The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Starphanluke]

17 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The OW will be fine, i worry about the legs tho, with such a big opening this is a strong contender for +400M DOM 

 

Let´s hope the audiences will like because the reviews are very bad, 48 on MC now 

 

Illumination movies usually have good audience reception tho even with bad reviews so there´s hope

As someone who has seen it, I really do think audience reception will be great. I'm not worried about legs at all.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Flamengo81]

Minions has a 55% Critics and 49% audience in RT. That movie received an A CS and made 1.1B worldwide with solid legs. Despicable Me 3 had a similar pattern. Illumination has proved time and time again that all that matters is the reception of the kids going to see the movies.

[froztking]

6 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

Minions has a 55% Critics and 49% audience in RT. That movie received an A CS and made 1.1B worldwide with solid legs. Despicable Me 3 had a similar pattern. Illumination has proved time and time again that all that matters is the reception of the kids going to see the movies.

true + there aren't many options for families and kids for a month ! this will do well ! 

[Tinalera]

Mario Brothers

Thurs April 6 Fri April 7 (t-3)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	3	21	483	4135	4618	0.1045
	Fri	3	24	1410	3566	4976	0.2833
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	37	439	6961	7400	0.0593
	Fri	4	26	1121	4333	5454	0.2055

 

 

Heres an Antman comp for same time 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	4	29	1414	4448	5862	0.2412
	Fri	3	25	1325	3552	4877	0.2716
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	30	735	5992	6327	0.1161
	Fri	4	30	640	5935	6575	0.0973

 

 

Its Hero vs family, but it gives on an idea of what type of numbers its doing in comparison

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Reviews for Mario are extremelly average and even bad in some outlets [as expected tbh], let´s hope it won´t have a negative impact 

OW it won't but legs will suffer a bit

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Megaplex

 

T-2 Wednesday(225 showings): 11067(+3055)/61932

 

T-3 Thursday(224 showings): 3706(+932)/62137

1.69x Antman 3 Thurs+Fri (78.69M)*

1.02x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (70.77M)*

 

T-4 Friday(228 showings): 5200(+1100)/62779

1.46x Antman 3 T-4 (42.35M)

1.06x Thor L&T T-4 (42.98M)

 

T-5 Saturday(223 showings): 4342(+555)/62869

1.61x Antman 3 T-5 (54.48M)

1.51x Thor L&T T-5 (63.77M)

 

The Spring Break effect is in full swing

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

Mario Megaplex

 

T-1 Wednesday(257 showings): 15237(+4170)/68842

 

T-2 Thursday(251 showings): 5053(+1347)/67991

2.05x Antman 3 Thurs+Fri (95.32M)*

1.19x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (82.65M)*

0.738x Doctor Strange MoM Thurs+Fri (66.94M)*

 

T-3 Friday(261 showings): 6702(+1502)/69373

1.68x Antman 3 T-3 (48.61M)

1.18x Thor L&T T-3 (47.74M)

0.643x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (35.19M)

 

T-4 Saturday(255 showings): 5322(+980)/68741

1.75x Antman 3 T-4 (59.24M)

1.61x Thor L&T T-4 (67.93M)

0.783x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (45.24M)

 

Had to pull out the Doctor Strange comps because Mario is in a different league than Ant-Man and Thor at Megaplex. Drafthouse is giving me problems for Mario, so no numbers there. Hopefully I can get some numbers for it later tonight or tomorrow morning

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

355

4344

8.17%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

214

3222

6.64%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 11 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1079	N/A	34518	3.13%	14	224

 

AMCs sold	878
Cinemarks sold	83
Regals sold	50
Harkins sold	68

 

0.786x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (13.76M)

0.613x Black Panther 2 first 11.5 hours (17.18M)

0.424x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (12.30M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

426

4344

9.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

262

3222

8.13%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1398	319	34518	4.05%	14	224

 

AMCs sold	1117
Cinemarks sold	125
Regals sold	67
Harkins sold	89

 

0.826x Ant-Man 3 T-30 (14.44M)

0.656x Black Panther WF Day 2 (18.37M)

0.435x Thor L&T Day 2 (12.61M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Megaplex

 

T-31 Thursday(107 showings): 917/30240

0.894x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (15.64M)

0.449x Thor L&T fist 8.5 hours (13.02M)

 

T-32 Friday(168 showings): 416/48100

1.14x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (33.06M)

0.489x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (19.82M)

 

T-33 Saturday(172 showings): 299/48306

0.877x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (29.73M)

0.854x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (35.97M)

 

T-34 Sunday(169 showings): 79/47679

1.34x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (33.51M)

0.868x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (28.21M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Megaplex

 

T-30 Thursday(107 showings): 1136(+219)/30240

0.883x Ant-Man 3 T-30(15.46M)

0.416x Thor L&T Day 2 (12.06M)

 

T-31 Friday(172 showings): 572(+156)/49844

1.13x Ant-Man 3 T-31 (32.57M)

0.453x Thor L&T Day 2 (18.36M)

 

T-32 Saturday(173 showings): 425(+126)/48826

0.957x Ant-Man 3 T-32 (32.45M)

0.737x Thor L&T Day 2 (31.02M)

 

T-33 Sunday(172 showings): 101(+22)/49209

0.894x Ant-Man 3 T-33 (23.04M)

0.574x Thor L&T Day 2 (18.65M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-31 Thursday(229 showings): 4981/33618 ATP: $15.85

1.38x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (24.19M)

0.778x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (21.80M)

0.693x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (20.09M)

 

T-32 Friday(337 showings): 2938/50022 ATP: $15.87

1.60x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (46.37M)

0.598x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (33.69M)

0.638x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (25.85M)

 

T-33 Saturday(349 showings): 3276/51794 ATP: $15.02

2.13x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (72.26M)

0.638x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (35.80M)

0.848x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (35.71M)

 

T-34 Sunday(323 showings): 1285/47784 ATP: $14.57

2.95x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (76.13M)

0.994x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (40.67M)

0.735x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (23.89M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-30 Thursday(229 showings): 5583(+602)/33618 ATP: $15.85

0.956x Ant-Man 3 T-30 (16.73M)

0.714x Black Panther WF Day 2 (19.99M)

0.649x Thor L&T Day 2 (18.82M)

 

T-31 Friday(337 showings): 3577(+639)/50022 ATP: $15.91

0.974x Ant-Man 3 T-31 (28.19M)

0.555x Black Panther WF Day 2 (31.22M)

0.599x Thor L&T Day 2 (24.31M)

 

T-32 Saturday(349 showings): 3914(+638)/51794 ATP: $15.08

1.17x Ant-Man 3 T-32 (39.68M)

0.590x Black Panther WF Day 2 (33.10M)

0.757x Thor L&T Day 2 (31.88M)

 

T-33 Sunday(323 showings): 1693(+408)/47784 ATP: $14.57

1.56x Ant-Man 3 T-33 (40.11M)

0.805x Black Panther WF Day 2 (32.93M)

0.676x Thor L&T Day 2 (21.98M)

[cooldude97]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

OW it won't but legs will suffer a bit

CinemaScore and WOM are more important for legs. 

 

Illuminations batting average for CinemaScore is usually A to A-

[Blaze Heatnix]

No Illumination movie had a CinemaScore lower than A-

 

This is Mario we're talking about. It'll get a great CinemaScore, despite bad critic reviews.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Honestly, 55% on rotten ain't as tragic as many try to sound like, it is not totally impossible that it could climb to 60%. Illumination had worse received movies than that doing great legs.

[misterpepp]

Polite Society on sale Thursday, The Covenant on sale Friday.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

Mario Previews

MTC1 - 6272/35512 136467.66 181 shows

MTC2 -  6116/28190 88695.50 200 shows

 

Wednesday

MTC1 - 189688/1214216 2955150.16 7098 shows +40704

MTC2 - 146982/913762 1697345.79 5735 shows // run started this morning

 

MTC1 wednesday increased more than what I thought. Another huge increase. Looking like ~270k PS end !!!

Mario Midnights final

MTC1 - 10927/37746 227234.69 195 shows

MTC2 - 11309/30143 160707.50 213 shows

 

MTC1 Wed - 266574/1331022 4061248.68 8067 shows +76886

MTC2 Wed - 191152/1026605 2178567.28 6747 shows // this run started in the morning and so this is not T-1

 

Midnights must be around ~750k. At last the wedensday presale missed my270K target :-) Still crazy strong and will be around 280ish by the time shows start. Let us see where the walkups take us. if I have to guess its $30m OD. Thursday will drop big and then huge jump on Friday and flatish on sat and big drop on Easter. Around 150m 5-day I think. 

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Drafthouse

 

T-30 Thursday(229 showings): 5583(+602)/33618 ATP: $15.85

0.956x Ant-Man 3 T-30 (16.73M)

0.714x Black Panther WF Day 2 (19.99M)

0.649x Thor L&T Day 2 (18.82M)

 

T-31 Friday(337 showings): 3577(+639)/50022 ATP: $15.91

0.974x Ant-Man 3 T-31 (28.19M)

0.555x Black Panther WF Day 2 (31.22M)

0.599x Thor L&T Day 2 (24.31M)

 

T-32 Saturday(349 showings): 3914(+638)/51794 ATP: $15.08

1.17x Ant-Man 3 T-32 (39.68M)

0.590x Black Panther WF Day 2 (33.10M)

0.757x Thor L&T Day 2 (31.88M)

 

T-33 Sunday(323 showings): 1693(+408)/47784 ATP: $14.57

1.56x Ant-Man 3 T-33 (40.11M)

0.805x Black Panther WF Day 2 (32.93M)

0.676x Thor L&T Day 2 (21.98M)

Why did the comps drop so dramatically at drafthouse. Was D2 that much weaker compared to other MCU flicks. 

[Inceptionzq]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why did the comps drop so dramatically at drafthouse. Was D2 that much weaker compared to other MCU flicks. 

The Ant-Man drop is mostly because the tickets for that dropped at night, and the Drafthouse audience tends to not buy tickets super late at night. But for Black Panther and Thor, yeah, just weaker.

[interiorgatordecorator]

will we get Tuesday midnight numbers? or are those technically part of wed?

[DAJK]

Just for context, an interesting note from one of the bigger theater that I track (that has IMAX, DBOX, all sorts of PLF screens).

 

Minions 2 opened to 3394 admissions over opening weekend (including Thursday, which since it was Canada day and shows started at 2PM essentially made it a 4-day weekend). 

 

Minions 1 opened to 4821 admissions.

 

Mario is already at 1302 admissions presold going INTO Wednesday. For comparison, Air is at 16, and John Wick 4 was at 642 24 hours before first show.

[thajdikt]

5 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

will we get Tuesday midnight numbers? or are those technically part of wed?

will probably just be reported as apart of Wed