94th Academy Awards Discussion Thread | WHAT JUST HAPPENED

[Joel M]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

If Coda pulls it off, it will be a very similar run to Parasite, including peaking at literally the exact right time.

 

CODA's rise is still way weirder and more abrupt. I think it's because of how long this season has been and how late some of the biggest precursors put their awards, namely PGA and WGA.

 

Parasite had a steady rise all season long with reviews, critics awards, boxoffice and real-world buzz on its side. By nomination morning it was a clear threat and after that quickly became the clear alt to the big budget late breaking frontrunner. 

CODA I think by nomination morning was an early contender that many had written off and was just happy to actually be nominated. I don't believe anyone had it higher than 5th in the lineup a month ago. And now it's winning stuff a week before the oscars while the voting is happening. That's why the backlash has be so OTT and immediate. They know they 're running out of time lol.

 

If it actually ends up winning it will be the weirdest path to victory since I've start following the oscar race. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

CODA is the biggest stat-breaker of all-time. No Directing nom. No DGA nom. No Editing nom.

 

Apple wisely kept it as the sleeper in the summer after Sundance. Campaigned it carefully to SAG voters. While Netflix oversaturated the market with Power of the Dog and Focus tried making Belfast happen. People finally caught up to it after the nominations because they had already seen mostly everything by then and the word of mouth was still good. It's the most broadly crowdpleasing and emotional film to wide audience, and has the diversity aspect of deaf cast. Academy almost can't seem to resist the socially conscious indies as of late--it's why Power of the Dog failed. It wasn't an underdog you root for and had no real sociopolitical selling point, as well as lacking emotion. It did what it did because it was Campion's return to filmmaking. Belfast was more inorganic than CODA. West Side Story flopped and never overcame the remake stigma--plus, Spielberg is the biggest director ever and not someone you root for in an Oscar race. And King Richard was seen as a Will Smith vechicle only after it disappointed at box office. Dune was the sci-fi spectacle. Licorice Pizza the "weird but cool" artsy film. Drive My Car the international crossover. 

[grim22]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Netflix probably isn't going to win Best Picture until they figure out how to give their contenders a second wind during the heart of Oscar voting. The Power of the Dog still could take it, but it would be limping to the finish line at this point.

 

 

I saw a comment along these lines the year Parasite won-it was an October release but didn't play in 1,000+ theaters until late January. A streaming movie can't use that strategy, but maybe Netflix could use a lighter hand with their push? At least at the start, because it seems like Netflix goes pretty hard for months with their number one and voters are just over it by Oscar night.

 

Netflix also might want to go with movies that will be loved vs admired but deemed "cold" by the public and the less auteur-loving voters. It's less an issue of subject matter than tone. I bet their thought was that if they leaned super hard into Very Directed Cinematic Masterpieces, that AMPAS would be won over, despite the Netflix of it all. So far, they've ended up with movies the Academy hasn't really warmed to.

 

Competition is a part of it, too, sometimes the movie to admire can win if they don't really love anything else in the field. But that part of it is out of Netflix’s control.

This response

 

 

 

[Barnack]

I am not sure if stats mean nothing, but I feel that it is almost always a reverse causality.

 

Often could just be that when they love a movie they make him win BP and vote for it everywhere they can down the line, I do not think about best picture first, I vote down the line and then get influenced by that process to vote the moving in BP.

 

The movie can be really strong down the line without having any change at BP (a la Fury Road)

 

And the voters changed so much in the last 3 year's that even recent history can be similar to when sport analysis bring result between teams overtime that share 0 players/coach with today editions.

 

People can go so ridiculous with them, I remember seeing stuff like Birdman could have issue winning BP without a editing (a movie that took less than a week to edit) or other stuff of that sense.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Barnack

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

CODA and Don't Look Up won at the WGA Awards

 

Yikes

 

CODA locked the Oscar, but Original might end up going to Belfast. Licorice Pizza should have won the WGA and Belfast is still stronger than McKay. He doesn't need a 2nd Oscar for what's his weakest of recent 3 films

[dudalb]

11 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

CODA and Don't Look Up won at the WGA Awards

 

Yikes

 

CODA locked the Oscar, but Original might end up going to Belfast. Licorice Pizza should have won the WGA and Belfast is still stronger than McKay. He doesn't need a 2nd Oscar for what's his weakest of recent 3 films

Don't Look Up is pure "let give it to a movie that is not very good but we like it's message" reasoning..something I have always hated.

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

25 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Don't Look Up is pure "let give it to a movie that is not very good but we like it's message" reasoning..something I have always hated.

 

It’s possible which is weird because the movie didn’t do very well with awards anywhere. I argued it would miss DGA and was right. But I guess it’s important and high concept enough 

[filmlover]

lol how the momentum has suddenly shifted over the past few days. As Lenny Kravitz once sang, it ain't over 'till it's over.

 

Licorice Pizza is probably going home empty-handed at this point. Oh well.

Edited March 21, 2022 by filmlover

[TheDude391]

I think CODA's winning BP, which is a sentence I cannot believe I'm typing. I saw it last fall and it's fine? At the very least it doesn't come across like oscar bait or pretentious, it seems genuine enough but its such a whatever film. If it wins, it's going to get so much undeserved hate and will over time be like The Artist which won and was immediately forgotten about. Netflix losing after ALL of this campaigning and seeming to have it in the bag is very funny though, didn't Apple beat them to the punch at the Emmys as well?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, TheDude391 said:

I think CODA's winning BP, which is a sentence I cannot believe I'm typing. I saw it last fall and it's fine? At the very least it doesn't come across like oscar bait or pretentious, it seems genuine enough but its such a whatever film. If it wins, it's going to get so much undeserved hate and will over time be like The Artist which won and was immediately forgotten about. Netflix losing after ALL of this campaigning and seeming to have it in the bag is very funny though, didn't Apple beat them to the punch at the Emmys as well?

I think the problem with Netflix is the same everyone has already stated: they tend to promote their movies for big splashy streaming launches and then that's it. Rule of thumb tends to be that once the momentum is lost, there's no getting it back.

[Tarintino]

I dont know what went wring with Oscars. They used to be prestigious but nowadays most people avoid the oscar winners because they assume it must be shit

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 hours ago, Tarintino said:

I dont know what went wring with Oscars. They used to be prestigious but nowadays most people avoid the oscar winners because they assume it must be shit

People nowadays people have terrible taste and the movies that win are "indie" and not studio-wide because studios rarely make prestige films to the extent they did

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[grim22]

24 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

 

 

[ban1o]

LOL the people who run the oscars have no idea what they are doing. And they didn't invite Rachel Zegler lmao? It's weird how none of the stars of the films nominated for best pictures are presenters but so many random people are. 

[Joel M]

This is getting more desperate and sad with every day that passes. They are really chasing the mythical potential viewer that wasn't watching the oscars even when they actually had 40m viewership. 

 

Saddest thing of all is that if the ceremony somehow gets a small uptick in viewership, they 'll think it will be because of all the unbelievable bullshit they re pulling. Not because 2020 was a year that most people had no idea new movies were premiering and competing for awards in the midst of corona.

[Barnack]

18 minutes ago, ban1o said:

. And they didn't invite Rachel Zegler lmao?

 

With how much they exploded membership, having issue getting ticket will get ultra common I imagine

 

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-oscars-tickets-20180228-story.html

Over the past two years, most everyone has applauded the motion picture academy’s decision to add nearly 1,500 new industry professionals as a long-needed step toward diversifying the group’s ranks.

But the ever-increasing enrollment has created one small problem:

It’s almost impossible to get a ticket to the Oscars these days unless you’re willing to beg or engage in some serious wheeling and dealing.

 

And that was in 2018, got quite worst since.

 

The Studios get a bunch of invites more or less in line with the numbers of movie nominated, if WB did not give one to an major actor of a major Oscar movie, it is to them to ask why I think, not the academy.

 

Even paying member cannot all get an ticket now, they use a lottery.

 

If they knew WB would have not used an invited on her, maybe they could/should made her a presenter just to reserve her a ticket.

 

I would imagine that if we would take the time to look how are those agent/agency it would become clear what is going on (and what is gained by the Oscar), agency have quite the power.

[ban1o]

45 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

With how much they exploded membership, having issue getting ticket will get ultra common I imagine

 

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-oscars-tickets-20180228-story.html

Over the past two years, most everyone has applauded the motion picture academy’s decision to add nearly 1,500 new industry professionals as a long-needed step toward diversifying the group’s ranks.

But the ever-increasing enrollment has created one small problem:

It’s almost impossible to get a ticket to the Oscars these days unless you’re willing to beg or engage in some serious wheeling and dealing.

 

And that was in 2018, got quite worst since.

 

The Studios get a bunch of invites more or less in line with the numbers of movie nominated, if WB did not give one to an major actor of a major Oscar movie, it is to them to ask why I think, not the academy.

 

Even paying member cannot all get an ticket now, they use a lottery.

 

If they knew WB would have not used an invited on her, maybe they could/should made her a presenter just to reserve her a ticket.

 

I would imagine that if we would take the time to look how are those agent/agency it would become clear what is going on (and what is gained by the Oscar), agency have quite the power.

I'm sorry I didn't finish reading this but there is absolutely no reason the lead actress of a movie with 7 nominations should be overlook for a ticket lol. And it's Disney not WB. 

[ban1o]

I am so surprised that with their "chasing of younger audiences" They didn't announce actual ACTORS popular among young people. Like announce a Spider-man reunion??? Have Andrew Garfield perform a song from Tick Tick Boom? Is Timothee Chalamet busy? Zendaya? The Rock? Ryan Reynolds??  Heck even announcing the Squid Game cast makes more sense than a lot of these desperate announcements. Also did they ask Billie Eillish and Beyonce to perform?  

 

Maybe they tried and they all said no lol. 

 

I'm surprised the Williams sisters, who would actually make sense to present weren't announced. 

 

What they're doing is turning off a lot of their core audience. 

Edited March 21, 2022 by ban1o