50.98m)

 

Downton EA T-14 comps

 - Sonic EA - .1.13x (1.439m)

 - NTTD EA - 1.434x (1.577m)

 

Downton T-15 comps

 - No Time to Die - .568x (2.95m)

 - F9 - .372x (2.64m)

 - Sonic 2 - .666x (3.31m)

 

Top Gun 2 (Thu) day 1 comps

 - Eternals - .949x (9.01m)

 - Shang-Chi - 1.25x (10.98m)

 - Black Widow - .817x (10.79m)

 

Top Gun 2 (Thu) T-22 comps

 - Black Widow - .559x (7.38m)

 - Eternals - .817x (7.76m)

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

So bad day in philly as well as Sacto. Guess reviews really do matter 😔

I guess the less enthusiastic review means less rush factor for people to purchase the ticket earlier, but eventually they will show up

[Porthos]

It's interesting that Top Gun: Maverick utterly exploded in Sacramento while it just did "really well" in Philly (katniss' markets seem to be somewhere in the middle of the Sacto-Philly range).

 

It's really unusual for Sacto to be such an outlier and I have some theories on why that might be*, but it just goes to show why getting more than one market (as well as more than one day) is important!

 

* While we haven't had an active military base locally for over twenty years now, back in the 80s we actually had three locally (Army Depot, Mather Air Force Base, McClellan Air Force Base) before they closed one by one ('95, '93, and '01 respectively) and those long term residual feelings might have impacted things locally.  Or at least left Sacramentans of a certain age nostalgic for feel-good stuff like this.

 

Alternatively, this was just One of Those Things that happens very rarely in tracking where one market is just wildly out of sync of everyone else. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Porthos

[Maggie]

So based on these early sales, what is the preview number we are predicting for TG 2?