The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[rehpyc]

55 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you just looking at thursday or are you including early fan shows on wednesday as well. That will add about a million dollars as well. 

Good call - that's only Thursday.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/4/2023 at 6:11 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	2519	25403	9.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

80

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.448x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.8M THUR Previews

 

(0.703x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$12.2M THUR Previews 

 

(1.690x) of FAST X

~$12.7M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	2608	25403	10.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.429x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.5M THUR Previews

 

(0.697x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$12.1M THUR Previews 

 

(1.665x) of FAST X

~$12.5M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$11M Previews 

 

Transformers had me thinking about EA and growth patterns so here is just THURSDAY numbers

 

COMPS ONLY THURSDAY

T-10

 

(0.388x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.8M THUR Previews

 

(0.631x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$10.9M THUR Previews 

 

(1.509x) of FAST X

~$11.3M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$10M Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/4/2023 at 6:20 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
83	526	12249	4.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
83	538	12249	4.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/4/2023 at 6:18 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	1625	23376	7.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-25

 

*GOTG3 only comp I have this far out*

 

*UNOFFICIAL*

(0.386x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.8M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	1671	23376	7.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-24

 

*GOTG3 only comp I have this far out*

 

*UNOFFICIAL*

(0.371x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.5M THUR Previews

 

 

This is trending downwards. I wonder if any other trackers are seeing this as well. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/4/2023 at 6:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
108	2192	22296	9.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

204

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.088x) of Fast X

~$8.2M THUR Previews 

 

Comp pointing to $8M previews right now, but i feel like O-town overindexing a bit (Would probably bet on a number closer to $7M)

 

Pace is definitely picking up though 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
117	2373	24319	9.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

181

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.074x) of Fast X

~$8.0M Previews 

 

 

COMPS WITHOUT EA

T-3

 

(0.744x) of Fast X

~$5.6M Previews 

 

Shoutout to @M37 from bringing this up

Edited June 5, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Phoenix22]

First time posting here, but I've been reading since a few months ago: So far in Mexico City, The Flash has been selling better than what Shazam ($4.1MUSD OW) and Black Adam ($5.2MUSD OW), but less than what ATSV had done by then, these are the latest CBM numbers from the MCU/Marvel:

 

Movie - OW - Final

Shazam2: $4.1M - $10.3M

BA: $5.2M - $15.6M

Eternals: $5.7M - $15.3M

AM3: $8.4M - $17.9M

ATSV: $11.6M (Debut)

BPWF: $13.1M - $35.6M

GOTG: $13.5M - $33.7M (Active)

 

Right now presale trends lead to a OW around $6.5M - $8M and looking that the worse legs are around 2.2x (AM3 and Shazam) and good legs are 3x that give us a final number for the mexican box office in the range of $16M - $22M, I personally don't see this grossing less than AM3 final (unless it has bad reviews) but it definetly won't hit $30M, so I'll settle with a number of $20M final, not bad, but also nothing spectacular, Fast X has done $33M so far and Super Mario Bros $84M...

 

And for Domestic OW I expect something in the range of $80M - $90M.

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
117	2373	24319	9.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

181

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.074x) of Fast X

~$8.0M THUR Previews 

 

 

COMPS WITHOUT EA

T-3

 

(0.744x) of Fast X

~$5.6M THUR Previews 

 

Shoutout to @M37 from bringing this up

I can say for sure its not going to do 2.4m on wednesday. Its going to be around 1m. 

[TheFlatLannister]

I'm not making any sort of prediction, just posting the numbers as they are 

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, YSLDC said:

 

He used to work for the major studios and has connections in the industry 

 

I know him and he definitely has insider knowledge but that doesn’t necessarily make him a box office analyst 

[raegr]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-10 Thursday

120 Showings

2630

+164

19535

ATP:

15.72

0.525

Across the Spider-Verse T-10

9.10M

1.804	Black Adam T-10	13.71M
0.206	Thor L&T T-10	5.99M

0.529

Eternals T-10

5.02M

 

T-11 Friday

154 Showings

1816

+110

25648

ATP:

16.14

0.398

Across the Spider-Verse T-11

13.75M

1.486	Black Adam T-11	28.37M
0.171	Thor L&T T-11	6.93M

0.412

Eternals T-11

8.80M

 

T-12 Saturday

152 Showings

1643

+92

25355

ATP:

15.31

0.361

Across the Spider-Verse T-12

13.51M

1.299	Black Adam T-12	30.79M
0.163	Thor L&T T-12	6.86M

0.366

Eternals T-12

8.83M

 

T-13 Sunday

137 Showings

704

+44

23472

ATP:

14.31

0.257

Across the Spider-Verse T-13

8.04M

1.600	Black Adam T-13	26.56M
0.127	Thor L&T T-13	4.13M

0.268

Eternals T-13

4.38M

lets hope it performs like Black Adam because if it doesn't 

 

[M37]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I can say for sure its not going to do 2.4m on wednesday. Its going to be around 1m. 

The point was more that comps with EA shows included was suggesting much higher than Thursday only + EA$ is likely to land, even if pace is a little better than comps after those shows play (and stop pulling demand from Thursday). In my limited spot checking, Boogeyman had the same dynamic at play 

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Don't think comps are even useful given the disparity of pre-sale windows, but just to show you how crazy Nolanites can be, Oppenhemier sold another 68 tickets today (to bring the total to 335/4146 |   8.08%), this time 41 of those tickets being sold at the TrueIMAX theater.

 

This really is mimicking Dune in a lot of ways, right down to preference on which PLF screens to see it at.  Shame the pre-sale windows are so different, as it's gonna play merry havoc with the comps for a good long while.

 

Was just reading the Oppenheimer thread and was reminded that I did want to comment on this factor:

 

 

The local one screen TrueIMAX theater I've been mentioning on occasion is one of the ones that has the 70mm print of Oppenheimer.  

 

One one hand, as one of the 26 theaters in the DOM market to carry the 70mm print, that's quite likely to cause an over-performance here locally at least in the short run.  On the other hand, we're talking two showings that'll cap out eventually.  

 

But I wasn't aware that the 70mm print had such a limited run so it is something that'll need to be factored in at least for the short term.  Normally I would just think this would reallocate sales within the region, but with the nearest 70mm print being in the Metreon in San Fran and the Regal Hacienda in Dublin, I can absolutely see this particular theater pulling in tickets from a larger region than normal, especially from the Central Valley.

 

 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Was just reading the Oppenheimer thread and was reminded that I did want to comment on this factor:

 

 

The local one screen TrueIMAX theater I've been mentioning on occasion is one of the ones that has the 70mm print of Oppenheimer.  

 

One one hand, as one of the 26 theaters in the DOM market to carry the 70mm print, that's quite likely to cause an over-performance here locally at least in the short run.  On the other hand, we're talking two showings that'll cap out eventually.  

 

But I wasn't aware that the 70mm print had such a limited run so it is something that'll need to be factored in at least for the short term.  Normally I would just think this would reallocate sales within the region, but with the nearest 70mm print being in the Metreon in San Fran and the Regal Hacienda in Dublin, I can absolutely see this particular theater pulling in tickets from a larger region than normal, especially from the Central Valley.

 

 

 

Metreon has 2nd biggest Imax screen. I am planning to go 50 miles to see it there. So it will pull in some demand for sure. 

[rehpyc]

Edit - Scrapping the original post, with originally botching the inclusion of EA.

Edited June 6, 2023 by rehpyc

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I can say for sure its not going to do 2.4m on wednesday. Its going to be around 1m. 

I think $1.5M probably doable. 
 

Though what will happen if Thursday alone comp will rise to 6+ after EA.

[ringedmortality]

So in plain English, how is Oppenheimer doing 

[cooldude97]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

So in plain English, how is Oppenheimer doing 

good, but PLF heavy like expected 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So in plain English, how is Oppenheimer doing 

Presales across the board is only starting tomorrow. Let us check Wednesday morning. Plus its more than 6 weeks away. So there is still EONS to make a conclusion. 

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

I think $1.5M probably doable. 
 

Though what will happen if Thursday alone comp will rise to 6+ after EA.

I dont how that can happen with limited shows at MTC1. Unless its playing at similar levels at all MTC and also it almost sells out everywhere. 

 

I wish @katnisscinnaplex could grab the show count for Wednesday. 

[TheFlatLannister]

12 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

I think you all would laugh if you knew just how little the EA is bringing in with a MTC. It barely changes the growth %s provided previously.

 

One thing I didn't account for before was an ATP difference between now and T-0, as it drops quite a bit as a larger proportion of sales go to non-premium formats as things get closer to opening. With taking a conservative drop comparable to some comps, the revised outlook provided before looks like:

 

JWD: 5.2M

BA: 5.0M

JW4: 5.4M

FX: 5.2M

 

Adding in the EA does put things back to roughly my last breakdown. I'm very new to this and still finding my way, so definitely willing to look at things at a different angle.

Depends on what TC you're using. Here (Across 5 chains) EA is accounting for over 30% of the preview presales