The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[interiorgatordecorator]

37 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

its not a traditional kids animated movie, its like endgame for video game players that happens to have kids appeal

 

yeah, also think its ceiling is something like 3x legs from the 5-day because of that (id say something like 2.75 is likely)

Edited April 5, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[DisposedData]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

....yes. Absolutely yes. This is the same target demo as Minions.

No it is not

[Flamengo81]

35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I definitely dont buy Majors as a reason for bad Guardians presale start. I think audience is getting jaded about SH movies. We have so many of them and ultimately audience will look for something else. Still MCU has the biggest fan base and still make big bucks. I think DC is in trouble. May be Batman movie once in 3 years will be good and I think Superman legacy unless its bad would do ok. But I think a blue beetle is going to find it difficult for sure. 

Like I always say, Batman will always do business for DC regardless, it's the same for Spider-Man in Marvel. The others though? I think the situation is very different. With a string of great movies the genre can rebound I think and some movies can still achieve gangbusters numbers, but the era of anything superhero making a lot of money is over.

[keysersoze123]

Air Wednesday MTC1 - 23148/249941 304924.32 2123 shows

 

it should hopefully do around 60K with good walkups today. Should be good for 3m OD. 

[Flamengo81]

3 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

No it is not

It most definitely is. With the big exception that it has a bigger appeal with adults. But this is a kids movie and that is pretty obvious.

[katnisscinnaplex]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Awesome to see you back. Can you do a showtime check as well for this week and GoTG3 release week. 

I've got time for Mario today - about to head back out of town.

 

Mario US showtime sample

Wednesday - 43,772 (3,259 TC) (6,525 3D), (1,536 IMAX)

Thursday - 43,627 (3,277 TC) (6,509 3D), (1,556 IMAX)

Fri-Sun - 147,070 (3,292 TC) (21,699 3D), (5,248 IMAX)

 

Should get a bunch more added today for the weekend.  

 

Comps taken on Wednesday

Strange World (5-Day) - 105,995 (3,347 TC)

Puss in Boots (5-Day) - 114,888 (3,436 TC)

 

3-day weekend comps (w/o previews) taken on Friday

 - Lightyear - 132,571 (3,392)

 - Minions 2 - 127,925 (3,602)

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/2/2023 at 3:19 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

 

AIR

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
52	253	5161	4.9%

 

Comps:

SCREAM 6 : (0.1893x) $1.07M previews

 

Maybe $1.5-$2M in previews $10-$11M for the weekend 

 

 

 

AIR

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
56	612	5799	10.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 12:00pm EST}

*4 New Showings Added

*359 Sold Since T-3

 

Comp:

D&D (0.493x) $2M Previews 

 

$2M previews

 

high teens OW ($17M-$18M) with strong walkups 

[Mickiland16]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol3 MTC2 previews(T-29) - 73243/1146459 1329830.03 7005 shows

 

No 2 ways about this number. Its terrible. Way worse than Ant 3. At this point I can see even 100m not locked yet(Friday sales are equally awful if you comp with big MCU movies). As I said yesterday its not about marketing. This movie even got a Super Bowl trailer and awareness is not an issue. Front page of every major ticketing site has this shown prominently. There is definite sign of the big F word.

 

That said as someone said if this were not an MCU mega sequel we would be doing cartwheels at these numbers. But these numbers do have a context and its not that Guardians will start to behave like a Jurassic movie or anything !!! 

 

It also sold 2498/17472 115955.00 58 shows for wednesday Imax marathon. Its not going to make a big difference but that ticket price is Yuge. 

I don't want this to fail but I also like some drama so...who's gonna post this on the box office subreddit?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Mickiland16 said:

I don't want this to fail but I also like some drama so...who's gonna post this on the box office subreddit?

Please dont.

[dobrevv]

Just now, Mickiland16 said:

I don't want this to fail but I also like some drama so...who's gonna post this on the box office subreddit?

antman,shazam and mario reviews yesterday wasnt enough drama for you

[XXR vs XXR]

I’m glad Mario is blowing up. Gives the forum something good to discuss. We don’t have to live through another Detective Pikachu.

 

I still think GOTG3 has a shot at $140M+ but yes the early numbers do unfortunately point in the wrong direction. 
 

First SW let me down; now the MCU aura has cracked like Caps shield against Thanos. 
 

[Skim Beeble]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

high teens OW ($17M-$18M) with strong walkups 

for the 3-day or 5-day

[VanillaSkies]

Mario is blowing up in wall-ups this afternoon at the Cineplex’s around me in Ottawa. Can’t remember the last Wednesday opener like this. Definitely not surprised by these 30+ predictions for today.

[DAJK]

17 minutes ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

I’m glad Mario is blowing up. Gives the forum something good to discuss. We don’t have to live through another Detective Pikachu.

 

I still think GOTG3 has a shot at $140M+ but yes the early numbers do unfortunately point in the wrong direction. 
 

First SW let me down; now the MCU aura has cracked like Caps shield against Thanos. 
 

Oh god don't even get me started on Detective Pikachu. I couldn't tell where the seriousness stopped and the trolling started, but I was 100% being gaslit by this forum for not thinking that Pikachu was going to have a 300M OW (OD?).

[Porthos]

Put me in the camp of Mario blowing the hell up OBVIOUSLY affecting GOTG3's start.

 

The MCU is a 4-quad property.  BY DEFINITION that means families are a part of the base. And even when one exits definitional terms, families being a strong pillar of the MCU in particular is well known and I thought taken as a damn near given.  Would we argue that families aren't a strong pillar of something like the Jurassic World franchise or the Star Wars films?  No, I don't think we would.

 

If there is a film which is blowing past all expectations, it's gonna drain at least a little money from families "movie going budget".  It's a phenomenon we've seen time and time and time again.  Just, usually, it's the MCU which is the 800 pound gorilla.

 

Now because the audiences don't overlap 1:1, it's only part of the reason for the tepid start of GOTG3's sales.  Whole lotta other factors going on as well.  And, as said, things can still change (though they can also stay on track).

 

But, c'mon now.  Mario's start is gonna affect a movie property like the MCU much much more than a property like, oh say, the John Wick franchise or a horror movie or something like that.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

If there is a film which is blowing past all expectations, it's gonna drain at least a little money from families "movie going budget".  It's a phenomenon we've seen time and time and time again.  Just, usually, it's the MCU which is the 800 pound gorilla.

 

Notwithstanding what I just said, I do think there might be a bit of a halo effect with Mario today and Friday, as while the overall pool of interest will be divided there might well be some people who say, "Well, buying my Mario Bros ticket today, might as well get my GOTG tickets as well".  Films getting something of a boost on Major Theater Event days is something else I personally have seen over and over and over again.  

 

But these aren't contradictory points.  Just one is focusing on the macro (overall start and trajectory) and one the micro (day to day variations/blips).

 

How present this might be given we're still in the initial interest phase of GOTG3's start is more up in the air, however.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

but do people still trust those reactions?

just yesterday I saw a good amount of people complain that early reactions had made them think Mario was going to be certified fresh, even in atman 3 you have to know how to interpret reactions to know it was going rotten; the reviews, which will only come out 2 days before, come way too late to dramatically changes things

 

 

Tweets are less trustworthy that RT's critic rating.

 

So if critics can review early it could help build hype for GotG3.

[GOGODanca]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

Tweets are less trustworthy that RT's critic rating.

 

So if critics can review early it could help build hype for GotG3.

Marvel won't let up embargo until 3 days before release even if the movie is great (NWH and BPWF)

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

AIR

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
56	612	5799	10.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 12:00pm EST}

*4 New Showings Added

*359 Sold Since T-3

 

Comp:

D&D (0.493x) $2M Previews 

 

$2M previews

 

high teens OW ($17M-$18M) with strong walkups 

D&D isn't the best comparison.

[dobrevv]

4 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Marvel won't let up embargo until 3 days before release even if the movie is great (NWH and BPWF)

yeah but their social reactions are like 1-2 week earlier than embargo