The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Overall sales from pre-release mon through ow sun is the period I mean.   
 

Venom CS was the same as the first, DS2 and TROS 2 notches below mcu/Dec SW typical. I would say franchise expectations for JWD were more A/A- level and the level of falling short of expected quality would be far more like DS2/TROS than V2 which basically didn’t fall short at all (expected to be 100 mins of nonsense campy schlock, was).

 

I'd argue that expectations for Dominion are 120 min of kinda poorly-written schlocky dino stuff, should be fine as long as reception doesn't fall too far behind FK even if it hits B+. 

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

I'd argue that expectations for Dominion are 120 min of kinda poorly-written schlocky dino stuff, should be fine as long as reception doesn't fall too far behind FK even if it hits B+. 

I think the expectations for quality were similar to those we had for BO until quite recently — a return to JW1 quality after a disappointing sequel. Being perceived as as bad as FK would be fine at the end of the day, but *worse*… could get dicey. Of course we are like 5 days away from knowing DOM reception for sure.

[M37]

29 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

I understand that JW has an expectation of blowing up final week, but on the other hand I also remember DS2 and TROS having really weak final Mon-Sun because of B+. Dominion also feels like a B+ is coming to me, so I would be pretty careful of assuming some V2/FK action for last minute save.

The same reason JWD can (will?) blow up in this last week is the same reason why reviews are not going to matter (unless they're gawd awful): its just not a fan heavy movie where people are invested in the broader story arc. Man creates dinosaurs, dinosaurs eat man is the relevant premise; how well that it executed is what matters, in terms of whether it feels like a cheap script knocked out in someone's basement during a 3-day bender (which isn't all that far from how I feel about FK)

 

Do you think reviews have mattered much to the Fast & Furious franchise, where all but two (2 and 9) have gotten at least an A-?

[Bigscrubnus]

So the Boxofficepro weekend projection is coming out Wednesday, right?

 

im dreading it lmao

Edited June 5, 2022 by Bigscrubnus

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

how well that it executed is what matters, in terms of whether it feels like a cheap script knocked out in someone's basement during a 3-day bender

This is exactly what I also think matters, and what I think will be a drag on sales!  
 

I’m not saying people care much about the reviews.

Edited June 5, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

The same reason JWD can (will?) blow up in this last week is the same reason why reviews are not going to matter (unless they're gawd awful): its just not a fan heavy movie where people are invested in the broader story arc. Man creates dinosaurs, dinosaurs eat man is the relevant premise; how well that it executed is what matters, in terms of whether it feels like a cheap script knocked out in someone's basement during a 3-day bender (which isn't all that far from how I feel about FK)

 

Do you think reviews have mattered much to the Fast & Furious franchise, where all but two (2 and 9) have gotten at least an A-?

 

Or as i like to say it: It is really really HARD to actually fuck up a JW movie in such a way that the GA woudnt like it.

Edited June 5, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[Menor the Destroyer]

I do think there is actually a decent minority chance that reactions are bad enough that they do become a drag, just isn't my prediction for now. I think audience reception a bit under FK, but not by too much (what I'm expecting) won't be too big a drag on the multi. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Or as i like to say it: It is really really HARD to actually fuck up a JW movie in such a way that the GA woudnt like it.

3rd time’s the charm? 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I do think there is actually a decent minority chance that reactions are bad enough that they do become a drag, just isn't my prediction for now. I think audience reception a bit under FK, but not by too much (what I'm expecting) won't be too big a drag on the multi. 

 

One key factor will be family reception i.e. if kids will find it fun or boring. FK - for all the flaws one could have with it - was never boring and so went over quite well with family audiences. It remains to be seen if Dominion manages to do the same.

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

This is exactly what I also think matters, and what I think will be a drag on sales!  
 

I’m not saying people care much about the reviews.

And yet … at least from the numbers, there doesn’t appear to have been much impact on sales due to perceived drop off from JW to FK, for either multiplier. It’s not review-proof, but expectation bar on quality is low enough it doesn’t take much to clear it

 

The better argument is that it lacks some level of “buzz”, and in absence of stellar reviews/WOM and with presence of TG2, the ceiling is limited (not unlike Incredibles 2)

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

3rd time’s the charm? 

Yes, JP3 qualifies 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Yes, JP3 qualifies 

 

Spoiler

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The JW reviews are going to be godawful and from what I know, doesn't even seem audience pleasing. I lowered my OW pick to 170 but can def see 150-160 instead and a lower multiplier than the 2nd one

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

  Hide contents

 

Basically Sam Neill after the 1st movie is the curse. Should not have had him back for this one :-)

 

That said the above scene looks hilarious though JP3 was unwatchable. 

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Basically Sam Neill after the 1st movie is the curse. Should not have had him back for this one 🙂

 

That said the above scene looks hilarious though JP3 was unwatchable. 

 

My favourite thing about the Alan! scene is that the raptor design is ofc the raptors from JP3, but Alan has previously only seen the raptors from Jurassic Park 1 which looked very different. So the scene is not only stupid, but also a giant plothole.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[BruiseCruise]

Shawn said that test screenings were doing well with kids which is a good sign

[ZackM]

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	6	0	16	34
Seats Added	0	508	0	1,137	5,781
Seats Sold	8,750	6,658	6,123	4,138	4,359
6/5/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,363	103,861	768,992	13.51%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	15	58	154
ATP
$17.40

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	$14.0	$13.1	$9.4	$8.9	$9.4	$10.0	$10.2
T-5	$13.8	$12.9	$9.0	$8.5	$9.1	$9.6	$9.9
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, ZackM said:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	6	0	16	34
Seats Added	0	508	0	1,137	5,781
Seats Sold	8,750	6,658	6,123	4,138	4,359
6/5/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,363	103,861	768,992	13.51%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	15	58	154
ATP
$17.40

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	$14.0	$13.1	$9.4	$8.9	$9.4	$10.0	$10.2
T-5	$13.8	$12.9	$9.0	$8.5	$9.1	$9.6	$9.9
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

Not a very good bump. If tomorrow is also meh then it's definitely in trouble. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Batman was very Alpha-heavy, though, probably the most of any big blockbuster recently. 

Batman also had higher tix. JWD will have cheaper tix due to kids. I think Alpha (overall, not just tracked) will come around 28%. $20M will need $5.5M ish. In before times TLK did $6.1M for $23M.

$5.5M overall will probably need 330K IMO.

[Cooper Legion]

Mtc is quite in line with my expectations