The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-man movies and they were not universally beloved or anything

they are.

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why would this one break out like that.

because its a story event. yes pre-sales were surprising but always expected QM will blow up big time. Marvel trequel jumps are massive.

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There were good 2+ weeks where that trend was crystal clear. it was selling well below Wakanda and Thor on similar days and trending down

I have only played attention to Harkins dailies, and it was selling very well there, until reactions came. It was 76% of WF at T-27 and reached 84% at T-16 and then started the downward trend.

[Flamengo81]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

F9. But everyone was off on that. 

Oh yeah, forgot about that one. It's still very impressive, even Venom 2 which was a tricky one I think Sacto got it right...

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

But is Batman more pre-sales heavy than the current MCU?

I need to check but I think yes.

  

5 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

The Batman did 17.6M previews and still opened to 134M (it had the EA thing but still), Ant-Man is going to do the same or above and will strugle to go past 100M.

1, that EA thing matters. Previews were $21M to $134M. 
2, LOL NO. Ant-Man isn't struggling for 100M yet. 18M+ previews will still see it reach around $110M unless we see very bad SAT.

Edited February 17, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[GOGODanca]

@Porthos which super bowl bet should I place my retirement on next year?

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

they are.

because its a story event. yes pre-sales were surprising but always expected QM will blow up big time. Marvel trequel jumps are massive.

I have only played attention to Harkins dailies, and it was selling very well there, until reactions came. It was 76% of WF at T-27 and reached 84% at T-16 and then started the downward trend.

Harkins was overperforming a bit. Even expecting much better reception, it had slowed a tad in the intervening days since day 1, I wasn't expecting that 25-150 number though I did think it would hit 23. 

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I need to check but I think yes.

  

1, that EA thing matters. Previews were $21M to $134M. 
2, LOL NO. Ant-Man isn't struggling for 100M yet. 18M+ previews will still see it reach around $110M unless we see very bad SAT.

It wasn't as presale-heavy as the big sellers like DS2/Thor/WF. 18/110 is also far from guaranteed though it could happen. 100 isn't locked if things don't go well. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Joyous Legion]

24 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Well I am quite confused.

 

Previews of 18-19M and a multiplier of 5.5 still?

Yeah, like 17-19*5.3-6.3

[keysersoze123]

Terrible idea to start presales for Shazam today when we have a big opener. Should have waited until next tuesday. 

 

Anyway

Shazam 2 MTC1 previews - 6846/442498 127181.96 2143 shows

 

One thing I would say is its starting with reasonable number of shows. So its expected to at least hit 5m previews. 1st day number is still meh but it has an Ant sized excuse for sure. 

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

This shit is just mind blowing. I became a member one year ago, but I checked over here since before and I have a hard time remembering Phortos and his damn Sacto being off.

 

9 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

F9. But everyone was off on that. 

 

(my most recent "big miss" was probably The Batman, but lack of DC comps locally hurt me big time there)

 

Still, let's wait for actuals to come in before fêting Sacramento's Dark Magic too much.  

[Flamengo81]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

I need to check but I think yes.

That would be really interesting. Do we have the infos about previews since Batman Begins? Because if The Numbers is right about the preveiws numbers then TDK had a 8.5x IM, TDKR a 5.3x (heavily impacted by the mass shooting), BvS a 6x (with extremely toxic WOM) and The Batman 7.6x (without the EA), which gives an average of 6.8x.

[Flamengo81]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

2, LOL NO. Ant-Man isn't struggling for 100M yet. 18M+ previews will still see it reach around $110M unless we see very bad SAT.

Do you mean 3-day or 4-day? Because 3-day is a tossup IMO.

[ZackM]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

it does not sell after 530PM snapshot I took and this is where I take a final number. I am sure @ZackM will grab any walkups for late west coast shows. 

It's at 313k as of an hour-ish ago.  Will definitely get past 315k with final west coast shows, which I think should put it at around 18.5M.

Edited February 17, 2023 by ZackM

[Flamengo81]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1, that EA thing matters. Previews were $21M to $134M. 

That is fair, but would still be a 6.3x which is significantly higher than MoM and Love and Thunder and almost equal to Wakanda Forever.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

That is fair, but would still be a 6.3x which is significantly higher than MoM and Love and Thunder and almost equal to Wakanda Forever.

Not really comparables. 

Batman was much better received also MOM much bigger previews, Thor Summer.

If received well, QM would have targeted 6-6.5x from 23-25M previews IMO.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

That is fair, but would still be a 6.3x which is significantly higher than MoM and Love and Thunder and almost equal to Wakanda Forever.

Legs of batman was better despite no holiday boost or summer legs. It did great until HBO max release. So kudos considering its like nth iteration of batman and compared to it even Nolan movie felt like a MCU movie :-)

[Flamengo81]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not really comparables. 

Batman was much better received also MOM much bigger previews, Thor Summer.

If received well, QM would have targeted 6-6.5x from 23-25M previews IMO.

We will have to see how MCU and Batman movies performs from now on to have a better perspective I think. But given the MCU is becoming more and more frontloaded and the latest Batman movie was not too frontloaded, I personally have a hard time saying that Batman movies are more pre-sales heavy than the current MCU. It's also hard to find really accurate comparions as there is always variants that makes things more inconclusive.

[Eric is Quiet]

22 hours ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	486	8200	5.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

 

Comp - T-22

2.260x of Scream (7.91M)

2.132x of Nope (13.64M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	529	8200	6.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 43

 

Comp - T-21

2.290x of Scream (8.01M)

2.177x of Nope (13.93M)

[Borobudur]

23 minutes ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

The big issue that Shazam faces is the same issue Dark Phoenix was in a couple years ago. It was greenlit and produced before a huge franchise/corporate restructuring, and it now exists as a weird thing that doesn't build up to anything. So that means there's no investment for the fans, who are all preoccupied with the new Gunnverse stuff that's starting with The Flash, and by proxy the normies don't care either.

 

...still gonna track it tho lol

Shazam should be still quite feasible to blend in with Gunnverse. They never actually show who is it the Superman in the after credit scene. 

 

Also, it is also quite dumb for WB to just write off Shazam, it is not like they have a lot of series in their active library now. Not to mention they got to mitigate some risk coming off from Miller's involvement in Flash.

 

Can you imagine Disney just throw away Avatar franchise because they were greenlit before the takeover? 

[Eric is Quiet]

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	78	138	15904	0.87%

 

Comp - T-28

0.115x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.07M)

 

Comp - First Day of Sales

0.411x of Black Adam (3.12M)

 

None of my planned comps go out this far, so...here's this flimsy one I guess.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Eric is Quiet]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Shazam should be still quite feasible to blend in with Gunnverse. They never actually show who is it the Superman in the after credit scene. 

 

Also, it is also quite dumb for WB to just write off Shazam, it is not like they have a lot of series in their active library now. Not to mention they got to mitigate some risk coming off from Miller's involvement in Flash.

 

Can you imagine Disney just throw away Avatar franchise because they were greenlit before the takeover? 

 

3 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Shazam should be still quite feasible to blend in with Gunnverse. They never actually show who is it the Superman in the after credit scene. 

 

Also, it is also quite dumb for WB to just write off Shazam, it is not like they have a lot of series in their active library now. Not to mention they got to mitigate some risk coming off from Miller's involvement in Flash.

 

Can you imagine Disney just throw away Avatar franchise because they were greenlit before the takeover? 

 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

22 hours ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-92 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	241	17734	1.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-91 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	246	17734	1.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Not gonna track this until next Thursday. Feels nice to have some peace and quiet.