The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 10/5/2022 at 12:08 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-38 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	292	32828	36551	3723	10.19%

 

Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	1571
Total Seats Sold Today	469

 

Day 2 Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	115.09		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	31.67%		24.86m
MoM	50.29		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	17.63%		18.10m
L&T	78.81		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	21.95%		22.85m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wakanda Forever's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       124/5034  [2.46% sold]
Matinee:    165/4102  [4.02% | 4.43% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-37 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	292	32534	36551	4017	10.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

294

 

Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	118.43		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	34.17%		25.58m
MoM	51.36		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	19.02%		18.49m
L&T	79.39		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	23.68%		23.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wakanda Forever's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       157/5034  [3.12% sold]
Matinee:    172/4102  [4.19% | 4.28% of all tickets sold]

[TwoMisfits]

Not sure if this is nationwide, but my local Cinemark has gotten rid of 1st show discounts and has raised prices again for this weekend...lowest ticket price for a matinee is now $12.50 (and kid tickets are $11.50).  This should help box office for those who actually go, but hold down box office for those who are on the fence.  Now, the only normal discounts are cheap Tuesday and senior Monday...

 

I thought about Lyle, Lyle this weekend, but it's too rich for my blood at that price (and I don't want to use my subscription credit since the kid wants Black Adam and Halloween - he may not get Halloween, either, but that may be b/c it's R rated and I have Peacock, and I can't mentally spend a ton for a movie that probably sucks:)...

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Amsterdam	T-1	Jax	6	18	5	33	3,789	0.87%
		Phx	7	15	5	68	3,003	2.26%
		Ral	8	20	7	41	2,227	1.84%
	Total		21	53	17	142	9,019	1.57%
Black Adam	T-15	Jax	6	67	17	187	11,479	1.63%
		Phx	6	42	26	221	8,661	2.55%
		Ral	8	61	28	231	8,649	2.67%
	Total		20	170	71	639	28,789	2.22%
Halloween Ends	T-8	Jax	5	30	10	131	5,666	2.31%
		Phx	6	22	7	122	4,065	3.00%
		Ral	8	38	10	160	5,035	3.18%
	Total		19	90	27	413	14,766	2.80%
Lyle Lyle	T-1	Jax	5	33	3	14	3,572	0.39%
		Phx	7	21	11	31	2,827	1.10%
		Ral	8	28	26	50	3,329	1.50%
	Total		20	82	40	95	9,728	0.98%

 

Lyle Lyle T-1 comps

 - Super Pets - .321x (706k)

 - Bad Guys - .625x (719k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .888x (799k)

 - Paws of Fury - .96x (485k)

 

Amsterdam T-1 comps

 - Bullet Train - .192x (642k)

 - Beast - .855x (791k)

 - Massive Talent - .743x (520k)

 - Free Guy - .351x (773k)

 - The Last Duel - 1.671x (585k)

 - Death on the Nile - .57x (627k)

 

Halloween Ends T-8 comps
 - Nope - .83x (5.34m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.21x (4.95m)

 - Black Phone + EA - 2.17x (6.52m)

 

Note: HK I started at T-7 (432 sold); Scream I only have T-0

 

Black Adam T-15 comps

 - Eternals - missed

 - TG2 - .395x (5.8m)

 - Black Widow - .357x (4.71m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.7x (11.05m)

 - JW3 Total - .257x (4.62m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Amsterdam	T-0	Jax	6	18	5	38	3,789	1.00%
		Phx	7	15	6	74	3,003	2.46%
		Ral	8	20	20	61	2,227	2.74%
	Total		21	53	31	173	9,019	1.92%
Halloween Ends	T-7	Jax	5	30	5	136	5,666	2.40%
		Phx	6	22	20	142	4,065	3.49%
		Ral	8	39	12	172	5,181	3.32%
	Total		19	91	37	450	14,912	3.02%
Lyle Lyle	T-0	Jax	5	33	9	23	3,572	0.64%
		Phx	7	21	11	42	2,827	1.49%
		Ral	8	28	20	70	3,329	2.10%
	Total		20	82	40	135	9,728	1.39%

 

Lyle Lyle T-0 comps

 - Super Pets - .294x (647k)

 - Bad Guys - .622x (715k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .523x (471k)

 - Paws of Fury - 1.015x (513k)

All PG movies - 462k

All 3pm previews - 373k

All movies - 430k

 

Really not loving the All comps here.  Took a look at sales pace and I'd put my projection at 630k.

 

Amsterdam T-0 comps

 - Bullet Train - .166x (555k)

 - Beast - .749x (692k)

 - Massive Talent - .658x (460k)

 - Free Guy - .302x (664k)

 - The Last Duel - 1.311x (459k)

 - Death on the Nile - .512x (563k)

All action movies - 434k

All R movies - 568k

All movies - 550k

 

Sales pace here is looking like 650k (excluding the EA from last week that looked like around 200k)

 

Halloween Ends T-7 comps

 - Halloween Kills - 1.04x (5.05m)
 - Nope - .856x (5.48m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.14x (4.66m)

 

Note: Scream I only have T-0

 

Heading on vacation for the next week, but I'll try to run showtimes tomorrow at least.

[Tinalera]

36 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Not sure if this is nationwide, but my local Cinemark has gotten rid of 1st show discounts and has raised prices again for this weekend...lowest ticket price for a matinee is now $12.50 (and kid tickets are $11.50).  This should help box office for those who actually go, but hold down box office for those who are on the fence.  Now, the only normal discounts are cheap Tuesday and senior Monday...

 

I thought about Lyle, Lyle this weekend, but it's too rich for my blood at that price (and I don't want to use my subscription credit since the kid wants Black Adam and Halloween - he may not get Halloween, either, but that may be b/c it's R rated and I have Peacock, and I can't mentally spend a ton for a movie that probably sucks:)...

I have to think at some point Cineplex up here in Canada starts raising prices too, right now other than the MCU/Disney tentpoles, just across the board seeing lower seat counts for films overall, which I think will lead to the inevitable raising of admissions (and of course concessions)

[filmlover]

Lyle begins at 51 on MC with 11 reviews.

[ringedmortality]

So Lyle Lyle is looking to go less than 10?

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, ringedmortality said:

So Lyle Lyle is looking to go less than 10?

Nah it’ll do 20-25x previews.

[filmlover]

No box office will be reported but:

 

‘Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery’ To Hit Theaters At Thanksgiving Via AMC, Regal & Cinemark In Rare Netflix Deal – Deadline

 

So basically, we have 5 wide releases (Strange World, Devotion, The Fabelmans, Bones and All, Glass Onion) opening on the Thanksgiving frame this year.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

No box office will be reported but:

 

‘Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery’ To Hit Theaters At Thanksgiving Via AMC, Regal & Cinemark In Rare Netflix Deal – Deadline

 

So basically, we have 5 wide releases (Strange World, Devotion, The Fabelmans, Bones and All, Glass Onion) opening on the Thanksgiving frame this year.

 

Theaters got nervous on the Black Panther presales and the Strange Worlds buzz and decided they would like to make some money in their smaller side screens for the big movie going week (aka - theaters think those 2 big movies are gonna need fewer screens/showings than expected for Thanksgiving week, so there are some available for money making for everyone)...

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Theaters got nervous on the Black Panther presales and the Strange Worlds buzz and decided they would like to make some money in their smaller side screens for the big movie going week (aka - theaters think those 2 big movies are gonna need fewer screens/showings than expected for Thanksgiving week, so there are some available for money making for everyone)...

I doubt it'll make a difference tbh when most of these movies have limited potential to begin with. Bones and All in particular is a movie that's likely destined to make little in theaters (and find an audience on streaming).

[Eric S'ennui]

16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Theaters got nervous on the Black Panther presales and the Strange Worlds buzz and decided they would like to make some money in their smaller side screens for the big movie going week (aka - theaters think those 2 big movies are gonna need fewer screens/showings than expected for Thanksgiving week, so there are some available for money making for everyone)...

It's only 600 theaters doing this.

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

It's only 600 theaters doing this.

 

Right, the biggest ones, which are usually stuck with 10th and 11th screens for blockbusters...

 

A little 6 screener won't need to book it with 4 other openers and Black Panther as a holdover...but a 24 screener?  Yeah...

[filmlover]

They're probably taking advantage of the fact none of the Thanksgiving openers seem likely to explode to blockbuster numbers (think everyone will be impressed if Strange World manages to outgross Lightyear with less going for it) and also they remembered how big the first movie was in theaters so it's sort of a "best of both worlds" situation where it gets some theatrical play but Netflix continues their plan of staying out of the theatrical business.

[Krissykins]

I wonder if Smile could win the weekend again. 
 

Possible after the great Wednesday hold, if Lyle Lyle Crocodile goes under $15m. 

[ringedmortality]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

(think everyone will be impressed if Strange World manages to outgross Lightyear with less going for it

 

Geez, is Strange World really looking to do that bad?

[Eric S'ennui]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Geez, is Strange World really looking to do that bad?

Disney animated movies aren't theatrical events anymore. People prefer waiting a couple months and watching them at home. If a Toy Story movie, even one nobody wanted, can barely get to 100M, what else will?

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Geez, is Strange World really looking to do that bad?

It seems highly reminiscent of Atlantis and Treasure Planet, both of which were massive bombs (that killed the hand-drawn division) 20 years ago. The Disney brand has never had much luck with sci-fi though long before Lightyear: Mars Needs Moms, John Carter, Tomorrowland, A Wrinkle in Time, they were all notable failures for them as well. And though it didn't bomb, Tron: Legacy's gross was seen as a semi-disappointment too given the expensive year-long marketing campaign they put into it.

Edited October 6, 2022 by filmlover

[el sid]

Amsterdam, counted today at 12pm EST for today:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 32 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 38 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 5 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 91 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 108 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 289.

Up 30% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): Death on the Nile had 466 sold tickets,
Bullet Train had 1.508
and Crawdads had 262.
 

Amsterdam, counted today at 12pm EST for tomorrow:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 63 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 24 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 14 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 16 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 66 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 94 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 281.

Up decent 42.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday; unfortunately no DWD for that day): Death on the Nile had 487 sold tickets,
BT had 1.250,
Crawdads had 262
and Ambulance had 391 sold tickets.

So the Crawdads comp is the only one which point to more than 15M OW. At least the Friday jump was quite good. But still, 10-15M OW IMO.
 

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile, counted today at 12pm EST for Thursday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 22 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 11 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 17 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 33 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 34 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 134.
 

Up modest 27% since yesterday.
Comp: The Legend of Hank had also on Thursday for Thursday 138 sold tickets.
 

LLC, counted today at 12pm EST for tomorrow:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 43 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 23 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 17 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 27 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 121.

Up 25% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): The Legend of Hank had 103 sold tickets,
JC had 817,
Boss Baby 2 had 190
and Paw Patrol had 315 sold tickets
and Clifford had 152 sold tickets.

Well, I have no idea how popular or well known the books and the figure still are. So it's hard to guess which comp is the best. This week, I'm conservative and say 10M+ OW.

Edited October 6, 2022 by el sid

[el sid]

And a very long counting in short form:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever had, counted today and yesterday (the first 5 theaters are from yesterday, I completely underestimated how long it will take):
 

For Thursday, November 10 3.651 sold tickets.
Comps: BW had with ca. 1 month left 300 sold tickets in 4 of these 7 theaters (in NY, Michigan, Texas and Arizona). Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has in the same 4 theaters 706 sold tickets = x2.35 = 188M + it's no Disney+ Day and Date release, which would of course mean (way) more than 200M OW (I admit that's a very rough comp ).
And SC's final presales number was 3.617.
 

And for Friday, November 11 it had 2.442 sold tickets.
Comps: SC's final presales number was 3.740 sold tickets
and TSS had with 20 days left 292 sold tickets (with an unpopular predecessor and HBO Max).
 

Looks promising to me.

Edited October 6, 2022 by el sid

[Eric S'ennui]

14 hours ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Amsterdam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	38	214	6601	3.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 18

 

Comp

1.019x of Dear Evan Hansen T-1 (815K)

3.508x of The Last Duel T-1 (1.23M)

0.585x of House of Gucci T-1 (760K)

0.811x of West Side Story T-1 (648K)

0.817x of Death on the Nile T-1 (898K)

0.276x of The Lost City T-1 (899K)

0.517x of The Northman T-1 (698K)

0.290x of Elvis T-1 (1.02M)

0.149x of Don't Worry Darling T-1 (462K)

Amsterdam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	38	240	6601	3.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

0.767x of Dear Evan Hansen (613K)

2.449x of The Last Duel (857K)

0.399x of House of Gucci (519K)

0.622x of West Side Story (497K)

0.627x of Death on the Nile (689K)

0.235x of The Lost City (763K)

0.393x of The Northman (531K)

0.223x of Elvis (782K)

0.136x of Don't Worry Darling (423K)

 

I love karma. So, so, sooooooooo very much.