The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think anything is possible. Next week the focus will be on Spiderverse. That is looking really good. Today its going to increase again from yesterday for sure. So I am not expecting major acceleration unless we get reactions/reviews for Transformers. 

They did already release reactions which were decent, but releasing at the exact same time as Spiderverse reactions kinda buried them headline-wise from what I can see. 

[cooldude97]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think anything is possible. Next week the focus will be on Spiderverse. That is looking really good. Today its going to increase again from yesterday for sure. So I am not expecting major acceleration unless we get reactions/reviews for Transformers. 

Reactions were 2 days ago, they were positive but like 7/10 positive 

[JpTransformers]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Acho que tudo é possível. Na próxima semana o foco será no Spiderverse. Isso está parecendo muito bom. Hoje vai aumentar novamente em relação a ontem, com certeza. Portanto, não estou esperando uma grande aceleração, a menos que tenhamos reações/avaliações de Transformers. 

transformers reactions should come out tomorrow

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/watch/singapore-gears-host-world-premiere-transformers-film-video-3518401

[cooldude97]

but if Rise of the Beasts can hit a 50M+ opening and GA reception is good then maybe it's dailys and third weekend can push its legs past the last knight's domestic total and possibly around $150M DOM (but this is the best case scenario IMO)

[Flip]

26 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

but if Rise of the Beasts can hit a 50M+ opening and GA reception is good then maybe it's dailys and third weekend can push its legs past the last knight's domestic total and possibly around $150M DOM (but this is the best case scenario IMO)

Hard to see 3x legs without extremely stellar reception (unlikely), considering it has Spiderverse the week before and Flash the week after, two direct competitors 

[cooldude97]

23 minutes ago, Flip said:

Hard to see 3x legs without extremely stellar reception (unlikely), considering it has Spiderverse the week before and Flash the week after, two direct competitors 

that's why it's called best case scenario and not "realistic scenario" 

[M37]

17 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1 Previews Final - 177526/957474 2975651.02 5908 shows. 

 

I wont have MTC2 until morning but based on sample I have seen it looks like 10m previews today. With the early shows yesterday I am expecting 11m previews estimated. 

Finished slightly ahead of the 170-175K target range I had for $11M total including EA shows. And yet ...

 

6 hours ago, Shawn said:

$10.3m from Disney, includes $850K from Wed

 

At only ~$9.45M for true Thursday, that's a decently strong over-index for MTC1, as well as some other tracking markets, and conversely, and under-index elsewhere. And then I remembered, Lightyear did the same last summer,  (pages 320-324 or so). I didn't go thread diving to find and check Strange World, but would guess it showed the same

 

In each instance, some of the mid-tier markets like Jax/Ral/Pho for LY and Denver for LM were showing lower comp numbers, but were glossed over or presumed (at least by me) to just be naturally higher variability in those markets, to be compensated by over-performance in untracked regions. And even within larger samples with higher final comp values, the walk-up rate for each release appeared to be dampened.

 

In isolation, each of these outcomes could be chalked up to unique factors about the releases themselves, state of the market, etc. But taken together, I can't help but believe its showing a trend, and for tracking purposes only*, we should probably acknowledge the elephant in the room (and more importantly start making adjustments for it): Disney's family product (animation & LA, excluding MCU) is showing a lot of weakness beyond the big cities & markets that encompass the majority of MTCs and some tracking samples. Whatever one may think of such an effect, its getting harder to ignore that it appears to be a limiting factor. (And yes, this probably means Elemental is tracking a bit below where current sales numbers have it sitting)

 

*I really don't want to open a can of worms - especially in this thread - getting into the details and/or underlying cause, but if the goal it get to the right number for Thursday and beyond, then outside factors have to been given their due weight, no differently than say a Day & Date streaming release would

[ZackM]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

how is that possible. If I have already booked the tickets at some rate, they cannot come back and ask for more money. 

They're not, but I'm not tracking individual ticket prices, only the standard price for a given show.  So if it changed at some point, my data will reflect that price for all tickets for that show, not just the tickets sold after the price change.

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

this probably means Elemental is tracking a bit below where current sales numbers have it sitting)

That is not possible as current sales are almost nothing. I dont think negative previews are possible :-)

 

Overall I agree with Mermaid underperforming outside big cities in coasts. It was confirmed from @Inceptionzq numbers for Denver. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/25/2023 at 3:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

T-2 Saturday

452 Showings

14123

+1931

58412

0.823	Avatar 2 T-2	36.47M
0.866	JW Dominion T-2	40.59M
2.447	Ghostbusters T-2	40.23M

 

T-3 Sunday

420 Showings

9473

+1263

55097

0.871	Avatar 2 T-3	31.83M
0.985	JW Dominion T-3	38.02M
3.358	Ghostbusters T-3	36.67M

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Saturday

453 Showings

17688

+3565

58465

0.824

Avatar 2 T-1

36.52M

2.323

Ghostbusters T-1

38.20M

 

T-2 Sunday

423 Showings

11441

+1968

55238

0.863

Avatar 2 T-2

31.55M

3.045

Ghostbusters T-2

33.25M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

485

3200

15.16%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

373

1875

19.89%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2254	160	22850	9.86%	13	123

 

0.383x Thor L&T T-7 (11.10M)

0.524x Batman T-7 (11.31M)

1.26x Eternals T-7 (12.00M)

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

520

3200

16.25%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

384

1875

20.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2396	142	22848	10.49%	13	123

 

0.741x Guardians 3 T-6 (12.97M)

0.533x Batman T-6 (11.51M)

1.29x Eternals T-6 (12.26M)

[noobmaster69]

2 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

 

I think it's as good as the original Avengers. Fight me. 

Wow,Justice League v Avengers. Art is subjective, I respect your taste, I don't want to fight.But objectively speaking，zsjl take what to win Avengers , low streaming views, mediocre disc sales, mixed critics, weird score ratio, maybe OscarsFanFavorite? I don't think this is the mainstream point of most people.

Edited May 26, 2023 by noobmaster69

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

T-7 Thursday

158 Showings

6280

+695

23899

ATP:

15.93

0.441	Thor L&T T-7	12.79M
0.576	Batman Thurs only T-7	10.14M
1.144	Eternals  T-7	10.87M

 

T-8 Friday

182 Showings

5616

+408

29572

ATP:

15.91

0.471	Thor L&T T-8	19.08M
0.520	Batman T-8	18.23M
1.110	Eternals  T-8	23.69M

 

T-9 Saturday

173 Showings

5297

+284

28500

0.466	Thor L&T T-9	19.62M
0.491	Batman T-9	21.26M
1.042	Eternals  T-9	25.14M

 

T-10 Sunday

156 Showings

3330

+191

25682

0.523	Thor L&T T-10	16.98M
0.684	Batman T-10	23.35M
1.131	Eternals T-10	18.46M

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

T-6 Thursday

161 Showings

7077

+797

24036

ATP:

15.92

0.627

Guardians 3 T-6

10.97M

0.612	Batman Thurs only T-6	10.77M
1.237	Eternals  T-6	11.75M

 

T-7 Friday

186 Showings

6336

+720

29752

ATP:

15.88

0.638

Guardians 3 T-7

19.52M

0.547	Batman T-7	19.18M
1.172	Eternals  T-7	25.00M

 

T-8 Saturday

177 Showings

5639

+342

28680

0.521

Guardians 3 T-8

20.25M

0.488	Batman T-8	21.12M
1.065	Eternals  T-8	25.68M

 

T-9 Sunday

159 Showings

3598

+268

25817

0.595

Guardians 3 T-9

18.70M

0.673	Batman T-9	22.99M
1.163	Eternals T-9	18.98M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

187

2188

8.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

94

1179

7.97%

 

Monday: 180(+7)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
584	75	20180	2.89%	13	106

 

0.374x Ant-Man 3 Day 3 (6.55M)

2.20x Black Adam Day 3 (16.69M)

0.208x Thor L&T T-21 (6.05M)

0.850x Eternals T-21 (8.07M)

0.628x Black Widow T-21 (8.29M)

 

Fully switching over to T-X comps starting tomorrow.

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

203

2188

9.28%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

102

1179

8.65%

 

Monday: 195(+15)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
650	66	20180	3.22%	13	106

 

0.310x Ant-Man T-20 (5.42M)

0.221x Thor L&T T-20 (6.41M)

0.864x Eternals T-20 (8.21M)

0.659x Black Widow T-20 (8.70M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-21 Thursday

117 Showings

1637

+184

19281

ATP:

15.86

0.233	Ant-Man 3 Day 3	4.07M
1.953	Black Adam Day 3	14.85M
0.175	Thor L&T T-21	5.07M

0.578

Eternals T-21

5.49M

 

T-22 Friday

155 Showings

942

+104

26123

ATP:

16.20

0.195 Ant-Man 3 Day 3 5.64M 1.534 Black Adam Day 3 29.29M 0.139 Thor L&T T-22 5.62M

0.434

Eternals T-22

9.27M

 

T-23 Saturday

149 Showings

816

+88

24666

ATP:

15.25

0.172	Ant-Man 3 Day 3	5.84M
1.200	Black Adam Day 3	28.45M
0.135	Thor L&T T-23	5.70M

0.377

Eternals T-23

9.09M

 

T-24 Sunday

133 Showings

339

+50

22541

ATP:

14.50

0.200	Ant-Man 3 Day 3	5.16M
1.704	Black Adam Day 3	28.28M
0.118	Thor L&T T-24	3.85M

0.302

Eternals T-24

4.93M

 

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-20 Thursday

117 Showings

1782

+145

19278

ATP:

15.85

0.206

Ant-Man 3 T-20

3.60M

0.180

Thor L&T T-20

5.21M

0.586

Eternals T-20

5.57M

 

T-21 Friday

155 Showings

1008

+66

26119

ATP:

16.18

0.154

Ant-Man 3 T-21

4.44M

0.138

Thor L&T T-21

5.60M

0.421

Eternals T-21

8.99M

 

T-22 Saturday

149 Showings

891

+75

24662

ATP:

15.37

0.130

Ant-Man 3 T-22

4.40M

0.135

Thor L&T T-22

5.69M

0.396

Eternals T-22

9.56M

 

T-23 Sunday

133 Showings

363

+24

22538

ATP:

14.53

0.133

Ant-Man 3 T-23

3.44M

0.113

Thor L&T T-23

3.68M

0.275

Eternals T-23

4.49M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

96

2338

4.11%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

117

1365

8.57%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
407	22	20932	1.94%	13	104

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

97

2338

4.15%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

119

1365

8.72%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
420	13	20932	2.01%	13	104

 

0.380x JW Dominion T-34 (6.84M)

[keysersoze123]

@Inceptionzq can you also add Black Adam comps for Flash if you have them. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-35 Thursday

112 Showings

2755

+180

18367

ATP:

15.79

 

T-36 Friday

157 Showings

2218

+183

26292

ATP:

15.50

 

T-37 Saturday

158 Showings

1910

+129

26681

ATP:

14.82

 

T-38 Sunday

143 Showings

857

+53

24390

ATP:

14.48

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-34 Thursday

112 Showings

3143

+388

18364

ATP:

15.61

1.20

JW Dominion T-34

21.65M

 

T-35 Friday

157 Showings

2435

+217

26288

ATP:

15.47

1.29

JW Dominion T-35

53.64M

 

T-36 Saturday

158 Showings

2171

+261

26677

ATP:

14.78

1.12

JW Dominion T-36

52.28M

 

T-37 Sunday

143 Showings

992

+135

24386

ATP:

14.42

1.44

JW Dominion T-37

55.49M

[Inceptionzq]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Inceptionzq can you also add Black Adam comps for Flash if you have them. 

T-20 is 23 hours of sales for Black Adam, so I'm gonna wait a few days before adding it back.

[YSLDC]

 

🤑