The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BruiseCruise]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-lightyear/

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/13/2022 at 8:41 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Doctor Strange 2	3,692	157,880	-31.33%	128,776	29,104	4,252	17,266
Firestarter	2,998	48,840		48,660	180	0	0
The Bad Guys	3,185	38,409	-2.93%	38,142	267	0	129
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	2,708	30,495	-6.08%	30,394	101	0	0
Fantastic Beasts 3	2,202	19,400	-22.20%	19,357	43	7	0
Everything Everywhere	1,580	16,530	18.42%	16,519	11	0	0
The Lost City	1,428	13,907	0.47%	13,850	57	0	0
Family Camp	851	13,401		13,376	25	0	0
The Northman	1,688	12,913	-41.50%	12,899	14	0	0
Massive Talent	964	9,526	-22.84%	9,526	0	0	0
Uncharted	1,060	6,235		6,235	0	0	0
Father Stu	697	5,060	-24.49%	5,052	8	0	0
Memory	655	4,620	-66.28%	4,620	0	0	0
Sarkaru Vaari Paata	515	4,177		4,177	0	0	0
Jayeshbhai Jordaar	334	3,139		3,139	0	0	0
The Duke	328	2,380	-36.94%	2,380	0	0	0
Don	218	1,547		1,547	0	0	0
Morbius	211	1,214	-64.97%	1,214	0	0	0
Ambulance	185	1,185	-36.02%	1,174	11	0	0
ABBA (Fan Event)	493	983		979	4	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 5/13/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Firestarter - 48,840 (2,998 TC)

 - Forever Purge - 46,917 (2,738)

 - Dog - 48,752 (3,099)

 - Ambulance - 51,310 (2,947)

Family Camp - 13,401 (851 TC)

  - Courageous (re-release) - 11,304 (967)

 - Wolf and the Lion - 12,069 (938)

 - Spencer - 11,579 (840)

 

T-1 Week

Downton Abbey (5/18 EA) - 2,601 (2,561 TC)

 - Dog (EA) - 1,099 (1,087)

 - Sing (EA) - 1,100 (1,100)

 

This is basically an extra day of previews at this point.  I haven't seen EA shows in this many theaters since I've been tracking.

 

Downton Abbey - 32,295 (2,760 TC)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

 - Moonfall - 33,048 (2,259)

 

Men - 14,289 (1,082 TC)

 - Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254)

 - Nightmare Alley - 14,207 (1,231)

 - Malignant - 13,875 (1,363)

 

 

T-2 Week Previews

Top Gun: Maverick (5/24 EA) - 970 (932 TC) (623 PLF)

  (These are likely all PLF, but the smaller chains don't provide screen type to my source)

Top Gun: Maverick (5/25 AMC EA) - 205 (204 TC)

Top Gun: Maverick (Thu Previews) - 21,595 (2,856 TC)

 - Batman - 23,704 (2,907)

 - Venom - 26,573 (2,835)

 

T-4 Week Previews

Jurassic World: Dominion - 18,957 (2,593 TC) (5,044 PLF)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - 26,823 (2,402) (6,955 PLF)

 - Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934) (2,326 IMAX)

 

Other

Twenty One Pilots Cinema Experience (5/19 & 5/22) - 1,536 (697 TC)

Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko - Fan Event (6/2) - 626 (624 TC)

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Doctor Strange 2	3,463	100,831	-36.13%	82,206	18,625	4,120	8,117
Downton Abbey 2	3,284	67,324		66,381	943	0	0
The Bad Guys	2,959	34,241	-10.85%	33,975	266	0	122
Firestarter	2,872	33,519	-31.37%	33,435	84	0	0
Men	2,100	31,745		31,688	57	0	0
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	2,475	26,543	-12.96%	26,468	75	0	0
Everything Everywhere	1,374	14,159	-14.34%	14,144	15	2	0
Fantastic Beasts 3	1,561	12,137	-37.44%	12,114	23	0	0
Family Camp	998	11,012	-17.83%	10,984	28	0	0
The Lost City	1,146	10,518	-24.37%	10,459	59	0	0
The Northman	1,010	7,132	-44.77%	7,130	2	0	0
2000 Mules	400	5,755		5,755	0	0	0
Massive Talent	715	5,685	-40.32%	5,685	0	0	0
Father Stu	410	3,127	-38.20%	3,119	8	0	0
Memory	270	2,141	-53.66%	2,141	0	0	0
Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2	197	1,877		1,877	0	0	0
Uncharted	343	1,818	-70.84%	1,818	0	0	0
21 Pilots 5/19 & 5/22	699	1,625		1,625	0	0	0
Star Trek 5/22	803	1,441		1,434	7	0	0
Sarkaru Vaari Paata	198	1,426	-65.86%	1,426	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 5/20/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Downton Abbey (5/18 EA) - 2,811 (2,755 TC)

 - American Underdog (EA) - 2,203 (1,003)

 - Dog (EA) - 1,111 (1,102)

 

Downton Abbey - 67,324 (3,284 TC)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241)

 - The Bad Guys - 67,781 (3,297)

 - Addams Family 2 - 68,219 (3,204)

 

Men - 31,745 (2,100 TC)

 - Studio 666 - 30,292 (2,145)

 - Green Knight - 30,531 (2,468)

 - Last Duel - 32,124 (2,731)

 

Twenty One Pilots Cinema Experience (5/19 & 5/22) - 1,625 (699 TC)

 

T-1 Week

Top Gun: Maverick (5/24 EA) - 1,008 (942 TC) (642 PLF)

  (These are likely all PLF, but the smaller chains don't provide screen type to my source)

Top Gun: Maverick (5/25 AMC EA) - 210 (208 TC)

Top Gun: Maverick - 130,398 (3,199 TC)

 - Batman - 125,394 (3,125)

 - Venom - 135,877 (3,146)

Bob's Burgers - 30,287 (2,109 TC)

 - Jackass Forever - 32,919 (2,445)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

 - JJK0 - 26,472 (2,001)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Jurassic World: Dominion - 19,486 (2,624 TC) (5,056 PLF)

 - Top Gun 2 - 20,170 (2,554) (2,697 PLF)

 - Batman - 21,077 (2,439) (2,426 PLF)

 

Other

Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko - Fan Event (6/2) - 644 (642 TC)

[Grebacio]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

What exactly is the model though?

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-lightyear/

Lightyear to me will be fascinating to watch how it does. Have to wonder if Lightyear does well, do we see a Woody film as well-maybe Woody toy is based on an in universe cartoon that's inspired by a real life historical cowboy in universe? Its certainly an interesting idea of doing an almost meta in universe property take. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

One more note: this very well may be old news, but just in case not ... for those of you who track sales manually, noticed today that the Fandango App gives an option to Check Seats, allowing one to scroll through the sales for an entire set of shows at a given location on a single window.

Thanks for this! Saved me loads of time on the shows with few tickets sold.  Hopefully they don't get rid of this feature.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/19/2022 at 10:22 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bob's Burgers	T-7	Jax	6	15	13	46	1,542	2.98%
		Phx	6	17	11	51	2,342	2.18%
		Ral	7	16	5	41	1,317	3.11%
	Total		19	48	29	138	5,201	2.65%
JW3 Dominion	T-21	Jax	7	107	11	536	15,994	3.35%
		Phx	6	93	8	509	15,960	3.19%
		Ral	8	67	15	547	7,529	7.27%
	Total		21	267	34	1,592	39,483	4.03%
JW3+JP	T-21	Jax	4	4	0	111	745	14.90%
		Phx	5	5	3	278	564	49.29%
		Ral	6	6	0	91	622	14.63%
	Total		15	15	3	480	1,931	24.86%
Top Gun 2	T-7	Jax	7	110	51	1,006	18,482	5.44%
		Phx	6	79	43	704	14,285	4.93%
		Ral	8	75	72	884	8,695	10.17%
	Total		21	264	166	2,594	41,462	6.26%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	8	137	655	1,166	56.17%
		Phx	1	1	7	173	208	83.17%
		Ral	2	2	3	292	412	70.87%
	Total		8	11	147	1,120	1,786	62.71%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-6	Jax	2	2	1	96	245	39.18%
		Phx	2	2	0	92	434	21.20%
		Ral	1	1	0	38	118	32.20%
	Total		5	5	1	226	797	28.36%

 

Top Gun (Thu) T-7 comps

 - Black Widow - .92x (12.09m)

 - F9 - 2.69x (19.09m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 2.18x (13.1m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.49x (18.66m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.22x (19.53m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .655x (11.52m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - 3.78x (19.66m)

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - .679x (14.66m)

 

Bob's Burgers T-7 comps

 - JJK0 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - .239x (992k)

 - Free Guy - .86x (1.9m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .89x (2.4m)

 

Added a couple more possible comps.  

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .415x (2.95m)

 - Ghostbusters - .668x (2.77m)

 - NTTD - .583x (3.03m)

 - Dune - .579x (2.95m)

 

JW3 T-21 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.18x (15.62m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.015x (17.87m)

 - Eternals - 1.616x (15.35m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bob's Burgers	T-6	Jax	6	15	9	55	1,542	3.57%
		Phx	6	17	29	80	2,342	3.42%
		Ral	7	16	5	46	1,317	3.49%
	Total		19	48	43	181	5,201	3.48%
JW3 Dominion	T-20	Jax	7	107	10	546	15,994	3.41%
		Phx	6	93	17	526	15,960	3.30%
		Ral	8	67	16	563	7,529	7.48%
	Total		21	267	43	1,635	39,483	4.14%
JW3+JP	T-20	Jax	4	4	0	111	745	14.90%
		Phx	5	5	3	281	564	49.82%
		Ral	6	6	9	100	622	16.08%
	Total		15	15	12	492	1,931	25.48%
Top Gun 2	T-6	Jax	7	110	79	1,085	18,482	5.87%
		Phx	6	79	77	781	14,285	5.47%
		Ral	8	80	78	962	9,392	10.24%
	Total		21	269	234	2,828	42,159	6.71%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-4	Jax	5	8	76	731	1,166	62.69%
		Phx	1	1	1	174	208	83.65%
		Ral	2	2	4	296	412	71.84%
	Total		8	11	81	1,201	1,786	67.25%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-5	Jax	2	2	0	96	245	39.18%
		Phx	2	2	0	92	434	21.20%
		Ral	1	1	0	38	118	32.20%
	Total		5	5	0	226	797	28.36%

 

Top Gun (Thu) T-6 comps

 - Black Widow - .94x (12.37m)

 - F9 - 2.71x (19.27m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 2.16x (12.98m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Shang-Chi - 2.18x (19.16m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - NTTD (Thu) - missed

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - missed

 

Bob's Burgers T-6 comps

 - JJK0 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Free Guy - .89x (1.96m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.05x (2.84m)

 

Added a couple more possible comps.  

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .426x (3.03m)

 - Ghostbusters - .686x (2.85m)

 - NTTD - .599x (3.11m)

 - Dune - .594x (3.03m)

 

JW3 T-20 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.14x (15.1m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .887x (15.61m)

 - Eternals - missed

Edited May 20, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex

[Alex SciChannel]

Ouchie right there dawg

[Shawn Robbins]

14 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Ouchie right there dawg

Universal is saying its Thursday only after I asked if it includes Wednesday. I've seen such a wild array of pre-sales samples. This sold pretty well in multiple markets that I undervalued in research for the first film three years ago, but some of the comments in this thread indicate it wasn't so great in other areas. Intriguing.

[filmlover]

An opening similar to the last two Toy Story flicks ($110-120M) sounds about right for Lightyear.

[Tinalera]

Interesting from the prospect of how many shows theatres will fit into scheduled showings in their theatres for upcoming Thor movie.

https://www.cbr.com/thor-love-and-thunder-short-runtime-report/

 

Long story short (aha), just under a 2 hour run time at 115 minutes-one of the shorter runtimes for an MCU movie (First Dr Strange was 112) I would think this would mean we will see more showtimes per day in theatres. 

Edited May 20, 2022 by Tinalera
updating information

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Universal is saying its Thursday only after I asked if it includes Wednesday. I've seen such a wild array of pre-sales samples. This sold pretty well in multiple markets that I undervalued in research for the first film three years ago, but some of the comments in this thread indicate it wasn't so great in other areas. Intriguing.

It will be THU only. WED looked like $700K ish. First one didn't grow on SAT, if this follows I think $14M weekend. If it does may be $15M then.

[Shawn Robbins]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It will be THU only. WED looked like $700K ish. First one didn't grow on SAT, if this follows I think $14M weekend. If it does may be $15M then.

Yeah, its best scenario to reach upper teens or near $20M is that audience habit has become less front-loaded nationally than it was on the first film (which is certainly possible since this might genuinely be the first time back for the 50+ crowd). 

 

FWIW, Friday pre-sales dwarfed Wed+Thu in my samplings. While the previews did slow quite a bit, weekend business was catching more momentum this week. We'll see if that translates or not.

[Tokugennumataka]

120M really isn't that unrealistic for Lightyear. That'll be the same as TS4, but only need 25% less admissions. But TS3 and 4 had supreme legs, so a lower multi than them could be expected. 

[filmlover]

Showtimes for The Black Phone are starting to show up but aren't on sale yet. Guessing it will be at some point next week.

[EmpireCity]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Showtimes for The Black Phone are starting to show up but aren't on sale yet. Guessing it will be at some point next week.

 

I already posted early this week when it is going on sale.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

14 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I already posted early this week when it is going on sale.  

I always lose track of these.  Would it be worth a separate thread with just these announcements?

[Alex SciChannel]

7 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Universal is saying its Thursday only after I asked if it includes Wednesday. I've seen such a wild array of pre-sales samples that I'd believe either direction. This sold pretty well in multiple markets I track (ones that I still under-estimated on the first film), but some of the comments in this thread indicate it wasn't so great in others. Intriguing.

Oh, I assumed it included Wednesday Early Access. 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I always lose track of these.  Would it be worth a separate thread with just these announcements?

If anyone can maintain this. @Eric Crawley A sheet for movies' sales start date, reaction drop and reviews drop.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RDt2xi_XXwqoSjohbpnOE0bhXhGHbF1Sm10_smzH0CA/edit#gid=0

[Alex SciChannel]

I am a bit confused. Some sources cite the original Downton Abbey as having 2.1M Thursday previews and others cite 1.5M. I presume the 2.1M figure doesn't include EA because that is cited as 2.2M. What is the 1.5M for?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/19/2022 at 11:13 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Downton	Standard	21	44	241	2,492	9.67%	$12.50	$3,012.29
T-5	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Standard	6	38	1,092	1,599	68.29%	$21.65	$23,641.80
T-7	Top Gun 2	PLF	35	57	1,400	8,485	16.50%	$16.52	$23,126.49
		Standard	61	76	716	7,878	9.09%	$12.92	$9,247.60
	Top Gun 2 Total		96	133	2,116	16,363	12.93%	$15.30	$32,374.09

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-7	Top Gun 2	N	71	85	1,848	11,782	15.68%	$15.82	$29,235.48
		Y	25	48	268	4,581	5.85%	$11.71	$3,138.61
	Top Gun 2 Total		96	133	2,116	16,363	12.93%	$15.30	$32,374.09

 

No JW3 today

 

Downton T-0 comps

 - FB3 - .12x (718k)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .12x (594k)

 - Massive Talent - 2.9x (2.4m)

 - Bad Guys - 1.6x (1.835m)

 

Not really any good comps in my short time doing Santikos. 

 

2000 Mules T-0 comps

 - Massive Talent - 1.2x (1m)

 - Northman - .433x (584k)

 

Men T-0 comps

 - Firestarter - 2.3x (861k)

 - Ambulance - 1.72x (1.2m)

 - Northman - .268x (362k)

 

Top Gun T-7 comps

 - No Way Home - .135x (6.73m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .191x (6.89m)

 - FB3 - 3.192x (19.15m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .616x (10.84m)

Santikos tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-20	JW3*	PLF	30	106	1,347	6,386	21.09%	$16.77	$22,595.81
		Standard	75	47	671	10,357	6.48%	$12.11	$8,124.10
	JW3 Total		105	153	2,018	16,743	12.05%	$15.22	$30,719.91
T-4	Top Gun 2 (EA)	PLF	6	56	1,148	1,599	71.79%	$21.65	$24,854.20
T-6	Top Gun 2	PLF	35	111	1,511	8,485	17.81%	$16.55	$25,001.91
		Standard	61	94	810	7,878	10.28%	$12.81	$10,377.22
	Top Gun 2 Total		96	205	2,321	16,363	14.18%	$15.24	$35,379.13

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-20	JW3*	N	84	131	1,744	13,674	12.75%	$15.85	$27,646.83
		Y	21	22	274	3,069	8.93%	$11.22	$3,073.08
	JW3 Total		105	153	2,018	16,743	12.05%	$15.22	$30,719.91
T-6	Top Gun 2	N	71	169	2,017	11,782	17.12%	$15.78	$31,833.46
		Y	25	36	304	4,581	6.64%	$11.66	$3,545.67
	Top Gun 2 Total		96	205	2,321	16,363	14.18%	$15.24	$35,379.137

 

*JW3 new sales since Wednesday*

 

Top Gun T-6 comps

 - No Way Home - missed

 - Doctor Strange 2 - missed

 - FB3 - 2.89x (17.36m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 

JW3 final sales (preview morning) comps

 - No Way Home - .102x (5.08m)

 - Batman + EA - .255x (5.5m)

 - DS 2 - .127x (4.58m)

 - Sonic + EA - .71x (4.44m)

 

JW3 T-20 comp

 - DS 2 - missed

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.1x (19.35m)

 - Batman + EA - .887x (19.16m)