The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[thajdikt]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

Is that good? Doesn't seem that great to me. Didn't SM: NWH do about that in the first 24 hours?

 

Seems like BPWF's sputtering along. WOM will be okay but not enough to push the presales up a ton in the last couple of days, eh?

I don´t know how  this can not be good. NWH is a own thing and comparing to that is not useful. Considering this is a MCU movie that is maybe less frontloaded and could have strong walk-ins I would argue this is good. But I´m no insider and pretty new to this stuff.

Edited November 8, 2022 by thajdikt

[Verrows]

49 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

Roughly. Probably closer to $40M. 

That's got to be because of the very short presales window for NWH, right? 

[Verrows]

44 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Chill.

I won't presume to speak for Jedi but I don't think he's freaking out. He's just asking questions. A lot of us aren't as experienced reading all this data so we've got 1001 questions lol.

 

[GOGODanca]

10 minutes ago, Verrows said:

That's got to be because of the very short presales window for NWH, right? 

it was a mega event movie on par with the avengers movies sans endgame, i expect nothing to come close to it in presales anytime soon until kang dynasty

[Verrows]

11 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

it was a mega event movie on par with the avengers movies sans endgame, i expect nothing to come close to it in presales anytime soon until kang dynasty

Yep, makes sense.

[jedijake]

42 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

it was a mega event movie on par with the avengers movies sans endgame, i expect nothing to come close to it in presales anytime soon until kang dynasty

Or the next Spidey movie if he faces Tom Hardy's Venom.

 

Or Deadpool with Jackman.

 

Or the next Star Wa.....nevermind LOL.

Edited November 9, 2022 by jedijake

[XXR & Friends]

8 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Or the next Spidey movie if he faces Tom Hardy's Venom.

 

Or Deadpool with Jackman.

 

Or the next Star Wa.....nevermind LOL.

 

Venom vs TH Spider-Man won't do half the presales of NWH.

 

I expect Deadpool 3 to have presales similar to MoM. 

 

At this juncture, the next SW film will be after Kang Dynasty anyway 

[Issac Newton]

From Deadline Hollywood -

 

Advance ticket sales through Sunday for Disney-Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever stand at $45M, about 20% behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness at the same point in time and 40% ahead of Thor: Love & Thunder.

 

Doctor Strange 2 before its domestic opening of $187.4M had $85M in advance sales, while Thor: Love & Thunder had banked $48M of its $144.1M domestic opening by its preview Thursday. Before debuting to $202M over 3-days in February 2018, Black Panther had $55M in advance tickets.

[jedijake]

People keep saying that Friday and Saturday's numbers are very strong. Yet, I haven't seen any numbers or evidence to show that.

[XXR & Friends]

18 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

From Deadline Hollywood -

 

Advance ticket sales through Sunday for Disney-Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever stand at $45M, about 20% behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness at the same point in time and 40% ahead of Thor: Love & Thunder.

 

Doctor Strange 2 before its domestic opening of $187.4M had $85M in advance sales, while Thor: Love & Thunder had banked $48M of its $144.1M domestic opening by its preview Thursday. Before debuting to $202M over 3-days in February 2018, Black Panther had $55M in advance tickets.

 

Based on those numbers, WF would converge at $68M in advanced sales. If WF hits that but has a similar previews number to L&T, we could be looking at $165M+ FSS. 

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, jedijake said:

People keep saying that Friday and Saturday's numbers are very strong. Yet, I haven't seen any numbers or evidence to show that.

 

The info from Deadline is evidence, if nothing else. WF presales are running 40% ahead of L&T while tracking in this thread indicates Thursday previews is running essentially on par with L&T at a similar point in the process. That majority of that 40% difference is coming from FSS. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by K'uk'ulkan XXR

[grey ghost]

How frontloaded was the first BP opening weekend?

[Menor the Destroyer]

17 minutes ago, jedijake said:

People keep saying that Friday and Saturday's numbers are very strong. Yet, I haven't seen any numbers or evidence to show that.

I've been posting Marcus numbers with very strong Friday numbers. You can go back in the thread yesterday and see. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1195

4265

28.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

858

2758

31.11%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6228	1101	39106	15.93%	15	294

 

AMCs sold	3387
Cinemarks sold	1255
Regals sold	721
Harkins sold	865

 

 

0.864x Thor L&T T-3 (25.05M)

0.576x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (20.74M)

1.14x Batman T-3 (24.59M)

2.77x Eternals T-3 (26.27M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1273

4265

29.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

896

2758

32.49%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6813	585	38904	17.51%	15	294

 

AMCs sold	3604
Cinemarks sold	1359
Regals sold	854
Harkins sold	996

 

0.858x Thor L&T T-2 (24.89M)

0.574x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (20.66M)

1.09x Batman T-2 (23.54M)

2.73x Eternals T-2 (25.97M)

[jedijake]

19 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

Based on those numbers, WF would converge at $68M in advanced sales. If WF hits that but has a similar previews number to L&T, we could be looking at $165M+ FSS. 

Is that FSS including Thursday previews?

[jedijake]

12 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I've been posting Marcus numbers with very strong Friday numbers. You can go back in the thread yesterday and see. 

I've seen Marcus and Alamo numbers. In all honesty, I don't know what to make of the Marcus numbers. Alamo has been over-indexing throughout.

Edited November 9, 2022 by jedijake

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex [+3 days of sales]

 

T-3 Thursday(204 showings): 4647(+1115)/44942

0.603x Thor L&T T-3 (17.50M)

0.363x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (13.06M)

0.718x Batman T-3 (15.50M)

2.15x Eternals T-3 (20.42M)

 

T-4 Friday(312 showings): 4027(+1261)/71699

0.821x Thor L&T T-4 (33.29M)

0.454x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (24.83M)

0.958x Batman T-4 (33.53M)

2.25x Eternals T-4 (48.01M)

 

T-5 Saturday(319 showings): 2519(+872)/73714

0.879x Thor L&T T-5 (37.00M)

0.443x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (25.62M)

1.10x Batman T-5 (47.67M)

2.52x Eternals T-5 (60.76M)

 

T-6 Sunday(297 showings): 661(+277)/69732

0.653x Thor L&T T-6 (21.23M)

0.429x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (16.67M)

1.21x Batman T-6 (41.41M)

2.59x Eternals T-6 (42.33M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

 

T-2 Thursday(223 showings): 5226(+579)/48973

0.592x Thor L&T T-2 (17.17M)

0.371x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (13.36M)

0.693x Batman T-2 (14.97M)

2.09x Eternals T-2 (19.89M)

 

T-3 Friday(338 showings): 4879(+852)/76078

0.857x Thor L&T T-3 (34.75M)

0.468x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (25.62M)

0.930x Batman T-3 (32.55M)

2.13x Eternals T-3 (45.43M)

 

T-4 Saturday(348 showings): 2979(+460)/78720

0.903x Thor L&T T-4 (38.03M)

0.438x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (25.32M)

1.00x Batman T-4 (43.35M)

2.31x Eternals T-4 (55.79M)

 

T-5 Sunday(329 showings): 820(+159)/75025

0.710x Thor L&T T-5 (23.07M)

0.469x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (18.22M)

1.13x Batman T-5 (38.72M)

2.41x Eternals T-5 (39.38M)

[GOGODanca]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

How frontloaded was the first BP opening weekend?

$25.2 m preview went to $202 m opening over 3 days and 242m over 4 day holiday weekend

[XXR & Friends]

7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Is that FSS including Thursday previews?

 

No, FSS stands for Friday-Saturday-Sunday and is a way we reference the "true" weekend without previews. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

 

T-3 Thursday(348 showings): 19855(+3297)/43127 ATP: $15.82

1.12x Thor L&T T-3 (32.39M)

0.856x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (30.83M)

1.42x Batman T-3 (25.02M, Thurs only)

 

T-4 Friday(519 showings): 23627(+~4000)/61805 ATP: $15.25

1.51x Thor L&T T-4 (61.08M)

1.07x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (58.40M)

1.55x Batman T-4 (54.23M)

 

T-5 Saturday(527 showings): 22475(+5380)/65757 ATP: $15.11

1.54x Thor L&T T-5 (64.85M)

0.955x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (55.19M)

1.38x Batman T-5 (59.89M)

 

T-6 Sunday(501 showings): 13221(+3162)/61071 ATP: $15.01

1.49x Thor L&T T-6 (48.57M)

0.966x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (37.56M)

1.59x Batman T-6 (54.19M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(383 showings): 21505(+1650)/46448 ATP: $15.80

1.13x Thor L&T T-2 (32.78M)

0.837x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (30.13M)

1.34x Batman T-2 (23.66M, Thurs only)

 

T-3 Friday(623 showings): 27443(+~3000)/73383 ATP: $15.25

1.59x Thor L&T T-3 (64.35M)

1.06x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (58.06M)

1.47x Batman T-3 (51.47M)

 

T-4 Saturday(638 showings): 24785(+2310)/77326 ATP: $15.06

1.52x Thor L&T T-4 (63.85M)

0.904x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (52.27M)

1.27x Batman T-4 (54.78M)

 

T-5 Sunday(625 showings): 15036(+1815)/73790 ATP: $15.01

1.48x Thor L&T T-5 (48.17M)

0.947x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (36.83M)

1.46x Batman T-5 (49.97M)

 

Yesterday some of the Friday showings in a region were bugged or something and didn't show up. Didn't realize until today, so it really should've been around +4000 for the 3 days sales of Friday yesterday and around +3000 for today.