The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Samwise the Brave]

Makes me think 50M is possible 

[YM!]

5 hours ago, YourMother said:

Hmmm, well Dumbledore is overindexed here. It’s already the biggest post COVID seller that I’ve tracked here (didn’t do NWH or Batman due to timelines) as it’s already at 97% of Venom 2 and Shang-Chi’s Tuesday before release sales here. 

To further increase how big it is, it’s selling 8.6% ahead of Justice League and 42% of Spider-Man Homecoming at the same time at my theater. Granted these are really old comparisons but Dumbledore is acting like a biggie.

[Samwise the Brave]

22 minutes ago, YourMother said:

To further increase how big it is, it’s selling 8.6% ahead of Justice League and 42% of Spider-Man Homecoming at the same time at my theater. Granted these are really old comparisons but Dumbledore is acting like a biggie.

Any idea why that is? Both made at least 90M but it seems people expect half of that

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, Samwise the Brave said:

Any idea why that is? Both made at least 90M but it seems people expect half of that

Discrepancies happen with ticket sales all the time. They’re many different factors at play as well. An example of which was I tracked The Lion King at one point which according to my comparisons indicated a $250m+ OW. The Potter fanbase tends to by tickets upfront moreso than most blockbusters as well as if memory serves correct tends to have a more frontloaded OW multiplier.

[Samwise the Brave]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

Discrepancies happen with ticket sales all the time. They’re many different factors at play as well. An example of which was I tracked The Lion King at one point which according to my comparisons indicated a $250m+ OW. The Potter fanbase tends to by tickets upfront moreso than most blockbusters as well as if memory serves correct tends to have a more frontloaded OW multiplier.

Aight thought it's like that, but thanks for the confirmation

[Legion Again]

Yeah Dumbledore d2-4 we’re really good relative to d1. Solid chance of 50+ now.   
 

Sonic 70+

[Cmasterclay]

Ambulance numbers suck, should have got a major release on March 18th.

[filmlover]

Ambulance's early sales near me look so miserable that I'm pretty sure it was destined to underwhelm no matter when it opened. Seems like Jake Gyllenhaal is destined to always be box office kryptonite, unfortunately.

[Samwise the Brave]

Is anyone on board with 60M? Or is that a bit too optimistic

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, Samwise the Brave said:

Is anyone on board with 60M? Or is that a bit too optimistic

 

Nah I don't see that. FB2 did $62M off a $9M Thursday. Most of these are looking like $6-7M for Thursday. Personally I'm thinking somewhere in the $45-52M range. 

[CJohn]

Ambulance is a mega bomb and FB3 is the end of the franchise.

 

Save us Sonic.

[CJohn]

3 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Ambulance numbers suck, should have got a major release on March 18th.

It started its OS release on that weekend curiously. I am not sure why Universal delayed it to April 8 in America.

[WrathOfHan]

30 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It started its OS release on that weekend curiously. I am not sure why Universal delayed it to April 8 in America.

 

Omicron. Uni and Sony taking big fat Ls two weeks in a row.

[Eric is Anxious]

Again, I'm still not sure why people were thinking Ambulance had much potential. I love Jake and Yahya, but those aren't really big stars, and Michael Bay hasn't had a real big non-Transformers hit in forever. Even the likes on YouTube's trailers aren't all that great. Would it really go any further than like...60M? 13 Hours and Pain and Gain had more going for them, and they only did 50M. I'm just lost here.

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Omicron. Uni and Sony taking big fat Ls two weeks in a row.

Was that really the stated reason? Believing there would be much omicron in mid March would be crazy. 
 

I guess we’ve seen studios do sillier things, but still.  
 

Edit: I agree with Eric though — even with the best possible date this is like a 40M movie or something. What’s the draw?

Edited April 4, 2022 by Eric Legion

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

60m would have be good for Ambulance

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Is Ambulance at least going over 10M OW? 

[filmlover]

Universal originally had The Black Phone, Marry Me, and Ambulance on back-to-back-to-back weekends in February back around the beginning of December. Within weeks of that and the rise of Omicron, one movie would end up a day-and-date title, another moved to a prime summer spot, and the last moved away from intense competition from Uncharted and The Batman (despite being R while the others are PG-13).

 

One thing the folks tracking Fantastic Beasts should keep in mind is that Good Friday will result in intense frontloading that weekend. It could pull a $20M+ opening day (true Friday + what it makes in previews) and still possibly end up with an opening weekend below $50M due to the holiday.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

Is Ambulance at least going over 10M OW? 

Walk ups need to save it with these sales. IMAX still might not be enough.

 

Non-IPs over 10m OW: (live action)post 2019

Lost City- 30.4m

Free Guy- 28.3m

Dog- 14.8m

House of Gucci- 14.4m

The Photograph- 12.1m

The Gentleman- 10.6m

Like A Boss- 10m

——

Moonfall- 9.8m

Tenet- 9.3m

 

Old was based on a comic, but did 16.8m. 

Very sad.

[misterpepp]

15 minutes ago, Eric Legion said:

Was that really the stated reason? Believing there would be much omicron in mid March would be crazy. 
 

I guess we’ve seen studios do sillier things, but still. 

 

I believe the studios have made this mistake 3 times now in the past year, turning a perfectly fine space into a wasteland and handing another studio a huge W. Happened in September (King's Man and/or Jackass would've been nice during the mid/late portions of that month, Clifford prob should've stayed put too if they were set on D&D), again in January (Ok, not exactly a great spot, but something should've taken the old Morbius weekend), and yet again in March. No idea why they keep making the same error over and over.

Edited April 4, 2022 by datpepper