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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 4/5/2022 at 11:03 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:
Day Movie Area TC Shows Seats Sold New % Sold
T-1 Sonic (EA) Jacksonville 5 6 942 180 52 19.11%
    Phoenix 1 1 208 131 12 62.98%
    Raleigh 1 1 261 69 11 26.44%
  Sonic (EA) Total   7 8 1,411 380 75 26.93%
T-2 Ambulance Jacksonville 6 15 2,840 19 10 0.67%
    Phoenix 6 15 2,490 42 13 1.69%
    Raleigh 8 13 1,608 29 7 1.80%
  Ambulance Total   20 43 6,938 90 30 1.30%
T-2 Sonic Jacksonville 6 40 6,196 320 51 5.16%
    Phoenix 6 35 5,056 383 41 7.58%
    Raleigh 8 29 3,621 369 95 10.19%
  Sonic Total   20 104 14,873 1,072 187 7.21%
T-9 Fantastic Beasts 3 Jacksonville 6 53 10,314 281 27 2.72%
    Phoenix 6 43 8,541 266 21 3.11%
    Raleigh 8 41 5,253 357 16 6.80%
  Fantastic Beasts 3 Total   20 137 24,108 904 64 3.75%

 

Sonic 2 EA T-1 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .4x

 

Sonic 2 T-2 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - .98x (4.08m)

 - Uncharted - 1.378x (5.098m)

 - F9 - .62x (4.399m)

 - Lost City - 3.07x (7.68m)

 

Here's how Sonic is performing against more similar movies:

 - Boss Baby - 7.39x (9.68m)

 - Peter Rabbit - 10.31x (9.28m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.27x (8.82m)

 - Encanto - 4.43x (6.64m)

 

Ambulance T-2 comps

 - Snake Eyes - .39x (550k)

 - Resident Evil - .65x (605k)

 - Green Knight - .56x (417k)

 

So much for convergence.

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-9 comps

 - Shang Chi - .926x (8.15m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - 1.72x (8.92m)

 - F9 - 1.05x (7.43m)

Day Movie Area TC Shows Seats Sold New % Sold
T-0 Sonic (EA) Jacksonville 5 6 942 229 49 24.31%
    Phoenix 1 1 208 154 23 74.04%
    Raleigh 1 1 261 99 30 37.93%
  Sonic (EA) Total   7 8 1,411 482 102 34.16%
T-1 Ambulance Jacksonville 6 18 3,125 29 10 0.93%
    Phoenix 6 15 2,490 50 8 2.01%
    Raleigh 8 13 1,608 52 23 3.23%
  Ambulance Total   20 46 7,223 131 41 1.81%
T-1 EEAAO Jacksonville 3 4 280 40 40 14.29%
    Phoenix 5 8 990 102 102 10.30%
    Raleigh 2 4 262 67 67 25.57%
  EEAAO Total   10 16 1,532 209 209 13.64%
T-1 Sonic Jacksonville 6 50 7,199 454 134 6.31%
    Phoenix 6 38 5,438 480 97 8.83%
    Raleigh 8 30 3,711 466 97 12.56%
  Sonic Total   20 118 16,348 1,400 328 8.56%
T-29 Doctor Strange 2 Jacksonville 6 147 23,303 577 577 2.48%
    Phoenix 6 127 19,243 451 451 2.34%
    Raleigh 7 113 14,179 773 773 5.45%
  Doctor Strange 2 Total   19 387 56,725 1,801 1,801 3.17%
T-8 Fantastic Beasts 3 Jacksonville 6 59 11,329 336 55 2.97%
    Phoenix 6 47 9,233 307 41 3.33%
    Raleigh 8 42 5,332 398 41 7.46%
  Fantastic Beasts 3 Total   20 148 25,894 1,041 137 4.02%

 

Sonic 2 EA T-0 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .4x

 

Sonic 2 T-1 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - 1x (4.15m)

 - Uncharted - 1.5x (5.55m)

 - F9 - .64x (4.56m)

 - Lost City - 2.9x (7.25m)

 

Here's how Sonic is performing against more similar movies:

 - Boss Baby - 8x (10.48m)

 - Peter Rabbit - 13.08x (11.77m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.03x (8.18m)

 - Encanto - 4.52x (6.77m)

 

Ambulance T-1 comps

 - Snake Eyes - .42x (588k)

 - Resident Evil - .71x (666k)

 - Green Knight - .565x (423k)

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-8 comps

 - Shang Chi - .958x (8.43m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.9x (7.88m)

 - NTTD - 1.77x (9.19m)

 - F9 - 1.157x (8.21m)

 

I wasn't planning on pulling sales for DS2 yet, just wanted to get the seating charts as soon as possible.  Once I saw how quickly it was selling I just went for it.  1801 tickets sold during the hour and a half of pulling shows.  For reference, here are the first tracking numbers I have for the others:

 

Batman (9 hrs): 1,568

Batman + EA (9 hrs): 2,872

Spider-Man (9 hrs): 7,810

Eternals (23 hrs): 763

Shang-Chi (51 hrs): 580

Black Widow (some point in day 1): 537

 

Great start!

 

**Edit**

Forgot to mention EEAAO sales!

 

Don't have time to think hard about comps, but here are the first ones that came to mind

 

EEAAO T-1 comps

 - Stillwater - 4.45x (1.25m)

 - Gucci - .576x (748k)

 - Green Knight - .9x (676k)

 - X - 1.54x (676k)

Edited by katnisscinnaplex
Add EEAAO
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
Just now, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

I just read from a random account saying Doctor Strange has already outpaced The Batman 1st 24hrs in 2hrs?

 

Seems huge BS. Any validity? 

Seems pretty likely to me, based on what users here have posted and just some anecdotal checks of local theaters. 

Edited by Menor Reborn
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XXRDJisDoctorDoom Global Phenomenon

XXRDJisDoctorDoom

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

I just read from a random account saying Doctor Strange has already outpaced The Batman 1st 24hrs in 2hrs?

 

Seems huge BS. Any validity? 


Not BS. When I tracked one theater, The Batman did 215 tickets sold in its first 24 hours. DS was at 304 after 100 minutes. 

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SupermanLego Indie Sensation

SupermanLego

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, KnucklesXXR said:


Not BS. When I tracked one theater, The Batman did 215 tickets sold in its first 24 hours. DS was at 304 after 100 minutes. 

What was NWH numbers ? and was TB tickets just a slow starter ?

Edited by SupermanLego
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XXRDJisDoctorDoom Global Phenomenon

XXRDJisDoctorDoom

Posted
Posted
Just now, SupermanLego said:

What was NWH numbers ?


I couldn’t check NWH for a while because of how long the queues were and how long things were down, but at 40 hours it was already over 2000 tickets sold. The rush was incredibly heavy. For DS2, I think 750 at 40 hours would be a good number.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted

Dr Strange 2 is starting with 4379 shows at MTC2 on thursday which is huge. Its going to really tough to track this as it will take 16-18 hrs to get data !!!! Just started a run and its very good but nothing crazy. NWH was in another dimension all together. Was not even able to track anything on its opening day. it would just keep queuing. 

 

Data from @ZackM is the most important metric :-) I hope he comes online sometime soon. 

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Old Spice Sleeper Hit

Old Spice

Posted
Posted (edited)

50%ish drop for Morbius from true FSS seems incredibly optimistic. Current counts at my theater for Thursday/Friday are as follows:

 

Thur 0/470

Fri 2/240

 

I didn't even bother looking up Saturday.

 

🪦

Edited by A Star is Orm
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cooldude97 Sleeper Hit

cooldude97

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/sonic-2-box-office-opening-weekend-ambulance-1235225701/

 

$55m+ for Sonic 2, 90m budget 

 

$15-17m for Morbius optimistically

 

$10m for Ambulance

considering the 2 hour runtime and there being significantly more action i'm kinda shocked sonic 2 didn't go over the $100M for it's budget 

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