The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X

MTC1 previews (T-7) - 40594/530449 733205.04 2624 shows +2098

MTC2 previews - 29529/552988 450003.53 3437 shows

 

MTC2 started day time yesterday and so will not call it T-7. Its numbers are ahead of T-5 of F9 at MTC1 and should have overtaken at MTC2 as well. So previews should be slightly ahead of last one. 

 

Yeah it's around 20% ahead at MTC2, better than it looks since that was back when MTC3 was still underperforming. Although I don't expect this one to have as much of a final surge as the last given that it's a normal weekday rather than summer.

[PrinceRico]

43 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I mean, it's likely gonna come in under Bumblebee's 127M DOM. Potentially under Bumblebee's 465M WW too... Wouldn't that have paid more of a price? Ya know, releasing like a year or so after the Transformers 5... That's 2018 movie ticket prices too. I imagine Bumblebee's closer to 140M DOM with today's ticket prices. Or, for whatever reason, you think this one is likely to pay the price more so than the one released directly after them? Eager to hear the reasoning here...

Bumblebee came out December 21 and opened to 21 million. It was save Christmas legs. This one does not have the luxury. Had it opened in June to 21 million then it would have made 70 tops. Bumblebee is the only Transformers film that didn’t open in June. Age of Extinction opened to 100 in June. Age of Extinction was able to make 1 billion thanks to china but its WOM killed the box office for The Last knight. The Last Knight opened to 44 million in June and its WOM pretty much killed the franchise. So yes audiences may have accepted Bayformers at first but they definitely rejected it by the end and some Rise of the Beast is the first truly Transformers film since then it will pay the price. However as long as it is good it can start to rebuild some good will

Edited May 12, 2023 by PrinceRico

[JWR]

Those Transformers are rough. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Tinalera]

Fast X 

Thurs May 18 Fri May 19 (T-7)

Nova Scotia, New Brunswick Ontario

 

NS		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	29	383	6382	6765	0.0566
	Fri	4	28	233	5753	5986	0.0389
NB		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	12	42	2674	2716	0.0154
	Fri	4	11	44	2060	2104	0.0209
NFLD	Thurs	1	11	62	1802	1864	0.0344
	Fri	1	4	62	956	1023	0.0606

 

Antman (Disclosure due to slight wonkyness These numbers were taken T-5 for east coast, but East doesn't change alot in 2 days-but disclosure nonetheless)

 

Nova Sc	Thurs	4	27	597	5675	6272	0.0951
	fri	4	25	454	5624	6078	0.0746
New B	Thurs	3	12	216	2368	2584	0.0835
	fri	3	14	172	2804	2976	0.0577
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	13	319	2208	2527	0.1262
	fri	1	9	300	1542	1842	0.1628

 

GOTG 3

t-7	NS		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
		Thurs	4	29	383	6382	6765	0.0566
		Fri	4	28	233	5753	5986	0.0389
	NB		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
		Thurs	3	16	173	3549	3722	0.0464
		Fri	4	21	103	3581	3684	0.0279
	NFLD	Thurs	1	6	140	1031	1171	0.1357
		Fri	1	5	51	1088	1145	0.0445

 

	NS T	NS F	NB T	NB F	NFLD T	NFLD F
Fast X	6765	5986	2716	2104	1864	1023
Antman	6272	6078	2584	2976	2527	1842
diff	493	-92	132	-872	-663	-819
Fast X	6765	5986	2716	2104	1864	1023
GOTG 3	6765	5986	3722	3684	1171	1145
diff	0	0	-1006	-1580	693	-122

[Eric is Anxious]

Quorum Updates

About My Father T-15: 18.27% Awareness, 4.93 Interest

The Machine T-15: 17.82%, 4.92

You Hurt My Feelings T-15: 13.91%, 4.47

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-29: 48.19%, 6.2

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One T-62: 35.06%, 5.83

The Nun 2 T-120: 29.78%, 5.18

 

Book Club: The Next Chapter T-1: 32.46% Awareness, 4.61 Interest

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 21% chance of 10M

Sequel Awareness: 67% chance of 10M

Sequel Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Hypnotic T-1: 23.36% Awareness, 5.65 Interest

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 67% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

The Blackening T-36: 20.22% Awareness, 5.28 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M

 

Insidious: The Red Door T-57: 37.83% Awareness, 5.67 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 93% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

T-60 Interest: 77% chance of 10M, 65% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 75% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

[SpiderByte]

Uh oh.

[GOGODanca]

 

[Tinalera]

30 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Uh oh.

I admit Im curious as to what effect this has on potential future sales for part 1-do people get more excited, or do they....well not get excited. 

[GOGODanca]

6 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

I admit Im curious as to what effect this has on potential future sales for part 1-do people get more excited, or do they....well not get excited. 

if they knock it out the park with part 1 and 2 then the last part could see a big increase but i doubt people are gonna love the first 2 parts and its just gonna be diminishing returns from this point forward

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

T-21

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	2544	25449	9.9%

*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

123

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.45

 

 

COMPS

T-21

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.542x) ~$9.8M THUR

 

Strong pace continues 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	2617	25449	10.3%

*Numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

73

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.45

 

 

COMPS

T-20

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.548x) ~$9.9M THUR

 

Its outpacing pretty much every upcoming blockbuster 

Edited May 12, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

!EDIT: I found a script error which skipped over an entire chain so here are the updated first 24 hours numbers!

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY incl EA 

 

T-27 *First 24 hours

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
99	809	19578	4.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

ATP: $14.90

 

 

COMPS

T-27

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.202x) ~$3.6M THUR

 

 

Little Mermaid

(0.525x)

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY incl EA 

 

T-27

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
99	835	19578	4.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.90

 

Could be worse I guess. At least its not selling in the single digits like Fast X was 

 

 

COMPS

T-27

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.208x) ~$3.75M THUR 

 

Bumblebee IM ~$28.5M OW

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/11/2023 at 4:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

T-7

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1776	28556	6.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:30PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

73

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.62

 

 

COMPS

T-7

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.284x) ~$5.1M THUR

 

Pace is okay. Still waiting for the final push

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1826	28556	6.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

50

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.62

 

COMPS

T-6

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.262x) ~$4.6M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$45.5M OW)

JOHN WICK 4

(1.097x) ~$9.8M THUR

If it follows F9 IM (~$97M OW)

 

So if it falls somewhere in between the two, I would say ~$71M as of rn

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Uh oh.

Lol and now they’ve just announced the Rock is in Fast X. 
 

They’ve seen the tracking and hit the big red panic button. 

[PrinceRico]

Seems like Fast X is tracking where F9 was.

[Krissykins]

9 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Seems like Fast X is tracking where F9 was.

Universal will be hoping it pulls ahead very quickly then so that it doesn’t end up opening under F9. 

[SpiderByte]

35 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Lol and now they’ve just announced the Rock is in Fast X. 
 

They’ve seen the tracking and hit the big red panic button. 

They must have made the decision extremely recently, but I dont see why they would see that and think it means the momentum is there for a twelfth movie. Maybe they're more optimistic internationally?

[Krissykins]

7 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

They must have made the decision extremely recently, but I dont see why they would see that and think it means the momentum is there for a twelfth movie. Maybe they're more optimistic internationally?

I just assumed it was an attempt to get audiences thinking this the first in a big three part finale or something. 
 

I don’t watch these films so I have no idea lol. 

[SpiderByte]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I just assumed it was an attempt to get audiences thinking this the first in a big three part finale or something. 
 

I don’t watch these films so I have no idea lol. 

Well it was already a multi part finale, so maybe they saw it and thought they could milk it

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

T-14

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2477	32751	7.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 7:00pm EST}

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

68

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-14

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.476x) ~$8.6M THUR

 

Mario 

(0.607x) ~$19.4M THUR adjusted for previews ~$14.4M THUR

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

T-13

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2603	32751	7.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:00pm EST}

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

126

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-13

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.475x) ~$8.3M THUR

 

If it follows Aladdin IM (~$108M OW)