The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-10	Jax	6	16	3	30	1,959	1.53%
		Phx	5	13	8	34	2,108	1.61%
		Ral	7	18	6	36	1,933	1.86%
	Total		18	47	17	100	6,000	1.67%
Black Phone (EA)	T-2	Jax	1	1	6	35	60	58.33%
		Phx	1	1	3	34	106	32.08%
	Total		2	2	9	69	166	41.57%
Elvis	T-10	Jax	6	26	11	98	4,520	2.17%
		Phx	6	16	5	78	2,103	3.71%
		Ral	8	20	4	78	2,074	3.76%
	Total		20	62	20	254	8,697	2.92%
Elvis (EA)	T-9	Jax	2	2	2	72	403	17.87%
	Total		2	2	2	72	403	17.87%
Lightyear	T-3	Jax	6	75	52	237	10,221	2.32%
		Phx	6	69	76	300	11,262	2.66%
		Ral	8	40	59	189	4,068	4.65%
	Total		20	184	187	726	25,551	2.84%
Lightyear (EA)	T-2	Jax	3	3	22	78	600	13.00%
		Phx	1	1	13	19	410	4.63%
		Ral	1	1	2	6	261	2.30%
	Total		5	5	37	103	1,271	8.10%
Minions 2	T-17	Jax	6	101	11	57	16,556	0.34%
		Phx	6	66	9	77	12,191	0.63%
		Ral	8	52	15	65	6,699	0.97%
	Total		20	219	35	199	35,446	0.56%
Nope	T-38	Jax	7	51	9	31	8,591	0.36%
		Phx	6	20	9	52	4,344	1.20%
		Ral	7	22	9	42	3,210	1.31%
	Total		20	93	27	125	16,145	0.77%

 

*New sales since Saturday morning*

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-3 comps

 - Bad Guys - 7.56x (8.7m)

 - Encanto (Tue) - 3.8x (5.7m)

 - Sonic 2 - .82x (4.09m)

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-10 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .21x (877k)

 - Morbius - .163x (930k)

 - Suicide Squad - .331x (1.36m)

 

Elvis (Thu) T-10 comps

 - No Time to Die - .54x (2.8m)

 - F9 - .314x (2.23m)

 - Ghostbusters - .537x (2.23m)

 - FB3 - .302x (1.81m)

 

Minions 2 T-17 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .726x (3.62m)

 

Not even gonna try for Nope.  The earliest horror I tracked was Black Phone that had 24 tickets sold in its first day.  Historically horror is not heavy on presales so I wait until the week before release.  I'll keep it in the updates but probably no comps for a few weeks at least.

 

Now on to Thor...

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thor 4	T-24	Jax	7	92	591	591	14,689	4.02%
		Phx	5	107	639	639	17,781	3.59%
		Ral	8	61	507	507	8,164	6.21%
	Total		20	260	1,737	1,737	40,634	4.27%

 

Started about an hour after window opened.  Here's where my first runs were for some comps:

 

 - DS2 (on open) - .798x (28.72m)

 - NWH (9 hr) - .184x (9.2m)

 - Batman (9 hr) - .916x (16.13m)

 

May try to get 9 hr update tonight, not sure if I'll have time though.

[filmlover]

Pretty wild that by the end of the week there's going to be at least 6 major releases (Elvis, Black Phone, Minions, Thor, Crawdads, Nope) with advance tickets on sale. Those who plan on tracking them all:

 

[Tinalera]

For anyone interested in comparing to current Minions rise of gru to Lightyear (Which opens a week after Lightyear)

 

Minions Rise of Gru

June 29/30 (thurs/fri)

 

EDIT: I might start condensing SW and Toronto together for a more complete picture (unless people WANT to see how a major city compares real time to 10 Theatres in SW Ontario), esp if Im doing more titles.

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
SW Thur	10	36	30	9079	9109	0.33
SW Fri	10	44	43	11575	11618	0.37
Tor Thurs	4	20	48	7147	7195	0.67
Tor Fri	5	30	32	10073	10105	0.32

Edited June 13, 2022 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

19 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Pretty wild that by the end of the week there's going to be at least 6 major releases (Elvis, Black Phone, Minions, Thor, Crawdads, Nope) with advance tickets on sale. Those who plan on tracking them all:

 

Um yea I think I might do NOPE closer to opening. Crawdads is new. Thor....ehhh....MCU tentpole...might have to do an earlier start. Not sure I;; do Elvis or Blackphone because I only have so much sanity.

[filmlover]

FYI in addition to Lightyear's embargo drop today the reviews for Minions will start to roll in as it opens the Annecy Animation Festival. Big week in animation!

Edited June 13, 2022 by filmlover

[Old Spice]

Thor on fire in Salt Lake City. 93 tix already sold for preview night at the Sugarhouse Cinemark, greater than the entire presale for Sonic, Lost City, Uncharted, Halloween Kills, and Morbidus. Final 24 hour presale for MOM was 247, so I'm not sure how this compares to that, maybe a smidge behind, but I'm also not certain what time tix went on sale for this. (I was surprised when I got home and saw that they were already available.)

[Grebacio]

5 hours ago, YourMother said:

Lightyear reviews today, guessing Noon-ish?

1 hour and 50 mins from now

[EmpireCity]

3 hours ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

These Lightyear sales are anemic! What are the odds that Lightyear is not the highest grossing film this weekend? Follow up question... what are the odds that Lightyear isn't in the top two highest grossing film this weekend?

 

Lol, wut?

[Porthos]

Just got done setting up my sheets.  Thankfully, the local theaters are taking pity on me and "only" had 225+ showtimes this go around (as opposed to the 300+ for MoM). 
 

L&T 12:15pm:               2519/31603 [7.97% sold] 228 showtimes

 

NWH 2am:                    6515/20399 [31.94% sold]

NWH 2pm:                 10685/24528 [43.53% sold]

Batman* 12:45 pm:       1693/32197 [5.26% sold]

MoM 1:00 pm:              5030/39515 [12.73% sold]

 

* NOTE:  The Batman had 425 tickets sold the previous two days for early bird sneaks.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Porthos

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-24	Thor 4	PLF	57	1,963	1,963	11,672	16.82%	$16.18	$31,767.88
		Standard	87	746	746	11,439	6.52%	$12.30	$9,173.97
	Total		144	2,709	2,709	23,111	11.72%	$15.11	$40,941.85

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-24	Thor 4	N	103	2,298	2,298	16,531	13.90%	$15.66	$35,976.54
		Y	41	411	411	6,580	6.25%	$12.08	$4,965.31
	Total		144	2,709	2,709	23,111	11.72%	$15.11	$40,941.85

 

Not as many shows as I expected.  Can't imagine they'll wait too long before adding more.  Started this at 2pm (5 hrs after window).  

 

Comps

 - DS2 (3.5 hrs) - .516x (18.6m)

 - Batman (19 hrs) - 1.19x (25.72m)

 - NWH (15 hrs) - .227x (11.35m)

 

Times don't really line up, but not a great start from my perspective. 

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Comps

 - DS2 (3.5 hrs) - .516x (18.6m)

 - Batman (19 hrs) - 1.19x (25.72m)

 - NWH (15 hrs) - .227x (11.35m)

 

Times don't really line up, but not a great start from my perspective. 

 

Does seem to be roughly half of MoM for the first third of the first day, if I judge my locals.  Not sure if I'd call that "not a great start" or more "reverting to mean" since MoM was juiced by being a quasi- semi- thought-to-be-partial sequel/followup to NWH.

 

Not as much fan rush, in other words.

 

Also, let's not forget the elephant in the room (and, no, I'm not talking about reception to MoM).  We just had TGM beasting all over the place, JWD doing quite a lot (even if not as much as some might like) and Lightyear/Minions doing respectable numbers on pre-sales. Whooooole lot of entertainment dollars being sucked up the last three weeks.  Not entirely surprising that Thor 4 might be a little soft considering all of that.

 

Might make comps a bit wooly for a while.  But, in the end, I ain't betting against Marvel until I am forced to.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

Thor seems tricky.

 

It's clearly in a better position than something like The Batman, but it doesn't have any reason to behave like a crossover event the way NWH / DS2 did.

 

Gigantic first days is for these movies where people worry about spoilers or not getting good seats, it's not the case with Thor. 

 

I think double The Batman first day would be a excellent number for Thor since it's a more "normal" SH movie.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

MOM was literally marketed as NWH sequel looking at trailers and instead turned out to be 

 

Spoiler

wanda vision sequel. 

 

May be due to that casual audience could wait. Let us see how PS goes. Sample data at MTC1/2 is also pointing way lower than half of what DS2 did and that is not a surprise. Its marketing has been insanely low key so far with just 2 trailers and though we saw Pratt, it seems self contained rather than another movie leading to next Avengers. BTW is there even a plan for next Avengers movie?

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Just got done setting up my sheets.  Thankfully, the local theaters are taking pity on me and "only" had 225+ showtimes this go around (as opposed to the 300+ for MoM). 
 

L&T 12:15pm:               2519/31603 [7.97% sold] 228 showtimes

 

NWH 2am:                    6515/20399 [31.94% sold]

NWH 2pm:                 10685/24528 [43.53% sold]

Batman* 12:45 pm:       1693/32197 [5.26% sold]

MoM 1:00 pm:              5030/39515 [12.73% sold]

 

* NOTE:  The Batman had 425 tickets sold the previous two days for early bird sneaks.

Those theatres must really like you to take pity on you like that

 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Thor seems tricky.

 

It's clearly in a better position than something like The Batman, but it doesn't have any reason to behave like a crossover event the way NWH / DS2 did.

 

Gigantic first days is for these movies where people worry about spoilers or not getting good seats, it's not the case with Thor. 

 

I think double The Batman first day would be a excellent number for Thor since it's a more "normal" SH movie.

 

 

 

I think it'll probably be closer to around 150% of The Batman's "true" first day of pre-sales here (not counting the two days where only three early access showings were available), as it's about 49% ahead right now.  Maybe 175% if it's more of a backfill/I finished up earlier than MoM situation.  To get to 200% of Batsy's first real day of sales, it'd have to nearly double the amount of sales it's had when I finished setting up my sheets.

 

This is Marvel, so absolutely possible.  Just don't want some folks wailing and gnashing their teeth if it doesn't hit, oh say 4800 tickets sold locally.

 

Absolutely agree that Thor 4 is tricky, though.  Should be fun to see how the pre-sale run plays out. 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Those theatres must really like you to take pity on you like that

 

 

They are obviously doing me a solid for tracking Nope for 40+ days. 😂

[keysersoze123]

More I think its previews are targeting around $25m. MCU at this point has such a strong fan base that it will be front loaded. Plus this is a very well known character seen for past 11 years including central role in all Avengers movies. Let us see how presales go. It does have a long presales run and Disney could still pull in when they get reviews out to get buzz rolling. 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Lol, wut?

I don’t think either would happen lol but like I wouldn’t be surprised at this point a sub 60m OW for Lightyear.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

121

1609

7.52%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

61

1243

4.91%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
452	163	16230	2.78%	15	120

 

AMCs sold	394
Cinemarks sold	27
Regals sold	17
Harkins sold	14

 

Wednesday

Total

116

90

2111

Overall

Grand Total

568

253

18341

 

3.69x Encanto T-4 (5.53M)

0.798x Ghostbusters T-4 (3.59M)

2.67x Free Guy T-4 (5.87M)

2.62x Jungle Cruise T-4 (7.07M)

Lightyear Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

135

1609

8.39%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

74

1243

5.95%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
550	98	16230	3.39%	15	120

 

Wednesday

Total

147

31

2111

Overall

Grand Total

697

129

18341

 

3.85x Encanto T-3 (5.78M)

0.847x Ghostbusters T-3 (3.81M)

2.70x Free Guy T-3 (5.94M)

2.65x Jungle Cruise T-3 (7.16M)

[XXR & Friends]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

BTW is there even a plan for next Avengers movie?

Of course. We just aren’t privy to what it is yet.