The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BruiseCruise]

How is 70m the low end when presales don't support that at this point especially since this is a known IP so you can't really expect some crazy IM like say Bad Guys

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, BruiseCruise said:

How is 70m the low end when presales don't support that at this point especially since this is a known IP so you can't really expect some crazy IM like say Bad Guys

Unless pre-sales are being compared to pre-2020 releases, there isn't an inherently relevant comparison for sales right now. Animated films very, very rarely behave like comic book movies or a strong fan property like Sonic 2. I'm not sure anyone can really be confident what the floor is without just being uber-safe and saying something like $50M.

 

I definitely agree that Bad Guys is (probably) a bad comp on the other side of the spectrum as well, though. (EDIT: But full disclosure, I'm using it as a high end anyway. 😅)

 

Encanto and Sing 2 were released during the height of Omicron fears, so they're also suspect until proven useful for a big Pixar summer release in a market that's seen tremendous recovery and return of older audiences in the last six months.

 

Maybe a little panic isn't bad so as to keep expectations in check (kind of like how some worried about TGM just barely hitting $100M or Dominion going under $130M in the final days before their respective releases), but there are a lot of possibilities still on the table right now for Lightyear. It was always going to come down to needing strong walk-up business and Father's Day backloading, those aren't surprising revelations.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

It's actually quite reasonable to everyone who understands how tracking works and acknowledges the lack of traditional comparison points for Lightyear. Deadline could have easily gone with a wider range and been somewhat justified for it.

I understand that, it's just that they were talking about a different of about 20% or thereabouts here given how close we are to release that amused me. Usually they have a more concrete number ala the $45M projection everywhere for Onward when it came out, though I'm aware that animation is still among the more up in the air genres during the pandemic recovery given that it's the genre that's been the face of the streaming sacrifices for the most part since.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

You know I do.

 

MTC1 - 157

MTC2 - 98

MTC3 - 76

 

Total - 481

Thank you. But its releasing in other chains beyond the 3 big ones right? 

[katnisscinnaplex]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thank you. But its releasing in other chains beyond the 3 big ones right? 

Yep, that's why the numbers don't add up.  150 shows in other chains

[katnisscinnaplex]

150 shows tonight for Black Phone EA.  Maybe @ZackM can give some final figures later.

[Tinalera]

Lightyear

 

Southwest and Toronto Ontario (numbers are totals of SW/Tor for both thurs and Fri

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thur	18	75	296	18651	18947	1.56
Fri	19	144	623	31325	31948	1.95

 

Comp

JW3 .849X59 million (5.0 million) (again I have no other comps for day to day. Minions will be my first real start of comps at t-7 with Lightyear.

 

Toronto STILL has 2 theatres on Thurs and 1 on Friday without Lightyear screens yet....I don't think Ive seen this happen in my experience ( pre wed seat dumps yes Ive seen, but Wed is when seat availabilty increases, and still theatres not showing sales)

Edited June 15, 2022 by Tinalera

[Shawn Robbins]

50 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I understand that, it's just that they were talking about a different of about 20% or thereabouts here given how close we are to release that amused me. Usually they have a more concrete number ala the $45M projection everywhere for Onward when it came out, though I'm aware that animation is still among the more up in the air genres during the pandemic recovery given that it's the genre that's been the face of the streaming sacrifices for the most part since.

True, and they seem to usually base what they publish on whatever the studio and/or other tracking firms pass along to them (or they pull from them without crediting).

[Tinalera]

and here's just a comparison of Minions which is still a couple weeks out

 

Minions

SW/Toronto Ontario 

Thurs/Fri June 30/July 1 (taken June 15)

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	14	56	56	7133	7189	0.78
Fri	15	77	99	21958	22057	0.45

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Yep, that's why the numbers don't add up.  150 shows in other chains

I pulled 135 of the 150 (the others don't have reserved seats) and it's not looking good.  I'll try to get updates at show time as well as MTC3

 

Shows: 135

Sold: 7,652/33,144  (23.09%)

Gross: $130,457

[Porthos]

On 6/14/2022 at 9:11 AM, Tinalera said:

Attempted Comp time! Im using JW3 as my comp because its only one I have for T-3 having just started this fun (ahahahah) exercise (Yes its a horrible and not really applicable comp-but....Lab work lol)

 

JW3 to Lightyear was a WHOPPING 11.85 percent at T-3

JW3 made 59 million opening Thurs/Fri 

11.85 percent of 59 million is 6.9

So that would make it x11.85 59 million (6.9)-sound about right?

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Comp

JW3 .849X59 million (5.0 million) (again I have no other comps for day to day. Minions will be my first real start of comps at t-7 with Lightyear.

 

 

 

 

and

 

 

(congrats on joining the Compin' Crew in other words 👍)

[BruiseCruise]

$200 million budget for Lightyear according to Variety

[Old Spice]

Full report tomorrow, but my theater is going all in on Lightyear for Father's Day weekend. Sunday has 22 screenings with shows starting as early as 8:55 AM. JW has 12 and TG has 9, with Everything, Everywhere and The Thing 40th Anniversary re-release (🤔) each getting a couple. Sunday sales are so far are decent with 45 tix sold (compared to 28 for JW and 55 for TG), but LY has way more room for growth thanks to its huge seat advantage.

 

Preview night is looking solid with 71 tix sold, which puts it just 14 behind Sonic's final, and Friday is already roughly 2x Thursday at this point.

[katnisscinnaplex]

37 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I pulled 135 of the 150 (the others don't have reserved seats) and it's not looking good.  I'll try to get updates at show time as well as MTC3

 

Shows: 135

Sold: 7,652/33,144  (23.09%)

Gross: $130,457

Added MTC3

 

Shows: 213

Sold: 11,812/56,899 (20.76%

Gross: $219,361

[Tinalera]

And Thor4 because why not.

 

Thor 4 July7/8 (taken June 15)

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	113	4363	21096	25459	17.14%
Fri	20	168	2362	36013	38375	6.16
ttl sold	6725	% avg	10.54%

 

Again that Thurs 17 percent just cruising vs Fri 6.16 (which isn't bad in itself)

 

And no, Sadly I do not not have t-20 something comps for Dr Strange2, so cannot compare them.

[Tinalera]

46 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

and

 

 

(congrats on joining the Compin' Crew in other words 👍)

Its certainly a new aspect to things Im still getting used to, but its fun. It will be more interesting as I accrue more comps as I do more films and with more T-dates....not sure Im ready yet do pull a heroic 20 (or 40 looking at you NOPE) T dates yet. Because my box office doesn't move much (though dang it if Thor4 isn't being pretty lively) in early presales. Will keep some records as I go but really will try and focus comps wise on T-7 dates. 

[keysersoze123]

Between MTC1/2 its around 300K and Another 300K for rest. Thinking walkups will take lightyear early BO above 1m.

 

[el sid]

Because I'm on vacation starting tomorrow this will be my last report for ca. 2 weeks.

Lightyear, counted today at 10am EST for Friday, June 17:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 172 (15 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 208 (24 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 63 (23 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 58 (14 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 38 (14 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 280 (14 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 416 (22 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.235.

Comps (all three counted on Wednesday for Friday): Jungle Cruise (35M OW) had 655 sold tickets (and 817 tickets one day later, on Thursday),

Sonic 2 (72.1M) had 1.484 sold tickets = 83% = 60M OW for Lightyear,

Free Guy (28.4M) had 452 sold tickets. That comp would mean almost 100M OW (at the moment) but I also doubt that Lightyear will have the same walk-ups.

And Ghostbusters: Afterlife (44M) had on Thursday for Friday 1.124 sold tickets.

So judging from my comps I would go with 70-75M.
 

Elvis had today 228 sold tickets for Friday.

Comp: Death on the Nile (12.9M OW, super bowl weekend) had on Monday of its release week 198 sold tickets.

Really not bad but still far under the expectations that I once had.

The Black Phone had today 170 sold tickets, also counted for Friday.

Comps: Old (16.9M OW) had on Monday of its release week 150 sold tickets

and Scream (30M) had with 10 days to go 253 sold tickets for Friday.

Also not bad. Unfortunately I will miss the jumps next week but it could do quite well IMO.
 

[M37]

For LY, the good news is that these low sales total are very likely impacted by the late sales start: the growth rate in total sales over the last two days in the tracking samples (+45%-60%) is on par with Venom , which is itself already a significant outlier (due in part to a weird advance ticket sale pattern). Should see final ticket totals at least double from T-2, if not wind up closer to 2.5x.  For comparison purposes, walk-up heavy JWD was "only" about +75% on average from T-2 to T-1Hr last week

 

Doubling from here would point to a preview number in the low to mid $6M range, which could mean a sub-$60M OW on the low end, but suspect we're going to see that increase on the higher end, so $7M+ for Thursday still very possible, though $8M would take a lot

 

Also, for the Wed early access show, at least in my view, a 6PM start is terrible event time for a family to plan dinner around, unless you want to pay like $100 to eat at the theater itself

 

 

 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/14/2022 at 3:02 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

149

2685

5.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

85

1243

6.84%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
658	108	17903	3.68%	15	135

 

AMCs sold	515
Cinemarks sold	51
Regals sold	53
Harkins sold	39

 

Wednesday

Total

174

27

2111

Overall

Grand Total

832

135

20014

 

3.85x Encanto T-2 (5.78M)

0.806x Ghostbusters T-2 (3.63M)

2.67x Free Guy T-2 (5.87M)

2.40x Jungle Cruise T-2 (6.49M)

Lightyear Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

198

2085

9.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

100

1425

7.02%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
862	204	19625	4.39%	15	156

 

AMCs sold	621
Cinemarks sold	96
Regals sold	60
Harkins sold	85

 

Wednesday

Total

297

123

2111

Overall

Grand Total

1159

327

21736

 

3.97x Encanto T-1 (5.95M)

0.840x Ghostbusters T-1 (3.78M)

2.70x Free Guy T-1 (5.93M)

2.49x Jungle Cruise T-1 (6.73M)