The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[PrinceRico]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Even lower than DL. Did not expect that.

[Tinalera]

14 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I admit I wasn't quite expecting that as a forecast. 

 

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW BOP's official estimate is $115 with a $105-$125 range.

 

Something else to keep in mind as we close in on the weekend. There are marathon showings tonight and those will be included in the Thursday preview number. Don't know if that will have any impact on the OW multiplier but something to keep in the back of the mind, 

 

Looking at what everyone is posting i'm hoping for 18, but I could see it at 17-17.5 if the growth rate slows a little.

 

[Shawn Robbins]

22 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Even lower than DL. Did not expect that.

Deadline said $110M, which is just info passed along to them and/or they're reading from somewhere else. I include a full range and pinpoint in the BOP report, which is (slightly) higher than what Deadline cites.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

Deadline said $110M, which is just passed along to them. I include a full range and pinpoint in the BOP report, which is higher than Deadline (slightly).

 

Never mind "never read past the headline", nowadays it's "never read past the tweet".

[Porthos]

***ALERT***

 

Last night I noticed something odd with one of the two small non-reserved theaters I track suddenly and inexplicably yanked all showtimes for the three movies I am currently tracking.  Went and checked the corp site and while it wasn't updated with any new information it didn't have any showtimes past Thursday.  But I didn't update the info box at the time in case it was an error.  But I checked again today and sure enough:

 

Quote

Regal Davis 

×

Alert:

Regal Davis is closing May 4. You can still enjoy the best place to watch a movie at these nearby theatres: Regal Davis Holiday.

 

I had also done a check late last night of various news sources and not only didn't see a news story about this, but it wasn't on the list of potential Regal closures from back in January.  Near as I can tell, this is somewhat out of the blue.

 

Can't exactly call it a surprise as it was a small five auditorium theater that shared the Davis movie landscape with another small non-reserved Regal theater (Davis Holiday 6).  Combined they acted like an 11 auditorium theater for the Davis area.  When it didn't convert to reserved seating post-'rona I must admit to be surprised it ever reopened in the first place.

 

Being non-reserved I have no real idea how healthy the sales were there, though there was the super rare sellout every once in a while.  Can't have been that good if it shut its doors.  On the other hand, could be running afoul of leasing troubles, as was mentioned back in Jan when the closure story first broke.

 

Either way, I expect the lions share of whatever seats were sold at this theater to go to the other non-reserved seating theater close by, and thus be mostly a wash for tracking.  But some of them might go to the semi-nearby theater in Woodland and others might just say "fuck it all" and make the 15 minute drive up I-5 and go to the Downtown Sacramento theater (some might also go to theaters in Vacaville, but that's well out of my tracking range), and both of those are reserved seating theaters.

 

Partially posting this for the sheer news value but also posting it in case Sacto over-performs in the short run before things re-normalize.  

 

I'm not expecting much to change, but I'm allowing for the possibility it might.

[screambaby]

Am I wrong or are these estimates under the tracking here?

[Tinalera]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

***ALERT***

 

Last night I noticed something odd with one of the two small non-reserved theaters I track suddenly and inexplicably yanked all showtimes for the three movies I am currently tracking.  Went and checked the corp site and while it wasn't updated with any new information it didn't have any showtimes past Thursday.  But I didn't update the info box at the time in case it was an error.  But I checked again today and sure enough:

 

 

I had also done a check late last night of various news sources and not only didn't see a news story about this, but it wasn't on the list of potential Regal closures from back in January.  Near as I can tell, this is somewhat out of the blue.

 

Can't exactly call it a surprise as it was a small five auditorium theater that shared the Davis movie landscape with another small non-reserved Regal theater (Davis Holiday 6).  Combined they acted like an 11 auditorium theater for the Davis area.  When it didn't convert to reserved seating post-'rona I must admit to be surprised it ever reopened in the first place.

 

Being non-reserved I have no real idea how healthy the sales were there, though there was the super rare sellout every once in a while.  Can't have been that good if it shut its doors.  On the other hand, could be running afoul of leasing troubles, as was mentioned back in Jan when the closure story first broke.

 

Either way, I expect the lions share of whatever seats were sold at this theater to go to the other non-reserved seating theater close by, and thus be mostly a wash for tracking.  But some of them might go to the semi-nearby theater in Woodland and others might just say "fuck it all" and make the 15 minute drive up I-5 and go to the Downtown Sacramento theater (some might also go to theaters in Vacaville, but that's well out of my tracking range), and both of those are reserved seating theaters.

 

Partially posting this for the sheer news value but also posting it in case Sacto over-performs in the short run before things re-normalize.  

 

I'm not expecting much to change, but I'm allowing for the possibility it might.

Reminds me of the Cineplex started gobbling/closing of small theatres up here years ago. 

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

Kandahar T-23: 19.21% Awareness, 5.31 Interest

The Little Mermaid T-23: 61.14%, 5.92

The Machine T-23: 17.46%, 5.26

You Hurt My Feelings T-23: 14.49%, 4.67

Elemental T-44: 34.52%, 5.58

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-2: 58.19% Awareness, 6.54 Interest

Final Awareness: 7% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 25% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

Love Again T-2: 24.92% Awareness, 5.07 Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 41% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 20% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Book Club 2: The Next Chapter T-9: 26.52% Awareness, 4.64 Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 21% chance of 10M

 

Strays T-37: 23.40% Awareness, 5.59 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 81% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 43% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-37: 46.08% Awareness, 6.28 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 73% chance of 40M, 45% chance of 50M, 36% chance of 60M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 92% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 70M

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Fast X

 

THURSDAY

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	1509	28103	5.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 7:00pm EST}

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS 0

 

ATP - $13.60

 

Finally, a good jump. Thinking a few people saw the Open Road trailer today 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-15

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	1547	28103	5.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

38

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

ATP - $13.60

[PrinceRico]

How is TLM looking. Is 120+ possible?

[MovieMan89]

Below AM3 OW would be an unmitigated disaster that will send Disney into full blown panic mode with MCU. On the bright side, RT is looking stronger than I expected after the initial reviews. Bumped back into 80s when I would have thought it would be trending towards 60s by now. 

[PrinceRico]

2 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

FWIW BOP's official estimate is $115 with a $105-$125 range.

 

Something else to keep in mind as we close in on the weekend. There are marathon showings tonight and those will be included in the Thursday preview number. Don't know if that will have any impact on the OW multiplier but something to keep in the back of the mind, 

 

Looking at what everyone is posting i'm hoping for 18, but I could see it at 17-17.5 if the growth rate slows a little.

 

Well I guess the best we can hope for is 120 so Disney can say it over-performed. Just never though it would be this close to Ant Man of all movies. Really hope Disney goes back to making two MCU films a year so that people’s appetite can grow. Don’t think we will see WF numbers for a long time to come. 

[dobrevv]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Below AM3 OW would be an unmitigated disaster that will send Disney into full blown panic mode with MCU. On the bright side, RT is looking stronger than I expected after the initial reviews. Bumped back into 80s when I would have thought it would be trending towards 60s by now. 

they are already in panic mode,they are delaying stuff and changing all writers for upcoming movies 

[vafrow]

Per Reddit, it looks like Spiderverse tickets go on sale Monday. 

[PrinceRico]

Just now, vafrow said:

Per Reddit, it looks like Spiderverse tickets go on sale Monday. 

Nice. 

[RamblinRed]

2 hours ago, screambaby said:

Am I wrong or are these estimates under the tracking here?

Not really. They are on the conservative end of things, but not really out of range of what has been seen in the tracking data.

I think they are just trying to set it up so that if it gets to the 120-125M range they can say it was an over performance.

 

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Not really. They are on the conservative end of things, but not really out of range of what has been seen in the tracking data.

I think they are just trying to set it up so that if it gets to the 120-125M range they can say it was an over performance.

 

 

Gonna be hard to say "overperformance" when every tracking service was touting $130M just 3 weeks ago...

 

https://deadline.com/2023/04/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-box-office-projection-1235324366/

[JD Asencio]

2 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

Actualizaciones de quórum

Kandahar T-23: 19,21 % de conocimiento, 5,31 de interés

La Sirenita T-23: 61,14%, 5,92

La Máquina T-23: 17,46%, 5,26

Heriste mis sentimientos T-23: 14,49%, 4,67

Elemental T-44: 34,52%, 5,58

 

guardianes de la galaxia vol. 3 T-2: 58,19% Conocimiento, 6,54 Interés

Conciencia final: 7% de probabilidad de 100M

Interés final: 100% de probabilidad de 100M

Conciencia de DC/MCU: 25% de probabilidad de 100M

DC/MCU Interés: 100% de probabilidad de 100M

 

Love Again T-2: 24,92 % de conocimiento, 5,07 de interés

Conciencia final: 16% de probabilidad de 10M

Interés final: 41% de probabilidad de 10M

Original - Conciencia baja: 20% de probabilidad de 10M

Original - Interés bajo: 33 % de probabilidad de 10 millones

 

Club de lectura 2: El próximo capítulo T-9: 26,52 % de conocimiento, 4,64 de interés

Conciencia final: 16% de probabilidad de 10M

Interés final: 21% de probabilidad de 10M

 

Strays T-37: 23,40 % de conocimiento, 5,59 de interés

Conciencia T-30: 54% de probabilidad de 10M

T-30 Interés: 81% de probabilidad de 10M

Original - Conciencia baja: 43% de probabilidad de 10M

Original - Interés bajo: 50 % de probabilidad de 10 millones

 

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts T-37: 46,08 % de conocimiento, 6,28 de interés

Conciencia T-30: 100 % de probabilidad de 30 millones, 73 % de probabilidad de 40 millones, 45 % de probabilidad de 50 millones, 36 % de probabilidad de 60 millones

Interés T-30: 100 % de probabilidad de 40 millones, 92 % de probabilidad de 50 millones, 75 % de probabilidad de 70 millones

Conciencia de Tentpole: 100% de probabilidad de 40M, 50% de probabilidad de 50M

Tentpole Interest: 100% de probabilidad de 70M

Is this good for Transformers? I know the trailer came out recently, but awareness rose very little; bad sign i guess

[dudalb]

Looking ahead to June.

Outside events can impact movie box office; and if the US Default happens, and exonomic chaos ensues, people will just not be in the mood to spend any more then necessary, with entertainment taking a huge hit.