The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Future Foundation]

8 minutes ago, Greedo said:

Deadline is also saying that the weekend could be as high as 85 million 😂

 

That was only if it played like a Venom/Doctor Strange. Their outlook was something like $70 mil.

[Dragoncaine]

Possibly a lowball for Flash and a highball for Elemental? Wasn't expecting either of those estimates lmao

[keysersoze123]

Normal ratio for Flash should take its previews above 10m. But this will overindex at MTC1. I am still going with ~10.25m previews. 

[GOGODanca]

How does a trade not understand what the upper bound for summer multipliers for comic book movies are? 

[Future Foundation]

Just now, GOGODanca said:

How does a trade not understand what the upper bound for summer multipliers for comic book movies are? 

 

(what are the upper bound for summer multipliers for cbms?)

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, YM! said:

Disney/Pixar’s Elemental started previews at 3PM tonight and box office sources peg that pic’s Thursday night at around $3.5M. 
 

How?!

Too early to get estimates. Early numbers for previews are almost always off. 

[Dragoncaine]

Flash just hit 89% verified audience score. Maybe it'll break 90% tomorrow morning a la Transformers

Edited June 16, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, Future Foundation said:

 

(what are the upper bound for summer multipliers for cbms?)

7-7.5, no comic book movie with 3PM shows in the summer is pulling 9+ IM which is what would be required for $85m

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Future Foundation said:

 

(what are the upper bound for summer multipliers for cbms?)

 

There aren't a lot that meet the necessary parameters. Since 2018 for instance, we've only had 4 live action, summer CBM's. Ant-Man 2 did 6.6x but it didn't have 3PM previews. Far From Home opened on a Tuesday. Black Widow did 6.08x with day/date on Disney+ and Thor: L&T did 4.97x.... 

[kayumanggi]

65M - 80M for DEAD RECKONING I as per box office pro

Long Range Box Office Forecast: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[PlatnumRoyce]

6 hours ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

Seems like the general consensus for Flash previews is in the 9-9.5 range. I imagine the IM is in the 5.7-6.7 range. Final OW estimate; 52-64M.

Why so low? Am I just overestimating generic internal multipliers (I rarely dive deeply into previews)?  Edit: I see you essentially answered this is the comment above and the answer is "yes."

Edited June 16, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[JpTransformers]

 

[JpTransformers]

62m - Flash

25m - Elemental 

 

I'll bet on it 

[Ledmonkey96]

i mean Ant-man had atrocious legs but it did open to 225mil~ so that's not a huge surprise tbh. 

[filmlover]

17 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

65M - 80M for DEAD RECKONING I as per box office pro

Long Range Box Office Forecast: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

About one week until the update we've all been waiting for.

 

[screambaby]

38 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

65M - 80M for DEAD RECKONING I as per box office pro

Long Range Box Office Forecast: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

68-102 for indy?

If it gets anywhere near 90 at this point I'd be ecstatic 

[keysersoze123]

68-102 covers all the bases for Indy for sure :-)

[JustLurking]

46 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Why so low? Am I just overestimating generic internal multipliers (I rarely dive deeply into previews)?  Edit: I see you essentially answered this is the comment above and the answer is "yes."

Schools are off so summer multipliers are naturally lower. Even a film as GA friendly as JWD only did 8x.

[Porthos]

On 6/15/2023 at 12:58 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-36]

594/7572 [7.73% sold]   [+9 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              311/776    [+4 tickets] [52.36% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   211/3558  [-2 tickets] [35.52% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           72/3238 [+7 tickets] [12.12% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-35]

617/7572 [8.15% sold]   [+24 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              323/776    [+12 tickets] [52.35% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   215/3558   [+4 tickets] [34.85% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           79/3238   [+7 tickets] [12.80% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/15/2023 at 1:00 AM, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	128	19072	20241	1169	5.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

53

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	173.44		39	674		0/136	20705/21379	3.15%		6409	18.24%		10.75m
JWD	48.21		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	10.66%		8.68m
BA	137.05		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	26.01%		10.42m
Wick 4	107.54		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	21.46%		9.57m
FX	123.31		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	28.36%		9.25m
TLM	81.18		96	1440		0/154	21277/22717	6.34%		6561	17.82%		8.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     226/6084  [3.71% sold]
Matinee:    72/1728  [4.17% | 6.16% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Decided it was time to rope in some new comps.  NTTD, due to difference in pre-sale length, is the clear outlier (yes, yes, let r/boxoffice know — we know, we know). 

 

Aside from that, lets see if this second wave of reactions/reviews really moves the needle or not.

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	128	18983	20241	1258	6.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

89

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	174.00		49	723		0/135	20536/21259	3.40%		6409	19.63%		10.79m
JWD	48.48		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	11.47%		8.73m
BA	137.94		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	27.99%		10.48m
Wick 4	109.30		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	23.09%		9.73m
FX	120.15		99	1047		0/178	26663/27710	3.78%		4122	30.52%		9.01m
TLM	82.38		87	1527		0/154	21187/22714	6.72%		6561	19.17%		8.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     247/6084  [4.06% sold]
Matinee:    86/1728  [4.98% | 6.84% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

So I noticed literally seconds ago I had the wrong comp for NTTD (was multiplying by the wrong number in my spreadsheet).  Oops!  Fixed in this chart and I'll fix the previous day's chart in a few minutes (ETA: Annnd, fixed)

Edited June 16, 2023 by Porthos