IndustriousAngel Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 I think FB can reach 3mil with this weekend but it's not locked (mind, it's a 5-day weekend!) WbdH is locked for 3mil but it's dropping worse than in prior estimates so 4mil seem out of reach with this number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 (edited) Final Trend: FB 910k WOM seems great! About 825k for the Weekend, second after Dory's 875k (I hope that the $9,9M get $10M - I hoped for $10M ) WbdH 405k (-17%) 1,7M cume. Maybe next Weekend it can increase again... Trolls 110k (-11%) This movie seems to have great WOM! DS 105k (-46%) Strange drops harder and harder from Weekend to Weekend - but with FB arriving that's probably OK. JR2 100k (-40%/-45%) Petterson und Findus 65k (+6%) Dory 50k (-31%) 3,7M cume, so - what I didn't expect - it still can outgross Pets (3,8M) and Zoo (3,82M). Edited November 21, 2016 by Aristis 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 1 minute ago, Aristis said: Final Trend: FB 910k WOM seems great! About 825k for the Weekend, second after Dory's 875k WbdH 405k (-17%) 1,7M cume. Maybe next Weekend it can increase again... Trolls 110k (-11%) This movie seems to have great WOM! DS 105k (-46%) Strange drops harder and harder from Weekend to Weekend - but with FB arriving that's probably OK. JR2 100k (-40%/-45%) Petterson und Findus 65k (+6%) Dory 50k (-31%) 3,7M cume, so - what I didn't expect - it still can outgross Pets (3,8M) and Zoo (3,82M). That's amazing for FB. Especially considering how in 9/10 cases this year in Germany the final trend brought numbers down. I am expecting great legs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 Really nice that it's not behaving like a franchise entry, not frontloaded at all! In Austria, FB's start was a little bumpier, but still a safe #1. WbdH is much weaker in Austria, as is often the case with german comedies (and vice versa) so Austria's weekend was a little disappointing while Germany hat a rather good weekend with FB and WbdH both stronger than expected (still down from last year though) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 8 hours ago, Aristis said: Dory 50k (-31%) 3,7M cume, so - what I didn't expect - it still can outgross Pets (3,8M) and Zoo (3,82M). As if this is any consolation to our grave despair and grief. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolK Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 10 hours ago, Quigley said: As if this is any consolation to our grave despair and grief. IMO FD's OS run is pretty much inline with the film itself....MEDIOCRE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 (edited) Quote Den ersten Schätzungen nach erobert Phantastische Tierwesen ... ~ 910T Besucher. Das eigentliche Wochenende ist das zweitbeste, nach Umsatz des beste des Jahres. Willkommen bei den Hartmanns (ca. 405T) b...insgesant bislang über 1,7 Mio. Besucher. Trolls (ca. 110T) und Doctor Strange (ca. 105T) .... Jack Reacher - ... die 100T-Marke nur knapp verpasst hat. Pettersson & Findus - Da... (ca. 65T) .... Findet Dorie i... über der 50T-Marke. ....Estimates insgesamt bei 3,7 Mio. Besuchern und hat gute Chancen an Pets (3,8 Mio.) und Zoomania (3,82 Mio.) vorbeizuziehen. Die Top Ten steigerten sich gegenüber der Vorwoche um etwa 30 %, gegenüber dem gleichen Wochenende 47 im Vorjahr, als Mockingjay 2 mit 1.143.332 Besuchern zum Start die Charts angeführt hat, ging es um ca. 22 % runter. Estimates: Fantastic Beasts ~ 910k adm = 2nd best weekend, money-wist gest of the year local film Wilkommen... ~ 405k adm = over 1.7m adm. total Trolls 110k Doctor Stramge 105k Jack Reacher under 100k Petterson 65k Dory over 50k = ~ 3.7m adm. = good chances to get Pets and Zootopia Top 10 30% higher than last week, weekend #47 in comparison -22% (last year Mockingjay...) http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm from 21 November Edited November 22, 2016 by terrestrial 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Fantastic Beasts 826.697 767 1.078 911.486 9.464.134 - 1 2 Willkommen bei den Hartmanns 407.561 714 571 1.709.393 14.003.597 -16 3 3 Trolls 110.991 645 172 916.342 6.712.023 -9 5 4 Doctor Strange 104.718 479 219 1.301.850 14.294.257 -46 4 5 Jack Reacher 2 97.834 513 191 326.130 2.819.268 -41 2 6 Pettersson & Findus - Weihnachten 66.345 503 132 234.566 1.499.853 +8 3 7 Finding Dory 51.921 576 90 3.703.431 31.006.172 -28 8 8 Bridget Jones's Baby 45.831 478 96 1.117.715 9.550.594 -41 5 9 The Girl on the Train 38.809 370 105 446.933 3.839.861 -40 4 10 Inferno 38.695 382 101 1.465.452 12.869.695 -45 6 11 Tini - Violettas Zukunft 34.196 429 80 227.027 1.540.341 -19 3 12 Paterson 27.624 89 310 29.585 233.937 - 1 13 Café Society 24.420 135 181 79.802 631.562 -32 2 14 Burg Schreckenstein 20.978 428 49 295.800 1.858.013 -29 5 15 Storks 19.503 352 55 191.200 1.358.233 -31 4 16 Before I Wake 15.146 195 78 54.929 473.173 -50 2 17 Radio Heimat 14.689 125 118 25.616 183.651 - 1 18 Egon Schiele - Tod und Mädchen 14.302 84 170 18.706 140.298 - 1 19 Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children 11.453 193 59 842.587 8.313.688 -53 7 20 Bad Moms 7.811 133 59 1.276.737 10.455.613 -52 9 Fantastic Beasts had a good opening, most important: It had a good internal multiplier which should mean much better holds than we were used to from the Potter franchise. Among other openers, let's not forget Paterson - playing in less than 90 theaters, it had a fine PTA - Jarmusch is still a name you can rely upon. Among holdovers, Willkommen bei den Hartmanns is shining with another powerful hold - might reach 4mil total! While it was, overall, a fine weekend, this week's chart might also be titled "Franchises in Decline": FB didn't even reach 50% of the Potter films, Dory will not reach 4mil total (also a drop >50% from Nemo), Inferno is crawling towards 1,5mil total (the first two adaptions counted 5,6 resp. 4,6mil admissions, so a drop >70%) … even this year's Petterson&Findus is trailing the first one (though I have some hopes for its legs, with the xmas theme). Next weekend: The big opener is Arrival, which has ok reviews but no action and no Nolan - original SF without those ingredients is a tough sell in Germany, for now I'm pegging it at maybe 250k OW - but hopefully it can go higher! Also opening: Deepwater Horizon and Florence Foster Jenkins (I feel very little interest for both, too US-centric I think) and Bad Santa 2 (that one might have had a decent chance at 1mil total, but with WbdH already satisfying the comedy segment, I can't see that any longer). 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seduh Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Sorry but it's not fair to compare the situation of Finding Dory with Fantastic Beast. FD was a sequel, FB is a spin off with a whole new story. It's a very sucesfull opening, it could have been better, but also it could have been worse. Second biggest 3 day OW of the year, so a great start 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 52 minutes ago, seduh said: Sorry but it's not fair to compare the situation of Finding Dory with Fantastic Beast. FD was a sequel, FB is a spin off with a whole new story. It's a very sucesfull opening, it could have been better, but also it could have been worse. Second biggest 3 day OW of the year, so a great start Spin off or sequel ... there's a definite reason why WB produced FB and put 180mil USD into the project (not to mention marketing) - they are expanding the Potter franchise. I think everybody expected a drop from the HP films, but in Germany it seems to drop much harder than in the US or UK market. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 At my theater, the only of the four (semi-)wide openers doing at least half decent is Arrival; Deepwater has only about 1/3 of Arrival's bookings; BadSanta and FFJ are virtually empty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 How is FB holding up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 23, 2016 Author Share Posted November 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Noctis said: How is FB holding up? From what I'm seeing I'd say a 30% drop, rather good if true. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seduh Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 23 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Spin off or sequel ... there's a definite reason why WB produced FB and put 180mil USD into the project (not to mention marketing) - they are expanding the Potter franchise. I think everybody expected a drop from the HP films, but in Germany it seems to drop much harder than in the US or UK market. A lot of movies got huge budget these day (some very difficult to understand). Obiously WB has high hopes for FB but this is the firt movie of a new franchise that expands the Harry Potter Universe. It don´t have any of the characters of the HP movies (like the Hobbit) or explore part of the history of the HP film (like Rogue One will do), so it did great business. Let's see how it does in the next weeks, but i have a feeling it's not gona behave as frontloaded as HP films Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 (edited) On 22/11/2016 at 10:15 PM, IndustriousAngel said: Spin off or sequel ... there's a definite reason why WB produced FB and put 180mil USD into the project (not to mention marketing) - they are expanding the Potter franchise. I think everybody expected a drop from the HP films, but in Germany it seems to drop much harder than in the US or UK market. 2016 isn't a good year for Germany's boxoffice(at least for Big movies) Zootopia is the number 1 of 2016 with 3.8mio admissions... Edited November 23, 2016 by efialtes76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 (edited) The Thursday estimates (very early taken this week) via insidekino.de (forum): New Releases: Arrival: 18.5k (starts in 397 theaters, very good reviews) - if this number holds it will be impossible to reach 250k I think but at least it is no disaster as DH Deepwater Horizon: 3.5k (358, good to very good reviews) - not that I expected much but this is still surprisingly bad Florence Foster Jenkins: 4k (170, ok to very good reviews) Bad Santa 2: 1k (138, a few mediocre reviews) Holdovers: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: 44.5k (last Thursday: 95k) – pretty ok and probably - because it's clearly an evening film - underestimated Willkommen bei den Hartmanns: 32.5k Jack Reacher 2: 6k (13k) Doctor Strange: 5.5k (13k) Bridget Jones's Baby: 5k (7k) Girl on the Train: 1.5k (5k) So with the exception of Arrival no good start for the newcomers. FB and Hartmanns should hold well. Edited November 24, 2016 by el sid 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 1. Trend for the upcoming weekend Quote Trend:Phantastische Tierwesen ... (FB) ... #1 in it's 2nd WE ~ 525k admissions (1.65m in 11 days). local Willkommen bei den Hartmanns, #2 .... 4th WE ~ 275k admissions = total 2.1m adm. = most successful local film of the year new release #1 Arrival, ~ 160k adm.Trolls (65k) Florence Foster Jenkins, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange, Jack Reacher, and Pettersson & Findus seem to have to fight for who will end on #5 as usal insidekino.de 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 25, 2016 Author Share Posted November 25, 2016 that's really a disaster for most new releases, at least Arrival does some business but also less than I hoped for. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Is that good for FB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 25, 2016 Author Share Posted November 25, 2016 19 minutes ago, Noctis said: Is that good for FB? This would be a drop in the 35% range, a beet steeper than I hoped but obviously the whole weekend is not that good so I'd say it's an ok drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...