The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos can you do a quick and dirty of Transformers please. MTC1 sales are good enough for your check

 

 

Track isn't so long/hard, but it's finding a meaningful comp.  But, sure, we'll see.

[keysersoze123]

19 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

expecting 250-260. 18-19M FRI.

Finished at - 280779/1177341 4460943.71 6713 shows. 

 

At least walkups today were better than yesterday. 

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Track isn't so long/hard, but it's finding a meaningful comp.  But, sure, we'll see.

Fast X, Shazam, Black Adam and JWD will do.

 

For Shazam and BA can do first x days instead of T-x days since they opened t-21

Edited May 20, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

On 5/18/2023 at 4:00 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC2 previews - 34039/457162 497497.99 2999 shows. 

 

This is between T-8 and T-7 number. Its definitely stronger than FX but weaker than Spidey as MTC1. Let us see how the final week goes. 

Mermaid MTC2

Wednesday - 2746/19045 44415.50 101 shows

Previews - 36795/458995 536110.10 3020 shows +2756

 

Weird that Wednesday sales are so low. Then again MTC2 is more walkup driven and so let us see how things go in the final week. On previews its better than FX :-) Avatar was around 73526 for T-7. This is between T-7 and T-6. So its doing worse at MTC2 relative to MTC1. 

 

@Menor Reborn Do you have any comps for this number. 

 

F2 MTC2 T-7 - 43638/386309 2427 shows +5362 // F2 had 7PM previews start and presales were heavily skewed towards weekend. Previews sales were way lower than Saturday. 

Edited May 20, 2023 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 14666/34974 316142.34 153 shows +503

Previews(T-7) -  52726/916969 913146.02 5592 shows  +3312

Friday - 58139/1039121 961781.89 5731 shows +5066

 

We are into final week now. At least the pace is accelerating. Let us see if this can pull in a Venom kind of final week. 

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 15274/34974 328753.34 153 shows +608

Previews(T-6) - 57056/917679 982771.20 5594 shows +4330

Friday - 64530/1038952 1062788.96 5731 shows +6391

 

Comps

A2 - 113853

JWD - 88453

 

Its amping up. I am expecting it to slow down tomorrow but start the final surge on Sunday. Monday has double boost with reviews. Let us see how things go. 

[keysersoze123]

On 5/18/2023 at 8:57 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-14) - 74637/736262 1342702.79 3921 shows // +2595

 

Now new comps. Similar to A2 but It wont be able to sustain that pace until closer to release. 

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-13) - 77523/737743 1391177.09 3928 shows // +2886

 

pace is similar to A2 in ticket sold. I think its going for 15m previews from this number. But its early and most of the big action will start from Memorial day.

 

Edit: 

MTC2 Previews - 37403/402513 548265.82 2475 shows

 

MTC2 is weaker but show count is also really low.  

Edited May 20, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Immortal]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC2

Wednesday - 2746/19045 44415.50 101 shows

Previews - 36795/458995 536110.10 3020 shows +2756

 

Weird that Wednesday sales are so low. Then again MTC2 is more walkup driven and so let us see how things go in the final week. On previews its better than FX 🙂 Avatar was around 73526 for T-7. This is between T-7 and T-6. So its doing worse at MTC2 relative to MTC1. 

 

@Menor Reborn Do you have any comps for this number. 

 

F2 MTC2 T-7 - 43638/386309 2427 shows +5362 // F2 had 7PM previews start and presales were heavily skewed towards weekend. Previews sales were way lower than Saturday. 

I think F2 was way too pre-sales heavy film because in @Porthos data comps all 3 summer 2019 Disney films are pointing to a similar number whereas F2 is just way too low(-28%) compared to the average of those.

 

Maybe you're right that it will behave like Frozen 2 because of similar expected demographics, but it should also behave a bit like Aladdin/TLK/TS4 because it still is a film that "nobody" asked for, and also usually Black led blockbusters do more than what pre-sales are pointing towards.

 

In short I think this film will shoot past Frozen 2 comp

[Porthos]

 

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report — Terrible Comps Edition [T-20]

609/19443[2.83% sold]

 

At T-20:

0.23378x the sales of TGM         [4.50m] [started at T-23]

0.30742x the sales of JWD         [5.53m] [started at T-42]

0.76125x the sales of Fast X       [5.71m] [started at T-98]

1.82883x the sales of Shazam 2 [6.22m] [started at T-28]

 

After 10 days of pre-sales:

0.69521x the sales of NTTD        [4.31m]

1.21315x the sales of GB:A          [5.46m]

0.59126x the sales of BA             [4.49m]

0.49472x the sales of Wick 4     [4.40m]

 

Anyone wants to glean anything from that, be my guest. 👍

Edited May 24, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	18803	20789	1986	9.55%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	870
Total Seats Sold Today	94

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	99.35		116	1999		0/96	13542/15541	12.86%		6409	30.99%		10.67m
JWD	76.53		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	18.11%		13.78m
BA	217.76		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	44.19%		16.55m
A2	70.95		104	2799		0/142	18539/21338	13.12%		8986	22.10%		12.06m
Wick 4	172.55		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	36.45%		15.36m
GOTG3	55.26		47	3594		0/203	25501/29095	12.35%		8363	23.75%		9.67m
TLM	130.06		87	1527		0/154	21187/22714	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       243/6453  [3.77% sold]
Matinee:    113/2663  [4.24% | 5.69% of all tickets sold]
------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.17693x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-14 [16.24m]    
AtSV = 0.74062x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-14 [19.59m]    
AtSV = 1.36023x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-14 [13.30m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	18720	20789	2069	9.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

83

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	99.19		87	2086		0/96	13455/15541	13.42%		6409	32.28%		10.65m
JWD	76.43		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	18.87%		13.76m
BA	212.21		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	46.04%		16.13m
A2	70.21		148	2947		0/145	18537/21484	13.72%		8986	23.02%		11.94m
Wick 4	168.07		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	37.98%		14.96m
GOTG3	56.27		83	3677		0/203	25377/29054	12.66%		8363	24.74%		9.85m
TLM	127.40		97	1624		0/154	21095/22719	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:        266/6453  [4.12% sold]
Matinee:    120/2663  [4.51% | 5.80% of all tickets sold]
-----
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.19045x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-13 [16.43m]    
AtSV = 0.74013x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-13 [19.58m]    
AtSV = 1.3055x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-13     [12.76m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	21392	23814	2422	10.17%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	314
Total Seats Sold Today	170

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	264.99		99	914		0/92	12023/12937	7.07%		3951	61.30%		16.56m
JWD	62.34		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	22.09%		11.22m
BA	173.37		123	1397		0/152	21562/22959	6.08%		4494	53.89%		13.18m
Scream VI	240.04		117	1009		0/77	8738/9747	10.35%		3134	77.28%		13.68m
Wick 4	138.88		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	44.46%		12.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        373/5605  [6.65% sold]
Matinee:         88/621  [14.17% | 3.63% of all tickets sold]
3D:             279/3948  [7.07% | 11.52% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.89872x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [15.28m]    
TLM = 1.05385x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [14.54m]    
TLM = 0.55859x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [14.77m]    
TLM = 1.07252x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [10.48m]    

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	173	21977	24550	2573	10.48%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	5
Total Net Seats Added Today	736
Total Seats Sold Today	151

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	246.46		130	1044		0/92	11893/12937	8.07%		3951	65.12%		15.40m
JWD	61.70		285	4170		0/223	23587/27757	15.02%		10966	23.46%		11.11m
BA	169.17		124	1521		0/163	22454/23975	6.34%		4494	57.25%		12.86m
Scream VI	240.02		63	1072		0/77	8675/9747	11.00%		3134	82.10%		13.68m
Wick 4	135.56		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	47.23%		12.07m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        390/5605  [6.96% sold]
Matinee:         93/621  [14.98% | 3.61% of all tickets sold]
3D:            298/3948  [7.55% | 11.58% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.88343x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [15.16m]    
TLM = 1.02903x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-6      [14.20m]    
TLM = 0.54273x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-6     [14.36m]    
TLM = 1.04068x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-6       [10.17m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Immortal said:

I think F2 was way too pre-sales heavy film because in @Porthos data comps all 3 summer 2019 Disney films are pointing to a similar number whereas F2 is just way too low(-28%) compared to the average of those.

 

Maybe you're right that it will behave like Frozen 2 because of similar expected demographics, but it should also behave a bit like Aladdin/TLK/TS4 because it still is a film that "nobody" asked for, and also usually Black led blockbusters do more than what pre-sales are pointing towards.

 

In short I think this film will shoot past Frozen 2 comp

 

Didn't analyze it all that carefully at the time due to reasons, but I just think it massively overperformed in Sacramento for whatever reason (even more than TS4 did at the time).  Have to wait for the final comps to come in, mind, before I know for certain, as I didn't have anything to comp F2 against due to the 'rona arriving in short order.

 

But it is useful as a worst-case scenario/Sacto overperform type comp.  Even so, it (along with all of the other pre-'rona flicks) are EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL for a reason.  More than one, in some cases.

Edited May 20, 2023 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report — Terrible Comps Edition [T-20]

609/21490 [2.83% sold]

 

At T-20:

0.23378x the sales of TGM         [4.50m] [started at T-23]

0.30742x the sales of JWD         [5.53m] [started at T-42]

0.76125x the sales of Fast X       [5.71m] [started at T-98]

1.82883x the sales of Shazam 2 [6.22m] [started at T-28]

 

After 10 days of pre-sales:

0.69521x the sales of NTTD        [4.31m]

1.21315x the sales of GB:A          [5.46m]

0.59126x the sales of BA             [4.49m]

0.49472x the sales of Wick 4     [4.40m]

 

Anyone wants to glean anything from that, be my guest. 👍

these comps do look very close.

[M37]

13 hours ago, joselowe said:

If it continues at the current rate do you think 100 million OW is possible or will be lower? JW4 debuted with $74 million OW

Its pacing similarly to JW4 for Thursday, but with ~40% more sales, and should leg out (IM) better too. I think a $100M 3-day OW is more likely than not at this point

 

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report — Terrible Comps Edition [T-20]

609/21490 [2.83% sold]

 

At T-20:

0.23378x the sales of TGM         [4.50m] [started at T-23]

0.30742x the sales of JWD         [5.53m] [started at T-42]

0.76125x the sales of Fast X       [5.71m] [started at T-98]

1.82883x the sales of Shazam 2 [6.22m] [started at T-28]

 

After 10 days of pre-sales:

0.69521x the sales of NTTD        [4.31m]

1.21315x the sales of GB:A          [5.46m]

0.59126x the sales of BA             [4.49m]

0.49472x the sales of Wick 4     [4.40m]

 

Anyone wants to glean anything from that, be my guest. 👍

That sure looks to me like something in range of $5-$6M Thursday, $35-$50M OW, or nothing close to the $80M the trades put out. Maybe it plays more like Shazam, where whatever fan base existed has largely eroded and it becomes a more casual/walk-up friendly audience, but can't really even optimistically squint my way to $60M from those numbers

 

In 2017, Fate of Furious made $99M OW/$226M DOM, and now 6 years later Fast X is gonna land at like $68/$165M (-30%). That same year, Transformers Last Knight only nabbed $79M in first week (Wed opening), and $130M DOM, and with that same reduction it would be around ~$42M OW/$91M DOM ... which is basically the mid-point of where the current ProBO forecast sits.

 

We'll see what happens, but not expecting any surprise here

Edited May 20, 2023 by M37

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Its pacing similarly to JW4 for Thursday, but with ~40% more sales, and should leg out (IM) better too. I think a $100M 3-day OW is more likely than not at this point

Which movie you are comparing to JW4?

[filmlover]

17 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I just don’t see the same level of buzz for Boogeyman as I did for Black Phone, which opened to $23m. 

Yeah, the buzz does feel a bit on the quiet side for The Boogeyman. Hard to stand out amid all these expensive and shiny tentpoles I guess. Think it's headed for a $40-50M total, still another streaming-to-theatrical win with those results.

[M37]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Which movie you are comparing to JW4?

Mermaid. The current pace is falling into the grouping that includes it, along with Black Adam and Scream VI (though for somewhat different reasons)

[M37]

Finally got around to delving into Spider-Verse numbers (I admire the stamina of the trackers who can track daily numbers) and sure looks like a mid to high teens preview incoming to me

 

The comps with Jurassic World: Dominion have been remarkably steady over the last week, and so that's going to be my default expectation for pace moving forward, until/unless shown otherwise. Here's how those currently stack up, and the range over the last week:

• Alpha (PSM adj*) = $17.63M [17.38-17.63]
• Philly = $17.85M [17.32-18.18]
• Drafthouse = $17.38M [17.24-17.38]
• Sacto^ = $13.76 [13.76-14.17]

*Adjusted from a PSM of ~$71/tix for JWD (Alpha underindex) to the more typical ~$57/tix of most tentpoles

^The poor reviews really killed JWD Thursday in Sacto; up until T-3, it was pacing to finish 10-15% higher than it ultimately did

 

Will reevaluate at T-7, but with the Little Mermaid opening, Memorial Day weekend throwing off the usual final week sales flow, and lack of a default comp, probably going to be more uncertainty that usual. But even with a CBM-ish lower IM, over $100M OW still very much in play

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Mermaid. The current pace is falling into the grouping that includes it, along with Black Adam and Scream VI (though for somewhat different reasons)

Interesting. I will add comps starting today. Its thursday sales are about 10% higher. I am expecting slightly lower ATP for mermaid compared to R rated JW4. 

 

Otherwise I dont have a great comp. Maverick opened at the same weekend but it was a different beast all together. Other big non MCU opener which was backloaded was JWD. I dont think this will come close but relative surge should be similar. 

 

Final 6 days for JWD added tad over 166K. Let us see what LM does. Wednesday will add about 7-10K and rest will be for thursday. 

 

[keysersoze123]

Mermaid MTC1 Sat - 56679/1075139 833729.37 5947 shows. 

 

Not bad, its not far from Friday and should have a solid increase. F2 was almost at 100K for saturday by now. Presales for that was so skewed that back then folks believed in 150m+ OW even with double digit previews. it did not finish that well and OW finished below 130m. But it had thanksgiving in its 2nd week and had a fantastic hold. So Mermaid wont be anything like F2.  

[M37]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Interesting. I will add comps starting today. Its thursday sales are about 10% higher. I am expecting slightly lower ATP for mermaid compared to R rated JW4. 

 

Otherwise I dont have a great comp. Maverick opened at the same weekend but it was a different beast all together. Other big non MCU opener which was backloaded was JWD. I dont think this will come close but relative surge should be similar. 

 

Final 6 days for JWD added tad over 166K. Let us see what LM does. Wednesday will add about 7-10K and rest will be for thursday. 

 

What I've found is that when looking at growth rate is the volume of sales becomes mostly irrelevant, because its already relative to the past sales. Adding 20K off a 200K base (so +10%) is the same as adding 5K from 50K, so if you can match pace, then the expected raw number of sales can be worked out

 

From T-7 to T-F in Alpha/MTC1, JWD increased by +210% (held back by poor reviews), JW4 was +233%, and Fast X was also about +230%. I have Mermaid finishing in or slightly above that range (+210-250%), but also won't be surprised if it goes higher (though probably still under 200K finish)