The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

Porthos · February 16, 2023

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

305

28519

37173

8654

23.28%

Total Showings Added Today

16

Total Seats Added Today

744

Total Seats Sold Today

979

T-1 Comps

%

Sold
T-1

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

Comp

ET

185.23

739

4672

0/136

13796/18468

25.30%

6409

135.03%

17.60m

MoM

47.38

1695

18267

0/404

28068/46335

39.42%

21117

40.98%

17.06m

L&T

64.03

2246

13516

0/312

25975/39491

34.23%

16962

51.02%

18.57m

BP2

63.53

1695

13622

2/375

29516/43138

31.58%

16800

51.51%

17.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:    2173/14211 [15.29% sold]
Matinee:   431/3941 [10.94% | 4.98% of all tickets sold]
3D:           1014/6153 [16.48% | 11.72% of all tickets sold]

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:35am - 12:25pm]

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	308	27981	37373	9392	25.13%

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	3
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	200
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	738

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%	Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Comp
ET [12:00-12:30]	176.74	642	5314	0/136	13154/18468	28.77%	6409	146.54%	16.79m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	48.26	1194	19461	0/409	27068/46529	41.83%	21117	44.48%	17.37m
TGM [11:30-12:30]	90.63	707	10363	2/345	32649/43012	24.09%	11474	81.85%	17.91m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	98.97	1071	9490	0/290	24248/33738	28.13%	10966	85.65%	17.81m
L&T [11:30-12:25]	63.01	1390	14906	0/313	24653/39559	37.68%	16962	55.37%	18.27m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	63.69	1125	14747	2/375	28391/43138	34.19%	16800	55.90%	17.83m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:    2385/14211 [16.78% sold]
Matinee:   521/3941 [13.22% | 5.55% of all tickets sold]
3D:           1135/6211 [18.27% | 12.08% of all tickets sold]

====

notgreatnotterrible DOT gif

Guesstimating around 18m at final bell, presuming Sacto isn't under-performing for Marvel for once. If Sacto is under-perfoming, I do have a The Batman comp coming in at 19.36m for the mid-day. But that film (and DC in general) doesn't do as well as Marvel does locally.

Just have to see how the rest of the day goes.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Porthos

Menor the Destroyer · February 16, 2023

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Relatively its looking weak as BW has very high MTC2 to MTC1 ratio. Charlie used to say that is because of capacity constraints in big NY/CA markets for MTC1. So matching only that without the constraints is not that great. Plus BW was on paid streaming as well !! On plus side the ratio would be lower as MTC3 was low back then. Let us see how things go today before projecting tomorrow.

MTC2 Fri you sent yesterday was much higher (around 25% in admits) than what I had for BW Fri Wed night (108k). And the run still takes a while right?

Edited February 16, 2023 by Menor Reborn

keysersoze123 · February 16, 2023

22 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

MTC2 Fri you sent yesterday was much higher (around 25% in admits) than what I had for BW Fri Wed night (108k). And the run still takes a while right?

Ok. Let us see how things go tomorrow.

Verrows · February 16, 2023

55 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

30 would be around 105 for 3 day? 18.5/30/32/24 is my rough guess.

If Saturday hits 32 I would think Sunday would be a little stronger than 24. Sunday's are always strong on holiday weekends but I notice Presidents'Day Sundays are particularly strong.

el sid · February 16, 2023

The Creed III: Early Access Screening tickets are on sale. Since a few hours I guess?

It had in 4 of my 7 theaters already sold 115 tickets. I think that's a really good start but let's see if that performance continues.

ZackM · February 16, 2023

12 hours ago, ZackM said:

Meh day...

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days

Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 119 692 470 4 26
Seats Added 11,079 72,557 51,785 516 2,841
Seats Sold 22,726 13,131 11,297 7,064 5,088

2/15/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 435 6,446 234,456 1,070,639 21.90%

% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 10 96 325 638

ATP
$17.12

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Comps
Black Panther: WF Thor: Love & Thunder Dr. Strange MoM
Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1 $18.8 $19.8 $18.8 $19.7 $16.4 $17.4
T-2 $18.9 $19.9 $19.2 $20.0 $16.1 $17.1
T-3 $19.3 $20.4 $19.6 $20.5 $16.4 $17.5
T-4 $19.8 $20.8 $19.6 $20.4 $16.6 $17.7
T-5 $20.1 $21.1 $19.6 $20.4 $16.8 $17.9
T-6 $20.4 $21.4 $19.7 $20.6 $16.8 $17.9
T-7 $20.7 $21.7 $19.9 $20.7 $16.9 $18.0
T-8 $20.9 $21.9 $20.0 $20.9 $17.0 $18.1
T-9 $21.2 $22.2 $20.1 $20.9 $17.1 $18.2
T-10 $21.0 $22.0 $19.8 $20.7 $16.9 $18.0
T-11 $21.1 $22.1 $20.0 $20.8 $16.8 $17.9
T-12 $21.2 $22.2 $20.2 $21.0 $16.8 $18.0
T-13 $21.3 $22.3 $20.3 $21.2 $16.8 $17.9
T-14 $21.5 $22.5 $20.7 $21.5 $16.7 $17.8
T-15 $21.7 $22.7 $20.7 $21.6 $16.6 $17.7
T-16 $21.8 $22.8 $20.9 $21.7 $16.5 $17.7
T-17 $21.8 $22.8 $21.0 $21.8 $16.5 $17.6
T-18 $21.8 $22.8 $21.2 $22.1 $16.7 $17.8

I'll be delayed in posting final presales numbers tomorrow, but the numbers themselves will be tracked at the normal time.

Final presales...

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days


	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	30	119	692	470	4
Seats Added	2,180	11,079	72,557	51,785	516
Seats Sold	20,310	22,726	13,131	11,297	7,064

2/16/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	6,476	254,766	1,072,819	23.75%

% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	14	104	357	707

ATP
$16.95

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Comps
	Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0	$18.4	$19.4	$18.1	$19.0	$16.0	$17.0
T-1	$18.8	$19.8	$18.8	$19.7	$16.4	$17.4
T-2	$18.9	$19.9	$19.2	$20.0	$16.1	$17.1
T-3	$19.3	$20.4	$19.6	$20.5	$16.4	$17.5
T-4	$19.8	$20.8	$19.6	$20.4	$16.6	$17.7
T-5	$20.1	$21.1	$19.6	$20.4	$16.8	$17.9
T-6	$20.4	$21.4	$19.7	$20.6	$16.8	$17.9
T-7	$20.7	$21.7	$19.9	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-8	$20.9	$21.9	$20.0	$20.9	$17.0	$18.1
T-9	$21.2	$22.2	$20.1	$20.9	$17.1	$18.2
T-10	$21.0	$22.0	$19.8	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-11	$21.1	$22.1	$20.0	$20.8	$16.8	$17.9
T-12	$21.2	$22.2	$20.2	$21.0	$16.8	$18.0
T-13	$21.3	$22.3	$20.3	$21.2	$16.8	$17.9
T-14	$21.5	$22.5	$20.7	$21.5	$16.7	$17.8
T-15	$21.7	$22.7	$20.7	$21.6	$16.6	$17.7
T-16	$21.8	$22.8	$20.9	$21.7	$16.5	$17.7
T-17	$21.8	$22.8	$21.0	$21.8	$16.5	$17.6
T-18	$21.8	$22.8	$21.2	$22.1	$16.7	$17.8

Ronin46 · February 16, 2023

23 minutes ago, Verrows said:

If Saturday hits 32 I would think Sunday would be a little stronger than 24. Sunday's are always strong on holiday weekends but I notice Presidents'Day Sundays are particularly strong.

I took it from Uncharted which did -24% and -40% for Sun/Mon

BP did -9/-33 in comparison. Maybe -20/-35?

el sid · February 16, 2023

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 967 (21 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 907 (28 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 251 (17 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 129 (12 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 337 (13 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.118 (21 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.571 (28 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 5.280.

Up 12.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Friday): TSS (8M true Friday) had 1.560 sold tickets = x3.38 = 27M but Ant-Man has no streaming competition so I guess still over 30M,

Morbius (11.6M) had 1.884 sold tickets = x2.8 = 32.5M,

Eternals (21.2M) had 4.090 sold tickets = x1.29 = 27.3M,
Thor: Love and Thunder (40.5M) had 6.946 sold tickets = 76% = 31M,
The Batman (39.4M) had 7.284 sold tickets = 72.5% = 28.9M
and finally SC (20.8M) had 3.740 sold tickets = x1.41 = 29.3M.

Inceptionzq · February 16, 2023

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

T-1 Thursday(417 showings): 17843(+1629)/50450 ATP: $15.59

0.765x Black Panther WF T-1 (21.42M)

0.816x Thor L&T T-1 (23.65M)

0.638x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (22.98M)

2.26x Eternals T-1 (21.44M)

T-2 Friday(652 showings): 18457(+2008)/78939 ATP: $15.34

0.605x Black Panther WF T-2 (34.03M)

0.905x Thor L&T T-2 (36.70M)

0.634x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (34.68M)

2.12x Eternals T-2 (45.20M)

T-3 Saturday(663 showings): 18217(+1964)/80005 ATP: $14.76

0.676x Black Panther WF T-3 (37.92M)

0.958x Thor L&T T-3 (40.33M)

0.602x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (34.77M)

2.20x Eternals T-3 (53.14M)

T-4 Sunday(616 showings): 9650(+1138)/75106 ATP: $14.19

0.593x Black Panther WF T-4 (24.28M)

0.834x Thor L&T T-4 (27.10M)

0.543x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (21.10M)

1.96x Eternals T-4 (32.03M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

T-0 Thursday(417 showings): 21191(+3348)/50450 ATP: $15.49

0.805x Black Panther WF T-0 (22.53M)

0.792x Thor L&T T-0 (22.97M)

0.654x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (23.56M)

2.19x Eternals T-0 (20.77M)

T-1 Friday(652 showings): 21113(+2656)/78939 ATP: $15.29

0.612x Black Panther WF T-1 (34.46M)

0.849x Thor L&T T-1 (34.41M)

0.648x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (35.45M)

2.02x Eternals T-1 (43.16M)

T-2 Saturday(663 showings): 20432(+2215)/80005 ATP: $14.70

0.901x Thor L&T T-2 (37.95M)

0.608x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (35.15M)

2.07x Eternals T-2 (49.84M)

T-3 Sunday(616 showings): 10986(+1336)/75106 ATP: $14.17

0.813x Thor L&T T-3 (26.42M)

0.537x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (20.87M)

1.93x Eternals T-3 (31.56M)

Inceptionzq · February 16, 2023

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex

T-1 Thursday(204 showings): 5269(+541)/49671

0.520x Thor L&T T-1 (15.08M)

0.340x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (12.24M)

1.80x Eternals T-1 (17.10M)

T-2 Friday(270 showings): 4614(+625)/71285

0.665x Thor L&T T-2 (26.96M)

0.384x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (21.03M)

1.57x Eternals T-2 (33.48M)

T-3 Saturday(282 showings): 3568(+522)/73155

0.905x Thor L&T T-3 (38.11M)

0.455x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (26.32M)

2.15x Eternals T-3 (51.84M)

T-4 Sunday(260 showings): 1005(+121)/67836

0.742x Thor L&T T-4 (24.12M)

0.458x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (17.81M)

2.36x Eternals T-4 (38.53M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex

T-0 Thursday(204 showings): 6663(+1394)/49671

0.458x Thor L&T T-0 (13.27M)

0.359x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (12.93M)

1.38x Eternals T-0 (13.08M)

T-1 Friday(270 showings): 5548(+934)/71285

0.623x Thor L&T T-1 (25.27M)

0.394x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (21.54M)

1.43x Eternals T-1 (30.53M)

T-2 Saturday(282 showings): 4220(+652)/73155

0.823x Thor L&T T-2 (34.67M)

0.455x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (26.29M)

1.96x Eternals T-2 (47.32M)

T-3 Sunday(260 showings): 1209(+204)/67836

0.688x Thor L&T T-3 (22.38M)

0.475x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (18.49M)

2.10x Eternals T-3 (34.22M)

Shawn Robbins · February 16, 2023

I would love/hate to see a real betting line in a real money market with serious cash flying around right now to see how tight the odds on AMATWQ crossing $100 million are. Gonna be a nailbiter if it happens. Wouldn't be surprised if Disney is happy to tout an opening over Guardians and Winter Soldier if it's not close enough to fudge to nine figures.

(And, honestly, that would still be a super good result for an Ant-Man three-quel coming four years post-Endgame and post-Phase 4.)

Legion Again · February 16, 2023

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I would love/hate to see a real betting line in a real money market with serious cash flying around right now to see how tight the odds on AMATWQ crossing $100 million are. Gonna be a nailbiter if it happens. Wouldn't be surprised if Disney is happy to tout an opening over Guardians and Winter Soldier if it's not close enough to fudge to nine figures.

(And, honestly, that would still be a super good result for an Ant-Man three-quel coming four years post-Endgame and post-Phase 4.)

There’s about $6k in volume for 4day 125M over on poly market right now (16% yes)

Inceptionzq · February 16, 2023

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1057 3513 30.09%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 914 3325 27.49%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
5711 428 35124 16.26% 15 228

AMCs sold 3427
Cinemarks sold 996
Regals sold 720
Harkins sold 568

0.773x Black Panther WF T-1 (21.64M)

0.631x Thor L&T T-1 (18.29M)

0.446x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (16.05M)

2.00x Eternals T-1 (18.97M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1210

3513

34.44%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1064

3325

32.00%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7188	1477	36557	19.66%	15	239

AMCs sold	4002
Cinemarks sold	1339
Regals sold	1019
Harkins sold	828

0.773x Black Panther WF T-0 (21.64M)

0.588x Thor L&T T-0 (17.04M)

0.468x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (16.84M)

1.61x Eternals T-0 (15.34M)

One thing to note is that Eternals started previews at 6PM, so it had some more time for the last minute sales before showings started and that will hurt comps a bit. Drafthouse is overperforming, Megaplex is underperforming. I'm gonna go with 17.5M but that'll probably be rounded up to 18M

filmlover · February 16, 2023

Ant-Man seems to have always had "ugly red-headed stepchild" status among popular MCU characters going back to the first movie (which was a hit eight years ago, no doubt, but hardly put up Earth-shattering business comparable to the surprise breakout of Guardians 1 the year before), so the opening for this movie doubling the $57M opening of that over the course of nearly a decade speaks to how powerful the MCU remains even if their recent movies aren't exactly smashing records.

keysersoze123 · February 16, 2023

6 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

There’s about $6k in volume for 4day 125M over on poly market right now (16% yes)

When were those bets placed. I hope not this week !!!

katnisscinnaplex · February 16, 2023

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Ant-Man 3 T-0 Jax 6 116 396 2,640 18,004 14.66%
Phx 7 114 461 2,841 17,045 16.67%
Ral 8 125 331 2,666 15,685 17.00%
Total 21 355 1,188 8,147 50,734 16.06%

Ant-Man 3 T-0 comps

- Black Widow - 1.407x (18.57m)

- Dr Strange 2 - .393x (14.147m)

- Thor 4 - .612x (17.74m)

- Eternals - 1.965x (18.667m)

- BP2 - .576x (16.13m)

I was hoping for a much better day, but it looks like the reviews are gonna hold it back. Should be under 19m preview; I'll go with 18.5m with one update to go.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	1-Hr	Jax	6	119	593	3,233	18,208	17.76%
		Phx	7	114	440	3,281	17,045	19.25%
		Ral	8	125	450	3,116	15,685	19.87%
	Total		21	358	1,483	9,630	50,938	18.91%

Ant-Man 3 T-1 hr comps

- Black Widow - 1.308x (17.266m)

- Dr Strange 2 - .417x (15.024m)

- Thor 4 - .588x (17.057m)

- Eternals - 1.793x (17.03m)

- BP2 - .545x (15.25m)

All CBM - 17.42m

All 3pm previews - 18.99m

All movies - 20.44m

Sigh... not a terrible day, but again not what I was hoping for. The only positive thing I can say is that it has a higher ATP than all of the other comps in my areas. As much as I want to keep my hopes up, I need to provide a prediction based on the data. That is telling me to expect a preview around 17m

keysersoze123 · February 16, 2023

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

One thing to note is that Eternals started previews at 6PM, so it had some more time for the last minute sales before showings started and that will hurt comps a bit. Drafthouse is overperforming, Megaplex is underperforming. I'm gonna go with 17.5M but that'll probably be rounded up to 18M

That is an interesting take. I would have that having a later previous start would hurt it as it will have fewer shows. :-)

Anyway thanks for tracking so many different chains. Any chance of getting the down under tracking working again?

Legion Again · February 16, 2023

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

When were those bets placed. I hope not this week !!!

Overall since it opened I guess, over the past 10 days or so? Does seem pretty low to me

keysersoze123 · February 16, 2023

1 minute ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Overall since it opened I guess, over the past 10 days or so? Does seem pretty low to me

I guess those folks keep an eye on this thread and saw the trend going down big time especially post reactions :-)

I agree with @Shawn that 100m will be a nail biter. If its close Disney will report for sure. No one remembers actuals. Its the estimates that matter especially in mainstream media.

upriser7 · February 16, 2023

Do we know how much % of PLF shows is Avatar2 going to lose this weekend ?

Total Showings Added Today	16
Total Seats Added Today	744
Total Seats Sold Today	979

	%	Sold T-1	Total Sold	Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold	Final Sold	% of Final	Comp
ET	185.23	739	4672	0/136	13796/18468	25.30%	6409	135.03%	17.60m
MoM	47.38	1695	18267	0/404	28068/46335	39.42%	21117	40.98%	17.06m
L&T	64.03	2246	13516	0/312	25975/39491	34.23%	16962	51.02%	18.57m
BP2	63.53	1695	13622	2/375	29516/43138	31.58%	16800	51.51%	17.79m

AMCs sold	3427
Cinemarks sold	996
Regals sold	720
Harkins sold	568

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