The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

the only explanation is @Porthos doing it dirty. gotta lobby Porthos to give higher numbers.

 

         

          Live Look at me collecting

     my Disney Bucks from The Mouse

after being told what to report here at BOT

Edited February 18, 2023 by Porthos

[Eric Prime]

On 2/17/2023 at 12:50 AM, Eric the Conqueror said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	78	138	15904	0.87%

 

Comp - T-28

0.115x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.07M)

 

Comp - First Day of Sales

0.411x of Black Adam (3.12M)

 

None of my planned comps go out this far, so...here's this flimsy one I guess.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	153	16243	0.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp - T-27

0.188x of Black Widow (2.48M)

0.125x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.24M)

0.051x of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (886K)

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

All the AM3/Shazam 2 talk last night made me forget to post this last night. IS data taken from last night at the same time as I ususally take it, so no worries there.  But might as well post it now for record keeping:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	7334	7735	401	5.18%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	186
Total Seats Sold Today	23

 

T-21  Comp

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	134.11		49	299		0/73	10966/11265	2.65%		3951	10.15%		8.38m
Nope	165.02		11	243		0/84	13461/13704	1.77%		3822	10.49%		10.56m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:         81/2624  [3.09% sold]
Matinee:       37/687  [5.39% | 9.23% of all tickets sold]
3D:            159/2551  [6.23% | 39.65% of all tickets sold]

 

(again this is all Thursday data, not early Fri)

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	7310	7735	425	5.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

24

 

T-20  Comp

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	128.01		33	332		0/74	11116/11448	2.90%		3951	10.76%		8.00m
Nope	171.37		5	248		0/84	13443/13691	1.81%		3822	11.12%		10.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:        80/2624  [3.05% sold]
Matinee:       30/687 [4.37% | 7.06% of all tickets sold]
3D:            163/2551 [6.39% | 38.35% of all tickets sold]

[charlie Jatinder]

ok, so previews does infact look like $17.5M. Problem is our two biggest data points i.e. MTC 1 & 2 actuals are below tracked. This is the problem only being faced by MCU films in last 2 years.

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Problem is our two biggest data points i.e. MTC 1 & 2 actuals are below tracked.

Blocked seats? Atp calculation?

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Blocked seats? Atp calculation?

blocked seat are there in mtc 2 but I do adjust those.

MTC1 there is no issue with blocked, even if it did, why only MCU. everything else, tracked is 90-95% of actuals. here's its more than actuals.

Edited February 18, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[M37]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

blocked seat are there in mtc 2 but I do adjust those.

MTC1 there is no issue with blocked, even if it did, why only MCU.

Perhaps because MCU is the only fan heavy, high grossing franchise left? They are event release, people booking tickets earlier, so fewer post-showtime late sales. Plus more likely to bring in frequent movie-goers and so higher share of Stubs/subs lowering the ATP. Unlike Avatar, JWD, TGM, Venom, Minions, which all brought causal viewers of some kind, paying full price and often buying last minute 

 

Most of the lower level releases that may fall into those same traps aren’t MTC tracked to such specificity, so it makes MCU look like an outlier

Edited February 18, 2023 by M37

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

Perhaps because MCU is the only fan heavy, high grossing franchise left? They are event release, people booking tickets earlier, so fewer post-showtime late sales. Plus more likely to bring in frequent movie-goers and so higher share of Stubs/subs lowering the ATP. Unlike Avatar, JWD, TGM, Venom, Minions, which all brought causal viewers of some kind, paying full price and often buying last minute 

 

Most of the lower level releases that may fall into those same traps aren’t MTC tracked to such specificity, so it makes MCU look like an outlier

Late sales won't affect MTC data which is collected when all showtimes are done. Subscribers, though, may indeed be the culprit. It also makes sense, since the only MCU movie recently that didn't have this issue was BPWF, which almost certainly had a much less frequent theatergoing base. 

Edited February 18, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[M37]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

Late sales won't affect MTC data which is collected when all showtimes are done. Subscribers, though, may indeed be the culprit. 

Wait, y’all are pulling sales well after showtime? I didn’t think those links were active/accessible after a certain time, always assumed it was an up-to-showtime count 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Late sales won't affect MTC data which is collected when all showtimes are done. Subscribers, though, may indeed be the culprit. It also makes sense, since the only MCU movie recently that didn't have this issue was BPWF, which almost certainly had a much less frequent theatergoing base. 

I dont think subscribers affects gross, if it did studios wont allow them atleast for first few weeks.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Wait, y’all are pulling sales well after showtime? I didn’t think those links were active/accessible after a certain time, always assumed it was an up-to-showtime count 

It depends on the chain. Marcus closes them after showtimes are done, for example, while Harkins doesn't. We're lucky that the tracked MTCs keep them active. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I dont think subscribers affects gross, if it did studios wont allow them atleast for first few weeks.

I don't know how it works, but it's an explanation that fits very well with the overshoot being there for Strange 2, Thor 4, and Quantumania, but not for Wakanda Forever. 

Edited February 18, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[M37]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I dont think subscribers affects gross, if it did studios wont allow them atleast for first few weeks.

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't know how it works, but it's an explanation that fits very well with the error being for Strange 2, Thor 4, Quantumania -- and not for Wakanda Forever. 

 

Typically (at least in before times, it may have changed, esp with rise of subs), studios permit a certain % of tickets to be free (passes) for new releases, and anything above that the exhibitor pays for the ticket. But subs are probably going for the highest price/PLF tickets, and if there’s a surcharge, it doesn’t count as “free”, it’s just a $5 IMAX ticket 

 

Also, frequent moviegoers are more likely to be discount hunters generally, even if not subscribers, which can drag down actual ATP. Generally, the later someone buys a ticket, the more likely they are to be paying full adult price 

 

 

[ZackM]

7 hours ago, M37 said:

Wait, y’all are pulling sales well after showtime? I didn’t think those links were active/accessible after a certain time, always assumed it was an up-to-showtime count 

I can get Alpha data up until midnight in each time zone, which is why my final day tracking is always broken down by time zone.

[keysersoze123]

Its possible some seats are blocked as sold but were in fact not sold. Otherwise it does not make sense. There are obvious discounts like child, senior and military discounts. but they cannot make that big a difference as seen here. Subscriber list should not impact BO gross. Theater chains have to eat the difference. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its possible some seats are blocked as sold but were in fact not sold. Otherwise it does not make sense. There are obvious discounts like child, senior and military discounts. but they cannot make that big a difference as seen here. Subscriber list should not impact BO gross. Theater chains have to eat the difference. 

Blocked should impact every movie equally though. They wouldn't block seats for DS2, Thor 4, or Ant-Man and not for BP2, Avatar 2, etc

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	300	12178	2.46%

 

Comp - T-13

0.382x of F9 (2.71M)

0.513x of No Time to Die (3.23M)

0.651x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2.93M)

0.606x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (3.64M)

0.901x of Nope (5.77M)

0.428x of Black Adam (3.25M)

0.153x of Avatar 2 (2.61M)

 

Didn't really know what to throw in here for comps, so it's kind of a hodgepodge of older franchise/nostalgia plays, and some movies that skewed more towards Black audiences like F9 and Black Adam and Nope (wanted to do Wakanda Forever, and it said like 1.15M and like...nah, that ain't it lol).

 

I will say it's interesting to see 7PM previews like in the good ol' days. Nice for me in terms of tracking it, and I'm assuming this leads to a bigger weekend IM than what we usually get. (BTW, I know there's some Early Access shows, but I don't think they're super widespread or anything)

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	384	13568	2.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 84

 

Comp - T-12

0.454x of F9 (3.22M)

0.610x of No Time to Die (3.85M)

0.793x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (3.57M)

0.726x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (4.35M)

1.103x of Nope (7.06M)

0.535x of Black Adam (4.06M)

0.190x of Avatar 2 (3.24M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	554	8200	6.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp - T-20

2.328x of Scream (8.15M)

2.225x of Nope (14.24M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	557	8200	6.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp - T-19

2.340x of Scream (8.19M)

2.184x of Nope (13.98M)

 

...don't know what happened here lol

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	153	16243	0.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp - T-27

0.188x of Black Widow (2.48M)

0.125x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.24M)

0.051x of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (886K)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	163	16243	1.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp - T-26

0.172x of Black Widow (2.27M)

0.130x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.34M)

0.052x of Ant-Man 3 (913K)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	7310	7735	425	5.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

24

 

T-20  Comp

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	128.01		33	332		0/74	11116/11448	2.90%		3951	10.76%		8.00m
Nope	171.37		5	248		0/84	13443/13691	1.81%		3822	11.12%		10.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:        80/2624  [3.05% sold]
Matinee:       30/687 [4.37% | 7.06% of all tickets sold]
3D:            163/2551 [6.39% | 38.35% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	7269	7735	466	6.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-19  Comp

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	137.06		8	340		0/74	11108/11448	2.97%		3951	11.79%		8.57m
Nope	184.19		5	253		0/84	13445/13698	1.85%		3822	12.19%		11.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:        92/2624  [3.51% sold]
Matinee:      42/687  [6.11% | 9.01% of all tickets sold]
3D:           184/2551  [7.21% | 39.48% of all tickets sold]