The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Alex SciChannel]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Somewhere in the ballpark. I would say 9-10x. 

I think we should also keep in mind TG2 is releasing on Thursday at 3pm while MI6 came out either 6pm or 7pm on Thursday I believe, I could be wrong. So the internal multiplier could be softened because of that.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I think we should also keep in mind TG2 is releasing on Thursday at 3pm while MI6 came out either 6pm or 7pm on Thursday I believe, I could be wrong. So the internal multiplier could be softened because of that.

I am talking over 4 day weekend. It should do well. 

[titanic2187]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think previews will comfortably cross 10nm. How high we dont know for now. Let us wait until close to release to hone in on a number. Including early shows its ahead of BW for now. That operated in a constrained environment and so final week sales were good but not crazy strong. 

After the lesson learnt in NTTD, especially its run rate towards the opening weekend, I am now very skeptical for the movie skewing older demo and I am not sure how the younger and more coloured-skin crowd respond to a phenomenon 36 year ago. Hope TGM changes the course. 

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-34 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	22354	23674	1320	5.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

69

 

Regal:      196/5920  [3.31% sold]
Matinee:    72/1535  [4.69% | 5.45% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

FWIW, I think there's something of a Halo Effect going on right now with MoM and JW (as well as TG:M).  I think there are a non-zero percentage of folks who are going to the theaters and thinking to themselves "Well, I'm already here to see MoM, might as well buy JW:D/TG:M tickets while I'm here." 

 

One of the few reasons I can come up with concerning this mini-boost JW has seen yesterday and today.  There's more factors at play for TG:M (more on that in the next post), but I also think the halo is helping there as well.

 

Will this just end up cannibalizing sales that would have occurred anyway in the next couple of weeks, which in turn leads to a slightly larger dip than might be expected in the "slow period"/"long tail"?  Find out soon enuf.

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-33 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	22312	23674	1362	5.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

42

 

Regal:     197/5920  [3.33% sold]
Matinee:    73/1535  [4.76% | 5.36% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	33617	36222	2605	7.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

306

 

T-20 Unadjusted Comps  SOME **REALLY** BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	446.83		34	583		0/92	13400/13983	4.17%		4407	56.25%		33.22m
Batsy	80.53		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	22.16%		17.39m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Top Gun: Maverick tickets have been on sale for two more days than The Batman's had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, not counting the two days of sales for The Batman that were restricted to early access shows.

 

T-20 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	127.65		77	1942		0/105	16676/18618	10.43%		9196	28.33%		17.64m
TG:M (adj)	---		292	2479		0/222	28535/31014	7.99%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets had been on sale for four more days than Top Gun: Maverick's have been on sale at this point in pre-sales.

 

Tuesday Sales:        636/2477 [25.68% sold]    [+53 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    1969/33745 [5.83% sold] [+253 tickets]
    
Regal:       300/10512  [2.85% sold]
Matinee:    163/4384  [3.72% | 6.26% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Lady Gaga, her power?!??

 

---

 

Decided to rip off the band-aid and switch to T-x comps a day early.  Ironically enuf, doing that more or less harmonized The Batman comp and the Black Widow comp.  The F9 comp is now even worse, of course, but I'm keeping it around, though I'm not entirely sure why.  Did get rid of the NTTD comp, and I might end up losing the F9 comp after all, depending on just how much it moves.

 

Anyway, whether it's world premiere buzz/social media embargo lift still lingering, halo effects from MoM, or just lots of folks interested locally, this is still doing boffo numbers here. No other way to put it.

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	33363	36220	2857	7.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

252

 

T-19 Unadjusted Comps  SOME **REALLY** BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	447.10		56	639		0/92	13462/14101	4.53%		4407	61.79%		33.24m
Batsy	84.23		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	24.30%		18.19m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Top Gun: Maverick tickets have been on sale for two more days than The Batman's had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, not counting the two days of sales for The Batman that were restricted to early access shows.

 

T-19 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	135.95		61	2003		0/105	16615/18618	10.76%		9196	31.07%		18.79m
TG:M (adj)	---		244	2723		0/222	28289/31012	8.78%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets had been on sale for four more days than Top Gun: Maverick's have been on sale at this point in pre-sales.

 

Tuesday Sales:        702/2477   [28.34% sold] [+66 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    2155/33743 [6.39% sold] [+186 tickets]
    
Regal:       331/10510  [3.15% sold]
Matinee:    172/4383  [3.92% | 6.02% of all tickets sold]

[Maggie]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

After the lesson learnt in NTTD, especially its run rate towards the opening weekend, I am now very skeptical for the movie skewing older demo and I am not sure how the younger and more coloured-skin crowd respond to a phenomenon 36 year ago. Hope TGM changes the course. 

What happened with NTTD? How was the forum tracking?

[titanic2187]

5 hours ago, Maggie said:

What happened with NTTD? How was the forum tracking?

I remember it was trending above spectre at around 75m quite consistently but it keep going lower and lower in the last few days before opening until it even missed 60m.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	DS 2 (Sat)	PLF	86	9,108	9,108	17,872	50.96%	$14.92	$135,903.96
		Standard	177	8,764	8,764	24,447	35.85%	$10.53	$92,308.34
	DS 2 (Sat) Total		263	17,872	17,872	42,319	42.23%	$12.77	$228,212.30

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	DS 2 (Sat)	N	123	8,319	8,319	19,965	41.67%	$14.91	$124,021.21
		Y	140	9,553	9,553	22,354	42.74%	$10.91	$104,191.09
	DS 2 (Sat) Total		263	17,872	17,872	42,319	42.23%	$12.77	$228,212.30

 

Saturday T-0 comps

 

No Way Home - .843x (62.313m)

Batman - 1.562x (67.586m)

 

Adjusted T-0 comps (adjusted for Fri multiplier)

 

No Way Home - 64.88m

Batman - 65.55m

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	DS 2 (Sun)	PLF	85	5,915	5,915	17,645	33.52%	$14.66	$86,728.09
		Standard	184	5,280	5,280	25,065	21.07%	$10.27	$54,238.11
	DS 2 (Sun) Total		269	11,195	11,195	42,710	26.21%	$12.59	$140,966.20

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	DS 2 (Sun)	N	127	4,037	4,037	20,388	19.80%	$15.35	$61,951.96
		Y	142	7,158	7,158	22,322	32.07%	$11.04	$79,014.24
	DS 2 (Sun) Total		269	11,195	11,195	42,710	26.21%	$12.59	$140,966.20

 

Sunday T-0 comps

 

No Way Home - .557x (35.756m)

Batman - 1.124x (38.36m)

 

Adjusted by Friday mult

 

NWH - 37.23m

Batman - 37.21m

 

Adjusted by Saturday mult

 

NWH - 33.85m

Batman - 33.49m

 

Friday was the only day to come in ahead of the NWH comp.  Saturday, (assuming 59m), was at 95% of NWH comp and 87% of Batman comp.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-11	Downton 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	6	6	783	37	4	4.73%
		Phoenix	6	6	606	19	0	3.14%
		Raleigh	8	8	789	110	15	13.94%
	Downton 2 (EA) Total		20	20	2,178	166	19	7.62%
T-12	Downton 2	Jacksonville	6	11	1,550	74	4	4.77%
		Phoenix	6	8	1,212	59	0	4.87%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,093	95	8	8.69%
	Downton 2 Total		20	29	3,855	228	12	5.91%
T-5	Firestarter	Jacksonville	6	16	1,864	12	0	0.64%
		Phoenix	6	16	1,724	7	0	0.41%
		Raleigh	8	18	1,586	14	0	0.88%
	Firestarter Total		20	50	5,174	33	0	0.64%

 

Firestarter T-5 comps

 - Candyman - .314x (597k)

 - Resident Evil - .452x (423k)

 - The Night House - 2.2x (572k)

 

Downton EA T-11 comps

 - Sonic EA - .1.35x (1.71m)

 - NTTD EA - missed

 

Downton T-12 comps

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .324x (2.3m)

 - Sonic 2 - .603x (3m)

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-10	Downton 2 (EA)	Jacksonville	6	6	783	42	5	5.36%
		Phoenix	6	6	606	19	0	3.14%
		Raleigh	8	8	789	121	11	15.34%
	Downton 2 (EA) Total		20	20	2,178	182	16	8.36%
T-11	Downton 2	Jacksonville	6	11	1,550	81	7	5.23%
		Phoenix	6	8	1,212	61	2	5.03%
		Raleigh	8	10	1,093	104	9	9.52%
	Downton 2 Total		20	29	3,855	246	18	6.38%
T-4	Firestarter	Jacksonville	6	16	1,864	18	6	0.97%
		Phoenix	6	16	1,724	8	1	0.46%
		Raleigh	8	18	1,586	16	2	1.01%
	Firestarter Total		20	50	5,174	42	9	0.81%

 

No time for a full run today so just the closer movies.  There was an error in the comps for DA EA yesterday, it has been fixed above.

 

Firestarter T-4 comps

 - Candyman - .331x (628k)

 - Resident Evil - .416x (389k)

 - The Night House - 2.47x (642k)

 

Downton EA T-10 comps

 - Sonic EA - .1.27x (1.7m)

 - NTTD EA - 1.492x (1.64m)

 

Downton T-11 comps

 - No Time to Die - .54x (2.81m)

 - F9 - .33x (2.34m)

 - Sonic 2 - .63x (3.133m)

 - Lost City - 1.62x (4.05m)

 - Ghostbusters - .56x (2.34m)

 

Downton is selling really well, but is only averaging about 1.5 shows per theater nationally for previews.  Most of the theaters in my tracking only have one show for some reason.

[Eric Prime]

On 5/7/2022 at 1:23 AM, Eric loves Rey said:

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	148	908	30872	2.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 159

 

Comp

1.703x of F9 T-20 (12.09M)

2.802x of No Time to Die T-20 (17.65M)

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	148	1000	30872	3.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 92

 

Comp

1.754x of F9 T-19 (12.46M)

2.544x of No Time to Die T-19 (16.03M)

[Eric Prime]

On 5/7/2022 at 1:25 AM, Eric loves Rey said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-34 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1041	23332	4.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-33 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1101	23332	4.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 60

[Goldenhour36]

Does anyone knows how well Family Camp is doing? It barely been on anyone's radar but Firestarter been getting attention tho.

[Eric Prime]

13 hours ago, Eric loves Rey said:

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	148	1000	30872	3.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 92

 

Comp

1.754x of F9 T-19 (12.46M)

2.544x of No Time to Die T-19 (16.03M)

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	148	1097	30872	3.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 97

 

Comp

1.859x of F9 T-18 (13.2M)

2.545x of No Time to Die T-18 (16.03M)

[Eric Prime]

13 hours ago, Eric loves Rey said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-33 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1101	23332	4.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 60

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-32 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1112	23332	4.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, Eric loves Rey said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-32 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1112	23332	4.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

11 seats, time to abandon ship and jump in the ice cold water of disappointment & panic?

Edited May 9, 2022 by THUNDER BIRD

[Alex SciChannel]

18 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

11 seats, time to abandon ship and jump in the ice cold water of disappointment & panic?

Stop playing. 😐

[THUNDER BIRD]

29 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Stop playing. 😐

11 seats 😒😒 

[Alex SciChannel]

8 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

11 seats 😒😒 

Every tentpole has its slumpy moments. It'll get back to 60+ seats. You'll see.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[ThomasNicole]

I will never understand these 45 days presales for a movie that everyone knows is walk up heavy 

 

People go watch these movies casually, but it's not that they won't buy it online, is just that almost everyone will wait until very close to release to get their tickets, there's no rush to get good seats knowing they won't gone soon, there's no spoilers to worry.

 

I'm pretty sure Universal could put the movie to sale 14 days before release without any negative impact on previews.

Edited May 9, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm pretty sure Universal could put the movie to sale 14 days before release without any negative impact on previews.

They can put on sale 3 days before release and it will have no impact on performance.