The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[John Marston]

Not unrealistic for BP. Everything is pointing at a decent sized drop from the first. 

[GOGODanca]

Barring some Morbius tier WOM, i can't see BP2 opening below 175m

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Can you include F9 comp? 

 

I don't think it's that useful, especially since I have to adjust for lack of Ontario and I wouldn't be accounting for ticket price hikes since then, but... 6.997m.

 

I'll think about adding it formally going forward.

 

(starting tonight I'd also have to start adjusting for unreliable seat maps owing to that theater chain spitting out bogus seat maps for a couple of weeks)

Edited October 7, 2022 by Porthos

[jedijake]

58 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Not unrealistic for BP. Everything is pointing at a decent sized drop from the first. 

I can see a possible 36% drop in total domestic for BPWF. But not a 36% drop in OW.

[charlie Jatinder]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I don't think it's that useful, especially since I have to adjust for lack of Ontario and I wouldn't be accounting for ticket price hikes since then, but... 6.997m.

 

I'll think about adding it formally going forward.

 

(starting tonight I'd also have to start adjusting for unreliable seat maps owing to that theater chain spitting out bogus seat maps for a couple of weeks)

Usually it won't mean much but the film has Rock and that could make it a bit backloaded. F9 may cover that Rock audience.

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Usually it won't mean much but the film has Rock and that could make it a bit backloaded. F9 may cover that Rock audience.

 

There might be another reason for the film to be a bit backloaded, but fair enough.  Like I said, I'll think about it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

There might be another reason for the film to be a bit backloaded, but fair enough.  Like I said, I'll think about it.

What's the other reason?

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

What's the other reason?

 

The rumors/spec currently being discussed in the Black Adam thread might drive something of a bump in pre-sales, depending on just how much people care about that sort of thing.

 

Trying to be circumspect here for folks who haven't been checking out the thread/plugged into said rumors, but there is recent precedence for that sort of thing giving a bump to pre-sales (though that was also mixed in with WoM from fan screenings, so not exactly an apples to apples comparison).

Edited October 7, 2022 by Porthos

[Eric Prime]

15 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

What's the other reason?

Spoiler

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

121

1482

8.16%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

79

1436

5.50%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
484	42	20747	2.33%	15	99

 

AMCs sold	360
Cinemarks sold	68
Regals sold	28
Harkins sold	28

 

0.364x Eternals T-14 (3.46M)

1.82x Suicide Squad T-14 (7.46M)

 

No Jurassic World or Batman comp today

Black Adam Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

131

1482

8.84%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

86

1436

5.99%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
526	42	20747	2.54%	15	99

 

AMCs sold	386
Cinemarks sold	70
Regals sold	37
Harkins sold	33

 

0.374x Eternals T-13 (3.55M)

1.85x Suicide Squad T-13 (7.59M)

1.02x F9 T-13 (7.22M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-14 Thursday(68 showings): 343(+50)/22864

0.324x Eternals T-14 (3.08M)

 

T-15 Friday(111 showings): 266(+30)/38878

0.318x Eternals T-15 (6.78M)

 

T-16 Saturday(105 showings): 232(+38)/37304

0.617x Eternals T-16 (14.88M)

 

T-17 Sunday(102 showings): 72(+0)/35906

0.766x Eternals T-17 (12.51M)

Black Adam Megaplex

 

T-13 Thursday(68 showings): 372(+29)/22864

0.327x Eternals T-13 (3.11M)

 

T-14 Friday(111 showings): 319(+53)/38878

0.396x Eternals T-14 (8.45M)

 

T-15 Saturday(105 showings): 260(+28)/37304

0.644x Eternals T-15 (15.52M)

 

T-16 Sunday(102 showings): 94(+24)/35906

0.979x Eternals T-16 (15.99M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-14 Thursday(111 showings): 1242(+151)/17669 ATP: $15.35

0.283x Eternals T-14 (2.69M)

 

T-15 Friday(132 showings): 954(+159)/21196 ATP: $15.61

0.255x Eternals T-15 (5.45M)

 

T-16 Saturday(139 showings): 1046(+168)/22286 ATP: $14.91

0.275x Eternals T-16 (6.64M)

 

T-17 Sunday(118 showings): 321(+65)/18818 ATP: $13.64

0.148x Eternals T-17 (2.41M)

Black Adam Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-13 Thursday(111 showings): 1311(+69)/17669 ATP: $15.27

0.291x Eternals T-13 (2.76M)

 

T-14 Friday(132 showings): 1033(+79)/21196 ATP: $15.68

0.263x Eternals T-14 (5.62M)

 

T-15 Saturday(139 showings): 1105(+59)/22286 ATP: $14.82

0.280x Eternals T-15 (6.76M)

 

T-16 Sunday(118 showings): 328(+7)/18818 ATP: $13.54

0.142x Eternals T-16 (2.32M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

527

3301

15.96%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

356

2758

12.91%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2347	216	31920	7.35%	15	220

 

AMCs sold	1506
Cinemarks sold	438
Regals sold	191
Harkins sold	212

 

0.640x Thor L&T Day 4 (18.57M)

0.774x Batman Day 4 (16.73M)

 

No Doctor Strange comp. Tomorrow will be the last day of Day X comps, then we'll just have to wait for the T-X comps

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

547

3301

16.57%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

370

2758

13.42%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2430	83	31920	7.61%	15	220

 

AMCs sold	1556
Cinemarks sold	460
Regals sold	194
Harkins sold	220

 

0.636x Thor L&T Day 5 (18.43M)

2.20x Jurassic World 3 T-34 (39.55M)

0.419x Doctor Strange MoM Day 5 (15.09M)

0.781x Batman Day 5 (16.86M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-35 Thursday(98 showings): 1600(+238)/28944

0.490x Thor L&T Day 4 (14.20M)

0.423x Batman Day 4 (9.14M)

 

T-36 Friday(157 showings): 750(+98)/44420

0.467x Thor L&T Day 4 (23.14M)

0.651x Batman Day 4 (22.79M)

 

T-37 Saturday(149 showings): 369(+78)/43450

0.477x Thor L&T Day 4 (20.09M)

0.653x Batman Day 4 (28.25M)

 

T-38 Sunday(137 showings): 61(+13)/41486

0.288x Thor L&T Day 4 (9.36M)

0.570x Batman Day 4 (19.46M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

 

T-34 Thursday(98 showings): 1674(+74)/28944

0.489x Thor L&T Day 5 (14.19M)

2.31x Jurassic World 3 T-34 (41.56M)

0.285x Doctor Strange MoM Day 5 (10.25M)

0.428x Batman Day 5 (9.25M)

 

T-35 Friday(157 showings): 778(+28)/44420

0.452x Thor L&T Day 5 (22.40M)

1.40x Jurassic World 3 T-35 (58.23M)

0.283x Doctor Strange MoM Day 5 (15.48M)

0.612x Batman Day 5 (21.41M)

 

T-36 Saturday(149 showings): 400(+31)/43450

0.483x Thor L&T Day 5 (20.34M)

1.11x Jurassic World 3 T-36 (52.05M)

0.289x Doctor Strange MoM Day 5 (16.73M)

0.672x Batman Day 5 (29.08M)

 

T-37 Sunday(137 showings): 65(+4)/41486

0.255x Thor L&T Day 5 (8.29M)

1.03x Jurassic World 3 T-37 (39.76M)

0.197x Doctor Strange MoM Day 5 (7.66M)

0.556x Batman Day 5 (18.97M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-35 Thursday(219 showings): 8828(+1007)/30510 ATP: $16.10

0.946x Thor L&T Day 4 (27.42M)

1.24x Batman Day 4 (21.79M, Thurs only)

 

T-36 Friday(327 showings): 8229(+1780)/46457 ATP: $15.88

1.21x Thor L&T Day 4 (59.96M)

1.22x Batman Day 4 (42.71M)

 

T-37 Saturday(330 showings): 6637(+1501)/47364 ATP: $15.44

1.10x Thor L&T Day 4 (46.32M)

1.17x Batman Day 4 (50.58M)

 

T-38 Sunday(319 showings): 3010(+906)/45087 ATP: $15.27

1.05x Thor L&T Day 4 (34.13M)

1.31x Batman Day 4 (44.83M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-34 Thursday(219 showings): 9077(+249)/30510 ATP: $16.10

0.917x Thor L&T Day 5 (26.60M)

3.47x Jurassic World 3 T-34 (62.53M)

0.677x Doctor Strange MoM Day 5 (24.39M)

1.26x Batman Day 5 (22.09M, Thurs only)

 

T-35 Friday(327 showings): 8603(+374)/46457 ATP: $15.87

1.18x Thor L&T Day 5 (58.47M)

4.56x Jurassic World 3 T-35 (189.65M)

0.825x Doctor Strange MoM Day 5 (45.13M)

1.24x Batman Day 5 (43.24M)

 

T-36 Saturday(330 showings): 6972(+335)/47364 ATP: $15.40

1.06x Thor L&T Day 5 (44.64M)

3.58x Jurassic World 3 T-36 (167.87M)

0.673x Doctor Strange MoM Day 5 (38.89M)

1.15x Batman Day 5 (49.87M)

 

T-37 Sunday(319 showings): 3232(+222)/45087 ATP: $15.50

1.01x Thor L&T Day 5 (32.74M)

4.68x Jurassic World 3 T-37 (180.80M)

0.715x Doctor Strange MoM Day 5 (27.82M)

1.31x Batman Day 5 (44.82M)

 

600M OW incoming

[Nikostar]

Not an expert on presales but it seems like these numbers looks very promising for WF

[jedijake]

Wow! These numbers are really going up!!!🤣

Edited October 8, 2022 by jedijake

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

55 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

T-34 Thursday(219 showings): 9077(+249)/30510 ATP: $16.10

3.47x Jurassic World 3 T-34 (62.53M)

 

T-35 Friday(327 showings): 8603(+374)/46457 ATP: $15.87

4.56x Jurassic World 3 T-35 (189.65M)

 

T-36 Saturday(330 showings): 6972(+335)/47364 ATP: $15.40

3.58x Jurassic World 3 T-36 (167.87M)

 

 

T-37 Sunday(319 showings): 3232(+222)/45087 ATP: $15.50

4.68x Jurassic World 3 T-37 (180.80M)

 

 

Obviously these are the best metrics for comparison 

[jedijake]

Those JWD comp numbers are pretty funny. I can hardly understand how these comps work, but they are still pretty funny to look at.

 

Go $1.5 billion domestic total! LOL

[Inceptionzq]

57 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Those JWD comp numbers are pretty funny. I can hardly understand how these comps work, but they are still pretty funny to look at.

JWD wasn’t nearly as presale heavy as Black Panther is gonna be, and a lot of Alamo Drafthouse locations are in urban regions where Black Panther will do best.