The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nope. I normally track them separate. I will check and add that as well. it does have 1 dolby show at 7PM. I would not club them as that tends to skew the projection.

 

I am of opinion to add any early shows after Monday before release because that's basically THU previews audience watching the film even earlier.

 

any shows before that, not so much.

Edited May 11, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[ThatWaluigiDude]

13 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Hypnotic 

 

Thursday

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
27	82	2390	3.4%

 

COMPS

T-1

 

Evil Dead Rises - (0.0954x) ~$238K THUR

$2.3M OW

 

Pope's Exorcist - (0.503x) ~$402K THUR

$4.5M OW

 

Scream VI - (0.0467x) ~$415K THUR

$2M OW

 

AIR - (0.143x) ~$456K THUR

$2.8M OW

 

Big Yikes

I get shocked when movies I've never heard before in my life until someone tracks in this thread do bad. Shocked I say, shocked!

Edited May 11, 2023 by ThatWaluigiDude

[Durden]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY incl EA 

 

T-27 *First 24 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
99	458	9344	4.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

ATP: $14.90

 

COMPS

T-27

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.114x) ~$2.1M THUR

 

Little Mermaid

(0.297x) 

 

EA is actually doing pretty well so far (205 seats sold out of 1678 seats) 

But anemic start for Thursday in both allocations and PS 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

15 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

Oh and just to clarify, I'm waiting to see what Shawn says in his BOP report this Friday on whether I will look at Transformers or not. If 70M+ is possible in that range he puts out, I will do it. If not, I will wait until week of release. With three movies to track, all of which having insanely early (and annoying) preview times, adding another one in there only makes things more complicated.

$70m total is more likely than $70m opening, IMHO.

 

Final range will be around 30-40m OW at the most when it goes up tomorrow. I'm concerned this will have a Shazam 2/Morbius/Dark Phoenix/MIB International/Terminator: Dark Fate kind of run being sandwiched between Spider-Verse, The Flash, and lesser extent Indy.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

$70m total is more likely than $70m opening, IMHO.

 

Final range will be around 30-40m OW when it goes up tomorrow. I'm concerned this will have a Dark Phoenix/MIB International/Terminator: Dark Fate kind of run being sandwiched between Spider-Verse, The Flash, and lesser extent Indy.

Yeesh 70m total for Transformers would be a disaster tbh.

[TheFlatLannister]

Yeah so far Transformer is pacing a lot more like Shazam than a $70M opening like John Wick

[BadOlCatSylvester]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$70m total is more likely than $70m opening, IMHO.

 

Final range will be around 30-40m OW at the most when it goes up tomorrow. I'm concerned this will have a Shazam 2/Morbius/Dark Phoenix/MIB International/Terminator: Dark Fate kind of run being sandwiched between Spider-Verse, The Flash, and lesser extent Indy.

This is going to be the last theatrical Transformers movie we're ever going to get, are we? There's always the feeble hope the animated one next year is a hit and that the franchise can live on through there.

[cookie]

18 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$70m total is more likely than $70m opening, IMHO.

 

Final range will be around 30-40m OW at the most when it goes up tomorrow. I'm concerned this will have a Shazam 2/Morbius/Dark Phoenix/MIB International/Terminator: Dark Fate kind of run being sandwiched between Spider-Verse, The Flash, and lesser extent Indy.

RIP my summer wager if Trans7mers does that bad, lol.

[Maggie]

Has this been posted? TLM tracking is increasing

 

Quote

Thursday’s tracking reports also brought revised forecasts for several other high-profile films. The Little Mermaid‘s estimated opening has increased from $110 million to between $115 million and $120 million (the Disney live-action pic opens over Memorial Day). Fast X, which debuts on June 19, is looking to open to $67 million to $70 million.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-across-spider-verse-box-office-tracking-1235485329/

[PrinceRico]

Great for TLM and also decent for Fast X

[TwoMisfits]

29 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$70m total is more likely than $70m opening, IMHO.

 

Final range will be around 30-40m OW at the most when it goes up tomorrow. I'm concerned this will have a Shazam 2/Morbius/Dark Phoenix/MIB International/Terminator: Dark Fate kind of run being sandwiched between Spider-Verse, The Flash, and lesser extent Indy.

 

Damn, Shawn, who knew I read your mind yesterday?:)

 

EDIT TO ADD: I will say, though, that Transformers could be a movie that could benefit highly from a $5 TMobile PLF ticket deal...I gotta think a lot of old franchise watchers might be swayed to check the new one out in Imax if they only had to pay $5...

Edited May 11, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Jonwo]

I think Transformers needs a longer break but I wonder if the fact as a concept, it's not as easy to reinvent. 

 

 

[AJG]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I think Transformers needs a longer break but I wonder if the fact as a concept, it's not as easy to reinvent. 

 

 

Transformers needs a complete reboot. Top to bottom. Not this wishy-washy, maybe-it-is-maybe-it-isn’t nonsense they’re pulling her
 

It’s too ancient, the 16 year olds that caught the first movie are in their 30’s, a 16 year old today would’ve been just fresh out the womb. There are too many movies and for the most part they are not a strong enough to convince younger people to go back and watch.

 

It’s over.

[Mulder]

Just now, AJG said:

Transformers needs a complete reboot. Top to bottom. Not this wishy-washy, maybe-it-is-maybe-it-isn’t nonsense they’re pulling her
 

It’s too ancient, the 16 year olds that caught the first movie are in their 30’s, a 16 year old today would’ve been just fresh out the womb. There are too many movies and for the most part they are not a strong enough to convince younger people to go back and watch.

 

It’s over.

This right here is the big issue. Baffling to me that after Bumblebee instead of keeping it basic and doubling down on this being a full reboot, they're doing a 50/50 "Maybe it is, maybe it isn't" movie that's also stuffed to the brim with Beast Wars and Unicron instead of a simple 80s-set Autobots vs Decepticons story like Bumblebee set up.

[filmlover]

I'm more curious about what the tracking for The Flash and Elemental that should be coming in next week. The latter's getting solid bookings (as in 3 screens) at the theaters that have uploaded showtimes so far from (but aren't on sale yet) from what I've seen.

[JWR]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm more curious about what the tracking for The Flash and Elemental that should be coming in next week. The latter's getting solid bookings (as in 3 screens) at the theaters that have uploaded showtimes so far from (but aren't on sale yet) from what I've seen.

 

The latter needs all the goodwill it can get, tbh

[YM!]

53 minutes ago, cookie said:

RIP my summer wager if Trans7mers does that bad, lol.

Not me, I didn’t even put it on my list lol. 
 

13 minutes ago, AJG said:

Transformers needs a complete reboot. Top to bottom. Not this wishy-washy, maybe-it-is-maybe-it-isn’t nonsense they’re pulling her
 

It’s too ancient, the 16 year olds that caught the first movie are in their 30’s, a 16 year old today would’ve been just fresh out the womb. There are too many movies and for the most part they are not a strong enough to convince younger people to go back and watch.

 

It’s over.

I agree but I think the best way for a complete reboot to be effective would be to wait another five or so years. Some franchises after exhausting themselves need a 10 year rest, Transformers was one of them.

 

I think Transformers One will do relatively okay as they’re just doing Cybertron Wars which is different enough but it’s also close to Rise of the Beasts, but somewhere in between Bumblebee and Rise of the Beasts domestically and O/U 250m WW which isn’t good but well enough due to a lower budget.

[TMP]

Anyone who saw the first trailer for rise of the beasts would tell you it would mega bomb. A big appeal of the series is cutting edge vfx, but they somehow look significantly worse than 2007. Feel like the bad reviews will only further hurt the ow

[JayPrimetown]

I know it's fun to talk about tracking for films coming out next month, but any insights into the films coming out this week?